Perse's Forex Trading Log

[simplegreen]

perse..a good entry using my Pincher setup has been the only troubling aspect...a good pincher setup has high success rate but I have still been a bit off on a few trades on initial entry.I think I now have that cured by making a parameter change on the top and bottom MACDs...leave the middle set as is.Change from MACD(8,17,9) to (6,13,2) on the top one and bottom one...this allows one to see an Pincher fully developed as well as easily spot the upside or downside divergences begin.Give that a try and I think you'll be well pleased.

[perse]

Trade #11 - NZD/JPY (Short) (cont)

SL moved to +180 pips
TP moved to +368 pips

[perse]

SG - I don't think the strategy I was working with is promising on a long term consistent basis. I began by looking at a couple of months worth of charts and things looked good. As soon as I started forward testing with small lot sizes things just seemed too 'random'... a lot of whipsawing and such.

If you don't mind, I'd like to start looking at maybe testing the Pincher setup with various risk/reward ratios and such, going back in time and then forward.

When confirming divergence, do you wait for a candle to close before entering?

[simplegreen]

YW perse...its pretty amazing ...I agree..I think I've been really blessed to have come up with that setup...its really been a major technical breakthrough IMO and has been good enough to make FOREX trading almost easy.My time frame preference is 5 minute BTW and if you patiently await a good Pincher and wait for divergence to begin on the Pincher setup then it should pay off nicely for you..it does for me.I know theres no holy grail...but this sure comes close!Just be sure and await the technical condition and ignore the price level..DONT trade the price..just the technicals.

[perse]

Hi SG, I thought I'd let you know that I took the time to download the true MACD and look at some of your posted charts. Just glancing a bit at the past without doing any serious back testing, this setup looks AMAZING...thank you!

[perse]

May 4 AM Breakout

... but on that note, given a possible reversal, I have put in an entry order this morning going long on the GPP/JPY. Nice double bottom and the 1st retracement going up may have finished. I'm not going to enter until it breaches the most recent high. SL is swing low on retracement. 2 lots again (1:1 and 2:1)

Here is how it looks...



Okay, I'm off to work now.

[perse]

May 3 Breakout

Last night I set up 2 entry orders. One for the GBP/USD to go short and another for the GBP/JPY to also go short. Lot 1 was 1:1 while lot 2 was 2:1.

Neither were hit as a reversal seemed to materialize. Am I disappointed? Not at all. The entries are just as much about keeping me out as they are about getting me in.

Here are charts to show what my intentions were. Vertical line marks where I put in my orders.

GBP/JPY



GBP/USD

[perse]

Changes to my breakout strategy:

I still plan to test this strategy over the next couple of months. However, I realized very quickly that I needed to make changes to my risk/reward ratio. I was working with an approximate 1:2 ratio on my 1st lot. Trading with such a ratio means that your win/loss probability needs to be quite high. 2/6 wins on May 3 led me to believe that it wasn't as high as I needed it to be. Meanwhile, my 2nd lot was controlled by a dynamic stop of 20 pips that had a tendency to stop out my trades prematurely. Metaphorically speaking, in attempting to ride the wave I was getting caught in the ripples.

In changing things a bit, I'm going to look at only 2 pairs for a while - GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. I like the movement of both these pairs. Six pairs were a bit too much for me time wise and my wife was getting impatient!

I'm set the SL to 30 pips + the spread. I'm still buying two lots; TP1 is 30 pips (1:1) while TP2 is 60 pips (2:1). The latter automatically moves SL to break even once 30 pips is hit.

Lastly, I'm only going to create entry orders in the direction of the trend on a H4 chart. Here, I'm simply determining trend direction by whether the pair is trading above the 200MA (up trend) or below (down trend).

Okay, that's it for now.

[perse]

Trade #11 - NZD/JPY (Short)

This pair is FINALLY starting to move south. I may move my SL and TP points in a day or too if it continues.

[perse]

This is a story I too am very familiar with. I wish I can say I haven't followed the path at all (or even only once). No, I've done it, said I wouldn't do it again, and then guess what? I follow the same path. I'm really trying to work on my discipline. Admittedly, it's not easy.

I think we'll be okay if we can above all remember to follow good money management technique (though I have been guilty of straying from that as well).

