Market Sense and Sentiment (MKTSS)

[RCKS]

Hi Bob

Just trying to make contact.

I doubt you will even see this as you haven't posted since this post in 2012.

Hope you are in good health, given the health scare we have going on these days

[bbgold]

Changing the Statistics?
It is interesting that the fact the Labor statistics have been constantly reshuffled to bring in better numbers? It has been pointed out that the 'numbers' have been adjusted at different times to show to be the Best they can be? Why has this been important during this election year? The reason is that No President has been re-elected when the unemployment rate was Above 8. So is it just a coincidence that right before the elections the unemployment rate suddenly finally dips below 8?
What do you think?
Have a wonderful weekend!

[bbgold]

The APPL/GOOG Bubble?
How many remember the MSFT Bubble back in 2000/2001?
A ton of stocks were tied to technology and when MSFT tanked the Market tanked.
Now we have a situation where the Markets are tied to specific stocks again? This time it is due to weighting of those stocks to the Indices.
If you cannot remember 2000/2001 then perhaps 2008 is still in your memory?
If we take a look at where the Markets and GOOG are at now does anything look familiar?
Again, use Caution on Longs, Set Stops, Be Safe!
Have a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

Selloff could start Now?
Looking like an intraday double top and short term lower high so far with support only slightly below where we are at, 13500. If the support level fails then it could be the start of another breakdown in the Markets. From the TNX breakdown money is already coming out of the Market. Use Caution on Longs, set Stops.
Winter is Coming, be Safe.

[Toofuzzy]

No I don't see labor costs going up either. That makes my point. We will gradually become more competitive over time. As long as the value of our currency does not go up in relation to others.

Toofuzzy

[bbgold]

If Ponzi had a Fed

Lets see, the US sells bonds to raise money to keep the Govt being able to spend. The funds raised from the bond sales also go to pay off the previous bonds sold. So prior bond purchasers are being paid off by new bond purchasers. Usually there are many buyers but lately the number one buyer has been the US itself. In order to buy it's own bonds the Govt just prints more money and continues to devalue the $. The reason for keeping the Bond purchases going is to try and keep interest rates down. Otherwise with less buyers the US would have to raise interest rates to attract buyers, much as Greece did. But in order to keep the economy moving the Govt wants low interest rates to keep people spending rather than saving. This will create an economic bubble as the debt increases but the US is Gambling that the debts will never be called in and that it will not have to raise interest rates to keep selling Bonds to be able to keep spending. We have all seen what problems the prior Market and Housing bubbles have created. Now what will happen when the current Economic bubble breaks?
"An economic bubble: A bubble is similar to a Ponzi scheme in that one participant gets paid by contributions from a subsequent participant (until inevitable collapse). A bubble involves ever-rising prices in an open market (for example stock, housing, or tulip bulbs) where prices rise because buyers bid more because prices are rising. Bubbles are often said to be based on the "greater fool" theory. As with the Ponzi scheme, the price exceeds the intrinsic value of the item, but unlike the Ponzi scheme, there is no single person misrepresenting the intrinsic value."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

[bbgold]

Not true

There will Always be cheaper labor overseas or south of the border.
The devalued $ might make some American products cheaper for people overseas but has that ever really been a problem? The problem has always been overseas products being produced cheaper and sold cheaper in the US. The result was US manufacturers moved their production out of the US to take advantage of the same. The only jobs that might come back to the US are growth from Government jobs from Government spending. Now if we want to follow the example of the continued bailouts then eventually the US will be a socialist state where every big business is Govt owned and operated. I remember reading somewhere Obama made a comment about Cuba having a good economy? There is no way we will be able to keep up with Chinese production where their motto has always been more for less. Now that is becoming the mantra for the US$, paying more for less. I certainly have not seen any wages going up to match the inflation in living costs? Have you?

[Toofuzzy]

>>>>So this continual devaluing of the $ is good for the economy How? Stocks and Commodities will rise as it will continue to take more $ to purchase them as the $ declines.<<<<<

If the dollar goes lower against other currencies it will gradually bring more jobs back to the US

Either Chinese need to make more or we need to make less to be competitive.

