Kuwl's Position Swings & Bullish Trenders (KUWL)

[UpTickMeA$AP]

$WMIH waking up.. yesterday golden cross.. New Hedgies joining.. M&A coming soon very possibly.

Glta

[kuwlness]

Out DXM June $10 Calls. Waiting for a dip to reload and maybe push out to September $15 Calls

[kuwlness]

Long positions:

$Y.to (by way of warrants, ticker = $YLWWF)
$DXM (by way of June Call Options, $7.50 & $10)


Still holding trades in:

$WMIH -- think this goes higher, added as recently as $3.21 earlier this week
$AIBYY -- added more at $2.15, but if market corrects, i'll ditch this quick as banks will get hit hard imo


Also, not really technical trades, mostly just want some medical marijuana exposure:

$AXXU -- low float
$ERBB -- #wolfpack play, giving it a shot (also looking at taking a position in $SPLI)


Have a great weekend all

[kuwlness]

$DXM -- beautiful move. Lovin' my June $7.50 and $10 Calls ... so much so that I added more today. Cya at $15 later this year

[kuwlness]

$SPY -- Gap filled, let's see where the market wants to go from here.

[kuwlness]

What's the story on IFON?

-- Nice little WMIH shake-out thanks to FMCC fiasco. Scooped up some $3.21s. Put in a large buy order that only got partially filled. Wish i was quicker on the trigger, though, would've liked more

[kuwlness]

$AIBYY -- Daily chart

Took a starter today at $2.16 for 3k shares. Looking to load up under $2.20 before she runs -- Mental stop-loss at $2.00 for Max 10% Risk. 20%+ up-side imo

[UpTickMeA$AP]

Got ya. Vice grip Imo. Gltu on your others.

Glta

[kuwlness]

Still long 5K shares of WMIH from my initial Buy Call at $2.75 ... I update the board when i sell/close positions

[UpTickMeA$AP]

I don't see $WMIH on that list.

Also, IFON is a mover.



Glta

[kuwlness]

TRADE RADAR -- 3/6

* = denotes favorites


MBLX
RGSE
TAS
TPCS *
TTNP *
WYY *



China:
CAAS
CHNR *
CHOP
CSUN * (solar sector is hot)
GPRC
GSI
GURE
XNY
YGE

[kuwlness]

SIFY finally moving. Lots of opportunity cost spent waiting for this one and averaging down in the low $2s. Let's see $2.50!

[kuwlness]

Money is continuing to flow into Bonds and Commodities. Seeing a cycle rotation starting to take place. Does not bode well for stocks.

I'm skeptically bullish as I don't believe the top for the market is actually in just yet. However, with the global turmoil escalating, it is certainly becoming unnerving.

[UpTickMeA$AP]

Nom nom WMIH. IFON a mover. FnF plays.

Board marked.

Glta

[kuwlness]

Added more WMIH:

WMIH - 02:10:38
Bought 1000s @ $2.70 - Total: $2,707.00

[kuwlness]

Begin WMIH Bull Pennant Break-out

In at $2.75:
WMIH - 01:40:50
Bought 1400s @ $2.75 - Total: $3,850.00


Daily Chart:

[kuwlness]

End STRI -- no movement. Out at $1.49 for loss of .04 on 3000 shares and .01 on 1500 shares.

-$135

[kuwlness]

$SPX -- Probably need to pullback to test the 50-day. Stocks look overbought and short-term exhausted.

Looking for a pullback to S&P 1815-1822 area.

[kuwlness]

TRADE RADAR -- These all hit my screener and seem to be breaking out:


GGS
ACW
CUR
EMKR
FVRG
VPIG

China Stocks:
BORN
KGJI

[kuwlness]

Hold trading positions in STRI and SIFY. -- Adding more SIFY tomorrow if it's still in the single-digit $2s. -- STRI not moving, just churning. Giving it a few more days.

[kuwlness]

$SIFY -- Added 1000 more at $2.04

[kuwlness]

STRI -- added more @ $1.50

[kuwlness]

$SIFY -- In at $2.08


Daily Chart:

[kuwlness]

STRI Daily CHART

Using ~$1.40 as my [mental] Stop-Loss. $1.60 is break-out point imo

[kuwlness]

Been away for a while. Took some lumps (more like broke every bone possible) in 2010/2011 -- ya live & ya learn. Had to take some time off to re-capitalize so to speak.


