Molybdenum

[Spec_Investor]

TSMNF Tosca Mining is sitting on billions in moly and copper. New developments will be coming at a fast and furious pace. Only a few days left to buy it at this price IMO. Check out the brand new board.

[hardrockminer]

This is looking like a moly winner as I believe they already have enough proven reserves for a successful mine and hopefully this new 10,000 meter drill program will show a lot more moly they identified from their recent sampling program.

Bard Ventures 2009 Moly Drilling Commences

Lone Pine Molybdenum Project

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Nov 02, 2009 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --

Bard Ventures Ltd. ("Bard" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE: CBS) is pleased to announce that it has started the 2009 diamond drilling on its Lone Pine Molybdenum Property. The initial 2009 phase of compilation of all historic exploration work, geological mapping, soil and rock sampling has been completed and after interpretation of these results the Company has decided to commence a diamond drill program of up to 10,000 meters. The Property is located approximately 15 kilometers north-northwest of Houston, BC, and is situated in the Omineca Mining Division.

Lone Pine Molybdenum Property:

The 2009 geological mapping and soil sampling identified the location of the favorable geological units including new areas of Alaskite and granites hosting visible molybdenum mineralization. The Alaskite intrusive is the main focus of the Lone Pine Property and in drilling it has been interpreted as being the most favorable lithology for molybdenum mineralization and is the host to the existing resource. During the field program all of the historical showings were re-located which comprised of old pits and trenches where molybdenum mineralization had been located All of the known showings located during the mapping program are located within the zone of anomalous Moybdenum in soils and it will be these areas that will be tested in the upcoming diamond drill program.

The Lone Pine Property currently has a calculated measured and indicated resource at a 0.04% Mo cutoff of 110,340,000 tonnes grading 0.083%Mo containing 201,733,000 in-situ pounds of molybdenum. (Please refer to News Release dated January 22, 2009 for full resource disclosure).

The Property has an ideal location for operations with established infrastructure including:

- Highway 16;

- a natural gas pipeline;

- a major hydro power transmission line and transformer sub-station; and

- is located only 15 kilometers from the CN rail line in Houston, BC.

Bard is earning a 100% interest in the Property under the terms of an option agreement (see News Release dated September 15, 2006). The Lone Pine exploration work is being conducted under the supervision of Qualified Person Rick Kemp P.Geo.,

On behalf of:

Bard Ventures Ltd.

Eugene Beukman, President

[hardrockminer]

New Research Report out on Bard Ventures and their moly prospects. You could download the Fundamental Research Analyst report on Bard here: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=8XLUJCZG

Love that he raised his target price and has a BUY on the stock based on a moly price of $10/lb but common, he is being way too conservative considering what Bard is sitting on and how much potential there is too prove up much more resource and the amazing proximity to all the infrastructure they will need for a mine (rail, power...). He could have come up with a valuation of $5.00/share and it would still sound reasonable to me.

For instance, check out this cool resource calculator tool. For the inferred resource, it says the share price should be $9.70US and on cumulative gross totals should be more than $48US. Too bad that Fundamental Research analyst didn't use this tool for his report.

http://shareknow.net/companies/1181

Scroll down to resource calculator, select Lone Pine, agree to terms..

[hardrockminer]

Analyst thinks China will stay a net importer of moly as it's too expensive to mine in China.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/how-to-profit-from-molybdenum-45612.aspx

[hardrockminer]

Was a bit surprised with recent news about financing at $0.125 as I got from the interview that they didn't feel it necessary with the shares trading so low. But hey, they now have a couple of million for their upcoming 10,000 metre drill program.

Bard just announced that their sampling program was a huge success so I hope to see some killer drill results and we already know they are sitting on a huge moly deposit with amazing infrastructure nearby including a rail line, electricity...so a mine is going to happen!

[hardrockminer]

Looks like a good merger. Creston's sp didn't collapse on the news.

[monopolee]

We will see what happens with TJS now that they have merged with Creston Moly (CMS).

[hardrockminer]

Analyst H.M. Visagie's Sept 9 report on Base Metal Prices: "Providing that China returns as an exporter of molybdenum, we are forecasting molybdenum to exit 2009 above $18/lb and to average $25/lb in 2010. If China does not resume its traditional supply role in the molybdenum market, we expect prices could be much higher."