Toofuzzy

[bbgold]

Bernanke says What?
So the Govt will keep purchasing Bonds to keep $ flowing for Govt spending? So the Govt will print more $ to keep being able to spend $ to purchase their own Bonds to keep spending? So this continual devaluing of the $ is good for the economy How? Stocks and Commodities will rise as it will continue to take more $ to purchase them as the $ declines. No one is mentioning Inflation or that the Govt is driving it? The only concern seems to be that the Govt will keep spending $ to keep things afloat? This can't go on forever and once the boat springs a leak there will be some rapid sinking imo.
Be Safe!

[bbgold]

Another Potential Bearish Rollover
Once again MKTSS is seeing a potential rollover of the 100sma from support to resistance, a potential short/puts signal.
You can see the support at 13120 for now, 1300 critical imo.
Use caution on Longs here as with the last potential breakdown we seemed to get a false rally that gave us this topping action again.
First one was the warning?
Good Trading and have a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

Unemployment/Payroll numbers, we know
Markets rally here ahead of tomorrow's number? Just another False rally?
"The current 8.2% figure you hear about so often is wildly inaccurate and doesn't fairly reflect the true state of the nation's labor force. It's a deficiency that Wall Street-types have long adjusted for with a wink-wink sort of acceptance, knowing full well that the so-called "U-3" headline number is actually a quagmire of exclusions and adjustments that under-reports the real situation by as much as 50%"
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/unemployment-rate-farce-needs-fixing-rep-duncan-hunter-113437674.html?l=1

[bbgold]

Indexpulse potential Bearish Rollover
The INDU is showing the potential for a Bearish Rollover here with the 100sma changing from support to resistance. This would normally be taken as a Short/Puts signal if the 100sma fails to recover support and maintains resistance.
Let's see how tomorrow trades eh?

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
Had to be a way from market much of today but I think it has a little more down but should bounce soon and I think it will be a wave 2 up and it could be a doozy but shouldn't take too long to complete. The ECB meeting overnight Tues. I think could see somekind of attempt to stem the panic over there and may give us the wave 2 up but this drop is likely far from over.

[bbgold]

Thanks Steve, looks good
I am wondering if we might have ended the minor 3 or even i today?
Looking at this INDU chart we 'could' be at the mirror of last June as far as MAs/BBs and price pattern?
Seeing the surge in Gold and the Euro and the Markets on Ignore mode today it makes me wonder what will be in store for us on Monday?
I closed my Bear trades and was tempted to go Long near the close but will wait to see if Monday is a flat open. We could either continue down until Wed or bounce into Wed from here.
Either way I will be Cash for the weekend and nothing to worry about.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!

[RCKS]

I don't think there is any question the Euro zone is a mess and without political unification, it will break up.
Here is Pretzels view in chart form.

[bbgold]

Eurozone Unemployment rises to 11%
Here is the link and part of the story.
Is it where the US is heading?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-unemployment-rises-record-105005118.html?l=1
"The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro zone reached 11 percent in March and April, the highest since the start of the data in 1995, Eurostat, the European statistical agency said in Luxembourg. The previous record had been 10.9 percent in February, Eurostat said, after it revised March’s figure upward from the 10.9 percent initially estimated.
“We have an economy that’s freezing up, it’s clearly not creating jobs,” Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank in London, said. “But right now policy makers’ main concern is to ensure that the peripheral countries’ governments and banks can stay afloat. Given that, the real economic data is taking a back seat.”
But before long, he said, unemployment “is going to be a major problem for those countries,” as it rises to the top of the political agenda and further complicates the financial problems."

[RCKS]

you as well Bob

[bbgold]

Thanks Steve, looks good
So far looking like a possible repeat of the yellow box breakdown.
Last year the Markets sold into the second week of June and they are heading that way again if another breakdown at these levels. I would not be surprised to see a breakdown of 1300 end up testing 1250, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!

[RCKS]

Here is pretzel's chart for today.
He is leaning towards the alternate count as pokersam thought he would.

