Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[dexprs]

If they suddenly want to elect guess who????

[Elroy Jetson]

The Fed could always take interest rates to 7.5%, up from the current 5.5% instead of cutting rates.

That might have an interesting impact on unemployment.


It's worth a try if it can bring inflation down to 2.0% from the current excessively high 2.6%.

[dexprs]

Sold 56 Puts in MO in a retirement account at a strike price of 50 and expiration in December.

[dexprs]

They are concerned about the Unemployment and they may not get it below 2% without higher unemployment.

[dexprs]

Sold 12 Puts in RCL.

[dexprs]

A few minutes ago there was a fake break out in RCL, but looking at the volume, the sellers were more than the buyers, so did not go for it and still waiting.

[dexprs]

RCL price is coming down fast all morning after a couple of large sellers of shares. Perhaps they plan to buy them back below 160 per share. I am following the price closely on my technical indicators and plan to sell Puts when it turns on the RSI and PPO charts.
Insurance never goes out of style. ask The Lloyds of London, had been in business since 100 years before the American Revolution.

[Elroy Jetson]

Not 2% but perhaps low enough for some rate cuts

[dexprs]

A few trades this morning, sold SN, SUPV.
Sold Covered Calls in GOOG and NVDA.
Opened OPRA, not the star.

[dexprs]

It shall be interesting to see which direction the SPX breaks out from the trading range of 5550-5650.

[Elroy Jetson]

Apple and Nvidia are reportedly in talks to invest in ChatGPT creator OpenAI by taking part in a multi-billion dollar funding round led by venture capital firm Thrive Capital.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-and-nvidia-in-talks-to-invest-in-openai-report-71801994

The fundraising round will see Apple and Nvidia invest in OpenAI alongside long-time investor Microsoft, in a fundraising round expected to value the artificial intelligence research organization at over $100 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Participation in the funding round, which is expected to raise several billion dollars, would mark the first investments from either company into OpenAI as both companies have forged closer links with the AI firm in recent months. It remains unclear what sums Apple and Nvidia are planning to invest.

Microsoft is currently OpenAI’s largest and most influential investor, having put a combined sum worth $13 billion into the AI research organization since 2019, via agreements that have given it a 49% stake in the entity.

In June, Apple announced it had struck an agreement with OpenAI to use ChatGPT in its own AI programs. Nvidia has worked closely with OpenAI in the past on various research initiatives that have seen the AI firm use the chip maker’s most advanced semiconductors.

Apple has historically stayed away from investing in startups. Nvidia has more recently increased its investment activity over the past two years, including by investing in a series of AI companies.

[Elroy Jetson]

The forward P/E for Nvidia is 43.2 with only 500% earnings growth.

Barrons, the wrong-way advisor for those who prefer a contrarian veneer, is instead recommending the value play, Chipolte Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) because it has a forward P/E of only 51.4 with an outstanding annual revenue growth of 16.2% and profit growth of 12.2%. Nvidia is a financial dud only billionaires should invest in, because they can easily afford to take a major loss on a speculative chip designer.

Chipolte Has Fallen Enough. It’s Time to Buy This ‘Chip’ Stock. - Barron's https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/buy-chipotle-stock-price-pick-59d5e904

There's also a lot of recommendations for Blackstone's BREIT, the roach motel of real estate investing - you can buy shares of BREIT, but you can't turn around and sell your BREIT shares - you have to get in line to sell like everyone else. The price is what Blackstone says it is, you just can't sell at that price you paid to get in.


The “Low-Wage 100” — spent a staggering $522 billion on buybacks from 2019 to 2023, according to the study from the Institute for Policy Studies, published Thursday. The “Low-Wage 100” are the S&P 500 companies with the lowest-paid workers — including fast-food chains, home-improvement retailers and consumers-goods makers. Lowe’s Cos. (NYSE:LOW) led the pack on share buybacks.

Sarah Anderson, director of the IPS Global Economy Project and co-editor of the IPS website https://inequality.org/ described buybacks in low-wage businesses as a “financial maneuver that artificially inflates CEO stock-based pay and siphons corporate dollars out of worker wages and long-term investments.” 47 of the Low-Wage 100 put more money into buying back their own shares than investing in capital improvements. The 20 largest employers in the group have spent nine times as much on buybacks as on retirement-plan contributions for employees.

