Gizmo's Grotto

[Namiar]

I actually jumped back into a small long position (21%) as COMPQ, NDX, DOW and SPX busted up to new 4-1/2 year highs, joining ATHs in RUT, MID and NYA.

If I dont have one of my models giving me a buy signal (which I don't) then I like to keep my long deployment to under 50% as my trade decisions are essentially arbitrary.

[Gizmo]

Stopped out on the close above resistance and weekly rising tops line. Think I'll take a break here too.

[Gizmo]

Enjoy the downtime.

Average price on short is 1692.

[Namiar]

Good Luck tomorrow Giz. I will be rooting for some big down action.

I dropped a few hundredths today. Had I done it right I woulda picked up a tenth. In the big scheme of things it probably will not matter much.

Went completely to cash for tomorrow. I find that when I have even small percentages riding on the markets, I am continuously checking for market update throughout the day. When I am completely in cash, then I will mentally disengage from the markets. Of course if markets are up large tomorrow I may stress it a little.

[Gizmo]

You're position is relatively neutral then. For today any how. Well, we're into some heavy resistance here so I'm going the full monty 100% short Ndx.

[Namiar]

Well I am rooting for some downside. I flipped 75% of yesterdays PM position into Ultra Small Cap. Or so I thought. Turns out I erroneously selected UltraShort. Seems like I F***-up in this way a couple times per year. Never works in my favor. Total long position about 18% in NDX and SPX, total short position in RUT around 12%.

[Gizmo]

I'll be boosting shorts to 50% today. Weekly $Nasi has crossed down which does not bode well for the IT. Typical seasonal inflows due to expire this week.

[Gizmo]

Very nice start Namiar.

[Namiar]

Well I took off the PM's and reduced overall port to 25% long. Tacked on another 0.6% today making it +3.6% YTD (Personal port not model).

PM's: will wait for XAU gap to fill before bothering with them again.

[Namiar]

I dont know what to make of this current hotness with the markets, particularly the NDX and COMPQ. Oh, cannot forget the NYA which is at ATH again. MID may be there too.

I am looking at pulling off all longs and heading to the sidelines today.

[Gizmo]

Didn't work out as I had hoped. lol, everyone else wanted to sell that pop open too. Had I been able to see that everyone had the same idea, I would have held long.

[Namiar]

Nice job on the quick flip Giz. Reading the news over the weekend it sure seemed that a down open would have been in the cards.

Not sure how my NDX and SPX longs will finish out the day, but a 24% cut in Precious Metals looks to provide collateral support.

[Gizmo]

Futures bouncing. Taking off Ndx long and switching half to to the short side and half to cash for 38/200 short Ndx. Outta here for the day.

[Gizmo]

Reduced Rut short to 7% and increased Ndx long to 38%. 55% Cash.

[Namiar]

My NDX and SPX models are both in scalp mode for the moment. As such I will not be moving to cash at EOD. RUT has not joined in.

NDX is sporting an average daily volatility at 0.55%. In the last 5 trading days, the NDX is down a cumulative 2.3%. The ratio of NDX to ADV is > 4, which is often a good buy point.

SPX is rolling at 0.39 for ADV and -1.8 for cumulative 5 day loss. So that index is similarly oversold per the 4X statistic.

Also I see that the RSI5 stategy for the NDX was opened yesterday.

[Gizmo]

I'm thinking some money comes in this afternoon. Manager's are taking a beating on their performance bonuses here.

Don't know yet what to think about Jan. as a lot of selling is being pulled forward to this calender year, regardless of tax advantages to waiting till Tues.

[Namiar]

You may be right about the ST bottom coming up. TRIN at 1.8 currently.

Internals are quite whacked out - up 41 down 272 on NAZ volume. If this were to keep up, my models should should be primed to scalp in.

[Gizmo]

Adding the 30% cash position to Velocity 2X fund. I think the market sees a ST bottom before noon.

[Gizmo]

Diversified across asset classes.

7% Commodities Rymbx
7% short the 30 Yr bond Ryjux
7% Short US Dollar Rywbx

30% Cash

Long Stock funds 28%
7% Basic Materials Rybix
7% Energy Ryeix
7% Financial Services Ryfix
7% Consumer Staples Rycix

Short
21% Short $Rut small cap index Ryshx

[Gizmo]

Bought some sectors but short on time. Put it up later.

[Gizmo]

PM's are making me envious. Gave up my position long ago. The current lack of rally could be fear selling from the decline last Jan., we could get a decent markup the first couple days of Jan. as much selling is being exausted.

So far it's dissapointing there's no year end markup by the funds. Maybe later today.

NASDAQ Holiday Trading Schedule


2005 Dates - Unless noted, the following dates are holidays that The NASDAQ Stock Market is closed.
January 17 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday
February 21 - Presidents' Day
March 25 - Good Friday
May 30 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 5 - Labor Day
November 24 - Thanksgiving Day
December 26 - Christmas Day (observed)

2006 Dates - Unless noted, the following dates are holidays that The NASDAQ Stock Market is closed.
January 2 - New Year's Day
January 16 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday
February 20 - Presidents' Day
April 14 - Good Friday
May 29 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 4 - Labor Day
November 23 - Thanksgiving Day
December 25 - Christmas Day

[Namiar]

XAU doing the new high thing again. My PM position at this point is covering NDX and RUT losses.

Will be exiting the NDX/SPX/RUT longs tomorrow at close. Tomorrow a half-day?? Seems like many message boarders are fearful of a Jan 3 collapse similar to this past January. As such it probably will not happen.

[Gizmo]

Nasdaq starting to look like a short. Momentum has dried up. A move below .20 on the Williams in conjunction with a 3-7 moving average crossover on the Nasi is a reasonable place to put on a short.



More whipsaws using the same indicators on the Ndx.

[Gizmo]

Went 200% long the Dow. Only good reason is they should goose it for EOY.

[Namiar]

I'm long NDX, RUT and SPX. SPX is twice the size of the other two. That totals 50%. I made a plan to stay long this entire week (based on historic performance of this week) so I will stick to it. Looks like I should be able to recoup a little today.

Then I am running a 15% position in the precious metals fund on top of that.

Seems like sooner or later the weather in the Northest will get cold again, and energy should respond.

[Gizmo]

Glad I did. Markets not looking good here, but I'm not sure we still don't get an EOY run.

What are you long?

Wanted to put on a long Commodity/Short Rut play but so far the energy component isn't giving me the entry I want.

[Namiar]

Nice exit on the 24th Giz. My models had me in cash, but stupidly I went against them and went with a 50% long position based on seasonality.

Which I continue to roll with.

[Gizmo]

$Rut short/long commodity hedged position for a move back down the falling channel. If I take the trade the purpose of the Rut short is to guard against a worldwide slowdown which IMO is about the only thing that would hurt commodity prices.

On the stock front I think the small caps are due to underperform the next year or two, thus the choice of the small cap hedge.

[Gizmo]

Commodity's


Considering a position on the assumption the bull market continues.

[Gizmo]

15 min. Ndx.

[Gizmo]

Exited my long trade for the three day weekend. Market seems to be straining under persistent selling going into year end. Up 13.40% Ytd.