[bbgold]

Richmond Manufacturing Index
Out today but not listed on most Finance websites?
Prior 14 Anticipated 12 Actual 4
In May, the seasonally adjusted composite index of
manufacturing activity—our broadest measure of
manufacturing—fell ten points to 4 from April’s
reading of 14. Among the index’s components,
shipments declined eighteen points to 0 and new
orders dropped twelve points to end at 1, while the
jobs index moved up six points to 16.
Most other indicators also suggested weaker
activity.
http://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/2012/pdf/mfg_05_22_12.pdf

[bbgold]

Potential Trading pattern?
Have seen the 'cliff' on the Intraday carry over to mirror the longer term charts.
Where are we going if this Intraday trading pattern transfers over?
So far we only have the small downtrend test eh?

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1388-1384-1388
A little hitch up on the Euro with better than expected Retail Sales out at 5am. Prior was -0.2, Anticipated 0.1% and Actual was 0.3%.
A considerable jump so wondering now if Euro is starting the Numbers pump?
Big numbers for the US Markets will be the UnEmployment rate due at 8:30 am.
If we follow the DAX/FTSE it could be a nice whiplash day?
I still think the whiplash is uncertainty and that usually leads to selling, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

ISM 35th Consecutive month Positive?
This is directly from their website
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the 33rd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 35th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

So has anyone else seen the economy getting better the last 35 Months? Again I say manipulation of the Numbers.
Be Safe!

[bbgold]

Old Market Mantra 'Sell in May and Stay Away!'
Another opportunity to take profits here if long, set stops, etc

[bbgold]

The Government will Save us
That seemed to be the mantra yesterday as the Fed spent Billions and the Markets extended itself on the devalued dollar. The housing sales numbers Looked good and rising house prices also extend the myth of a strong economy when the actual picture is a weak dollar.
The old school rhetoric would say 'put your money into something that will maintain value, ie hard assets' and that is what has been happening with the Markets and properties lately. As the dollar continued to slide lower the amount of dollars needed to purchase those hard assets like stocks, gold, commodities, properties all rose over the last few months. The strength of the Nation used to be the strength of it's currency but in this cyber century the virtual funds that keep things moving are all that matters. If gasoline is $5 and bread is $5 it won't matter as the Government will just keep printing money to keep the supply chain going and money in circulation. Now does that sound like any type of Real solution to keep the Markets and the Economy up? Real equals Reality and the World economic problems cannot be swept away by a spend spend mentality, at least not permanently.
Be Safe and have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

Diverging Interests in Holdings
You can see in the TNX spike yesterday when the Markets had their big jump up the outflow of cash from Bonds to the Markets. In most any other chart analysis this would be seen as an exhaustion spike high. Today's complete reversal showing money out of the Markets and into Bonds is not reflected in the Markets action today as the Markets are still trying to hold positive. This Divergence of Interest in where the Money is flowing has, in the past, shown the TNX to be the leading indicator of where Cash is moving to. I believe this is again a sign that the Markets are weaker here than they appear to be. Whether yesterday's spikes in the TNX and Markets will indeed be the Exhaustion move to the upside here we will have to see. In my humble opinion I believe that any Topside is done here and a selloff into the end of May is possible.
Use some Caution on Longs, set stops and lock in profits where appropriate.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

Extremely Negative Econ News=Markets Up?
I am just about to give up on how the Markets are reacting here.
To me this should be the Last Hurrah with the way the Econ news has been steadily declining but the Markets are in Ignore mode today and I don't doubt that Bernanke will blow some smoke up the Markets today also. Still not sure when the Markets get back to Reality but as stated before it won't be pretty. If you are on the Up train then I would take this opportunity to lock in any profits, jmho.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

Continuing Claims/Unemployment Rate
Doesn't anyone question that the reason these are dropping is because the government extensions are finally ending and the number of people being finally dropped from Claims/Unemployed are equal to the reduction in these two numbers? Let's see, government extends benefits into the election year so that when they are finally dropped the Claims/Unemployment numbers will show a reduction when they want them to. Oh Yeah, the economy is not getting better but the Numbers look good. The other economic numbers that cannot be as easily manipulated are not getting better. Why do the Markets continue to rally on false numbers and how long will it last?
Not much longer imo, be Safe!