William Blair Co analyst Sharon Zackfia said, the price-difference between the high end restaurants and the low end has narrowed. “Fast food has been pretty aggressive with their price increases over the past two to three years, without giving more to the consumer,” she told MarketWatch, "which is a big bonus for investors so long as fast-food venues can keep packing in the punters."

Just another reason Barrons and Marketwatch, part of the merciless propaganda group Fox News, is touting low-wage favorite Chipolte Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG).

[santafe2]

Looks like the big money has decided to fleece short term retail traders. NVDA will move back up again soon. I guess sales up 122% from the year-ago quarter and $30B in Q2 sales was just too paltry...some would say meager..:). One of the 3 most valuable companies in the world just reported growth over 100% YoY and they really don't have any serious competition. Good time to buy and hold.

[dexprs]

As the markets were fluctuating and we are nearing September, I sold off many smaller winners also and thought more cash going into next months, cannot be a bad idea.

[dexprs]

AMZN 500 shares were put to me including the benefit of the sold Premium at 177.48 and I just sold 5 Covered Calls on the for early October expiration at a strike price of 185 for $3.55 per share.
Resold the NVDA 10 Puts for a premium of $3.60 per share. Strike 108 and expiration 10/18. Short term so the time works faster for me and the price is where if I get it put to me I will not mind in view of their strong earnings report.

[dexprs]

The log jam of waiting for NVDA earnings is over and the markets are moving, but September and October awaits us.

[dexprs]

Sold 100 shares of NOW on the nice $30+ pop this morning and will buy back 200 shares around 830 when it retreats,
Added: NFG, MPLX, CAJPY.
Bought back NVDA 10 Puts for a close to 45% gain for a few days. Will resell them soon on the next swoon.

[dexprs]

Large buying volume is pouring into NVDA, in the last few minutes.

[dexprs]

That should have read 119 in the After Market.

[dexprs]

Added 500 NVDA at 126.

[dexprs]

About a $13 price move is expected in NVDA after the earnings report this afternoon, based on the Options.

[dexprs]

Bought back 8 Covered Calls in CVS and bought 2000 shares in PINE.

[dexprs]

Closed IMMR for a similar loss as yesterday on another 500 shares. It had good earnings, but the price is only going south each day.

[dexprs]

Added UHS, MRX and IBKR.

[dexprs]

A good morning for selling and buying back options, as many are waiting for the behemoth, NVDA to report.
I sold Covered Calls: PFE 15, CLFD 5.
Sold Puts: RCL 11.

[dexprs]

Bought back 3 Covered Calls in ANF at $1.25 per share, it was sold at $6.00 per share 20 days ago, when it was Put to me.

[dexprs]

NKE stock is beginning to show signs of life.

[dexprs]

Neat, especially considering the solar storm's speed.

[Elroy Jetson]

The CrowdStrike Falcon platform now provides safeguards for NVIDIA NIM Agent Blueprints, which are reference applications that use Nvidia’s NIM microservices and its NeMo platform, as part of Nvidia’s enterprise software stack.

In cooperation with Nvidia this allows developers to securely use open-source foundational models and accelerate innovation in generative AI.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crowdstrike-adds-new-safeguards-for-nvidia-s-ai-resources-4f537482

NVDA and CRWD report their earnings after the market's close tomorrow

[santafe2]

Video of solar storms from the International Space Station.

https://www.tiktok.com/@scientificamerican/video/7403388036903423278

[dexprs]

O is in the process of breaking out and is above 62, there was bigger volume pushing the price up around 58-60, but still strong.

[dexprs]

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/27/harris-republicans-endorse-bush-mccain-romney

More than 200 staffers who worked for George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), and late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid in a letter, arguing another Trump presidency would "irreparably damage our beloved democracy."

Why it matters: The open letter backing the Democratic ticket and lambasting former President Trump further highlights the ongoing fissures in the Republican party over the persistent influence of the MAGA movement.

