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Today's Futures Heat Map • Weakest: Natural Gas, Soybean Meal, Lumber, Milk
By: Barchart | November 28, 2023

• Today's Futures Heat Map

Strongest: Feeder Cattle, Hard Red Wheat, Soybean Oil, Platinum
Weakest: Natural Gas, Soybean Meal, Lumber, Milk



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Crude Oil Markets Await OPEC
By: Christopher Lewis | November 28, 2023

• Crude oil markets have done very little during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to wait for OPEC to make a decision on its next supply choice.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market continues to be very choppy as we try to sort out what we are going to do next. After all, OPEC is in the process of debating whether or not they should be cutting production, as prices have been slashed. Furthermore, we also need to keep in mind that there are a lot of questions out there as to whether or not the markets are oversold, and of course whether or not they need help by OPEC cutting pricing.

One of the biggest negatives for the market is the fact that we could be heading into a major recession, and therefore it’s likely that we have less demand coming. That being said though, have we gone too far? I think that’s what we are trying to sort out now, and it looks like the $72.50 level underneath remains support, while the $79.50 level above offers resistance.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets have also gone back and forth during the course of the trading session, as we continue to dance around the $80 level. With that being the case, I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of whether or not we have enough demand, or whether or not we have dropped pricing enough to pick demand out. After all, if we head into a massive recession, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the market can continue to go higher.

It’s worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is getting ready to break down below the 200-Day EMA, which is the so-called “death cross.” This is a negative technical indicator, but it is quite often late and therefore a lot of times you will see it right before the market turns back around. At this point though, I think a lot of what this comes down to is what OPEC decides. If OPEC gets extraordinarily aggressive with its production cuts, that could provide a bit of a lift. I do think that we are oversold, and now we are in what could be thought of as an accumulation phase, but we need to break above the $83 level to confirm that.

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Commodity price changes over the last year…
By: Charlie Bilello | November 27, 2023

• Commodity price changes over the last year…

Sugar: +41%
Silver: +15%
Gold: +15%
Copper: +5%
US CPI: +3.2%
Coffee: +2%
Cotton: -1%
WTI Crude: -2%
Brent Crude: -5%
Gasoline: -6%
Soybeans: -7%
Aluminum: -7%
Heating Oil: -13%
Zinc: -14%
Corn: -29%
Wheat: -30%
Nat Gas: -60%

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Whose “Moment of Truth”. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | November 28, 2023

While the global oil markets are on edge to see if OPEC plus Russia will get their act together, the calling out by OPEC of the International Energy Agency (EIA) is priceless. OPEC called out the IEA’s hypocrisy in an epic response to the IEA’s report saying that the UN’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai is “a moment of truth” for the oil and gas sector.

It is also a moment of truth for the IEA that has led Europe down a path of energy insecurity and has used its data to mislead global leaders that there is a path to net zero carbon emissions. They continue to say that if you just spend enough money on green energy projects and stop investing in fossil fuels today, that is the only way to save this poor doomed planet. This is ridiculous. As I have pointed out many times before, the IEA lost sight of its original vision of energy security for the globe and instead became a crusader for the green energy lobby and the green energy elites. They care more about their profits than they do about the economy of the world’s standards of living. While record amounts of participants will show up at the COP28 conference and many in private jets, they are selling smoke and mirrors and not real climate or energy solutions. That is why I must side with the old cartel in this case.

OPEC wrote that, “Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report “The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions” stated that the oil and gas industry faces a ‘moment of truth’. The industry has been told that it must “choose between fueling the climate crisis or embracing the shift to clean energy”, against the backdrop of the IEA’s proposed normative net-zero scenario. As we have recently seen from the IEA, this presents an extremely narrow framing of the challenges before us, and perhaps expediently plays down such issues as energy security, energy access, and energy affordability. It also unjustly vilifies the industry as being behind the climate crisis.

OPEC Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais said: “It is ironic that the IEA, an agency that has repeatedly shifted its narratives and forecasts on a regular basis in recent years, now addresses the oil and gas industry and says that this is a ‘moment of truth’. The manner in which the IEA has unfortunately used its social media platforms in recent days to criticize and instruct the oil and gas industry is undiplomatic, to say the least. OPEC itself is not an organization that would prescribe to others what they should do.”