[bbgold]

Another Umemployment pump up?
I am still wondering when the Markets get back to reality. As was seen in the last 2 ISM number releases there are significant differences in the Numbers being posted out. In my opinion there are attempts being made to make things look better than they are. Every now and then a True number will come out and the Markets reaction will certainly not be Positive anymore. Rather than looking at the current Employment numbers, that most everyone agrees is adjusted to a Better number before being released, let's look at current workforce participation. This is the Percentage of Workers that are currently Participating 63.9%. You can see in the last 4 Years there has been a significant decline.
When will the Reality of the current economic situation set in?
I think more quickly than most anticipate, we shall see.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

[bbgold]

Richmond Manufacturing Grossly Negative
You won't see it mentioned anywhere as it 'supposedly' has no effect on the Markets. It can be an insight into the next ISM numbers that come out. The Richmond index is Fed District 5 consisting of the Virginia's, Carolina's, Maryland and DC. It would be surprising to see the President mention it as it is the index for the states surrounding the Capitol. The prior reading was a 20, anticipated was 18 and the actual is a 7. Now to me that is some considerably Negative results and you probably won't hear about it.
Good Trading and be Safe!
9:59am Richmond Manufacturing Index Actual 7 Anticipate 18 Prior 20

[bbgold]

Reversal started after 4am
Euro was a Sell the News on Germany business climate staying flat.
The Pump started just after the selloff and then spiked up on Bernanke speech at 8am, which also started to sell at first.
What created the Pump after the 4am selloff is what I want to know?
Why the big Buy spike on the Bernanke statement?
Either there was some leak to Bernanke statements or the PPT was in full buy mode already?
Looks like nothing more than a false rally to me.
Grossly Negative home sales numbers were ignored -0.5% 1.0% 2.0%
TNX didn't participate today either, we shall see.
4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 109.8 109.7 109.7
Euro

[RCKS]

Bob
Bernanke whispered there will be more QE. There may not be because he gets the reaction he wants by just mentioning it.... LOL.
Strange world we live in but you can't blame the market for reacting and trying to stay in front of what it thinks is going to happen.

A few years out (2017 or so) we will look back on this and appreciate they didn't let this become a great depression but in truth it will take years into the future to recover from all this floating everything forward.

[bbgold]

Rally on Negative news?
Home sales numbers came out waay lower than anticipated, yet the Markets rally on it?
Date Time Release Impact For Feb Actual Expected Prior
Mar 26 10AM Pending Home Sales -0.5% 0.5% 1.9%
Can we say Manipulation yet?
Markets will fall fast and hard eventually, but not as long as there are Euros propping it up.
Notice I didn't say USD$ propping it up?
Or at least not average peoples $ eh
Something is Wrong here?

[bbgold]

PPT working overtime?
I don't see any news for the morning Euro reversal?
Markets are not making any sense to me.
What is going on other than pure manipulation?
I still think Euro false rally here and reality will be a big selloff, we shall see, jmho
Have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

The reality is manipulation imo
Most all the Econ numbers are adjusted to look good imo.
All I see around where I live is more and more closed/vacant buildings and more people out of work. Since Christmas the stores are empty. If there is some kind of economic recovery it sure has not found it's way here yet.
Still watching today to see if some relief rally but so far we did not see the same dip buying strength as on the last pullbacks.
1380 would be the support to watch tomorrow, then 1360/1340.
If we get a pullback below 1340 then I think any next rally attempt will get sold off hard, jmho.
April 15th is usually Market top for the year and this year it might be a lower high selloff from there, we shall see.
Enjoy the Evening!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
I'm not too sure about reality??? Mine or the markets but there is a bearish tone to trading the last couple days but I don't trust what I see too much in regards Bearishness.... hahaha
Here is the Daily spx and we may close below the midtine of the Fork today, a little bearish and maybe more important we may get a PhaseI tomorrow if spend all day tomorrow below the UTL (11ema,high)

[bbgold]

Morning Steve, thanks
Yes, I will be watching that trendline.
I noticed the other day the INDU broke the MKTSS 100sma and is looking like a rollover. Euro/FTSE/Gold are all down this am but we have some more unemployment news coming out this am.
It will be time to see if yet once again the Markets ignore the news and continue to rally or if things get back in sync with reality?
Enjoy the Day!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
Weird busy week for me and just now finding time to look at the market much. Hope all is well with you and remember to breathe when things are stressful...
Here is my 60 min spx chart and the interesting thing here is that the uppertine on this fork anchored on the low of 2/10/12 seems to be supporting price in a clear way and until that gives, its pretty hard to be bearish much.

