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PEAK OIL - EPOCHAL EVENT OF OUR LIVES

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 The title of this board, Peak Oil - Epochal Event of Our Lives, purposely includes the word epochal, meaning without parallel.

Why will Peak Oil be without parallel?

Look at past events in the Middle East, which interrupted the supply of oil throughout the world and especially in the United States. These disruptions were geopolitical events and were ultimately resolved with diplomacy.

Peak Oil, on the other hand, will be a geological event, something that mankind has never faced before and certainly cannot control.  It will inevitably occur when world oil production has reached its maximum capacity, as oil is a finite resource.

Illustrated below is Hubbert's Curve, which shows the growth, peak, and decline of worldwide, regional, and individual  wells. This sequence continues to occur as world population dramatically increases and as Asia, in particular, accelerates its industrialization and its citizenry expands car ownership.


HUBBERT CURVE
Regional Vs Individual Wells



Peak Oil will adversely affect many aspects of our lives. For example, over the last 100 years, gas powered engines have contributed to the discovery and expansion of the automobile and airplane industries. Recently the population of the United States reached 300 million and vehicles now total 225 million. Future population growth, with a corresponding increase in vehicles, will further deplete oil supplies.

Agriculture has changed from numerous labor and animal-intensive family farms to a machine-intensive industry primarily controlled by corporations. Further, much of the increased productivity of farm soil emanates from petroleum-based fertilizers.

Transportation  and agriculture are just two segments of society that must adjust to prospective oil declines. The critical question is how will our entire society adjust to a worldwide oil scarcity.

M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist, predicted in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak between 1965 to 1970. In hindsight, it did peak in 1970.

Mr. Hubbert's warning was given, yet it has been largely ignored. Oil discoveries and plentiful oil reserves in Alaska and the North Sea made many people complacent. In addition, new technologies were developed, so that oil was sucked up from the earth as if by giant straws. Although oil was abundant in the 1980's and 1990's, reserves in this century are in demonstrable decline.

China, in particular, recognizes the potential shortage of oil. It canvasses the world making oil deals to secure its energy future. It is also currently building 30 nuclear reactors and 7 hydroelectric dams to supplement its energy needs.

Sadly, the United States lingers behind. Its attitude seems to be that oil will always be abundant, probably because it has been in the past. Even with the dramatic crude oil price increases of the past three years, there still is a reluctance to confront this potential problem.

PURPOSE OF THIS BOARD

One purpose of this board is to provide I-Hub members with a repository of Peak Oil articles. Hopefully these will stimulate interest in the topic and I invite readers to post their thoughts.

Another important purpose of this board is to help people in preparing for or coping with the Peak Oil event. To this end, various links by category have been supplied below.

Good luck!

sumisu

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TABLE OF CONTENTS :

  • GETTING READY FOR PEAK OIL & SUSTAINABLE LIVING
    PEAK OIL  READING LIST FROM JIM PUPLAVA  
    PEAK OIL SITES, BLOGS, & ORGANIZATIONS 
    NARRATIVE LINKS
    M. KING HUBBERT
    ROBERT L. HIRSCH
    MATT SIMMONS
    PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER
    CONGRESSMAN ROSCOE BARTLETT 
    NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC ON PEAK OIL
    OTHER AUDIOS & VIDEOS
    TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERATIONS 
    COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS & NEW URBANISM  
    OTHER NATIONS - STATUS FOR PEAK OIL  
    OIL & RESOURCE WARS 
    CANTARELL OIL FIELD & DEPLETION
    EXPORT LAND MODEL  
    CHARTS AND ILLUSTRATIONS OF INTEREST
    ASSOCIATED BOARDS

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GETTING READY FOR PEAK OIL & SUSTAINABLE LIVING

A companion #board-9881 titled "SUSTAINABLE LIVING FOR CHALLENGING TIMES" was spun off from this board to provide an archive of postings and sources of information which will aid individuals and communities to adopt and survive in a world of declining energy resources.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PEAK OIL READING LIST FROM JIM PUPLAVA

  http://www.financialsense.com/resources/peakoil.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PEAK OIL SITES, BLOGS, & ORGANIZATIONS

