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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 19, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 19165 and is trading up about 4.94% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Nevertheless, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19275.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 26th at 19006, which was down 8 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 1st. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 19427. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733.
Critical support still underlies this market at 18708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold Gold Miners’ Q2’23 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | August 18, 2023
The gold miners’ stocks have had a tough month, disproportionally pummeled lower on a relatively-minor gold pullback. So naturally bearishness spiked, leaving this small sector really out of favor again. Smart contrarians are still paying attention, as major gold stocks just reported their latest quarterly results. They always offer great insights into how gold miners are faring fundamentally, whether higher stock prices are likely.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $11.2b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by over 30x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, those thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. These two largest categories account for nearly 4/7ths of GDX.
GDX sure isn’t winning any belle-of-the-ball contests lately, dropping 14.7% over this past month. That included breakdowns below both uptrend support and GDX’s 200-day moving average, leaving a wake of considerable technical and sentimental damage. The major gold stocks have been amplifying gold’s own parallel 4.3% retreat since mid-July. That was fueled by gold-futures selling on a 3.5% US Dollar Index rally.
The gold-futures guys watch the US dollar’s fortunes for their primary trading cues. The currency guys in turn have driven a strong USDX bounce on Fed-hawkish economic data arguing for keeping rates higher for longer. The resulting gold-stock selling has been overdone though, as GDX leveraged gold’s pullback by 3.4x as of mid-week. Typically this leading major-gold-stock ETF amplifies material gold moves by 2x to 3x.
So excitable gold-stock traders have been overreacting, as they are wont to do. Their sentiment has probably been tainted by the recent general-stock selloff. Over that past-month span, the flagship S&P 500 fell 3.3% breeding universal bearishness. Gold stocks tend to get sucked into material stock-market selloffs, especially if gold isn’t rallying. Their latest fundamentals reveal whether low gold-stock prices are righteous.
For 29 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDX’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly super-majors, majors, and larger mid-tiers, they dominate this ETF at 88.1% of its total weighting! While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding the gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector.
This table summarizes the operational and financial highlights from the GDX top 25 during Q2’23. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDX over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q2’22. Those symbols are followed by their current GDX weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q2’23 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q2’22. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
The major gold miners’ Q2’23 performances proved disappointing overall. Generally their production fell which forced costs higher, eroding earnings. The super-majors and larger majors have always struggled to grow their outputs at their vast operational scales, so I’ve long favored smaller mid-tiers and juniors. But since the big gold stocks of GDX dominate sector price action and sentiment, we have to follow their results.
Production growth trumps everything else as the primary mission for gold miners. Higher outputs boost operating cash flows which help fund mine expansions, builds, and purchases, fueling virtuous circles of growth. Mining more gold also boosts profitability, lowering unit costs by spreading big fixed operational expenses across more ounces. But most of GDX’s biggest gold miners continued suffering shrinking output.
That includes mighty Newmont, Barrick Gold, Newcrest Mining, Gold Fields, Anglogold Ashanti, Kinross Gold, and Endeavour Mining. Together commanding almost 3/8ths of GDX’s total weighting, these seven huge gold miners produced 4,866k ounces last quarter. Ominously that plunged 8.9% year-over-year, a serious drop for most of the world’s biggest gold miners! That forced overall GDX-top-25 output down 4.7% YoY.
While bad performance absolutely, it looks even worse in broader context. Every quarter the World Gold Council publishes the best-available global gold supply-and-demand data in its outstanding Gold Demand Trends reports. As August dawned, the latest Q2’23 GDT revealed that worldwide gold-mining output last quarter actually surged 3.8% YoY to 923.4 metric tons! So the biggest gold stocks are seriously lagging...
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GDX #Miners - After slippin the Daily/Purple it failed to put in a swift recovery
By: Sahara | August 17, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - After slippin the Daily/Purple it failed to put in a swift recovery.
So that Red-Box and 2nd Target from the 'Broadening' Plot & 62/Fib acted as the Magnet...
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$GDX Opening weekly sweeper into 8/18 $29 CALLS $NEM top holding at 9.95%
By: FLOWrensics | August 15, 2023
• $GDX Opening weekly sweeper into 8/18 $29 CALLS
$NEM top holding at 9.95%
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GDX - Unless a swift recovery that 2nd Target from the 'Broadening' Plot & 62/Fib is in view...
By: Sahara | August 15, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - Unless a swift recovery that 2nd Target from the 'Broadening' Plot & 62/Fib is in view...
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GDX #Miners - It was a B/test of the 'Diamond'...
By: Sahara | August 15, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - It was a B/test of the 'Diamond'...
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GDX #Miners - That 'Diamond Kicked in to the diwnside
By: Sahara | August 14, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - That 'Diamond Kicked in to the diwnside.
Now B/Testing. Yet watch for a recovery to put in a fake...
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Report
By: Software North | August 11, 2023
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 12, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 19466 and is trading up about 6.59% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. On the other hand, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. On the other hand, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19516 and support forming below at 19340. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 26th at 19006, which was down 8 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 1st. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 19545. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733.
Critical support still underlies this market at 18708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold Gold Stocks: It's Time To Nibble
By: Morris Hubbartt | August 11, 2023
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
SGS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
Super Force Signals (SFS) is being rebranded as Super Gold Signals (SGS at https://supergoldsignals.com), to reflect the growing global importance of gold.