Back to the Basics:
Technical swing trading to create more capital to invest in long-term.


Round 2 ... FIGHT

[kuwlness]

Dont panic unless we break 1249. Ideally we rally back to 1294 after testing the 1250 area for a 3rd time. This fits the pattern of what's referred to as a double-three corrective pattern.

The bullish scenario is ths double-three corrective pattern in which case we rally to 1294, put in a higher low (higher than 1250), then rally back to our previous highs (1360 area).

Bearish scenario is we break 1249 and panic ensues leading to another Flash Crash. Keep tight stops!!

[kuwlness]

Buy the upper 1280 area of the S&P ... look for a bounce back to 1320-1333, then short again.

[kuwlness]

Now looking for a rally to S&P 1325-1333 area after a back-test to 1300 or so. Then a drop back to S&P 1285 area, then rally to new highs (1375 or so) for completion of our bull market rally. Likely all down hill from there.

[kuwlness]

Looking for a bounce back to the S&P 1306-1312 area. Then I see two possible scenarios from there:

1) Back-test S&P 1294 and rally to new highs.

OR

2) Break 1294 and back-test 200-day and/or S&P 1250 area ultimately rallying back to 1294 one more time for final confirmation of upcoming bear market.


Better to wait for confirmation for the big trade and just play the momentum bounces/channels for the time being.

[Traderfan]

Chart looks crappy now. Fresh SADX to the downside a few days ago. I'm actually surprised that you seem that positive for a new high on the year now that the chart looks really bad. QE2 is also finished and that was the only real driver for the markets. IMO

[kuwlness]

Out at $75.05 for now. I'm hoping we get a back-test on the S&P to 1280 one more time and it holds. If so, i'll look to go long for a push back to the 50-day.

[kuwlness]

Added TNA today at $73.10. Could see more weakness in the morning tomorrow, so i only added a half position. Seems like the flush-out should be complete now.

Looking for a rally back to the 50-day now, then pull-back to 1305-1315 area, then final push to new highs likely completing our final move higher.

GLTA.

[kuwlness]

Best trade for now is no trade but I intend to go short if we struggle to hold S&P 1312. Looking for a dip to 1275-1280 area if 1312 fails to hold.

Ultimately, if 1280 area holds, it's a huge buying opportunity for what'll likely be a significant rally for our final thrust higher.

Break 1250 and Wall Streets fun has officially come to an end.

[kuwlness]

S&P needs to stay above 1312. If 1312 fails, watch out for another Flash Crash. We filled the gap from a few weeks ago and found buyers at the gap, which is somewhat bullish. Lets see where we go from here. Should have direction before the week is over.

[kuwlness]

Buy a back-test to 1332 if we get one tomorrow

[kuwlness]

Back to full-on Bullish at this point. I'd like to see us get back above 1350 for confirmation, but looking at the commodities space, i think it's likely we complete our final push to our objective target of appx 1435. I'll update when the technicals change/confirm where we're likely heading. GLTA

[kuwlness]

Ideally we stay above 1325, but it's still possible we see a back-test at that 1294 area. Still looking for 1435 or so on the S&P if the bullish scenarios play-out.

There is a potential bearish scenario, but it seems unlikely considering the circumstances; however, the weekly charts do look fairly bearish at this point, so i'm not ruling out that the top is in, i just think it's highly unlikely.

[kuwlness]

I'm looking for a back-test to 1340, then the final push to 1435. IMO, buy any pullbacks using 1325 as your stop-loss. GLTA

[kuwlness]

Look for one final test slightly below 1300 -- likely that ominous 1294 area. Odds are this will be your last large buying opportunity for the final push to the 1430 area. I'll be looking to go long TNA near S&P 1300 for the hefty 130 point push.

After the 1430 target is reached (if the reverse head & shoulders pattern plays out), then you'll want to go with TZA or SPXU and go heavy short the market. I'll keep everyone posted with what the likely scenarios are over the next few weeks, we should definitely have the direction towards the end of this month.

If we break 1353 before drifting lower, then just go long for the final push to 1430. GLTA

[kuwlness]

I think you go long here and ride this final push to the S&P 1420 area. Likely all down hill after that.