[Qui-Gon Kagi]

I've got an eye appointment that I need to leave for here but I want to mention something that's been on my mind regarding the "breakout". A month ago when I took my first A/U short position, I took the position just below the strong resistance line on the daily chart which was set by the prior to price highs of November 5th 2010 and December 30 2010. First mistake I made was not waiting for the resistance line to get hit before taking the short. I was already 100 pips too early. The waiting is the hardest part as TTR just mentioned. The second mistake I made was believing the price might turn around anyway even after piercing through the daily resistance. The third and greatest mistake I made was not taking the small loss, even at 100 pips versus waiting it out as I did for over 700 pips currently. A fourth mistake might be considered that where I went short, I should have gone long. Once the trade failed by piercing the line of resistance, I would be up some 700 pips now instead of down those pips had I gone long and held for this full month later.

Ok, so had I had the macd pincher visual to go by, I'd not have taken the initial short. Had I observed the relatively shallow distance to the quad tunnel on the daily chart, I'd not have gone short when I did. And just because the price was knocking on the upper bollinger line on the daily chart, there was no reason to assume that the bollinger would provide even a pullback, much less a reversal. Foolish trade looking back at it. Foolish.

So my the point of my post is this.....once the price moved above the line of resistance, that line became support and I should have gone long, using the line of resistance as the begining of a place to set a stop loss trigger depending on however much I was willing to lose based on lot size. Second point is this.....even if the price has moved up 600 pips from the quad tunnel on the daily, it can still move up another 600 pips or more on a "breakout"! Ok, I've made my point I think. Now to set it in my memory..

Alright, I'm off and away for a couple hours.

[perse]

Not so much for the strategy I'm using - just the smaller details (TP and SL points). I do like the concept of a breakout strategy. Here, I'm trying to set up entry trades, then sleep on it while they execute. I just need to be able to give the trade a little breathing room so I don't get stopped out on minor fluctuations.

I don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater!

I do like your philosophy on letting the trade come to you and not vice versa. Thank you!

[tickettoride]

why ? whats not working for you ?

one of the things i learned was waiting for the trade im not alway in a trade
waiting is a lot harder than you think

[perse]

thanks tickettoride... I think I may be going back to the drawing board sooner than later on this one!

[perse]

May 2 Breakout

3/12 wins, -117 pips

Okay, this has not been a great start to this strategy...

Two of the pairs (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY) had huge moves that I should have been able to easily ride down. These would have been captured by Lot 2, which had a trailing SL of 20 pips. I have to either increase the SL to give more breathing room or else reconsider the use of a dynamic SL.

GBP/JPY (Lot 1 = 11.9 pips; Lot 2 = 2.4)



GBP/USD (Lot 1 = 12.3 pips; Lot 2 = -8.9)



The other pairs didn't do as well. Hmmm... I may have to give this a bit of tweaking!!!

EUR/USD (Lot 1 = -20.2 pips; Lot 2 = -12.8)



USD/JPY (Lot 1 = -20.1 pips; Lot 2 = -19)



USD/CHF (Lot 1 = -20.4 pips; Lot 2 = -9.9)



EUR/JPY (Lot 1 = -20.1 pips; Lot 2 = -12.3)

[tickettoride]

hello perse
will have to watch and see how it works out for you

[perse]

Thanks simplegreen... my plan is to forward test for two months using 6 currencies, entering data in a spreadsheet I've created, and then possibly filtering future entries based on a couple of factors. I just need to determine whether there are any correlations first.

All is done using 1K lot sizes on a micro account. Not a lot of harm to be done.

In the meantime, I might just have to come by and say hello!

[simplegreen]

perse..I have been meaning to stop by for a long time..am usually just so busy but today I had a few spare moments and thought you might be interested in our latest Pincher setup.I understand the problems faced in FOREX by being unable to trade at quality times..most face that problem..one must try to find a window that can be traded around personal schedules...London session is best but most with day jobs cannot trade it....the overlap period can be quite good tho from 7AM CDT to 11 AM CDT although I think it wise to stay away from news releases so smartest overlap period would then be abt 7:45AM CDT to 11 AM CDT...IOW be on the side around 7:30 AM.
Let me know how things turn out on your breakout trading ideas and I hope it goes well for you and if it does then feel free to share your ideas on the Green Room board...we would welcome you anytime.