OPEC also believes that the proposed IEA, “Framework to assess the alignment of company targets with the NZE Scenario’ is a tool intended to curtail the sovereign actions and choices of oil and gas-producing developing countries, through pressurizing their National Oil Companies. The framework also contradicts the Paris Agreement’s ‘bottom-up’ approach, where each country decides the means of contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions reduction, based on national capabilities and circumstances, and will likely lead to reduced investment and undermine the security of supplies, which is one of the IEA’s key mandates.

Regrettably, the IEA report now also calls technologies such as carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) an “illusion”, even though Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports endorse such technologies as part of the solution to tackle climate change.

OPEC says “The truth that needs to be spoken is simple and clear to those who wish to see it.” The problem is that the IEA and the global green elites try to bury the truth because the truth sometimes does not fit their sky-is-falling narrative that is critical to make people believe that if they don’t mortgage their future and restrict their travel and change the way that they eat than the world is doomed. Or as OPEC’s Al Ghais says, “Energy security, energy access, and energy affordability for all must go hand-in-hand with reducing emissions. This requires major investments in all energies, all technologies, and an understanding of the needs of all people. At OPEC, we repeat that we believe the world has to concentrate on the task of reducing emissions, not choosing energy sources,” he added.

Oil today is rebounding after being stuck in a pretty tight trading range since the Black Friday sell-off. On the demand front things continue to look better globally. Yesterday China raised their 2023 fuel import quota by three million metric tons to allow for feedback purchase. The US air travel hit a record high over the Thanksgiving holiday the TSA said total traveler’s throughput was at 2.907 million passengers.

So, while oil is waiting for the OPEC plus agreement, speculation about a deal or no deal or a surprise cut continues to move markets. The official meeting is scheduled to go ahead on November 30th while there are rumors that progress is being made with African nations that are worried about their quotes that caused the meeting to be delayed. When it comes to details leaking out, so far the silence is deafening. Usually OPEC leaks like a sieve. Maybe silence is a good thing if you plan to shock the market.

There is talk that Saudi Arabia is displeased a little bit with the African nations but also with Russia. Russia reportedly saw their exports again rise after they fell before the OPEC meeting. It was reported today that Vladimir Putin had no plans to call Crown Prince bin Salman ahead of the OPEC meeting. That headline did not seem to concern the oil market that much. Yet it is more intriguing surrounding the meeting. The question becomes: is silence a good thing or a bad thing if you’re writing a script to shock and awe. For the market this would be a perfect setup as we know the hedge funds have really been pressing the downside. We also know that seasonally Thanksgiving week has been horrible for oil prices. We also know that we may see some increase in supply this week but beyond this, we see significant drawdowns in the weeks and months ahead.

There’s also a report of a major oil output decline at the largest Kazakh fields which reached 56%. Oil Price reports that, “Crude oil loadings at key Black Sea ports in Russia and Ukraine continue to be halted amid a raging storm that has left an estimated two million people without power, according to Agency France Presse. Hurricane-level winds, massive snowfall, and heavy rain shut down electricity lines and led to major flooding. Train transport along the Russian Black Sea coast has also been halted after tracks fell into the sea. The geopolitical risk for oil remains high.

Yahoo reports that the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower and its carrier strike group transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and entered the Persian Gulf, after arriving in the waters of the Middle East earlier this month amid heightened tensions in the region stemming from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. This comes as Bloomberg reports, “US Warns of Evolving Threats to Ships Sailing Through Red Sea”. After a spate of attacks on merchant shipping near Yemen and Somalia, likely triggered by the war in Gaza, have prompted the US to warn vessel operators to be extra careful when navigating the region. “Exercise caution when transiting these areas and remain cognizant of evolving threats in this region,” the US Department of Transportation Maritime Administration, or Marad as it’s better known, said in an alert on Monday.

The bottom line is based on supply and demand. As long as OPEC rolls over their production cuts, the market is still going to be exceedingly tight. Yes, we are seeing some increase in non-OPEC production which is raising concern. We expect the demand will continue to outstrip supply with every indicator. We see that demand is going to come back with a vengeance.