[hardrockminer]

Interview With Moly Company CEO

Check out http://smallcapepicenter.com/executive/CBSyahoo3September2009/index.htm to hear an update by the CEO Bard Ventures on what's cooking with their world class moly ore body. I am still not sure why this stock has not gotten the attention I think it deserves considering the large discovery, grades, closeness to infrastructure and potential to fill in the rest of the property's moly targets with their upcoming drill program.

[hardrockminer]

Bard Ventures Now Has Facebook Group

If anyone is interested in following Bard and is on FB, here's the link to the new group: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bard-Ventures/88081448028

There is also a Moly Group on Facebook you should check out. It seems to have good updated stuff on all things moly - http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=113244697106

[goforthebet]

Molybdenum seen weak in 2009 but recovery in 2011

US based CPM Group said that molybdenum prices will stay low at between USD 10.50 and USD 11 a pound this year because of weak demand from steel makers, but in 2011 it will rise to above USD 20 as demand rebounds.

Mr Douglas Horn commodity analyst at CPM said that global stimuli packages will help boost prices of molybdenum to around USD 16 in 2010. He added that "There is a large amount of government infrastructure spending coming online. Our estimates indicate that over USD 700 billion will be poured into the market on the infrastructure side."

Mr Horn said that "They fell for a very good reason. There has been a deep drop in steel production. The fourth quarter of 2008 was particularly bad for the stainless steel industry and they are the largest molybdenum consumer." He added that 70% of molybdenum demand comes from steel production and output cuts during this slowdown had exceeded previous recessions.

On the supply side, he said that there was a big bulge of probable development projects in 2012, but they would depend on financing. He added that "But once re stocking resumes, any upturn could be very drastic, very swift and demand for molybdenum could be quite strong."

(Sourced from www.reuters.com)


http://steelguru.com/news/index/2009/03/07/ODUyMzM%3D/Molybdenum_seen_weak_in_2009_but_recovery_in_2011.html

[sumisu]

Sprott to unwind moly fund

Expects long slump

Peter Koven, Financial Post

Published: Saturday, January 10, 2009

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1161544

Investment guru Eric Sprott is as negative as almost anyone when it comes to the global economy. And that led him to yesterday's announcement that he is unwinding his molybdenum fund.

Mr. Sprott launched the Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in early 2007 to give investors a unique, publicly-traded vehicle invested exclusively in the silvery-white metal and the companies mining it.

At the time, it seemed like a good idea as the molybdenum (or moly) market was red-hot. Moly is used in high-quality steels with applications in the energy industry. That made it an ideal place for long-term energy bulls like Mr. Sprott, a big believer in the "Peak Oil" thesis.

But in early November, the wheels suddenly came off. After holding around US$33 a pound for more than a year, the moly price collapsed almost overnight to US$10 as the reality of the global recession started to kick in.

Like the moly miners themselves, the share price of the Sprott molybdenum fund took an immediate dive. By early December, it was trading way below its book value.

A more bullish investor might have decided to ride out the tough times in the hopes that the moly price and the value of the fund would eventually increase. But Mr. Sprott is not that guy.

He believes that the world economy is at the beginning of a very long and deep depression brought about by the over-leveraging of the financial system. With the deleveraging likely to go on for years, he does not think moly prices will recover anytime soon.

That all led to yesterday's announcement that the $62-million fund will be unwound, with the proceeds distributed to shareholders.

"One problem with a commodity is a very small difference between supply and demand can crush the price, or cause it to go up," Mr. Sprott said in an interview. "And obviously we've lost demand for molybdenum here, and it could be a long while before that reverses itself."

In the short-term, industry experts generally agree with Mr. Sprott that the moly price will continue to struggle.

"For the next couple of years, we're probably looking at a moly price of US$10 to US$12 a pound," said an analyst, who asked not to be named. "Eric's probably thinking, 'What's the point?'"

But there is some hope from analysts that moly could recover faster than other metals because moly-bearing steels are specifically tied to the energy sector, where there is still a lot of activity. The outlook is much weaker for steels that are widely used in the auto sector.

[e-mail]

[wzebra33]

TC Is now trading at less than PE of 2 ,Time to buy (IMO)

[wzebra33]

MOL.TO Up bigtime http://www.molymines.com/public/documents/4/11/080804%20-%20Diggers%20and%20Dealers%20v4.pdf

[pplatte9]

Bard Ventures’ Expanding Moly Universe

By Darryl Kelley

Higher grades, longer intercepts, and further step-outs all add up to the inevitability of Bard Ventures’ (TSX.V:CBS), rather than the possibility, of a major molybdenum deposit. The Lone Pine project, located 15 kilometers outside of Houston British Columbia, is intersected by Highway 16 as well as a natural gas pipeline and major power transmission lines, making the property an extremely well serviced location for a mine.