[perse]

Hi simplegreen... first of all, I just want to say I'm honoured that you would choose to visit my board. This has really made my day! I read every single entry that you and others post on Simple's Green Room. I'm humbled by the amount of experience that is collectively contained in that group. I'm not an active participant but I certainly am a participant. I must admit I'm pretty shy. I'm been looking at your latest pincher setup. My biggest problem is my day job takes me out of trading during times of high liquidity. I've tried waking up and trading from 4-6am MST. It's just tough.

I've been trying to develop another approach that would allow me to trade daily and also sleep well. It's simply based on taking advantage of breakouts after times of consolidation (or less liquidity). No indicators - just price action. I'm very excited about it. I will be writing more shortly in my Ibox. It's very systematic - I enter the same number of trades each night in the same way. No emotion at all. And yes... I know there's no holy grail in Forex trading... but, if I can grab a handle on probability and risk/reward, I might be able to at least discover a cup that doesn't leak (too much)!

If successful, I will definitely share with your group and perhaps seek some suggestions for improvement.

We'll talk soon simplegreen...


perse

[simplegreen]

Good afternoon perse..thought I would drop by your board and say howdy as well as letting you know that my Pincher setup now is vastly superior to the earlier designs I made..its based strictly on multiple MACDs but you will need MT4 charting to build it.Thats easily done if you dont have MT4..just open an Oanda demo that has MT4 charting available.I know of no other chart program that has software that will let you build the new Pincher design..heres a link to a recent post I made that shows the Pincher setup in action.I thought you might want it since you have referenced my earlier design in your Ibox.BTW if you find the time stop by our board and visit...you're welcome anytime...Simple

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62621903

[perse]

May 1 Breakout

2/4 wins, -20 pips

[perse]

Okay... I'm going to try something a bit different. It's a system based on the breakout of a box. I know this is a theme that is common in some circles, often around the opening of the London or New York sessions.

Anyway, this is similar to that. I will post details a bit later when I have time. I started it last night. Entry orders will be set up each night. Next post will reveal last night's results.

[perse]

Scalping - April 27 AM

Traded the G/J this morning

1 out of 3 trades for a total LOSS of 55 pips. I don't think I'm a big fan of 5am trading... not a great start to the day!

[perse]

Scalping - April 26 PM

Traded U/J, G/J and E/C (stubborn!)

3 out of 4 trades for a total of 20 pips.

[perse]

Trade #11 - NZD/JPY (Short)

NZD/JPY, short 2K at 9:40pm

Entry: 65.328
SL: 66.753 (swing high)(142 pips)
TP: 62.502(2:1 PL) (282 pips)(tentative)*


*In all likelihood, I will move my SL and TP if the pair starts to fall so that I can ride the movement down and lock in profits at the same time.

[perse]

Scalping - April 25 PM

Traded E/U and G/J

7 out of 8 trades for a total of 71 pips.

[perse]

Scalping - April 19 PM

0/1 for the night on the E/J for a loss of 14 pips.

[perse]

Trade #10 - NZD/JPY (Short)

Hit SL for 78 pip gain.

[perse]

Scalping - April 19 AM

A big 0/3 this morning... loss of 23 pips. I think I redeemed myself after yesterday's carelessness. At least today I controlled my losses well.

[perse]

Trade #10 - NZD/JPY (Short)

SL moved to 65.513 (78 pips locked in)

[perse]

Scalping - April 18 PM

Traded E/J and N/J

5 out of 6 trades for a total of 40 pips.

Even though the numbers look good, I'm disappointed in myself for not cutting my losses earlier and regrouping when I should have. Instead, I averaged up (going short). Ultimately, I came out on top. However, I hate the feeling of being out of control like that. Just when I thought I had it...

I'll be back in the morning.

[perse]

Okay, closed the 3K for a 14.6 pip gain. I'll add to today's scalping session

[perse]

Trade #10 - NZD/JPY (Short)(Added)

Added 3K at 4:16pm

Entry: 64.979

Simply added on the retracement

[perse]

Scalping - April 18 AM

I sat at the computer from 430-530am. I did not enter any trades. The ADX was more or less flatlining. That suits me just fine. These are good opportunities to learn that it's important not to enter trades just for the sake of entering trades.

By the way, my 2 longer term trades are progressing nicely. It looks like the USD/CHF may stop out if the retracement continues That would be a 192 pip lock in. The NZD/JPY is coming down nicely as planned. If this continues I'll start moving my SL to lock in profits as I ride down.

