Index and $VIX Tops and Bottoms (No Pennies!!!!) ($SPXA50R)

[Toofuzzy]

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Toofuzzy

[michael03332002]

btw leaving for ft worth in a few minutes

I have just cancelled my subscription effective immediately

on IHUB

will still post and read, just dont have PM

FYI

[TeaCake]

Hard numbers (ha! right!)

Small 1949.76 (exceeded)
Medium 1994.12 (Done? If so, close enough.)
Large 2116.06 (If medium done(?) then cannot drop below 1954.09. If the medium is NOT done, then cannot drop below 1948.04.)

Thinking about leaving. Will be flat when I do.

So...y'all have fun (Just in case I slip out early.)

[TeaCake]

Do you watch your UWTI on 5min charts? 3 of 3 up? 5 of 3 up? Pretty RRC!

Edit - Backed off to 60min. Looks like 3 of 3? (or c?)

[TeaCake]

That is one view...

Another view is that they are VIX driven and there is still a lot of FUD (rightly so)...hence no movement. At this point, it is still undecided if that large degree structure is 123 or and abc. Even if and when it hits projections (2007?), it is such an area that it is 50/50 on the question. There can be no certainty until that large degree structure makes a 4 (area of previous lesser 4?). Actually, there is no certainty until there is a new ATH...but that it not a debate for 5/15 charts.<g>

That is where historical events (charts) have to flavor judgement. What has happened each and every UVXY spike? Is it going to be different this time? Could be...but the odds are....that there is going to be a lot of tequila swilling before we can answer that!

JMHO, of course!

Edit - do a little digging on XIV buying level by institutional buyers.

[michael03332002]

take a look at SVXY/UVXY

market is green yet SVXY underwater


Hmmm, the boyz hedging this rise?

me thinks so,


looking to get some TVIX in the 12's


thoughts?

[TeaCake]

It is a little presumptuous to draw a RRC for the large degree count.
Pretending it is still working on 4 of medium degree...but could hum along if it were singing 4 of large degree.
Whatever it is - either i and ii of it...
Or it is the ab of abc...anyone else as unsure of it as I am? (Which is why I am still using 5/15min charts to play)

Assuming medium RRC until it does something more than stick a tail outside...

[michael03332002]

what I was saying the other day

when the waters calm, hard to see the forest for the trees

but u da man

mr fisher MAN

[TeaCake]

I can't say I am sure that is the '4' of the larger or medium count...or even if we are still working on it.

Some really odd things on some indacators (5min of course)...at key points, it is like there is a push(?). Happens in both directions in key areas...that ???....maximize uncertainty?

Edit...well TeaCake...you are looking at 100+ moves in a day - on a 5min chart. Just what gave it away that you might be looking at something not normal??? Rocket scientist!

[442 oldsman]

Sorry 1st line is a 3 yr trendline on weekly chart(1st link post 1942), 2nd is small gap and previous hits on 15min chart past few days. I had expected to bust thru 1st today, but since it didn't, I'm watching to see which breaks on 15 min chart.

My bride and kids say I always jump into a conversation down stream of my thoughts, then have to back peddle to let one know which stream I started on.

I will figure out how to post a chart rather than a link.

[TeaCake]

Why is that the line in the sand? Fib point? Indicator I do not understand?

[michael03332002]

she is good

[442 oldsman]

Wow beautiful grips, talented artist.

[442 oldsman]

More lines in the sand.

http://prntscr.com/89lsfp

[michael03332002]

this is looking pretty intense

volume UP on the sell side

[442 oldsman]

I think we get a quick trip to at least test the lows, as they failed to test my line in the sand so far today.

I reserve the right to change direction and opinion on a dime.
Daddy always told me I was like a fly in the pasture, couldn't decide on one just go from one turd to the next. (oops might have left the door open......)

[TeaCake]

From this mornings (post 1943?)...