[bbgold]

On the road, topping candles DAX/FTSE?
So far the Euro markets were showing some topping candles but I see now some spike high this am? Not sure why the spike?
No time to follow what is going on, just getting a glimpse every now and then.
Good Trading and have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

3 pm was Fed announce?
Not around enough during the day to see what is happening.
Mentioned before the euphoria spread by rumor of Good News when the truth is Negative. Everyone dancing in the streets 'wall street' right before the meltdown. So far that is certainly the way it appears the Markets are reacting.
Yes, lowered volatility compared to Novemeber, with the exception of this week.
Will have to see if the opposing red/white latest big candles are a change of direction cross or not.
The Mirror would be a 2 day retest of 1370 and then a 2 months slide to downside.
Mirror Mirror on the chart, when will the Markets reverse the direction of the cart?
Uphill is usually a struggle, Downhill could pick up a lot of momentum, we shall see.

[RCKS]

Bob IMO charts currently do not look like the Oct/Nov period. The rise out of the oct lows does not look like this rise, at least to me it doesn't. Ahead of that top we had a couple of huge sell off days in that rise, I don't see that kind of profit taking here. Let me add one thing about this week, this is expiration week and when we get moves like this they often go further then one might imagine due to the delta hedging going on propelling the market further in the direction it is moving.

[bbgold]

I agree on the Melt up
I am still leaning towards the retest of the trendline as resistance as a potential Melt down point, similar to Nov.
Only thing to negate that might be that we have a new high here, but new highs are also 'potential' profit taking tops, so we shall see.

[RCKS]

Its entirely possible we are in the midst of pretty decent meltup in equity prices. The VIX is saying it. This week should be bumpy because it is expiration but I think we see 1400 next week easily.

[bbgold]

Market disconnect Euro/Gold
Is this the potential trading pattern we are due for?
I think it is highly possible.
Us Caution, set Stops or take an Exit imo
Have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

Similar to Nov now
Redraw the trendline to show the back test here?
Complete disconnect the Markets to the Euro/Gold right now

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
I don't know if this current correction is complete but it looks like it might be. One way to look at it, the Ted Line held at 1338.80 on this drop and that is very bullish.
Here is the weekly chart which I just posted at northam's request on snoot's thread, so I will post it here. We are forming a very bullish weekly candle (sledge hammer, anyone?), these are the forks I have on my daily chart but they sure look steep here but lets see what happens going forward.
Be careful fighting the tape just because you feel the market is manipulated.... that has been the case for awhile and I do not see changing anytime soon...

[bbgold]

Markets should be Done
Yesterday's employment numbers were ignored. Today's payroll numbers were low, but above set 'anticipated'. I don't like the way the numbers are being manipulated and adjusted and ignored. At some point the Markets will come back to reality, hopefully sooner than later. If things continue on this path we will get another significant selloff as in 2008.
Remember to be Safe with your trades and Set stops.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

1340 support for now
I would love to see a retest of 1320 tomorrow but uncertain if it happens. The breakdowns can happen fast though so a gap down to 1300 is a possibility. Exited 1/5 my SPXU position but holding the rest overnight.
Yes, Max Pain tomorrow could see either a quick gap down and rally, or a spike up that sells. Any spike up that sells would more than likely lead to more selling pressure.
Yesterday the INDU was out of sync with the other Markets with it's gap down and rally day. I will keep watching for those out of sync days that could point to potential trend reversals overnight.
Good Trading!

[RCKS]

Here is my spy 60 min chart in screencast showing the whole fork and then the chart in more close up live.

http://screencast.com/t/lPbF3gjY

[RCKS]

Gap should not be filled today, that would be ultra Bullish. If we close near lows and trade lower tomorrow on WWW. The odds of a bounce Thurs go way up.