[thumper1]

kuwlness: o like your insight...but what is "QE"

tia

Apparently Wall St is convinced that QE is in fact coming.

[kuwlness]

Chart Blast -- just posting a bunch of charts because my Stockcharts subscription is about to expire and i'm back to working full-time so I dont have as much time for trading to justify full subscription right now. Keeping these for easy access / reference:


$SPX - 60 min Candlesticks




$SPX - Daily Candlesticks




$NYAD - Daily Cumulative




$VIX - Daily Candlesticks




$VIX - Weekly Candlesticks




$COMPQ - Daily Candlesticks




$INDU - Daily Candlesticks




$CRX - Monthly Candlesticks




$SPX - Weekly Candlesticks




SPXU - Daily Candlesticks

[Traderfan]

Well I realize I repeat myself here but I think it's clear that one can't fight the FED. This market will not really go down as long as the FED is supporting it. No chance. News all around can't be worse than right now. Consumer sentiment at lows, housing data horrible, inflation creeping up, Japan, Lybia, umemployment at 9.5% and on and on and on.

As long as the FED supports a zero interest rate policy and as long as the QE is running we won't see the market going down unless we get another Japan like event. IMO

[kuwlness]

Well, we held the 1303 area nicely today. I'd say if we close above 1333, then the market is likely heading to new highs, probably near the 1400 area.

So, you got two levels. 1333 and 1303 ... whichever we break first is the direction we're heading over the next few weeks. Of course we could still put in a lower high if we use the 1333 area as our last lower high. But honestly, it's my belief that if we break 1333 that we're likely heading to 1400.

The market has literally defied logic, gravity, and reason. It's now up almost 6% since the lows set only ten days ago. Wall St is completely ignoring all the terrible economic data that we've been getting. Apparently Wall St is convinced that QE is in fact coming. Might as well kiss your US Dollars goodbye.

[kuwlness]

S&P 60-min suggests we've put in another lower High. The $VIX broke out of it's 60-min bullish falling wedge and the major indices broke down out of their bearish rising wedges.

If we're still in a Bull Market, the S&P will need to bounce off the 1303 area, worst-case the 1276 area. Otherwise, it's likely we've shifted and the new trend is down ... in which case we're looking for 1220 before a small bounce to possibly complete a speculative Head & Shoulders pattern.

S&P 60-min:

[Traderfan]

You might it might be a good idea to put on some more shorts during the weekend because of any possible bad news out of japan?

[kuwlness]

Looks like market liked the GDP revision. This area was my target, so lets see where we go from here. Looking for some more of today's gains to be given back by close although the S&P 5-min seems to be putting in a bull Flag. Looking for market reversal on Monday or Tuesday.

$VIX is breaking out of a bullish falling wedge on the 60-min chart while S&P and other major indices are bumping into upper portion of their bearish rising wedges.

Surprised the market is discounting the Japan nuclear situation so much, almost to the point that it's not even happening. And we just confirmation that the threat level has been raised to Level 7, same as Chernobyl. As well as reports of Yellow Rain in Tokyo, which also happened in Chernobyl shortly after the explosions. It should be a very interesting weekend of events to say the least.

Yellow Rain article: http://theintelhub.com/2011/03/24/yellow-rain-falls-in-tokyo/

[Traderfan]

Hanging around the 13.16 area now. Again up nicely. Now we will see what it does the rest of the day. Consumer sentiment at lows but the stock market is running. You can't fight Ben. Let's see.

[kuwlness]

Time to fire off the last of the Shorts here folks. 1306-1316 is the area i've been talking about for over a week. This is the prime time to load those Shorts and Short Options with little to no premium.

I'm quite convinced we fail in this area and head to new lows shortly thereafter.

[kuwlness]

You just gotta take profits off the table when we have those big flush-outs like last week. I only started re-adding my shorts heavily on Monday's pop. I'd say if we break and close above 1296 today, we'll definitely see 1305-1315 in coming days. That's when i plan to use the last of my money on shorting again.

This bull market has been running for a while, it's likely not going to just give in on the first big push by the bears. Gotta let the market make lower highs and lower lows, it's a natural process as the trend develops.

Just keep an eye on the ADX, it's one of your best friend