Flashback: Several dozen George W. Bush, Romney and McCain staffers united behind similar initiatives to elect President Biden in 2020, but this year, at least five former staffers of George H.W. Bush also signed on to the letter, which was first published Monday by USA Today

[dexprs]

Bought back the remaining 5 Covered Calls in PEP in order to close one of my weaker positions. It was for a slight gain.

[dexprs]

Bought back 15 Calls in PFE after 8 days for +12%.

[dexprs]

Nvidia results could spur record $300 billion swing in shares, options show
REUTERS 12:29 PM ET 8/27/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
NVDA 128.38up +1.92 (+1.5183%)
NFLX 705.4538down +17.0138 (+2.4714%)
MRK 115.34down -0.93 (-0.7999%)
QUOTES AS OF 12:35:39 PM ET 08/27/2024
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders in the U.S. equity options market are expecting Nvidia's(NVDA) upcoming earnings report to spark a more than $300 billion swing in the shares of the world's most dominant artificial intelligence chipmaker.

Options pricing shows that traders anticipate a move of around 9.8% in the company's shares on Thursday, a day after it reports earnings, data from analytics firm ORATS showed. That's larger than the expected move ahead of any Nvidia(NVDA) report over the last three years and well above the stock's average post-earnings move of 8.1% over that same period, according to ORATS.

Given Nvidia's(NVDA) market capitalization of about $3.11 trillion, a 9.8% swing in the shares would translate to about $305 billion, likely the largest expected earnings move for any company in history, analysts said.

Such a move would dwarf the market capitalization of 95% of S&P 500 constituents, including Netflix(NFLX) and Merck(MRK), according to LSEG data.

The results from Nvidia(NVDA), whose chips are widely seen as the gold standard in artificial intelligence, also have big implications for the broader market. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 18% year-to-date gain.

"It alone has been a huge contributor to the overall profitability of the S&P 500," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. "It's the Atlas holding up the market."

Options pricing suggests traders are more concerned about missing out on a large upside move from Nvidia(NVDA) than getting hurt by a large drop.

Traders are assigning a 7% chance the stock rises more than 20% by Friday, while only a giving a 4% probability to a more than 20% sell-off, according to a Susquehanna Financial analysis of options data.

"(Ahead of earnings) people typically want to buy hedges, they want to buy insurance, but in Nvidia's(NVDA) case, a lot of that insurance is FOMO insurance," Sosnick said, referring to the popular acronym for "fear of missing out."

"They don't want to miss a rally."

Part of the reason options traders are pricing this large a move for Nvidia(NVDA) has to do with how volatile the company's shares have been in the past.

Nvidia's (NVDA) average 30-day historical volatility this year - a measure of how much the stock has gyrated over a rolling 30-day period - is about twice the average of the same measure for all other companies with market caps higher than $1 trillion, according to a Reuters analysis of Trade Alert data.

"The options are just reflecting how the stock is actually moving," said Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, which makes markets in the securities of Nvidia(NVDA).

"(It's) is just a function of continued uncertainty/optimism with regards to AI and the ultimate size of the opportunity coupled with NVDA having become such a widely followed stock among institutional and retail," he said.


(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Jonathan Oatis)

[dexprs]

Sold a Covered Call in PODD and 10 in JD.
Also: Added STRL, DEC, LYTS, PDS.
Sold IMMR 500 shares for a 40% loss, waited too long.

[dexprs]

I plan to buy back the NVDA 10 Puts, but keep the 10 Covered Calls through the earnings from NVDA.

[dexprs]

Most people have a tragedy in life at one point, but it is what we do afterwards that either breaks us or makes us stronger.
Good point Eric.

[dexprs]

There is a strong possibility that dealers and Algos will have a "fake" sell off after the NVDA report after the close tomorrow. Just so they can buy NVDA about 10-15 dollars lower.

[Elroy Jetson]

Canadian, European and American tariffs on China's electric auto exports are designed to ensure that virtually no buyers pay the prohibitively expensive import duties on Chinese electric vehicles.

We need to help China transition to a more balanced economy based primarily on domestic consumption, like the rest of the world and it's going to get very costly for them because they're making the wrong decisions.