At some point, we are going to be looking at SPX and wondering if we are looking at a the right shoulder of a year wide HnS (for the traditional TA people) and or wondering if 1867 was/is an abc(A) of an even larger ABC...

That right shoulder would be 2020ish...so I ain't trying to sell either bull or bear since I don't believe in either one til I see it. That is why I am concerned with that 3 of 5 being 2008ish - that is a place to be surprised by a 3 turning out the be a C. I want my signposts for both views...til then, I stick to 5/15 minute charts.

We will see which one starts quacking...<g>

[michael03332002]

well yea

and then theres that

lol

[TeaCake]

That is one view...

Another view is that we launched from 1867 into the large 5 that will take SPX 2200-2500. (You can see everything in that range. I think my LT chart in stickies has 2268?)

As it relates to XIV - signposts for the 1 of 5waves would be...
Just using that 78% retrace # (20.84) since XIV/SPX agree...
1=7.29ish for 30.17ish...which is ballpark close to where we are
3=11.80 from wherever 2 ends
and 5=1 for 7.29 from end of 4...and we should be at that 43.xx I mentioned.

I like my signpost...early warning system when things screw up (check and balance for the various RRCs). My signposts are where I go, "Check. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck....I better quit swilling tequila."

Looking 4ish at the moment (allegedly)...which would be the large degree 4 previously mention. Hopefully, a 5 this afternoon/tomorrow to make me feel all warm and fuzzy....

Edit - the '2s' of the medium and large degree were fairly vicious - implies 4s will be tame? Flats?

[michael03332002]

well I dont think it hits it first

pullback 1995ish then 1970 ish

then bang kok

then DOWN SIDE elevator once they save their monthly

statements


gotta make a good improved showing into EOM right?

[TeaCake]

Either one of you two have any insight on what might be the correct view on XIV?

2014 bounced 65% before dropping again
That would would target 37.75 for this bounce.

Alternate view
2014 retraced 78% of the down move
That would target 43.72 this year.

Alternate would fit nicely with possible target of 2116 for the large degree wave....and would fit nicely with UVXY falling 68% from previous spike high.

Inquiring minds want to know! (...and me too.)

[michael03332002]

me too

dang I always get to antsy

and leave big money on the table

crap o la

[TeaCake]

Wish I had your UWTI today.

Not outpacing XIV in % in wiggles...but a second position in something would be nice.

Too comfy with the XIV/UVXY pair.

You dance with who brung ya!

Looks like medium wave slowing down...maybe it will make that 1994 (did I say 1997???). 3 of larger wave 2007...or not!<g> But if it does, it should pull back to previous 4 of lesser degree...aka 1960-1970.

Screw the count! Ride the RRC...<g>

Edit - climbed out of larger degree RRC (drawn from 2103)...good place to pause/flat???

Re-edit - did not break larger RRC - that line will meet R2 30 minutes before close. Likely spot???

[TeaCake]

Break of down RRC if it holds.
View of medium count RRC. Hope we get 5 waves out of it...

[michael03332002]

she doesnt like to work with CoCobola much

her partner is allergic to it and doesnt want it in his shop

lol

pain in the buttosky

[michael03332002]

she does sanding and staining and light hand checkering

nothing fancy there, she will also do a cold bluing on barrels

just basics

[TeaCake]

Interesting! Looked @ Facebook and the webpage.

I thought I was wanting Bubinga or Cocobola or Bloodwood grips but her basket weave Mesquite is a nice looking grip...and should give a good grip. The spalted grips are pretty...but not sure I would want a pair...<g> too much a traditionalists most likely. Will dig a couple out tonight and think on it...

Do any custom work on rifles stocks?

[michael03332002]

know LOTS of people from llano

when dad was alive, he did some real estate development and condo

building around lake LBJ, mostly at THE POINT

played lots of rounds of golf at horseshoe bay

look up her facebook page or website here

https://www.facebook.com/awomanstouchguns

thats her doing the drawing

let me know and will get her in touch

we have already done a few pair for people on here so

if you want some feedback let me know and will put you in touch

with them

later

[TeaCake]

You got it!