Colder weather in Europe and a cold snap in the United States means that it is unlikely we’re going to have a record-breaking warm winter as we did a year ago. There is still a possibility it could be colder than normal, but the weather forecasters are mixed on that.

We expect that we will see more of a normal demand cycle this year which means supplies will end up being a lot tighter especially when it comes to distillate inventory. RBOB gasoline prices did better than heating oil yesterday. That is probably a sign that overall gasoline demand is stronger than the weekly numbers suggest. Look for big upward revisions in gasoline demand in the coming weeks from the Energy Information Administration.

Biden still doesn’t get it he doesn’t understand that it’s governments that cause inflation by printing more money and spending more money. He is blaming US corporations for his economic policies. Biden rarely takes responsibility for anything that has happened under his administration. He definitely wants to push the blame on the American people for his economic problems. Remember he called the US energy industry price gougers and war profiteers? But we all know that it wasn’t the energy industry that decided to spend tons of money that it didn’t have. It was not the US energy industry that decided to print more money and give money away. Yet now it’s the rest of corporate America that is to blame according to Biden. Yesterday he said, “To any corporation that has not brought their prices back down, even as inflation has come down, even as supply chains have been rebuilt – it’s time to stop the price gouging.”

So, take that you corporations! Quit raising those salaries! Quit employing people! Quit making profits! Quit investing in the future of the economy. Biden has spoken.

Natural gas is still torn it doesn’t know whether it should focus on cold weather and supply draws or it should focus on record-breaking natural gas production. We’ve seen whipsaw action here as that debate is being played out. Still the bottom line is whether or not these cold temperatures are going to hang around. Some forecasters have below normal temperatures for parts of the country but it could shift to above normal in other parts. There is a polar vortex that could come into America and if that happens then natural gas will probably have a pretty good move to the upside. If not, get ready to meander to the downside.

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Natural Gas Markets Continue to Look for a Bounce
By: Christopher Lewis | November 28, 2023

• The natural gas markets rallied just a bit during the early hours on Tuesday, as we continue to try and turn things around.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets did rally just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have broken above the top the hammer from the Monday session, and it looks as if we are trying to do something to break out to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that is probably more likely than not going to continue to see plenty of value hunters out there as we are in the midst of winter, and although we have seen a pretty massive pullback as of late, it’s also worth noting that the market had gained 40% before the pullback.

Now that we have gotten near the 50% Fibonacci level, I think at this point in time the market participants that are looking for value might be interested. Furthermore, we also have an uptrend line underneath, which of course a lot of people will be paying attention to. If we can break above the high of the Friday session of last week, I think that would be a very good sign that natural gas is going to continue to rally, perhaps significantly.

I still believe that sooner or later this winter we will have a spike in price that will try to be pricing in the idea that the European Union does not have enough natural gas to get through the winter, and whether or not they will be jumping into the LNG markets in America. Remember, this contract is highly sensitive to weather in the United States as well, so the fact that it’s been mild so far this winter may be part of what’s dragging this market down.

Furthermore, we also have a lot of people trying to price in the idea of a potential recession, which means a lack of electricity demand, which is quite often powered by natural gas. We have a lot of crosswinds at the moment, but that’s par for course in this market as it is highly sensitive, and very short-term focus more than anything else. Furthermore, we also have to consider the idea that a short-term cold snap could send this market straight back up in the air.

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Navigating Natural Gas: Analyzing a Sharp Decline and Future Scenarios
By: Bruce Powers | November 27, 2023

• The sharp decline in natural gas raises questions about its future trajectory, with key levels breached and a potential shift in character, prompting close monitoring of future developments.

Downward pressure in natural gas continues to dominate price action today as it breaks below the rising trend channel to find a low of 2.71. Today’s low exceeded the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2.785 and flirted with support just above the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2.68. The gap from September 27 further filled today and will completely fill if the price of natural gas falls to 2.67. Given that the bottom trendline of the rising channel was broken, a full gap fill seems more likely now.



Breakdown from Rising Channel

Nevertheless, intraday support was seen from today’s low of 2.71 leading to a bounce. At the low, the price of natural gas had corrected by 25.6% from the recent peak of 3.64. That’s the largest decline in natural gas since the 35.7% drop seen following the March 2023 peak at 3.03. It shows real selling pressure in natural gas. As well, it adds a question to what happens next. Natural gas failed to hold above its 50-Day and 200-Day EMA recently and is continuing to sell off following the recent drop below the 50-Day EMA a week ago from last Friday.

