Paul's Trades

[nosheep]

paul look at hill
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=HILL,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pc20!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!La3,6,9]&am...

[Paul Fakler]

Out smh @ 43. No bounce.

[Paul Fakler]

Long SMH @ 42.99 for DCB. Stop @ 42.89.

[Paul Fakler]

Covered QQQ @ 35.43 (-.01)

[Paul Fakler]

Covered SMH @ 42.66

[Paul Fakler]

Short SMh @ 43.21. Starting to lighten up on long positions as well.

[Paul Fakler]

Short QQQ @ 35.42.

[Myself °¿°]

that worked

[Paul Fakler]

Covered both QQQs @ 32.54

[WinLoseOrDraw]

ditto! hope you get a good exit because that would line up with nicely with a long signal i'm seeing on the horizon.

[Paul Fakler]

Thanks. (I should have had a smiley face after that comment :).

Good luck tomorrow!

[WinLoseOrDraw]

i'd never call someone's trades stupid. :( that would imply a knowledge of the future i cannot claim to possess. i meant brave as in "i had the signal, but wouldn't pull the trigger".

[Paul Fakler]

Did you mean brave or stupid? I am expecting a minor crap by 10:30 am tomorrow. I will cover both positions early tomorrow morning if they are not in the money.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

shorting into a pre-holiday friday...brave!

[Paul Fakler]

Short 2nd QQQ @ 33.08

[Paul Fakler]

Short 1 QQQ @ 32.85

[Myself °¿°]

And charts 1.32796685 Pure QQQ P/C Ratio Open Int
This is what happened yesterday
4142129 Calls
5500610 Puts
34457 more calls
127280 more puts

[Myself °¿°]

posted this yesterday but now the good news is pretty strong
Posted by: BULLarkey
In reply to: None Date:8/20/2003 11:51:22 AM
Post #of 147

2) QQQ Gaps pending…bottom of gaps are 31.90 & 31.15
I thought we would push to 32.7? today…thinking back on it now, yesterday the 15, 30 and 60 min charts were way over bought.
32.7? is looking more realistic now but keeping an eye on those gaps…If we head for those gaps after tagging 32.70 on flat or bad economic news, that would freak out the majority myself included, creating panic and I will have to remind myself we just made a new high on bad consumer sentiment numbers.

P/C ratio does not tell the whole story
QQQ Pure P/C does not tell the whole story but something I have been looking at is the total Daily Open Int. change.

Yesterday
1.244715741 Pure QQQ P/C Ratio Open Int
3956231 Calls
4924383 Puts
89448 more calls than yesterday
132779 more puts than yesterday and the market went down today

day b4 that
1.239170649 Pure QQQ P/C Ratio Open Int
3866783 Total Calls
4791604 Total Puts
82378 more calls than yesterday and the market went up yesterday
12642 more puts than yesterday

day b4 that
1.26280406 Pure QQQ P/C Ratio Open Int
3784405 Total Calls
4778962 Total Puts
623650 less calls than Friday “Expiration”
1036161 less puts than Friday “Expiration” over a million puts left after expiration and what happened to the market after expiration.

The QQQ 60 min chart shows a white candle above the previous high so we have pierced it…we are resetting 15 and 30 min charts. The Question is do we completely reset the 60min chart B4 heading back up………ha ha ha ha ha the nasd is now green

[Paul Fakler]

Yup. Probably be whipsawed by tommorrow afternoon, because that's the way it goes... We're already 40-50 points higher than I thought we'd go. This could go up another 30 points just on momentum.

[Myself °¿°]

kinda early for that isn't it?....Oh you mean your max pain

[Paul Fakler]

Yes, ouch indeed :(. Max pain was reached and I had to step back and re-evaluate.

[Myself °¿°]

Ouch!

[Paul Fakler]

Covered all on retrench. QQQ covered @ 32.36 & SMH covered @ 34.82. I think we go up for another day. Market is way too strong for me to be short on anything here.

[Paul Fakler]

Short 1 QQQ @ 31.13 again.

[Paul Fakler]

Covered QQQ after hours @ 30.75 (+0.38) Looks like I covered a bit early, but you can never tell what will happen overnight.

Still short SMH.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

i already covered. -g- hoping for an AH dell pop to reshort.

[Paul Fakler]

We're closing too strong for my tastes. Probably close the QQQs in a bit.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

another brave soul shorting near EOD. i put on a dow short a few minutes ago, good luck to both of us.

[Paul Fakler]

Short 1 QQQ @ 31.13

[Paul Fakler]

Short 1 SMH @ 32.60. Pray for me...

[Paul Fakler]

Hi Lisa. Sorry for the late reply, I was busy this afternoon.

Several reasons to be trading in gold stocks:

1) I like to trade in several sectors & gold stocks is currently one of them. When I trade mainly in one sector I sometimes find myself taking positions that I probably should not (doubling up inappropriately, etc...). When I am in more sectors I tend to focus on where I am trading successfully.

2) Gold has not had a blowoff top in a long time. If this should happen gold stocks will explode. In any case POG is on an uptrend & possibly could exceed $450 sometime in the next year. Buying gold stocks at support & holding therefore "seems" less risky than with tech stocks.

3) Gold stocks are volatile, so I can allocate a smaller percentage of my assets to them & still achieve good returns. (i.e. even if a large percentage of my trading account is cash because I am waiting to enter a different sector because I haven't been trading well there ;(.

4) Let's just say that I don't expect the economy to do really well until 2005. If we are lucky the 2nd half of 2004 will be good. Until the economy shows sustained growth POG will not suffer for more than a few months.

Note: I am currently flat on gold stocks. I sold out last week... a bit prematurely. I expect gold stocks to remain strong for several more weeks, but took profits anyway.

[LisaAu]

I'm trying to learn about that sector.

What are you fond of in the Gold area, Paul?

[Paul Fakler]

A bit. I've done much better in gold stocks this year than the ETFs :).

[Myself °¿°]

Whew!!!!That brought things back around for ya:)

[Paul Fakler]

Sold both QQQ positions @ 30.52

[Paul Fakler]

Long 2nd QQQ @ 29.99

[Paul Fakler]

Sold 2nd QQQ @ 30.40

[Paul Fakler]

Long QQQ @ 30.11

[Paul Fakler]

Long QQQ @ 30.86.

[Paul Fakler]

Out at 31.35.

[Paul Fakler]

Long QQQ @ 31.44

[Chris McConnel]

Just blame it on the e-minis! -g-

[Paul Fakler]

Can I call them wrong lately, or what!

[Paul Fakler]

Covered QQQ @ 32.63. Looks like a short covering rally coming up to close the day.

[Paul Fakler]

Short QQQ @ 32.70

[Paul Fakler]

Covered QQQ @ 31.83

[Paul Fakler]

Short QQQ @ 31.90 for a short term trade. Any buying now looks like it will be met with increased selling, at least for the next hour.

[Paul Fakler]

Covered SMH @ 31.30

[Paul Fakler]

Long SMH @ 31.08

[Paul Fakler]

Covered @ 32.10 (-.48)