Go Ahead Call a TOP(g)

[bbgold]

"TOP!" :^)

[Softechie]

TTTIIIMMMMMBBBBBBEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

[Justa Werkenstiff]

I want to make a fool of myself <g>. I am calling a Nasdaq top within 1% from today's high to last for a month or more.

[valuepump]

You beat me by 4 days. I'm calling a top now.. last week's surge to 9500 was it. I'm also calling a bottom in the $vix, and think the upward move in volitility will now start, although it doesn't necessarily have to be quick.

[Joe Bob]

I call top today on: DJIA (9500), NDX (1342), COMP (1812), SOX (457) - at least local tops.

[valuepump]

well we didn't top yet so whoever said that was correct, but now the real question.. what kind of top will we have? A bowl shaped top, a blowoff top where we surge hundreds of points intraday then fall back to perhaps form a head shoulders formation in the coming months, or perhaps one more unexpected where we continue drifting along slowly upward as someone keeps buying stock futures on dips, then suddenly we start to crater... I guess time will tell.

[Myst]

Bullish Percent calling a top?

[augieboo]

PER-cisely! {g}

[mm699]

Which is just like being in the barber chair looking in the mirror which is looking in the mirror behind the barber chair which is looking at the mirror...

Watch those haircuts

[valuepump]

http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction

[TREND1]

Wilshire 5,000 and NYSE below 10 week MA
SELL

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID522044

[TREND1]

Well go copy it and place it here !

[Burk]

I called one yesterday on Zeev's board.

[TREND1]

WARMING! WARNING! WARNING!
$TMW (Wilshire 5,000 just went below it's 10 week moving average)

This is first time since Mar 2003

This will cause me to "Call a Top" if $TMW is this way at the close.

[Packstater]

A brilliant prediction

[augieboo]

Since I am a great admirer of labbies, I'll take that as a very nice compliment. (:

[TREND1]

You sound like my 17 year old Lab(g)

[augieboo]

The market will top at some point in the future, at a level higher than that of the last bottom. This top will last until the trend changes again, which will be sometime after it tops.

All of this is predicated on the assumption that the market has not already topped. If the market has already topped, then it will bottom at some point in the future, at a level lower than that at which it last topped.

This last, of course, is predicated on the assumption that the market has not yet already both topped and bottomed. If the market has topped and bottomed, then it should top again at some point in the future, at a higher level than that of the last bottom.

Etc.

[market_watcher]

I mean the mid-July 2003 top. I figured everyone was pretty short-term oriented on this thread and would know that. My bad.

[TREND1]

Posted by: sylvester80
In reply to: Larry Dudash who wrote msg# 5935 Date:8/1/2003 12:01:11 AM
Post #of 5940

...and we are still in it as posted by the chart below... when the channel breaks, you would be right... but not before it does... JMHO.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=14048&u=sylvester80&a=sylvester80%5C%27s%20cha....



"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." Theodore Roosevelt, May 7, 1918

[TREND1]

you wrote
will not exceed top already in for NDX.

Do you mean the Jan 200 top in NDX ?
That's not much of a call
We are not mind readers here(g)

Try in put some dates in for the NDX top(g)

[market_watcher]

Top between now and August expiration will not exceed top already in for NDX.

[TREND1]

Hey! Keep on calling those TOPS(g)
Some one will be the "great caller of the top"(g)

[TREND1]

And now we hear from Zeev himself(g)
...........................................
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Larry Dudash who wrote msg# 136347 Date:7/31/2003 10:16:12 PM
Post #of 136358

May 30th at 1595....search Kayaker's board for the specific one.


Zeev
....................................................

[Bullwinkle]

Top Call:

I do not see us going much higher than where we are right now, what catalyst will get us there other than a capture or killing of OBL or Saddam? Even then it would probably be short lived. Take today for instance, the Eco #'s today were as good as we could have hoped for and as good a catalyst as any to get us into a breakout, yet we sold off.

Do we crash? Do we grind and unwind? Will we be range bound? I have no answers, but with the summer dols seasonality kicking in and the fact that I cannot see any real catalysts to take us much higher I would have to say that we will see our top within the next couple of weeks if we have not already...

DJIA- 9450
COMP- 1790
S&P- 1020

[Myself °¿°]

Cool Larry...Here's Johnny "my top":)...

Pure QQQ P/C Ratio Open Int
...Date.....PP/C
7-30-03 .7515
7-31-03 .7605

Trading the Pure QQQ PCR
http://www.zealllc.com/2003/qqqpcrpf.htm


Posted by: BULLarkey
In reply to: None Date:7/31/2003 5:09:24 PM
Post #of 45

If the markets will roll over soon, then why…tell me why, not 5 ½ weeks ago the 10 yr was going for 100/101 bucks…the spin then was, “Oh everyone is afraid the markets gonna roll over…ooOOOOooooo…we see buying of the 10yr as the yields are falling”…ooOOOooooo! Meanwhile the Nasd is still in that Daily chart, up channel. Ok?