Current Correction Exceeds Prior

There have been five corrections following the bottom in April 2023. They range from 14.6% to 20.4%. The current correction is a potential change in character, and it is joined by a bearish breakdown from the rising channel. Given how clearly prices continue to fall, lower price levels become more likely to eventually be reached. The monthly swing low of 2.424 is a key level as a drop below it will violate the rising trend structure. A little above that level is another monthly low of 2.50.

Quick Recovery Could Negate Bearish Signs

We will be watching what happens next carefully. A relatively quick recovering that takes prices back above the uptrend line could negate the potential for further bearish developments. This would be the case if it is followed by continued signs of strengthening. A daily close above last Friday’s high of 2.95 would provide a clear sign of strengthening. From there, prices would need to further strengthen to negate recent bearish developments.

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Today's Futures Heat Map • Weakest: Feeder Cattle, Wheat, Natural Gas, Hard Red Wheat
By: Barchart | November 27, 2023

• Today's Futures Heat Map

Strongest: Silver, Cocoa, Treasury Bonds, Sugar
Weakest: Feeder Cattle, Wheat, Natural Gas, Hard Red Wheat



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OPEC+ looking at deeper oil cuts ahead of Thursday meeting
By: Investing | November 27, 2023

LONDON (Reuters) -OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts despite its policy meeting being postponed to this Thursday amid a quota disagreement between some producers, an OPEC+ source said on Monday.

Several analysts have said they expect OPEC+ to extend or even deepen supply cuts into next year in order to support prices, which on Monday were trading just above $80 a barrel, down from near $98 in late September.

An OPEC+ source said he expected there to be an option for a "collective further reduction" on Thursday, without providing details. OPEC+ sources earlier this month said the group was set to consider additional cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will begin its online meetings to decide oil output levels at 1300 GMT on Thursday, according to a draft agenda seen by Reuters on Monday.

The meeting was delayed from Nov. 26. OPEC+ sources said this was because of a disagreement over output levels for African producers, although sources have since said the group has moved closer to a compromise on this point.

OPEC member Kuwait is committed to any decisions issued by OPEC, especially those that concern market quotas and oil production, the country's oil ministry said in a post on social media platform X.

On Thursday at 1300 GMT, ministers on an advisory panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee hold talks. This will be followed at 1400 GMT by a meeting of the full policy-making group of OPEC+ ministers, the agenda showed.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged total oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022.

This includes Saudi Arabia's additional voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd which is due to expire at the end of December, and a Russian export cut of 300,000 bpd also until the end of the year.

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Natural Gas Markets Looking For Trendline
By: Christopher Lewis | November 27, 2023

• Natural gas markets have gapped to the downside to kickoff the Monday session, as it looks like we are threatening the 50% Fibonacci level and the uptrend line.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have gapped to the downside to kickoff the trading week, but there is a significant support level underneath in the form of the 50% Fibonacci level and the daily trendline that sits just below. Whether or not this holds remains to be seen, but it is only a matter of time before we start to see winter pricing push the market to the upside again. It’s also worth noting that the market had previously gained 40%, so a 50% pullback isn’t necessarily out of the realm of normalcy.

Keep in mind that natural gas markets are extraordinarily volatile and can move on short-term weather. At this point, I think you need to be very cautious with your position sizing, and therefore I choose to use the ETF markets instead of the futures markets. If you don’t have access to ETF markets, the CFD markets also can work, as they can be sized specifically in order to keep your leverage low. If we can break above the top of the Friday candlestick, I think that will be the sign that we are ready to start taking off again.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think is desperately looking for some type of value, and it may have found it, but we need to see momentum joining the fray as well, as it gives you an idea as to whether or not we can follow the momentum. If we break down from here, it would be an interesting situation, considering it would fly right in the face of the overall winter trade, as we are trading the January contract. I suspect what we truly need at this point is some type of cold snap in order to get traders excited again. It’s also worth noting that the Europeans may or may not get lucky with temperatures this winter, but right now it seems as if the markets are willing to look past the lack of supply in the European Union going forward.