Ongoing drilling has now delineated a large, high-grade moly deposit that covers 4 zones measuring at least 1.5 km in length and half a kilometer wide.

Bard is in the process of earning a 100% interest in the property in exchange for 545,000 shares and $75,000 in exploration, as well as some minor advance royalty payments.


Drilling Results Simmarized

Final assay results have been received and interpreted from drill holes BD-08-26, BD-08-27 and BD-08-28.

The significant intervals for hole BD-08-28 are tabulated below:

Drillhole No. Total Depth (m) From (m) To (m) Interval (m) Mo% MoS2%
BD-08-28 843.34 59.00 789.00 730.00 0.10 0.17
Including 297.00 335.00 38.00 0.15 0.25
Including 377.00 549.00 172.00 0.15 0.25

Hole BD-08-28: Drill hole BD-08-28 was designed to follow up the Northwest trend of the higher grade molybdenum mineralization intitially encountered in drill hole BD-08-25. Drill hole BD-08-25 intersected 730.9m of 0.10% Molybdenum including 130.1m of 0.20% Molybdenum. BD-08-28 was collared 50 meters to the northwest and collared into andesitic rocks through to approximately 110m before encountering the favourable alaskite intrusive. Alaskite continued through to approximately 771m and was shutdown in the Quartz Feldspar Porphyry at 843.34m.

The significant intervals for holes BD-08-26 and 27 are tabulated below:
Drillhole No. Total Depth (m) From (m) To (m) Interval (m) Mo% MoS2%
BD-08-26 592.34 109.00 585.00 476.00 0.05 0.08
Including 109.00 175.00 66.00 0.06 0.10
Including 369.00 555.00 186.00 0.06 0.10
Including 391.00 423.00 32.00 0.10 0.17

BD-08-27 788.52 585.00 788.52 203.52 0.06 0.10
Including 749.00 763.00 14.00 0,10 0,17

Hole BD-08-26: Drill hole BD-08-26 was designed to follow up the favourable results of BD-17-16, 100m to the southwest. BD-08-26 collared into Andesitic rocks before quickly becoming an intercalated package of andesite and alaskite up to 353.00m. From 353.00m to the end of hole at 592.34m, moderately mineralized andesite was encountered. The location and extent of the intersected Alaskite intrusive, continues to favour the interpretation that the intrusive body has a northwest strike with a steep southwesterly dip.

Hole BD-08-27: Drill hole BD-08-27 was designed to follow up a fence of drilling that included BD-07-16, BD 07-19 and BD-08-26, by extending the potential window of mineralization another 100m to the southwest. BD-08-27 collared into Andesite and stayed in andesite throughout the entire hole length with few, noted, less than one metre alaskite dykes in the entire drillhole.

Final assay results from drill hole BD-08-25, first reported on February 19th this year, are below:

Drillhole No. Total Depth (m) From (m) To (m) Interval (m) Mo% MoS2%
BD-08-25 798.82 67.92 798.82 730.9 0.10 0.17
Including 259.0 577.1 318.1 0.14 0.23
Including 447.0 577.1 130.1 0.20 0.33
Including 453.0 477.0 24.0 0.30 0.50
Including 611.3 739.0 127.7 0,15 0.25

This hole was collared into hornfelsed andesite through to 133.0 m before encountering the Alaskite intrusive. The Alaskite intrusive, from 133.0 m to 739.0 m, was inundated with extensive stockwork quartz veining, abundant visible molybdenum and favourable alteration.

The Alaskite intrusive is the main focus of the Lone Pine Property drilling and has been interpreted as being the most favorable lithology for molybdenum mineralization. To date, the Alaskite intrusive is 260m in length along its northwest-southeast strike and 310m wide in plan view and molybdenum mineralization has been tested to a known depth of 843m. A higher grade corridor of molybdenum mineralization has been outlined within the Alaskite intrusive as shown in the favourable assay results from BD-07-16, BD-08-24, BD-08-25, BD-08-26, BD 08-27 and BD-08-28.