SG60 Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
My SG60 service is ideal for investors who like a nice mix of stoploss trades and core positions for gold and silver stocks, and some special situation growth stocks too! The SG60 subscription is just $229 per year, and I have a special offer this week, of $199 for 14 months. If you want the offer, please click this link or send me an email. Thank-you!
SGT Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGJ Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
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GDX #Miners - For now finding Spprt off the Daily Purple/MA
By: Sahara | August 11, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - For now finding Spprt off the Daily Purple/MA.
Tho 2nd Target from 'Broadening & 62/Fib are still vacant...
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$GDX ~ 1.73 million shares at $174.06 #darkpool activity
By: FLOWrensics | August 10, 2023
• $GDX Suze #darkpool activity ~ 1.73 million shares at $174.06
$NEM Top holding 10%.
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GDX #Miners - Taking out the June low discredited the 'Leading Diagonal' prospect I had...
By: Sahara | August 9, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - Taking out the June low discredited the 'Leading Diagonal' prospect I had...
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Barrick beats quarterly profit estimates on higher gold prices
By: Investing.com | August 8, 2023
(Reuters) -Barrick Gold Corp beat analysts' expectations for second-quarter profit on Tuesday, as the Canadian gold miner benefited from higher prices of the precious metal.
The company also maintained its full-year production outlook for gold and copper, saying output in the second half of the year is expected to surpass the first - boosted by better performances from the Carlin complex in Nevada, the Kibali gold mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Lumwana copper mine in Zambia.
Average prices of gold during the reported quarter rose 4.3% compared to last year, nearly touching an all-time high in May as U.S. banking concerns accelerated a rush to the safe-haven asset.
Higher prices of the yellow metal helped raise Barrick's average realized gold prices by 6% to $1,972 per ounce from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for gold, a key industry metric that reflects total expenses associated with production, rose to $1,355 per ounce from $1,212 per ounce in the year-ago quarter.
Miners have been hurting from sticky inflation and high fuel prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, along with labor shortages in the United States.
Gold production for second quarter ended June 30 fell 3% to 1 million ounces from a year earlier, while copper production stood at 107 million pounds, also down 11% from a year earlier.
Analysts, on an average, were expecting gold production of 1.09 million ounces, according to Refinitiv IBES data.
The Toronto-based miner posted quarterly adjusted earnings of 19 cents per share, while analysts had expected 17 cents.
Late last month, rival Newmont Corp missed second-quarter profit estimates on lower production and higher costs.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 5, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 19761 and is trading up about 8.20% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Nonetheless, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19783 and support forming below at 19581. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 1st at 20854, which was up 26 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up for the past 5 weeks from the low of the week of June 26th, which has been a move of .0567%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733.
Critical support still underlies this market at 18708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold Gold Stocks: RSI Divergences In Play
By: Morris Hubbartt | August 4, 2023
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
SGS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
Super Force Signals (SFS) is being rebranded as Super Gold Signals (SGS at https://supergoldsignals.com), to reflect the growing global importance of gold.
The big news this week is the Fitch downgrade of US government debt! At my flagship SGS newsletter, we're moving quickly to make serious money on this monstrous event. We're buying GDX and XME with stoplosses and we’re loaded with cash in all three of our portfolios. We stay protected while buying the winning stocks. At $229 a year, the newsletter is solid value. I have a special offer this week of $229 for a full 14 months! Shoot me an email or click this link if you want the offer. Thanks!
SG60 Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGT Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGJ Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Metals Futures Market Reports
By: Software North | August 4, 2023
Gold
Silver
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Earnings Preview: Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD)
By: 24/7 Wall St. | August 4, 2023
• Here is a preview of what to expect from four companies scheduled to report earnings before U.S. markets open on Tuesday.
Barrick Gold
Over the past 12 months, the price of gold has risen by about 9.6%. Canada-based Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD) has seen its share price improve by around 8.7% over the same period. For the second quarter of the year, spot gold prices improved by about 4.5%. Year over year, demand from the spot market was up 44%, while demand from central banks fell by 35% and demand by the jewelry industry rose slightly. Jewelry accounts for just over half of global demand for the yellow metal.
Analysts’ enthusiasm rose slightly in the quarter, with 19 of 26 brokerages having a Buy or Strong Buy rating while the rest have Hold ratings. At a recent price of around $16.50 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of about $22.00 is 15.9%. At the high price target of around $25.50, the upside potential is 21.2%.
Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $2.93 billion, which would be up 11% sequentially and up 2.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.17, up 21.4% sequentially but down 29.1% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, estimates call for EPS of $0.88, up 17%, on sales of $12.09 billion, up 9.8%.
Barrick stock trades at 118.8 times expected 2023 earnings, 14.5 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.13 and 14.0 times estimated 2025 earnings of $1.17 per share. Its 52-week trading range is $13.01 to $20.75. Barrick pays an annual dividend of $0.40 (yield of 2.42%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 11.94%.
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$BPGDM $GDX #Miners - Hope is for 'Dbl Bottoms' at the Lwr-BB's (Tightening on the BP Chart)...
By: Sahara | August 3, 2023
• $BPGDM $GDX #Miners - Hope is for 'Dbl Bottoms' at the Lwr-BB's (Tightening on the BP Chart)...
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$GDX #Miners - Touchdown for the B/Test
By: Sahara | August 3, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - Touchdown for the B/Test.
I SPot a pot'l 'Diamond'/ Looking for the Ratio B/Test & Lwr-Lines to offer Spprt...
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