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Crude Oil Markets Looking for Buyers
By: Christopher Lewis | November 27, 2023

• Crude oil markets initially fell to kick off the session on Monday but have found buyers under current pricing to turn things back around.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially fell a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it looks like we do have a significant amount of support underneath. As this continues to be the case, I think we have this as more or less a “buy on the dips” type of situation, as we continue to consolidate. However, it is worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is starting to break down below the 200-Day EMA, kicking off a so-called “death cross.”

Looking at this chart, it looks as if the $72.50 level underneath continues to offer significant support, but if we turn around and take on to the upside, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $79 level above. The $79 level extends to the $80 level for resistance. Breaking above that obviously would be a very bullish turn of events, perhaps sending this market much higher. In general, I think the only thing you can probably count on is a lot of choppiness.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets have initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around just like the WTI grade did. At this point, the $80 level looks as if it is going to be a bit of a magnet for price. Because of this, I think you have a situation where markets will continue to go back and forth, but if we can break above the $82.50 level, then we could see momentum pickup to the upside, sending this market toward the 200-Day EMA. That being said, the $77.50 level underneath has offered significant support, so I think at this point we more or less are going to continue to see consolidation in this area.

A lot of this makes sense, due to the fact that we are awaiting the decision by OPEC as to whether or not they are going to cut production, and of course there are a lot of questions out there as to whether or not the global economy is going to continue to demand more energy, or if we are going to go into some type of major negative move.

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Gobble Squabble. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | November 27, 2023

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil is out of whack with Brent crude and the rest of the commodity complex this morning. The market is still uncertain about the OPEC Plus gobble squabble. As I’ve written almost every Thanksgiving, there’s some new wrinkle-causing weakness in the oil market. This year of course it is concerns that OPEC Plus will raise its production because of concerns about African nations that do not want to give up their quota.

There are growing concerns that African nations such as Iran Angola and Nigeria continue to raise production. This is raising a concern that somehow Saudi Arabia will back out of its lollipop production cut and thereby flood the global oil market.

Brent crude is held up better during the fray as the US is experiencing holiday markets. Gas oil also is staying strong on concerns about a crackdown on Russian oil and gas exports. This could have a big impact on diesel supplies and because we’re getting cold weather in Europe, the market is a little less comfortable with the supply side in Europe.

JodI reported not only that global oil demand is at an all-time record high, but they also pointed out that gasoline and LPG demand are at five-year seasonal highs in September. Demand continues to go up. The question is whether supply will keep up.

Supply will not keep up if the organizers of the COP 28 conference have their way. It is expected that travelers to the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held at Expo City, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will add a record amount of carbon emissions to attend. The International Energy Agency has led Europe into economic and geopolitical instability and is saying that, ”Oil and gas producers face pivotal choices about their role in the global energy system amid a worsening climate crisis fueled in large part by their core products.”

The IEA says that, “the Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions finds that the oil and gas sector – which provides more than half of global energy supply and employs nearly 12 million workers worldwide – has been a marginal force at best in transitioning to an energy system with net zero emissions, accounting for just 1% of clean energy investment globally. The report shows how the industry can take a more responsible approach and contribute positively to the new energy economy, highlighting that the UN’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai is “a moment of truth” for the oil and gas sector.

The real moment of truth comes to the alternative energy industry. Interruptible supplies of energy have proven not to be reliable. We are seeing the financial burdens that cause wind turbine companies to go bankrupt. We are seeing battery technologies not live up to expectations. To electrify everything, it’s going to take trillions of dollars in the power grid with little discernible benefit for the environment. Siemens Energy last month asked for a government bailout for its wind-turbine division is now just giving up on wind.

The reality is that the green energy movement is more about money and control and taking away your standard of living. As far as crude oil, we think the market is under valued at this point and we expect that once we get through the shoulder season we’re going to see significant drawdowns in crude supplies in the coming weeks and months. We do expect that OPEC plus is going to follow through on their production cut and actually extend them to later in the year. We still don’t take out the slight possibility that Saudi Arabia could try to shock the market with an additional lollipop cut even though the odds of that are still very low. Regardless, we still expect the market to be undersupplied.