Bard also released the results on May 27th from hole BD-08-29, with significant intercepts covered in the table below:

Drill Hole No. From (m) To (m) Interval (m) Mo% MoS2%
BD-08-29 229.0 749.0 520.0 .11 .18
Including 367.0 643.0 276.0 0.15 0.25
Including 485.0 537.0 52.0 0.20 0.33

Moly Fundamentals Stronger Than Ever
The fundamental aspects driving the strength in the molybdenum market remain extremely bullish. Large institutional investors such as Eric Sprott have even gone so foar as to establish their owm Molybdenum Participation Funds, designed to capitalize on the metal’s increasing value.

Among the main drivers for molybdenum’s high price:

• Record high molybdenum prices. Tightening supply and growing demand has driven the price of molybdenum from the $2-$3 per pound range where it languished throughout much of the 1990s, to its current level near $30 per pound.

• Strong demand fundamentals. The growing production of construction steel (32% of end use) and stainless steel (31% of end use) has driven molybdenum demand for its lightweight, high-strength and anti-corrosive properties. Demand for molybdenum-bearing construction steel (0.1%-1.2% Mo) continues to grow, fuelled by the oil and gas, ship building, aerospace and building industries. Stainless steel (1%-7% Mo) production has grown at a compound rate of 8% over the past five years and shows no signs of slowing down.

• Tight supply. Traditional producers of molybdenum have seen production rates decline. Codelco, the world’s second largest molybdenum producer, has reduced annual production by 10 million pounds due to falling head grades. A further 11 million pound reduction is possible this year. Freeport McMoran (Phelps Dodge) is considering reopening past mining operations or adding molybdenum recovery circuits to boost Mo by-product recoveries at their copper operations.

• Long lead time for new production. There is currently no significant excess standby supply at the mine level ready to be brought back into production, and limited new development of primary molybdenum mines has resulted in long lead times for greenfield developments.

• Chinese molybdenum exports are falling. China is the third-largest producer of molybdenum and historically one of the largest exporters. The country’s exports are declining as its voracious appetite for steel has redirected domestic production. Additionally, more stringent regulatory enforcement and taxing of exports have curtailed production from many small mines.

• High molybdenum prices likely to continue. Molybdenum consumption has grown at a compound annual rate of 5% over the past five years and now stands at approximately 400 million pounds per annum. Assuming annual demand growth of 4% going forward, annual global molybdenum production will need to expand by 75% to 700 million pounds by 2020.

[frenchee]

FCX is the place to be if you are a Moly investor...#board-1443

[sumisu]

H.C. Stark Press Release

http://tinyurl.com/5cqn5y

Tuesday - 2008/05/06

Newton, MA, May 06, 2008
H.C. Starck Inc.’s Fabricated Products (“FPR”) Division announces higher refractory metal prices

H.C. Starck Inc.’s Fabricated Products (“FPR”) Division is notifying customers worldwide of a double digit price increase for molybdenum, tungsten, tantalum and niobium metals effective immediately or as contracts permit.

The substantial increase in demand for molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and tantalum, including from emerging markets such as China and the global consumer electronics market has resulted in a sustained increase in the cost of raw materials. These market conditions for refractory metals are increasingly projected to be secular, not cyclical. This means that pricing pressures will be sustained and likely increase. In addition to the cost of molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, and tungsten, prices of other commodities, such as energy, significantly affects FPR including, for example, in production and transportation.

“H.C. Starck Inc. thus far has absorbed all of these macro economic based cost increases, said Andrew Towey, Vice President of Global Marketing for FPR. Unfortunately the prevailing market conditions have reached a point where H.C. Starck must recoup some of these costs.”

About H.C. Starck
H.C. Starck is an international group of companies with more than 3,400 employees at production sites in Europe, North America and the Far East. Widely known for its technology in refractory metals, ceramics, and chemicals for the electronic, semiconductor, and optical industries, H.C. Starck is owned by Advent & Carlyle.

Contact:
Andrew Towey
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
[e-mail]

[maverick49er]

Golden Phoenix Mineral's Ashdown Project LLC Generated $10.4 Million in Moly Sales in 2007; First Quarter Sales Continue Strong

Tuesday April 15, 5:00 am ET

SPARKS, Nev., April 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM - News) reports that the Ashdown Project LLC generated approximately $10.4 million in gross income from sales of molybdenum (MoS2) concentrates in 2007. By comparison, sales in 2006 totaled $176,777. Golden Phoenix owns 60 percent of the Ashdown Project LLC.

In 2007, 732,627 pounds of concentrates were produced and shipped at an average sale price of $31.30 per pound of contained Mo. During the fourth quarter of 2007, six shipments of moly concentrates were produced, averaging 44,600 pounds per shipment at a grade of approximately 53% Mo. In that same period, recoveries in the mill averaged approximately 92%.

