IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)

[qbeagles02]

From Harbinger Research (no idea who they are):


"We believe industry factors will remain strong, and thus ONP
deserves at least a multiple of 10x our 2011 EPS estimate of $1.66. Therefore we rate the shares of ONP a Strong Buy, and set our 12-month price target to $16.60 per share.

...We have derived our 12-month price target of $16.60/share based on a 2011 forward P/E multiple of 10 times estimated earnings. Given that our 2011 earnings estimate of $1.66 per share represents a compound annual growth rate in EPS of approximately 26% (from year-end 2009 through year-end 2011), and given the strong long-term prospects of the Company, we believe a market multiple of 10x estimated 2011 EPS is actually fairly conservative, and believe significant upside to our price target exists. We therefore rate the shares of ONP a Strong Buy."

http://www.harbingerresearch.com/data/ONP%20Harbinger%20Research%20Report%204-22-10_258.pdf

[qbeagles02]

Article in seeking alpha interviewing Eric Jackson of Ironfire Capital what his highest conviction stock postion is: ONP


http://seekingalpha.com/article/198396-high-conviction-a-well-managed-chinese-small-cap-in-high-growth-mode?source=hp_wc

[manatee]

Yeah, I dont like the dilution either, however the pricing and terms of the financing should give a buffer from seeing the low pps range you suggest, however if those levels are reached and the fundamentals are similar, Ill be adding.

[risi]

It's from the Street.com. I've seen a few articles from this guy traveling through China reporting. I agree upside potential is great here but in the intermediate, I believe better prices will be had in the next few months. Entry at present levels is a good bet for a year or longer hold but any kink in their plans will send this to the $6 and maybe even the $5 range pretty quick. The dilution is what scares folks although I feel long term it will prove to be a good move by ONP.

[manatee]

Interesting... posted from another board and its current although I cant validate its source:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Top-Pick-From-Our-China-tsmp-757056843.html?x=0&.v=1

[manatee]

Just FYI. Just noticed ONP now has options.

[risi]

I hope so but I have decided I will sit it out for a better price. Like I mentioned post just before this, check out the history on AOB and FEED. Same pattern with those as is emerging with ONG. I made money on both but then they started getting hammered as they diluted to grow to big boy status. It's a necessary step if they are going to grow but, I think I'll wait until they work the kinks out first.

Best wishes.

[risi]

Yes, I just checked my computer and now it all makes sense. I sold all my shares as this does not bode well for the intermediate. Look at the history of AOB and of FEED and you'll see the same pattern with dilution. Those two companies, I think, are good bets for the long term just like ONP for the hold a few shares long term investor but in the intermediate I think ONP is going to get hammered just like AOB and FEED. I very well could be wrong but dilution rarely helps in the short term when you're a micro-cap.

It's been a good run and I've made lots of money here but I will now take some time to re-evaluate and wait for a better price with the dilution. We will see lower prices IMO, maybe even the $5 range. That's when I will start thinking about jumping back in here.

Best wishes to you all.

[RLTW]

typical BS. Next quarter report should show us a good spike. This company is gonna continue to make money

[Traderfan]

Risi, now we know why the stock was weak lately. They filed for another 3 million shares offering at 8.25 and also 450k possible allotment. Somebody obviously knew about it. So we are talking about another 3.5 million shares here and if they do the make goods in 2010 (18 million) we are talking about a buck in EPS for 2010.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Orient-Paper-Announces-prnews-4018257446.html?x=0&.v=21

[risi]

OK, shall I say it. I am baffled by the trading after record numbers release today.

[risi]

Up 7.35% to $9.50 and it is still at a stupid low price. Once I get the revalue with year end numbers I will post and you will be kicking yourself for not buying here.

[risi]

I'm living on beans and rice this month as I added more at $8.79

[risi]

As usual with the insanity of the market, I added more too early at around $9.30. Then the next day it tanks. I didn't think we would see those prices again but there are a lot of people that have gotten some shares at a serious serious discount. Even at the present $8.95 for longs this is a serious discount.

[RLTW]

I have no idea what the hell is going on with this thing. We just showed strong growth at 57% last quarter. you got me

[Traderfan]

Yeah seems like some serious sellers are underway. I haven't heard an update lately but they told us that they just started the digital photo business so maybe people are disappointed that they didn't start it in the beginning of the year. Who knows.

[risi]

Nothing fundamentally has changed. Profits are looking brighter than ever and we are tanking.

[Traderfan]

Why?

[risi]

Do you think someone is shorting this thing today?