Natural gas is torn right now. On one hand the temperatures are cold and we’re going to see a drawdown in inventory this week. On the flip side of that, production continues to be strong which keeps us above the five-year moving average. The key for this market will continue to be whether the weather is going to continue to be cold. If it is, look for the market to pop and if not, look for it to drop.

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Crude Oil has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak in 2 years
By: Barchart | November 25, 2023

• Crude Oil has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak in 2 years.



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Decoding Natural Gas Trends: Challenges and Potential Reversal Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | November 25, 2023

• Natural gas faces uncertainty as it tests key support at 2.80, with a bearish continuation looming if it breaches this crucial level, emphasizing cautious market sentiment.

Uncertainty spiked today generating an outside day for natural gas. It further tested support today around the uptrend line with a new trend low of 2.80. Wednesday’s low of 2.82 was busted to the downside as the uptrend was breached for a short time. Fortunately for the bulls it closed back above the line to end the week.



Completion of 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement

Today’s decline got closer to a more specific match with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2.78. Given today’s outside day the two key price levels have a wider spread than previously. Today’s low of 2.80 is support. A decline below it indicates a possible bearish continuation of the retracement with the 2.78 level a nearby target. That price area is followed by the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2. 68. Of course, a drop below the uptrend line is bearish but not confirmed until there is a daily close below it. If that happens, the odds of reaching the 2.68 target increases.

Situation is Mixed

The situation with natural gas is mixed currently. Failed attempts to stay above the 200-Day EMA and 50-Day EMA is a sign of caution to the bulls, while natural gas remains within a solid rising trend channel. On a larger view, a bearish flag appears. Natural gas is in a critical area of support now given the bullish channel. An upside bullish reversal is still needed though to give a sign of strength that may lead to higher prices.

Breakout Above 2.95 is Bullish

A breakout above today’s high of 2.95 gives the first bullish signal. Natural gas then heads up into potential resistance around the 50-Day EMA at 3.03 and the 200-Day EMA at 3.17. Before it shows enough strength to take out the 200-Day line it needs to close above the 50-Day line. You can see how price has been rotating from the bottom line to the top line and then back to the top line again for the life of the channel.

The pattern is not perfect, yet we can say with some confidence that once a bullish reversal occurs off the bottom line, price heads towards the top line. What is less known is how long it might take. The next major higher around 3.86 would fit within this scenario. Reaching 3.86 will complete a 23.6% retracement of the entire previous downtrend.

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Energy Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2023

• Top Movers

AU - Victoria Base-Load Electricity Futures 5.69 %
AU - Queensland Base-Load Electricity Futures 2.87 %
NSW Baseload Electricity Continuous 1.46 %
London IPE Gas Oil Futures 0.99 %

• Bottom Movers

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures 2.35 %
NY Crude Oil Futures 2.02 %
NY Heating Oil Futures 1.22 %
NY Natural Gas Futures 1.12 %
London IPE Brent Crude Futures 0.95 %

*Close from the last completed Daily

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NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2023

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 7554 is immediately trading down about 5.88% for the year from last year's settlement of 8026. At the moment, this market has been declining for 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 8074 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in November is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 7237 intraday and remains trading beneath that level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Crude Oil Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2021 which signaled the rally would continue into 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7680 and support forming below at 7491. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 13th at 7237, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 25th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 13th, which has been a move of 8.415%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of September at 8074. The fact that the market for October close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. Currently, November has traded as rallied to exceed the previous month's high reaching 9188.

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Oil prices steady ahead of OPEC+ oil production decision
By: Investing | November 24, 2023

LONDON (Reuters) -Brent crude futures hovered above $81 a barrel on Friday as traders kept their powder dry ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting, which could bring some kind of agreement on output cuts in 2024.

Brent crude futures were up 42 cents at $81.84 a barrel by 1459 GMT, having settled 0.7% down in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were down 33 cents from Wednesday's close, dropping to $76.77. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday owing to a U.S. public holiday.

Both contracts were on track for their first weekly gain in five weeks as OPEC+ prepares for a meeting that will have output cuts high on the agenda after recent oil price declines on demand concerns and burgeoning supply, particularly from non-OPEC producers.

The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia surprised the market with an announcement on Wednesday by announcing that its Nov. 26 meeting would be postponed to Nov. 30 after producers struggled to reach a consensus on production levels.