Ok! Looking at the QQQ 4 ½ weeks ago, even if you’re sloppy, plus or minus a buck, the QQQ is relatively in the same place. It’s not 40% different like the yield of the 10 yr…The 10 yr is now $93.21 that’s $7.00 cheaper…you can argue the fact “supply and demand”

BS…It seams to me the elite 2% have created a draw play with perfect timing, enticing the many with gains they wish they had bought months ago before the market started going parabolic. Now that they have somewhat recovered a miniscule amount of their equity loss will they go for the 4.40% - 4 ½ % yield when another 10% is coming in the NASD before the year-end?

Now the spin is the VIX is low and that means….ooOOOooooo We are topping…

There is no deflation… So 2 month or more ago, while the listening followers were busily impaling themselves on the bond market, the Nasd chopped up^ …I bet they are just disgusted now. 10yr much cheaper and so much more yield

God! I hate the media

If the equity markets are rolling over, then why aren’t the bond market makers charging up the wazu for protection? It should be $99.00 min./10 yr note…that is unless there’s an equity seller’s strike:)

QQQ closed at 31.80 add 10% year end...wag
BULLarkey

My trades
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1744

[TREND1]

They call tops on SI too
Here is a system called "Keep it Simple Trading"
that went short on 7/21/03

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/sub_history.gsp?subjectid=54143

[TREND1]

Did Bob Brinker call a top yet?
This is the place to bookmark to find out

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1832

[TREND1]

Hey! Here is my try at calling a top(g)
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Posted by: Larry Dudash
In reply to: None Date:6/22/2003 11:54:02 PM
Post #of 1818

Calling a TOP here
6/20/2003

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID522044
...........................................................

[TREND1]

aj99
Don forget to post your topper here(g)

[TREND1]

Posted by: mlsoft
In reply to: TJ Parker who wrote msg# 136325 Date:7/31/2003 9:16:03 PM
Post #of 136345

TJ...

"ah, here i think we disagree. the consumption frenzy we've been seeing hasn't been concentrated in coach stores and nieman marcus; its been at walmart and has boosted chinese exports by 33%."

Hmmm -- I haven't seen any consumption "frenzy" at all recently. Consumer spending has held up but that was because re-fi's and debt replaced the equities bubble as a source of funds for the consumer after the bubble burst. Now that the re-fi mania is over and the consumer is maxed out in debt, what is going to be the source of extra funds to keep consumer spending from going down?? Employment is way down and the economy is very sluggish, so that won't work. The answer is that the only source that Greenspan has any control over is to reflate the equities bubble once again as the "new" source of funds until the economy strengthens. To date, I doubt that the markets have done much more than ease the stupor and shock that wealthier individuals have been in, and AG will have to continue to drive the markets significantly higher for the Gambit to work. Remember, we are far, far below the top in the NAZ, where most folks got killed.

"tsk tsk. its not similar. above we're talking about absolutes and here you're talking proportions. its not gonna help the italian economy much of lamborghini quadruples its yearly sales, but if fiat increased theirs by 25% ..."

I think you missed the point - a relatively small group of "well to do" individuals and business owners will outspend a very large group of poor folks. It is true that if you increased the assets of both groups by $50,000 per person the poor folks would probably outspend the rich folks, but how are you going to do that?? Greenspan has to work with what can be done, and he can raise the assets of the rich folks.

As for your last two points, the Gambit is not done by a long shot and although it is hard to deny that sentiment has improved somewhat, the poor economic data and earnings reports/guidance has certainly hurt. To the extent that he can continue to drive stocks ever higher, sentiment could continue to improve, although it would defy the reality of the economy.

I do not think it will work nor do I think he can pull it off. I have said that all along but he has already taken it far higher than I thought possible, so I am cautious about saying what he can or cannot do. The other point I have made all along is that it is the only choice he had to keep us from entering global recession and possible/probably deflation. Realistically, he has to play the hand and see what happens.

My guess is that the Gambit runs out of gas, either now or in the near future, and both the markets and the economy come down.

mlsoft

[TREND1]

Post any kind of top you want!
No bottoms ...please(g)

[ajtj99]

Another server farm just went into operation, Larry. LOL!

[porter]

Are you asking for THE top or a top for this move? For this move on a CLOSING basis it's DOW 9380 +/- 3%.

Contrary to popular opinion the market will not fall below DOW 7200 this Fall.

We are in a MULTI-YEAR rising ascending triangle.
<For the NAZ the trading band is going to drive investors crazy.>

What are your plans for the next ten years? <GG>

[TREND1]

Posted by: federal reserves
In reply to: Bullwinkle who wrote msg# 136323 Date:7/31/2003 7:06:45 PM
Post #of 136340

Bull> I agree. SnP ready to slip big time.