The rate of production established in the fourth quarter of 2007 continued into 2008, with seven shipments being completed between January 1, 2008 and the present. One of those shipments was processed in nine days, the fastest production rate to date, at an average recovery exceeding 95% for an estimated market value of approximately $660,000.

David A. Caldwell, CEO of Golden Phoenix, commented on the first anniversary of production at Ashdown, "A little over a year since we began to ship product, I am very pleased to report the mill is achieving recoveries routinely exceeding 90%, with moly values well above 50% and copper contamination below half a percent. This means that we are generating a quality concentrate at a time when the industry-at-large is struggling to reach, much less exceed, minimum specifications. This is a credit to our unique ore body as well as the persistent efforts of our technical staff both underground and at the mill. Our focus in the coming months will be completion of the development work needed to raise ore production from the current 60-to-70 tons per day to the 100 tpd design capacity of the mill."

Please visit the Golden Phoenix website at http://www.Golden-Phoenix.com/

Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. is a Nevada-based mining company committed to deliver value to its shareholders by acquiring, developing and mining superior precious and strategic metal deposits in North America using competitive business practices balanced by principles of ethical stewardship. Golden Phoenix owns the Mineral Ridge gold and silver property near Silver Peak, Nevada, the Northern Champion molybdenum mine in Ontario, Canada, and is majority owner of the Ashdown Project LLC gold and molybdenum property held jointly by Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. and Win-Eldrich Mines, Ltd. of Toronto, Canada through its US subsidiary, Win-Eldrich Gold, Inc.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080415/latu050.html?.v=101

[Lone Clone]

Molybdenum Price Rise Justifies Approval of Molybdenum Mining Projects, an Industrial Info News Alert

http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=835201

Industrial Info Resources

SUGAR LAND, TX--(Marketwire - March 21, 2008) - Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas) -- The price of molybdenum is currently about $34 per pound, up from $2 per pound in 2002, and is nearing historic high prices set in 2005. During this period, molybdenum miners have optimized production and are looking for ways to expand capacity. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Incorporated (NYSE:FCX) (Golden, Colorado) and Thompson Creek Metals Company Incorporated (NYSE:TC) (Denver, Colorado) are some of the companies that have received approvals for molybdenum mine projects.

For details, view the entire article by subscribing to Industrial Info's Premium Industry News at http://www.industrialinfo.com/showNews.jsp?newsitemID=129780,

[sumisu]

>Look forward to your next pick, Energy Guy. I have followed your recommendations for other investments and your due diligence was always very thorough.

Good luck,

sumi

[sumisu]

Energy Sector Fires Up Demand for Moly

By Laura Bobak

04 Mar 2008 at 12:03 PM GMT-05:00

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40943

TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- World molybdenum demand is expected to grow 5.8% this year, a base metals analyst told a commodities outlook forum at the annual PDAC convention in Toronto.

The most recent climb in molybdenum prices can be attributed to increasing demand from the energy sector, which accounts for 78% of demand for the metal, said Catherine Virga of CPM Group in New York.

"The trend in molybdenum prices and oil prices are highly correlated," Virga said.

Other factors include growing global steel production, where demand is relatively price inelastic, combined with a tightening of export quotas by the "wild card" of China, as well as a decline in output from copper miners who produce moly as a byproduct, Virga told a crowd of several hundred delegates gathered for the outlook session.

The rise follows a drop in price caused by de-stocking in the steel market and high-grading byproduct producers several years ago. Virga said the current rally in molybdenum prices is driven by several factors.

"Present molybdenum prices are sustainable," Virga said. "It's highly unlikely molybdenum prices will return to the $2 to $4 range seen in the 1990s."

In the past, previous rallies in molybdenum were triggered by temporary shocks in supply or demand, she said. For example, when crude oil production dropped during the energy crisis of the 1970s, molybdenum prices spiked.

Similarly, demand dropped in the 1980s for several factors, including overproduction by the steel industry.

Today, less molybdenum is being produced as a byproduct of copper, and it is increasingly coming from primary producers, she said. There are tighter regulations on Chinese producers.

In addition, the cost structure is rising: Virga predicts cash operating costs will have risen 200% from 2000 to 2011.

Meanwhile, there is a widening scope of end-uses for the metal, which has anti-corrosive properties, as well as an ability to withstand high heat. The metal is increasingly used in the energy sector, she said, as well as industrial development, construction, transportation and defence.