OPEC+ has moved closer to a compromise with African oil producers on 2024 output levels, three OPEC+ sources have told Reuters.

"The most likely outcome now appears to be an extension of existing cuts," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

The surprise delay had initially brought Brent futures down as much as 4% and WTI by as much as 5% in intraday trading on Wednesday. Trading remained subdued during Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

A bright spot came in the form of the near-term economic outlook in China. Recent Chinese data and fresh aid to the indebted property sector can be "positive for the oil market's near-term trend", said CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) analyst Tina Teng.

Yet those gains could be capped by higher U.S. crude stockpiles and poor refining margins, leading to weaker demand from U.S. refineries, analysts said.

"Fundamentals developments have been bearish with rising U.S. oil inventories," ANZ analysts said in a note.

Still, China's longer-term outlook remains lukewarm. Analysts say oil demand growth could weaken to about 4% in the first half of 2024 as the property sector crunch weighs on diesel use.

Non-OPEC production growth is set to remain strong, with Brazilian state energy company Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2028, up from 2.8 million boepd in 2024.

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Natural Gas Markets Continue To Drop
By: Christopher Lewis | November 24, 2023

• Natural gas markets have fallen again during the trading session on Friday, as we are right around the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday, as we continue to ignore winter. That being said, it’s probably only a matter of time before we get a cold snap and things turn back around. We also need to focus on the lack of supply in Europe this winter, which quite frankly the Europeans got lucky last winter. There is a rising trend line and of course the 50% Fibonacci level just below that could come into the picture to offer support, so I think that is something worth paying attention to.

On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the highs of the Friday session, we could see natural gas rally toward the $3.50 level, maybe even higher than that. I do think that we will eventually get a spike in price, but right now it seems like people are willing to overlook what’s coming. The market did rise 40% from the lows, so this pullback does make a certain amount of sense as well. Simply put, we had gotten a little overbought.

I’m looking for some type of bounce to add to an already existing ETF position, which I would anticipate happening sometime soon. The next couple of days could be crucial, because if we break that trendline, then you have to ask questions about whether or not the market is trying to price in some type of massive depression. After all, a lack of demand for natural gas in the winter would be extraordinarily odd, and it would suggest that perhaps industry collapsed.

Gas numbers economically are bad, but when asked to think that sooner or later the markets have to price in the overall heating demand. This is why you cannot put huge positions on in the natural gas markets, weather reports in Massachusetts, Maine, New York, and the overall general area can move the market quite drastically as well. Unless you are meteorologist, you don’t really have a shot in the market with a huge position. With that, be cautious, but I do think that value hunting is about to come back.

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Crude Oil Markets Continue to Find Buyers On Dips
By: Christopher Lewis | November 24, 2023

• The crude oil market initially fell during the trading session on Friday, but continues to find buyers underneath as I think we are in the midst of some type of bottoming process.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday, reaching down to the $75 level to turn things back around and show signs of life. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to sort itself out, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we have to take off to the upside. If we break above the recent couple of candlesticks, then the $80 level will be a target. The 200-Day EMA sits just above there, so it will be a potential barrier.

Underneath, the market has a significant amount of support right around the $75 level, then again at the $72.50 level. If we were to break down below there, then I think you get a situation where the market continues to offer short-term buying opportunities, but you also have to ride through a significant amount of volatility.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets also pulled back a bit, with the $80 level offering support. The $80 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that previously has been a massive support level. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see this market as one that might be offering value, especially considering that the buyers continue to jump in. Furthermore, OPEC is likely to cut production at its next meeting, or the one after that, so I think the market is trying to get ahead of that situation as well.

When you look at the longer-term charts, we are at the bottom of a larger consolidation area, so that lines up as well. With that being the case, I’m a buyer on dips and I do understand that it is probably only a matter of time before we take off to the upside. Once we do, I anticipate that we could go looking to the 200-Day EMA, and breaking above that could even open a move all the way to the $90 level. Underneath, if we were to break down below the $75 level, that could be very ugly.

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United States Oil Fund $USO just saw its largest daily outflow ($225 million) in the last 7 years
By: Barchart | November 24, 2023

• United States Oil Fund $USO just saw its largest daily outflow ($225 million) in the last 7 years.



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