Could be quick, or we could waterfall again. I favor the get it over quick method as it would promote necessary reforms we need. Panic always leads to resolution. I quick drop wouldn't result in massive layoffs like this slow dribble is.

The 30Day EMA is now 987. 1000 is approximately the current neckline in the long term H&S (1000 1998 Asian Panic left) (1500 2000 y2k boom top) (1000 2001/2 Terrorist Recession).

Its ready to tumble to fair value around 500, although realistically, given the bullish basis, 600 will probably be closer to the bottom.

Once the market gets to fair value with a reasonable PE, fair dividend, once we get the forex rates under control to promote a correction in the trade balances, and once we have control of the debt bombs via writeoffs and consolidations, we can talk about a true long term recovery.

[valuepump]

You have to factor in the greenspan equation. I'll go out on a limb here and be the first to say we have not topped, although it's just a guess.. I don't know what greenie will do. I do think we'll drift around this area for another month or two, and then we go down, and down hard, to new lows by next year, lower lows then the October of last year lows. If we haven't topped, my guess is it will happen fast, not be too much higher then the current tops, and we'll come down just as fast.

Keep in mind I'm very pessimistic on the future of this nation.. I believe the debt bubble will be held up until the very end, and nobody will know what is going on until it's too late... the collapse will be hard, and leave anybody with debt that loses their job, anyone without significant hard assets to get by (precious metals), in ruins. It could very well leave the government in ruins and lead to government taking actions against us that we never thought they would. It will be the end of the corrupt 2 party zionist pyramid scheme. What will happen from there is anybody's guess.

I believe that the market and the economy are in an extreme bubble, and that the collapse will have an effect similar to 1929.. one bankrupcy will lead to another, the dollar sharply depreciating along the way, causing the whole economy to just stop.. leaving trillions of absolutely worthless dollars floating around. It will be the largest margin call in the history of the world, 31 trillion dollars of public, private, corporate, and government debt, happening on a nationwide scale and effecting the entire planet. In my opinion, of course.

It really is the perfect storm. Ignorance is NOT bliss, in this occasion. A little gold or even better, silver, will go a long long way. Don't forget your guns and ammo and food, either... in case you need to shoot government agents. ;)

[TREND1]

Posted by: Bearmove
In reply to: None Date:7/22/2003 8:02:37 AM
Post #of 136312

Investors' Intelligence reported on Monday that there were 531 buying climaxes in the US stock market last week (a buying climax occurs when a stock makes a new 52-week high and then reverses to close down on the week). This is the highest number of buying climaxes ever recorded by Investors' Intelligence. In fact, since the early 1990s there have only been 5 weeks with more than 200 buying climaxes. Take this any way you want, but don't take it bullishly.

[TREND1]

Posted by: federal reserves
In reply to: None Date:7/30/2003 3:07:21 PM
Post #of 136312

Ideal conditions for shorting

Since the spike high price & volume on June 6th, down days have
higher volume than up days, and last week Investor Intelligence reported a record number of climax buys, wherein a stock makes a new 52 week high only to close LOWER on the week. SOmething like 500 stocks did that last week!

Most folks are hanging around for the SADDAMMIE rally, which may not appear. Longs are getting to greedy.

The ideal big bear rollovers start with a big rounded top, then a drip, a drop, a little creek, a river, then a huge waterfall at the end.

[TREND1]

Here is another topper?
...............................
Posted by: andy20020
In reply to: None Date:7/31/2003 4:18:34 PM
Post #of 7830

Market TOP TODAY ??? Be warned ... todays US market actions may convince many its the top ... they didn't believe the Economic Data of Mass Destruction, the S&P spiked touched 1000 and retraced on volume ... be ready in case ... Regards

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[TREND1]

Sure could use some help in what search words to use to find toppers.

(1)Top
(2)market
(3)....

[TREND1]

Allow me to post the first topper I've found(g).
I do the underling.
..................................................
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 3919 Date:7/31/2003 5:10:49 PM
Post #of 3921

you're right, and I had given up on puts until I saw the "obvious" top at 1776 a couple weeks ago. Was up 40% on those QQQ puts in 4 days but that's just slightly up now as of the close today. So I've learned, don't be greedy with puts in an uptrending market, should have exited at the break of the middle bb. But I still think we'll see some form of pullback continuing here...the dow is now well positioned for some more down IMO...and I'll be watching the Nas to see if we head towards the lower bb. You're still short right?


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[WinLoseOrDraw]

allow me to be the first to make a fool of myself: $spx, $ndx and $indu have all seen tops that will last into october. as always, neither i nor the NoiseBox have any money riding on this "call". -g-

[TREND1]

Welcome to "Go Ahead Call a Top(g)"
There are so many calling tops, I think there should be
a central place to see them all.

Hey! Call a Top as many times as you want(g)