Peak Oil Clock http://sydneypeakoil.com/peak_oil_clock/

ASPO - USA http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=35

ASPO - INTERNATIONALhttp://www.peakoil.net

Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth S. Deffeyes http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/index.html

Dry Dipstick http://www.drydipstick.com

Energy Balance http://tinyurl.com/42awvh

Energy Bulletin
http://www.energybulletin.net/

Energy Bulletin: Peak Oil Primer and Links http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Energy Outlook http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/

Global Public Media - Public Service Broadcasting For A Post Carbon World http://globalpublicmedia.com/

Life After the Oil Crash http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

National Petroleum Council http://www.npc.org

NEI Nuclear Notes http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/

Peak Oil Design http://peakoildesign.com/

Peak Oil News & Message Boards http://www.peakoil.com/

PLENTY http://www.plentymag.com/

Post Carbon Institute http://www.postcarbon.org/

Simmons & Company International http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

The Coming Global Oil Crisis http://www.oilcrisis.com

The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/

The View From The Peak http://www.theviewfromthepeak.net

  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NARRATIVE LINKS

Peak Oil FAQ
#msg-33046927

Peak Oil Report by Peak Oil Associates International #msg-32147901

Evolutionary psychology and peak oil #msg-30634038

Roscoe Bartlett Discusses His Special Order Speeches #msg-29893771

OIL SHOCK AND ENERGY TRANSITION by Andrew McKillop, May 7, 2008 #msg-29196735

Energy Bull Market Fundamentals Remain Strong, Chris Puplava, 2008 http://tinyurl.com/5nze3h

The Truth About Oil  by  Vasko Kohlmayer,  05 08 08  http://tinyurl.com/3guotj

The Gospel According to Matthew, by Mimi Swartz, 02/01/08 #msg-26286577

Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil, Matt Simmons, Nov 2007
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf

Megaprojects update: Just how close to Peak Oil are we? 10/18/07 Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre http://tinyurl.com/33rl3q

Crisis, what energy crisis? Euan Mearns, The Oil Drum: Europe. 07/03/07 Over 50 links to Oil Drum articles from the past year are provided which combined provide a comprehensive overview of the issues surrounding peak oil and energy decline. http://www.energybulletin.net/31608.html

On the Precipice: Energy Security & Economic Stability on the Edge - by Daniel Davis 07/17/07 http://www.aspo-usa.com/assets/documents/Danny_Davis_On_the_Precipice.pdf

Evolutionary psychology and peak oil: A Malthusian inspired "heads up" for humanity. by Dr. Michael E. Mills http://www.drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm

Peak oil: Facts converge with theory http://tinyurl.com/2gtud4

11 incontrovertible truths of oil production & peak oil arguments by PeakEngineer, 05/23/07 #msg-19902674

Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room, © Copyright 2007, Paul Chefurka http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html

CRUDE OIL Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production, GAO Report, 03/29/07 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

DIE OFF - a population crash resource page http://www.dieoff.com/index.html

Portland, Oregon City Council unanimously creates a peak oil task force - 05/10/06 http://www.portlandpeakoil.org/

Testimony before the Australian Senate by Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), 07/11/06 http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S9515.pdf

The Hirsch Report - February 2005 #msg-10310387

The Financial Sense Energy Resource Page http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm

Financial Sense Big Picture Archive http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/2006.html

OIL: A TRAVELOGUE OF ADDICTION by Chicago Tribune, 07/29/06 (Suggested viewing: Open link and click on Watch documentary, left-hand column). http://tinyurl.com/h78ve

Exploring emotional reactions to peak oil by Kathy McMahon http://www.energybulletin.net/19718.html

Denial Of Energy Crisis Is A Conditioned Response, By Dave Wheelock #msg-25561271

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  M. KING HUBBERT



Hubbert peak theory From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

A Tribute To M. King Hubbert http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/

Outlook for Fuel Reserves http://www.mkinghubbert.com/files/hubbert_1974.pdf

Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, 1956 Published on 8 Mar 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 8 Mar 2006. http://www.energybulletin.net/13630.html

Shell Execs Briefed on Peak Oil in 1956

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AS A TRANSIENT PHENOMENON IN HUMAN HISTORY
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/wwf1976/