[RLTW]

very nice movement today. I'm surprised we're still in the $10 territory to be honest. They still posted 57% growth last quarter

[Traderfan]

Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement


Due to foreign exchange restrictions under the current foreign exchange laws in China, Baoding Shengde was not able to convert foreign currency to Renminbi to fulfill its obligations under the aforementioned loan agreement. Therefore, on February 10, 2010, Baoding Shengde and each of Shareholders entered into a Termination of Loan Agreement to terminate the aforementioned loan agreement without any liability to any of the parties.



http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100211/onp8-k.html

[Traderfan]

Well hopefully they make more otherwise they are not cheap at these price if you compare them with almost all the other china small cap stocks out there right now.

Some people hope for 25 million but I don't think that's doable, if they can do 22 million it's a beginning....

[Quik18holes]

ONP - "We are delighted that Mr. Zhang will lead our digital photo paper segment," said Mr. Zhenyong Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Mr. Zhang has over 20 years of experience in the digital photo paper segment and will add significant value to this new business. We are confident that the revenue and profits of the digital photo paper business segment will help the Company to achieve its make-good financial performance threshold of $18 million adjusted net income (or $1.21 fully diluted EPS) for year 2010."

Click here for PR:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=41474828&symbol=ONP

[Traderfan]

Given the fact that they Q4 is a lot weaker than the Q3 (as I was saying weeks ago already due to the fact they had a one time effect on low raw material prices in Q3) I don't think the stock will rally anytime soon.

But hey I could be wrong about it. Good luck.

[risi]

and still we sit at dirt cheep, $10.50. Still in the stupid low price range. Any decent news out of China and this one will be one of the first to rocket out of this ridiculously low price range.

[manatee]

Just released.

For the year ended December 31, 2009, total unaudited revenue increased 57%, to approximately $102.1 million from $65.2 million in the year ended December 31, 2008. Full year 2009 unaudited net income was approximately $12.5 million, or unaudited $1.03 per diluted share, up 43% from $8.8 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, for the year ended December 31, 2008.

"In fiscal 2009, demand outpaced our production capacity, which resulted in a 57% increase in revenue," said Mr. Zhenyong Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Our profitability significantly increased in the full year of 2009, attributable to growth in repeat orders from our current customer base, as well as the addition of new clients. We remain confident that we will continue to achieve strong business growth in 2010, and are confident we will achieve our make good guidance of $18.0 million in net income in fiscal 2010."

About Orient Paper, Inc.

Orient Paper, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Shengde Holdings, Inc. and Baoding Shengde Paper Co., Ltd., controls and operates Hebei Baoding Orient Paper Milling Co., Ltd ("HBOP"). Founded in 1996, HBOP is engaged in the production and distribution of products such as corrugating medium paper, offset printing paper, writing paper, and other paper and packaging-related products in China. The Company uses recycled paper as its primary raw material. As one of the largest paper producers in Hebei Province, China, the Company is strategically located in Baoding, a city in close proximity to Beijing where the majority of publishing houses are based. Orient Paper is led by an experienced management team committed to diversifying the Company's product offering and delivering tailored services to its customers. For more information, please visit http://www.orientalpapercorporation.com .

[risi]

I was just the opposite in opinion because at $9 this one was seriously spring loaded. I was suprised it dropped to $9. That is a STUPID LOW PRICE. I figured it would stay around $11 and misjudged a little getting back in with the bulk of my reserve cash. I think by next month this one will be setting new highs and we may well see $13 & $14 in the next few days which will be well above my re-entry point average. When we hit $15, I will have added a boat load more of free shares. Then I'll wait again for stupid Mr Market to get finicky again and add some more free shares. I expect this one will be trading above $20 by year end and possibly higher if the numbers keep growing like they are.

[Traderfan]

Yes, very strong the stock lately. I didn't think that it goes that fast back up to 11. Very nice.

[syracuseo]

Another nice day, charts turning bullish, IMO.....

Annual report March.....should be very positive......

[risi]

We're up 10% on the day to $10.20 and we're still at a stupid low price.

[risi]

OK agreed, STUPID CHEEP.

[syracuseo]

Agree, IMO, $20 by annual report ( March ).....growth is spectacular......and continuing.....

i.e. Stupid Cheap sp.

[risi]

get um while you can boys cause I have a feeling we'll be trading at a 30%-50% higher range by next week. Sticking my neck out on predictions but shall I say it, the market can be stupid sometimes.

[risi]

These are old numbers now. No doubt these new year end numbers will send ONP value higher. Even based on the old numbers, we now sit at nearly 30% below a 50% discount. Whether this finicky market recognizes it or not is anyone's guess. But I'm relatively certain recognition will come soon and we will be soaring again. When I get the new numbers figured I will post them.

FIGURING FAIR VALUE at 18% Annual Growth Rate
CURRENT EPS 1.07
Earnings Estimate next 5 Yrs 18
Number of Years takes to Double 4
Number of Doubles in 10 years 2.50
ESTIMATED EPS GROWTH RATE 2.68
ESTIMATD FUTURE P/E 36
Estimated PPS in 10 years $96.30
TODAY'S FAIR VALUE PRICE $24.08
MOS PRICE (50% of Fair Value) $12.04

[Traderfan]

Sooner or later probably yes. But not in the near term in my view. I'm buying at 8 or as soon as I see the overall sentiment towards China improving again....