China has reached the point where their labor costs are no longer low enough to attract out-sourcing with 30% unemployment among citizens under age 30. Having prohibited their citizens from exporting their capital China has now placed 42% of their retirement funds into rapidly depreciating empty homes, most in empty cities, nearly 3 homes for each family in China with a declining population size - it's a catastrophe. 40% of the stations on China's main high-speed rail line were closed in 2017 and remain closed.

It's a typical result of incompetent centrally planned communist economics.

Rather than invest in local consumption, China has doubled-down on investing in offensive military capability and actions, attracting Tesla, then copying Tesla's techniques and subsidizing their electric car industry, which provides no environmental benefits because all of their electric cars are all coal-powered. China has also taken similar offensive actions in the tech industry, so we've cut them off from buying new chip making equipment.

Having declared war on the developed world rather than becoming a partner, China will be paying a very heavy price.

They'll end up a stagnant empty shell of an economy similar to what Japan became but with a tiny fraction of Japan's per capita wealth.

The result of making bad choices is always very sad.

[santafe2]

I've one other OT comment and then I've got to get back to work. Some people go through deep tragedies in their life and it makes them a stronger, better person. I think Biden is an example of that. Others go through deep tragedies in their lives and it destroys them. Robert Kennedy Jr. is an example. A decade ago he was managing relatively well but now at 70 he's just unhinged. I find it sad.

[santafe2]

I was wondering this morning if DT is just going to keep doing nothing but whine and feel sorry for himself then I saw this cartoon. It made me laugh out loud. I know, the comparison is unfair to pigs. Can you imagine working on his team and trying to get him up each day to actually do the work?

[dexprs]

It all sounds nice and strong, but the buyers of the cars will pay for it.

[santafe2]

In case any readers here are thinking BitCoin is the 'safe' one and might be a good investment, see this from the European Central Bank:

Bitcoin has failed on the promise to be a global decentralised digital currency and is still hardly used for legitimate transfers. The latest approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not suitable as means of payment or as an investment.

That seems fairly clear.

[santafe2]

From CNBC:

Canada imposes a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, matching the U.S.

Canada’s government on Monday announced it is imposing a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles that matches U.S. tariffs and follows similar plans announced by the European Commission.

The announcement followed encouragement by U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and cabinet ministers on Sunday. Sullivan is set to make his first visit to Beijing on Tuesday.

Trudeau said Canada also will impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum.

“Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace,” he said.

There was no immediate response from China.

Chinese officials are likely to raise concerns about American tariffs with Sullivan as Beijing continues to repair its economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. U.S. President Joe Biden in May slapped major new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment.

“The U.S. does believe that a united front, a coordinated approach on these issues benefits all of us,” Sullivan told reporters on Sunday.

Biden has said Chinese government subsidies for EVs and other consumer goods ensure that Chinese companies don’t have to turn a profit, giving them an unfair advantage in global trade.

Chinese firms can sell EVs for as little as $12,000. China’s solar cell plants and steel and aluminum mills have enough capacity to meet much of the world’s demand. Chinese officials argue their production keeps prices low and would aid a transition to the green economy.

“We’re doing it in alignment, in parallel, with other economies around the world that recognize that this is a challenge that we are all facing,” Trudeau said of the new tariffs. “Unless we all want to get to a race to the bottom, we have to stand up.”

The only Chinese-made EVs currently imported into Canada are from Tesla, made at the company’s Shanghai factory.

Canada “had to go with the U.S. position, when you think about the economic integration that we have with the U.S. More than 75% of our exports go to the U.S.,” said a former Canadian ambassador to China, Guy Saint-Jacques. “This reflects the fear that the next president of the United States might be Donald Trump, and so they know we have to be pretty much aligned in all of this.”

Saint-Jacques said Canada can expect retaliation from China in other industries, adding that barley and pork are candidates because the Chinese can get it from other countries.

“China will want to send a message,” he said.

[dexprs]

Sold: TWLO, NFG.
Added: NOW, SPOT, IBKR, SUPV, CRNC, HCA.
Bought back JD 10 Covered Calls for a 66% gain.
Also, bought back LMT 3 Puts.
Received AMZN 500 shares as a Put to me at $180, I plan on selling them this week.