Are we at the peak of oil production?
#msg-39230370#msg-29389791

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ROBERT L. HIRSCH




The Hirsch Report - February 2005
#msg-10310387

Robert L. Hirsch from Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_L._Hirsch

Robert Hirsch - Peak Oil Video -
#msg-33832912

FSN: Energy Roundtable: Jim Puplava, Matthew Simmons, Robert L. Hirsch, & Jeffrey G. Rubin Discussion - 02/02/08 http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/2008/0202.html



Dr. Robert Hirsch: "We Are Staring Directly Into An Energy Storm in The Next 2-3 Years"
#msg-69993495
 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MATT SIMMONS

Simmons & Company web site
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

Book Review:
Twilight in the Desert - The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
Read more: http://blogcritics.org/books/article/book-review-twilight-in-the-desert/#ixzz0nXMuOsbg

Peak Oil Solution: The Simmons Plan

http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/02/10/peak-oil-solution-the-simmons-plan/

Presentation at 2006 Boston World Oil Conference, 10/26/2006

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102#

PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER

President Carter's Address to the Nation On Energy Policy (April 18, 1977) Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y6pPF_lzsU

Transcript: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/filmmore/ps_energy.html

Energy Policy and Conservation Executive Order 12003, July 20th, 1977
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7842

Carter's Brave Vision on Energy by David Morris, Monday, October 10, 2005 by the Minneapolis Star Tribune
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1010-27.htm

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CONGRESSMAN ROSCOE BARTLETT

Congressman Bartlett is  leading efforts to change U.S. energy policy to address the challenges of peak oil. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 and is in permanent decline. World oil production will also peak - perhaps disastrously soon. http://bartlett.house.gov

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett video on Peak Oil in 7 parts. . .

The House of Representatives formed a Peak Oil caucus in 2005 with 8 members:    #msg-30864250

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NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC ON PEAK OIL  

 "Tapped Out" by Paul Roberts, August 2008 http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/06/world-oil/roberts-text

"When Will the Peak Hit?" By Christy Ullrich, June 2008 http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/geopedia/World_Oil
 
"The End of Cheap Oil, By Tim Appenzeller, June 2004, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/  
 
"Oil, the Dwindling Treasure" by Noel Grove, June 1974 http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/natgeog.htm

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 AUDIOS & VIDEOS

Peak Oil - Chris Martenson http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil

Twilight In the Desert http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfEO3PCEeis

Peak Oil - Robert Hirsch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSbfvZiJ9g0 

 Peak Oil - Crude Impact #msg-30619202

CNN Special Investigation - OUT OF GAS #msg-30188572

91 86 90 - Peak Oil Number-Crunching  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC-koGwRu_A

Oil and the 'New International Energy Order' - Michael Klare, 04 14 08 http://tinyurl.com/59947u

"A conversation with John Hofmeister" - Charlie Rose, 03 25 08 http://tinyurl.com/23o8py

Video: A High-Risk Barrel, September 28, 2007 http://novakeo.com/?p=1054&jal_no_js=true&poll_id=10

Matt Savinar - Coast to Coast, 10/07 http://klrietmann.bingodisk.com/bingo/public/Savinarc2c111.mp3

A Crude Awakening http://tinyurl.com/yp88uu

Matthew Simmons on Peak Oil, ASPO Conference at Boston University 10 27 06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102&q=peak+oil'

Dr. Kenneth Deffeyes on Peak Oil, 2005 Energy Conference - http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2992397199507996758&hl=en

Peak Oil, Richard Heinberg, 09/11/06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2141508903056009420

Peak Oil: Fireside Chat with Julian Darley -
http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=julian%20darley%2C%20boston%20world%20oil%20conference&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wv#q=julian+darley&hl=en&emb=0

Peak Oil & The Party's Over
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Xl3J4Kpy88&feature=PlayList&p=F39AC0DCDA7ADEC2&index=0&playnext=1

Peak Oil: Gas Prices, Supply Depletion & Energy Crisis: From NewCulture.org, 07 27 06 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4&mode=related&search

The Long Emergency: Surviving Catastophies of the 21st Century, 10 30 05 http://tinyurl.com/2g6p35

Real Oil Crisis - 11 24 05 (Video Presentation) http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm

The Geopolitical Consequences of Peak Oil: Michael Klare, 10 27 06
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3121561902567229690&hl=en

The End of Suburbia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug&feature=related

World Made By Hand (Video Promo) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbEe8v4YpgA

T. Boone Pickens on CNBC [discusses alternative energies] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylI4iQ-5iXg

Dr. Al Husseini, retired head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco, interview with CNBC on 03/27/08: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=697807590&play=1

RICHARD HEINBERG on OUR POST-CARBON FUTURE http://tinyurl.com/636juw

Megan Quinn Bachman - Peak Oil, Community & The Future in four parts:

Calm Before the Storm, Richard Heinberg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajqgOCxGEAo

Running on Empty: Life Without Cheap Oil http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqg3P3wOV60

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERATIONS

A 10% Reduction in America's Oil Use in Ten to Twelve Years An Overlooked, Practical, and Affordable Approach Using Mature Existing Technology by Alan S. Drake, May 2006 • Rev. October 2006 http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm

Electrification of transportation as a response to peaking of world oil production by Alan S. Drake 12/19/05 in Light Rail Now http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html

Public Transport Industry Issues http://www.lightrailnow.org/industry_issues.htm#electrification

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS & NEW URBANISM

The Community Solution http://www.communitysolution.org/

WORLD CHANGING http://www.worldchanging.com/about/

How to Wean a Town Off Fossil Fuels http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/005135.html

A Community Solution to Peak Oil: An interview with Megan Quinn http://www.energybulletin.net/5721

Sustain Lane | The Healthy, Sustainable Living Community Resource http://www.sustainlane.com/

Culture Change http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php

Communities, Refuges, and Refuge-Communities by Zachary Nowak http://www.energybulletin.net/21172.html

Karavans - Moving Toward a New World of Self-Sufficiency, Sustainability, and Genuine Community http://www.karavans.com/peakoil.html

New Urbanism http://www.newurbanism.org/

The New Urbanisn http://www.newurbannews.com/AboutNewUrbanism.html

Online NewsHour - New Urbanism http://www.pbs.org/newshour/newurbanism/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OTHER NATIONS - STATUS FOR PEAK OIL

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': The USSR was better prepared for peak oil than the US - by Dmitry Orlov, 12/04/06
 
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259

The power of community: How Cuba survived peak oil - by Megan Quinn, 02/25/06 http://www.energybulletin.net/13171.html

"Flush With Energy" By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN August 10, 2008  #msg-31394853

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OIL & RESOURCE WARS 

FSN: Lutz Kleveman, 01/24/04 -  "The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Kleveman.html

FSN: Michael T. Klare, 01/15/05 - "Blood and Oil" http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Klare.html

FSN: Michael T. Klare, 6/21/08. "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy" http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2008/Klare.html 

 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CANTARELL OIL FIELD & DEPLETION

Cantarell Field by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field

Cantarell, The Second Largest Oil Field Is Dying,  by G.R. Morton,  08 14 04
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/1651

Cantarell Decline Perspective, Jim KIngsdale's "Energy Investment STRATEGIES"  07 08 08

http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/07/08/cantarell-decline-perspective/

A Storm Called Cantarell by Sean Brodrick, "Money and Markets' 09 03 08
#msg-31902352

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EXPORT LAND MODEL   [ELM]

Export Land Medel by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices By: Doug Casey, Casey Research LLC, 06 04 08 http://www.321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey060508.html

An Update on Mexico Export Land Model by GraphOilogy 01 22 08
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/update-on-mexico-export-land-model.html

Oil Outlook: "Export Land Model" by Jeff Rubin on CNBC, October 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ed9jsKAOHU

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CHARTS AND ILLUSTRATIONS OF INTEREST


A significant example of collapsing oil production is
Cantarell, recently the largest oil field in the Western Hemisphere. From over 2 million barrels per day in 2004-2005, Cantarell is now producing at around 700,000 barrels per day.  [credit chart to energycrisis.com]

 

Hubbert's Peak

The amount of oil you can produce can only ever equal the amount of recoverable oil you discover. The area under both curves must eventually be equal.  [ http://futureproofkilkenny.org/?page_id=110 ]

 

 


[source:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp

Explanation of Terms  
Gasoline Pump Data History

 

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