[risi]

May I express an opinion? This is a stupidly low price. I've already taken a bunch of my paycheck and dumped it in here. We'll see how stupid a move that is in the next few weeks or maybe even the next few days when the crowd comes back here realizing how oversold this one is.

[risi]

Might be better to wade in rather than nibble. They are still on course for bigger future numbers. I wonder what affect this will have on the next two weeks trading. Will we see $15+ again sooner than later? Hhmm. Thes numbers make me wonder.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100201/onp10-k_a.html

[Traderfan]

Actually I'm starting to nibble here as these are attractive prices but my main buy order is close to 8 as I think we will get there probably even in the first 2 days of next week. 8 seems like a good deal for the mid term.

[manatee]

Traderfan, Im sure you are aware of negative price movements in China stocks recently. Its not specific to ONP, nor should it be used reflect the business quality when its a general market correction.
I know it sucks and yes they could move even lower. So my plan, as usual is to wait for confirmed bottoms and add to the best values I can find.
Also if you look at a daily chart, $9 (its current close) is pretty strong support from mid NOV up until it broke out to the upside.
For now its time to just wait and see what develops next week with the markets, any strength and Ill probably be adding some here. GL

[Traderfan]

Today we were below 9.....looking weak. From 15 to 9 is quite a lot.

[risi]

Thanks Manatee, I'm thinking we're spring loaded now but this market is very finicky. At the drop of a bucket everyone runs for the door. But I guess volatility will play well for those with patience who want to add free shares. Mood swings will pay off for the patient here I believe.

[manatee]

Congrats. Nice place to grab some, looks like a alot of support in this range looking at the chart just prior to the run to 15.

[risi]

The idiots gave it to me. OK we can go back up now, LOL!!

[risi]

http://en.ce.cn/subject/chinamarkets/mktstock/201001/26/t20100126_20868752.shtml

Come on $9.50!

[risi]

Obviously for the past few days, sentiment is against Chinese stocks as the credit is tightening there ( http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKBJD00344720100126 )but IMO ONP is way oversold now. The slightest bit of good news will send ONP right back to the $12+ mark which is still at a 50% discount. There are several good China plays on serious sale right now and my focus is on ONP because out of all of them I believe it to be the most consistent and boring products with a seriously bright future.

I will add more at $9.50 if we get that low and sell that position at $12 to add more free shares if the idiots selling give them to me.

[risi]

Did anyone see this shameless pump of ONP listed in the press release in YahooFinance? They quoted me in the article. Can you believe a rookie invester, me, they quote. Watch us go through the roof today and I will be laughing. I do have to say, we are at spring loaded level now. Like I said, if this goes below $10 very far, I will be putting even more paycheck in here. I already put $500 of this months paycheck at slightly above $10.

http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2010/01/25/5-star-stocks-poised-to-pop-orient-paper.aspx

[Traderfan]

Most of the companies report at the end of march! Some exceptions maybe a bit higher but most of the OTCBB companies will be coming out at the very end of the month. The Nasdaq companies a bit earlier I guess.

[RLTW]

Anyone know when 4th qtr results are gonna be published?

[Traderfan]

I do agree with you Risi, I'm seeing 20 as well in due time. Never disagreed with you on this of course. I'm a big fan of the company and have always been.

[risi]

Having restated your point, I now understand and from a short term trade perspective, I think I catch your point.

Here's how I am holding my ONP position based on my research and valuation of the company. I am very Bullish on ONP up to about 3 years out as a value investment. From what I learned so far, they don't seem to have much of a plan for continued growth beyond 3-5 years. I think they are smart enough to figure what to do beyond that as we go along. Time will tell. At present, I believe we are just beginning to see the rise of this one considering we continue to see the expected numbers they say will be forthcoming over the next year or two. With the last quarter's set of numbers, they under estimated. I like that cause the market reacted very positive to that and all of us made lots of money as a result. Remember also, their plan is to move to NYSE. Before, during and after AOB's move from AMEX to NYSE a year or so ago, we saw it move within a few months from about $5 to over $13 although AOB even at the time at $13 was way overpriced. With this in the back of my mind, I have a pool of ONP shares I never sell unless something fundamentally changes to catch the ride up. Then, my reserves I trade in and out with the volatility of the market to add free shares on the move up. Because I am relatively confident this one will be trading above $20 by end of year (and a $20 price tag being justified because of ONP's increased value), if I trade back in at $13, I will not sell that short position until I'm in positive territory even if it drops to under $10 or even under $9. If it drops to under $9, I'll be eating beans for the month and dumping some paycheck in here probably.