[perse]

Scalping - April 17 PM Snapshots

Traded E/J and E/U

3 out of 5 trades for a total of 17.5 pips. Not a lot of liquidity tonight.

[perse]

Scalping - April 17 PM

Traded E/J and E/U

3 out of 5 trades for a total of 17.5 pips.

[perse]

In addition to my posted trades here using the D1/H1 setup, I have been taking the time to learn a bit more about scalping. In fact, I've found the simplegreen board to be very helpful in terms of ideas and commentary.

One method that has caught my eye is simplegreen's pincher setup. It consists of setting up the ADX/DMI indicator, waiting for the ADX line to go up above 50 and either the +DI or -DI to fall below 10. As it crosses back up, if both DIs are seen to be converging, enter long if it's the +DI crossing up and short if it's the -DI crossing up. I've been using the MACD (12,26,9) as a way to confirm entry. I've been scalping using the M1 chart.

Anyway, I've been trading about an hour in the evenings (10-11pm) and an hour in the mornings (5-6am). So far, the mornings seem to be better as there's more liquidity. I've been following my money management rules and have done quite well for the last couple of weeks.

There are definitely some pairs that are better than others. My favorites are the EUR/JPY are EUR/CHF. I find that those pairs often offer a big enough range on the M1 charts to squeeze 10 to 20 pips in a short period of time. We'll see if that continues.

I'm going to try and remember to post snapshots following each trading session.

[perse]

Trade #10 - NZD/JPY (Short)

NZD/JPY, short 2K on April 15

Entry: 66.292
SL: 67.006 (swing + 30 pips)(71 pips)
TP: 64.005(1:1 PL) (228 pips)(tentative)*

Reason for trade: This is a pincher play on the D1 chart

*In all likelihood, I will move my SL and TP if the pair starts to fall so that I can ride the movement down and lock in profits at the same time.

[perse]

Trade #9 - USD/CHF (continued)

So far this has been a good trade. I've changed my exit strategy a bit. I've been wanting to ride the trend on this. I do expect it to make lower lows. What I've done is move my SL to the top of the previous days candle... well 2 days ago (April 13) while things are consolidating a bit. So far I'm ahead 257 pips. SL is set at 193 pips for now.

[perse]

Trade #9 - USD/CHF (Short)

Okay, we're going to try this again. This time it appears that the retracement is complete and the pair is starting to resume its trend downwards.

USD/CHF, short 2K @ 10:29pm EST

Entry: 0.91841
SL: 0.93508 (swing on closed candle + 11 pips)[I wanted to set my SL above the psychological barrier of 0.9250] (167 pips)
TP: 0.90164(1:1 PL) (168 pips)

[perse]

Trade #8 - USD/CHF (SL hit)

Clearly, the retracement wasn't over. The NFP report really boosted the USD this morning. I'll continue watching for now.

[perse]

Trade #8 - USD/CHF (Short)

USD/CHF, short 2K @ 11:07am EST

Entry: 0.91608
SL: 0.92600 (swing on closed candle + 16 pips)[I wanted to set my SL above the psychological barrier of 0.9250] (99 pips)
TP: 0.90486(1:1 PL) (112 pips)

Reason for entry: The USD/CHF seems to be one of the more steady trends looking at the 1D chart. It's been retracing for nearly 2 weeks. I've been waiting patiently here for signs that the retracement is nearly completion. It may be the case.

[perse]

It has been awhile... starting up again here. I'll try to keep the log going on a regular basis.

[perse]

Trade #7 closed - TP hit

Here's a snapshot of the trade...

[perse]

Trade #5/2

I'm still in this trade from earlier this week


This evening I did the following...

1. Tightened SL on first lot from 1.0320 to 1.02391

2. Purchased another 1k @ 6:54 pm

Entry: 1.01152
SL: 1.02391 (123.9 pips)
TP: 1.00030 (112.2 pips)

[perse]

Trade #4/2

I'm still in this trade from earlier this week

Specifics are here...

USD/JPY, short 1K @ 8:04pm EST

Entry: 84.368
SL: 86.02 (swing + 10 pips) (165.2 pips)
TP: 82.748 (basic 1:1 PL) (162 pips)


This evening I did the following...

1. Tightened SL on first lot from 86.017 to 85.050

2. Purchased another 1k @ 6:46 pm

Entry: 83.956
SL: 85.050 (109.4 pips)
TP: 83.050 (90.6 pips)

This trade is still looking good. SSI is still very high.