Primary would be we are starting 5 up. Alternate is ABC down 1820 (or the 1730 on that longterm chart).

It looks 50/50 to me but have to give weight to up since that was a 3waver down...so far...but that could change. But a 5waver up would be a lock (almost so the usual - or not!)

Really interesting area - and I was it would move out of it before I get into fall fun!

[TeaCake]

Ooooo...a pistol-packing mama. I like it. (I am a Texan, too. Started college in Denton - finished elsewhere. Most of family in Llano/San Saba/Cherokee area.)

I have a 1911 Kimber that I would like to have new grips for...hmmm

[michael03332002]

I am counting on it

looking for a 2000 area resistance and then another shot

at the 1820 OR BELOW low and then turn up into the EOY

These bounces are wayyyyyy to wild and swing to far for this to

be the bottom

typically (hate that word), we see a long tail candle signalling

a low, but a graduated climb, not these 50+ point candles in the

SPX

nope, gonna see another slam and it will be another doozy

IMHO

[TeaCake]

As a counter to the XIV roadmap, UVXY always dies like a wingshot dove after one of these spikes...but could it put another one together in the near term?

Only the shadow knows...

[michael03332002]

well I will be leaving early friday heading to Ft Worth

g/f has a booth at the gun show this weekend

she sells custom grips for 1911's

next friday we will board a plan to LV and leave to come

back on Monday

going to take the tablet with me, but doubt I have the time

OR THE ENERGY, ( wink wink )

to get on much

lol

[michael03332002]

watching SVXY on a pullback for a quick hitter

thinking that the 15 or 30 min chart will show a decent area

to buy when it hits the lower BB, somehwere between 50-51


I think we see a surge in the afternoon into the close and UP

day tomm to about 1990-2000 area

but going into the weekend, I am going to be OUT of that trade

and/or pick up some TVIX for a weekend smash of the FUTS

[TeaCake]

If it had not meant being a 5 waver down, I would have really liked to have seen 1820 - that would have been 'pretty' - not to mention really lowered the odds that we have to visit it later.

SPX are signposts -SPX means nothing to me other than that...

I have my XIV roadmap that has that second tag of the low. I ain't married to that idea...but we are sleeping together. <g>

Any waver worth their salt can see 6-8 counts around here. Not saying I am worth my salt but even a hack like me can see that many - and too many of them (up and down) have 2000 as an 'interesting' area.

At some point, we are going to be looking at SPX and wondering if we are looking at a the right shoulder of a year wide HnS (for the traditional TA people) and or wondering if 1867 was/is an abc(A) of an even larger ABC...

Plus I am a short-timer so to speak. Out of here 9/9 and won't be doing much more than passing through to change gear til into January.
Tis the season - bowhunting season, redfish/jack season...and their are poor starving guides in several states that are depending on me. <g> It's a dirty job...but someones gotta do it.

[442 oldsman]

Thanks I wasn't sure.
I'm flat and sitting on my hands waiting to see how RUT handles this trend line.
weekly
http://prntscr.com/89hy80

15 min
http://prntscr.com/89i0ov

[michael03332002]

Oh Yea

sorry

thought I had informed you

it was great


have it saved and ready to go


Thanks again

[442 oldsman]

Did my print screen link work the other day? I'm trying to remember how to post chart from think or swim.

[michael03332002]

Barbara Streisand secretly eats popcorn


Who knew


Lol

[TeaCake]

"You got this" - in a game with Da Boys?

They surprised me (big!) once this week with that (presumed) delta hedge on OPEX. I am hopeful the pimps were just having a little tizzy to get the Fed to keep the free money rolling...but I am a 'show me' person.

