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Newmont Corporation NYSE: NEM
NEM
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Closing Price
$48.67
Day's Change
0.10 (0.21%)
Bid
48.52
Ask
48.90
B/A Size
100x500
Day's High
48.75
Day's Low
47.19
Volume(Above Average)
8,205,724
December 02, 2022 7:00pm ET
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Research Reports -- Barron's
9:30 pm ET December 2, 2022 (Dow Jones) Print
How Analysts Size Up Companies
These reports, excerpted and edited by Barron's, were issued recently by investment and research firms. The reports are a sampling of analysts' thinking; they should not be considered the views or recommendations of Barron's. Some of the reports' issuers have provided, or hope to provide, investment-banking or other services to the companies being analyzed.
Splunk SPLK-Nasdaq Outperform -- Price $77.68 on Nov. 30 by RBC Capital Markets Splunk [which makes software that allows customers to, among other things, analyze data for decision-making] delivered a stable [fiscal-2023 third] quarter, with revenue and margin outperformance. Revenue of $930 million was up 40% [year over year], resulting in a 9.8% beat. Management noted that customers continue to see the value of the cloud, but are pacing migration to it.
That said, Splunk's business supports a hybrid model, which management feels is a strategic differentiator. The company reiterated that underlying demand for cloud remains strong. [Estimates of] revenue, margins, and free cash flow were raised as Splunk remains focused on profitability through cost-saving initiatives. We are raising our stock-price target to $110 from $105.
Victoria's Secret VSCO-NYSE Neutral -- Price $46 on Nov. 30 by J.P. Morgan Victoria's Secret reported third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share of 29 cents (above the consensus estimate of 22 cents and management's guidance of zero to 25 cents) with a 9% sales decline and gross margin contraction of about 450 basis points [4.5%], to 34.7%, translating to a 19% year-over-year gross profit dollar decline. Management guided fourth-quarter EPS to $2-$2.45 (versus the Street's $2.33).
While Victoria's Secret is the leading player in U.S. lingerie (with about a 20% market share) and women's mass fragrances (about a 30% share) and has outlined structural cost reductions around $250 million over the next three years, top-line growth and gross profit dollars have declined sequentially.
Our December 2023 price target of $43 (versus $51 prior) is based on four times our estimate of fiscal-2024 Ebitda, representing a [1%] discount to the retail three-year prepandemic multiple.
Snowflake SNOW-NYSE Sell -- Price $142.90 on Nov. 30 by Guggenheim Securities Snowflake modestly exceeded F3Q23 product revenue [forecasts], but guided F4Q23 and initial FY24 product revenue below consensus estimates. We calculate that new ARR [annual recurring revenue] grew at the slowest pace in the company's history, at only mid-single digits in the fiscal third quarter.
Despite this, F4Q23 guidance is achievable, even if Snowflake recognizes no new ARR in the period. However, we see some risk in FY24 guidance for 47% product growth (implying product revenue of about $2.83 billion), which assumes that the current macro environment will continue throughout all of next year.
We are lowering our price target on the stock from $125 to $105, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. Snowflake currently trades around 18.8 times enterprise value/next 12-month estimated revenue, and 20 times EV/NTM subscription revenue, well above the average of 9.2 and 9.8 times, respectively, for high-growth infrastructure peers. At $105, Snowflake would trade at about 14 times EV/NTM subscriptions and still be one of the most expensive software stocks.
Newmont NEM-NYSE Buy -- Price $47.47 on Nov. 29 by BofA Securities Our price objective for Newmont, $64 per share, is based on the stock trading at 1.75 times our estimated net asset value. Our estimate is based on a 5% discount rate and 10-year average gold price of $1,869 per ounce.
Historically, North American precious metal stocks have traded between one and three times NAV, with a median of 1.5 times over the past three years (two times longer term), and with unhedged, growth-oriented producers with solid balance sheets occupying the upper end of the range. In the great gold rally of 2011, Newmont's multiple peaked at 2.50.
Apple AAPL-Nasdaq Overweight -- Price $148.03 on Nov. 30 by Piper Sandler We are reducing our forecasts for Apple, primarily based on iPhone supply concerns from shutdowns in Zhengzhou, China. In effect, we are reducing our revenue forecast for the December quarter to $119 billon, down from $127.3 billion.
We are assuming a reduction of about nine million handset units. Greater than 50% of iPhone production comes out of the Zhengzhou facility, where there have been numerous reports of worker unrest.
While Apple has made efforts to move production out of China, in our opinion, India still accounts for less than 5% of total iPhone 14 production and is likely to help only to a limited degree. Our stock-price target is $195.
Intuit INTU-Nasdaq Outperform -- Price $379.71 on Nov. 29 by BMO Research A worse-than-expected top-line hit from Credit Karma overshadowed otherwise solid metrics in fiscal first-quarter 2023. We like Intuit shares on a longer-term basis on the strength of the TurboTax and QuickBooks platforms, with the coming U.S. tax season as the next major catalyst. Price target: $448.
To be considered for this section, material should be sent to Research@barrons.com.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 02, 2022 21:30 ET (02:30 GMT)
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