Another benefit is that other metals cannot be easily substituted for molybdenum. Finally, there are diminishing inventories for the metal, she said.

Most of the world's molybdenum originates as a byproduct of copper mining in the United States, Canada, Peru and Chile. However, molybdenum is increasingly derived as a primary product of deposits in China, the U.S. and Canada. There will be increasing regional diversification in production, and the major players will see their share of the current market shrink, down to about 82% in 2009, from 91% in 2003.

Virga projects that about half of world molybdenum production will originate from primary producers by 2011, pushing total world production to roughly 550 million pounds, from current levels of well over 400 million pounds.

According to Virga, the international political climate has resulted in the "locking up" of energy resources, which has spurred energy exploration and development in other countries.

In addition, emerging markets are placing increased pressure on global energy demand, with higher per capita energy consumption.

"Adding molybdenum to steel enhances corrosion resistance and strengthens steel to allow for thinner walls," said Virga.

"Increasing molybdenum content to 0.5% (from 0.2%) can reduce the total tonnage of steel used in construction of the pipeline allowing producers to cut costs: reducing the amount of welding, lowering weight and transportation costs."

[sumisu]

Credit Crunch Hits Molybdenum Miner

By Ben Abelson

20 Mar 2008 at 08:23 PM GMT-04:00

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=41363

CHICAGO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Shares in Adanac Moly [TSX:AUA; OTCPK:AUAYF] fell almost 13% today to a new 52-week low after the company said it had yet to secure satisfactory financing for its Ruby Creek mine development and four builders have filed liens on the project totalling about $3 million.

This recent development is just one in several setbacks that have hit Adanac since the company disclosed late January that it was essentially not immune to the systemic credit crunch.

Back in January, Adanac called its trouble securing a key $80 million bridge loan a “minor schedule disruption” and said that it would “slow down” construction activities on its massive $650 million Ruby Creek mine while it worked to secure financing continued through February. Yesterday, the company characterized the situation a bit more frankly, disclosing that the firm had be unable to date to secure the financing on satisfactory terms, and that all construction activities at the project had been suspended.

The sudden turnabout in the characterization of the “slow down” and the fact that the four builders have now filed $3 million in liens against the company didn’t inspire tremendous confidence in the project by investors, who now value Adanac’s shares at just C$0.57, about 80% less than the C$2.50-plus they traded at in July.

The costs of Ruby Creek are nothing if not massive, and given current market conditions it’s unclear when the project will get built. While the project’s base-case economics are reasonably strong, with an IRR of 18.9%, these take into account an elevated molybdenum price of $28 through 2010 and $15 through 2015.

Even if the company is able to secure the bridge loan in the near term, Adanac’s problems will unfortunately not simply disappear. The project requires $600 million in debt financing after the bridge financing has run out. Even if the bridge loan is arranged, it’s unclear if this is anywhere close to being finalized – and so investors have no certainty when the stars will align for Adanac given current market conditions.

It’s unclear how much cash Adanac has on hand to date, but the company could also be forced to freeze ongoing exploration at the Ruby Creek if funds run tight. As of the end of October 2007, the company had about C$11 million in cash. Additionally, if it receives its final construction permit shortly, the company will be required to post a $3 million bond, which would likely have the effect of restricting usage of an additional sum of cash. Finally the company cannot call on significant equity financing to help out, especially given that the C$65 million market cap company just completed a C$15 million equity deal at the end of December.

In short, without cash – and a significant improvement in the credits market soon – Ruby Creek could be dead in the water.

Given the project’s base case NPV of C$300 million, there is of course a chance that a larger, better financed firm may try to scoop up Adanac at a bargain price. While there is a shot at this happening, the mine’s construction bill is not insignificant even to a larger player – so it’s unclear who might want to take on the risk at this point. Additionally, Adanac would owe a break fee to the investment bank it’s engaged for its debt financing of up to $12 million if it is taken out – so this amount must be effectively tacked onto the purchase price.

Given the level of uncertainty that exists with the project’s development at this stage – and the level of leverage to molybdenum at the project (average costs are the $7/lb range) – it’s uncertain which firms might step up to the plate, and if Adanac’s longer-term shareholders/management would approve such a deal.

The Ruby Creek Molybdenum Deposit is a low-grade bulk type of molybdenum deposit, containing 143.7 million tonnes at 0.059% Mo proven and probable reserves and 206.4 million tonnes at 0.63% Mo measured and indicated resources.