I 'got this' when I can see the 5 larger degree waves on the 60min that could be the '1' of a 5 up. Til then, that 1820 is awful pretty...and I ride the RRCs on 5/15min charts

Sell Yom Kippor - buy Rosh Hashanah <g>

Mazel Tov!

[michael03332002]

Oh man. You got this. Just KISS

Forget wiggles just go with flow

[TeaCake]

Big assumption that 5wave projections don't fail and have turn into ABC.

But if the don't, best chance is at finish of small degree at 1950ish...but I think the 4s will be flats or pauses.

Break 1914 kills whole thing. 5minute counting is pretty shaken at best...(aka I suck at wiggles).

Looking good ES so fingers crossed on SPX doing same...

[michael03332002]

Any pullback in there?

[TeaCake]

I have 3 degrees of waves on 5min charts (or I think I see 3degrees) that support each other.
Smallest degree targets 1953
Mid degree targets 1997
3 of largest degree would target 2007 (5th wave would be 2117...but 'show me' 2000 first.

I like having signposts...ahead of time...

And time will tell...

[TeaCake]

....and the crowd goes wild!!!
5min RSI(14) trying to get above 70 fir the first time in days!!!
Will it make it??!?!?!?!?
Can the 5min make it over the 200EMA?!?!?!?

I am hyperventilating here!!!

It made it over 1914.56!!!

Other than that...I think the grass has grown .01" today...couldn't find any wet paint to watch....


"In the clearest indication yet that fears of a Chinese economic slowdown could influence U.S. monetary policy, New York Fed President William Dudley said the prospect of a September rate hike "seems less compelling" than it was only weeks ago." (per Yahoo news)

<gasp>

Who would have ever thought such a thing???

[TeaCake]

Gurus screaming up! Gurus screaming down! (Me, too! One or the other with 5-1 odds on bounce!<g>)
But 'what if'....I definitely love a good flat - as long as I know what it is...
Edit - just to be clear - just having fun. I STILL think I have a XIV roadmap.



Not sure...but this could be done...or not<g> (from 5min chart)

Looked closer...from 1948...
i=1948 1914 - 34
ii=1914 1929 - 15
iii=1929 1873 - 56 (1.618 x 34 = 55)
iv=1873 1890 - 13
v=1890 1867 - 23

Would be iv and v each in 1 5min bar which I do not care for at all...
See if it can clear 1914.60...

Pennant has to break sometime...but which way? <g>

Look at the odds and place your bet...or be like TREND1 and wait on the trend change and follow it...

[TeaCake]

I am assuming the action yesterday afternoon was the last of the margin monkeys being abused by Da Boyz since it was right on queue?

Anybody have a better theory?

Edit - On 5min - I see (or think I see) i,ii,iii and in iv with the v to go (of the C). That should finish this puppy up???

[TeaCake]

This time could be different...but I am an odds player...

As I see UVYX, it is a 6 day play (not universally true or every time) most of the time.

It has done it's double dip and I have not seen a triple dip in the time I have played it...or maybe I was just already gone.

It might and possibly will finish the second spike to the local high or a bit higher...but I would have a trailing stop under it already or most probably already out. Greed kills with evil ETFs...

When (not if) the stop is taken out, my pattern would be to walk away and let the gamblers take the chances. Odds are the fast easy money is done for this roundup. The plan to flip should already be in ready...and a rough idea at what level to be looking for the next time. Always another one. Last one 153%, this one 195%(?)(on the first dip!)..a lot of people would consider that good returns for an entire year...let alone 6 days. Like I said - the RIGHT 6 days 2-3 times a year ain't bad.

But that is just me...and not advice in any shape, form or fashion.

[442 oldsman]

Sorry this screen save does not show all I'd hope. I am picking my spot from multiple time frames (credit to LG)

[442 oldsman]

http://prntscr.com/88y0iu
Throwin this out here, prolly should have kept quiet. We might get the SPX 1820, but after looking at RUT chart I'm not willing to hold, maybe cause I been swillin the Lunazul again.