Gran Tierra Energy Inc (GTE)

[love futures]

keeps riding up the top of the bollinger band.
why not? EPS keep getting revised up
very undervalued based on 2024 and 2025 eps projections

[roadkilll]

Sending another rig to Ecuador, good vibes
Following the completion of the Acordionero drilling program, Gran Tierra is now in the process of moving the drilling rig to Ecuador to commence its 2024 near-field high impact exploration program. Drilling is expected to commence in April in the Chanangue Block.
.
Pulling the rig from Acordionero by a management team that 100% focuses on low risk low cost development make it even more impressive. See the last 11 wells drilled in Acordionero were productive so why move the rig? Good vibes.

[roadkilll]

The Permian Basin Is Depleting Faster Than We Thought
06/ 30/ 2023
Goehring & Rozencwajg - natural resource investors
The most crucial development in global oil markets is depletion in the Permian basin. We first warned about this in 2018, predicting the Permian would peak in 2025. In retrospect, our analysis was too conservative. We now believe the basin could peak within the next twelve months. The implications will be as profound as when United States oil production peaked in 1970, starting a chain of events ultimately sending prices up five-fold over ten years. If we are correct, this could not come at a worse time for oil markets: inventories are tight, production in the rest of the world is declining, and investors are incredibly complacent.
* bullish trends for oil lining up for a whopper 2024 surprise?

[roadkilll]

Earnings for Q2?
Castilla oil differential increased to $15.17 per bbl in Q1, Vasconia differential increased to $7.87 per bbl
The trend into Q2 Differentials narrowed in March 2023 and continued to narrow in April 2023. The current(1) Castilla differential is approximately $11.30 per bbl and the Vasconia differential is approximately $6.30 per bbl.
Q1 = 31,611 BOPD
Q2 = 34,800 BOPD
Q1 Brent averaged $82
Q2 $77.93
Q1 Capital expenditures of $71 million with first half loaded and Q2 expected to see a significant drop. Guess -$20 million

[roadkilll]

The update pointed to positive cash flow in second half. Company has a history of including positive surprises on financials when releasing updates and I didn't see any in recent update.

[Miami Sun]

They’re saying they had a strong 2nd quarter this year. That should equate into a good report, no?

[roadkilll]

Weak oil pricing and development costs will likely look ugly on earnings this quarter. The CC could get really interesting. I plan to add if earnings rxn gives me cheaper entry. CC will be looking forward to second half of year where a lot of good things can happen.
Also a chance Ecopetrol's expansion plans include at least some GTE assets. GTE could sell a few things pay off 2025 bond and buyback shares.

[Miami Sun]

Nice news today. Can’t wait for Aug 1.

[roadkilll]

Fitch is a rating agency and one of their assumptions based on the info they see when closely looking at GTE books was the 47,000 bopd.
"Fitch Ratings forecasts gross production will grow at a CAGR of 15% in the next three years, reaching an average of 47,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) by YE 2025."
At the end of 2021
"Production is expected to average 34,000boed between 2022-2024"
May of 2022 Fitch looked at the books and saw
"gradually increase to an average of 38,000boed between 2023 through 2026,"

[Miami Sun]

Nice update. Thank you…

[roadkilll]

Ecuador and the under explored Putumayo Basin will be the icing on the cake. Both are already in the production stage.

[roadkilll]

Fitch update, Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
Fri 30 Jun, 2023 - 4:09 PM ET

Gran Tierra Energy Inc.’s (GTE) ratings and Outlook reflect an adequate capital structure and low-cost operating profile, constrained by a small scale of operations and limited geographic diversification. Fitch Ratings forecasts gross production will grow at a CAGR of 15% in the next three years, reaching an average of 47,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) by YE 2025. GTE will maintain proved developed and producing (PDP) and proven (1P) reserve life at 4.0 years and 7.0 years, respectively. Fitch estimates GTE’s debt/1P reserves should be at, or below, USD7 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), and gross EBITDA leverage at, or below, 2.0x, over the rating horizon.
Growth will come mainly from the Acordionero field as the company continues its development drilling plan while expanding its oil recovery program through waterflooding and the polymer injection. In April 2023, GTE renegotiated the agreement with Ecopetrol (BB+/Stable), extending the duration of Suroriente Block by 20 years.

[roadkilll]

June 29, 2023 -
Ecopetrol successfully issues USD 1.5 billion in bonds in the international market as part of its refinancing strategy and financing of the investment plan 2023

[roadkilll]

Why would Ecopetrol be interested in buying Gran Tierra
Ecopetrol is 80% owned by Colombia and cash flowing into government coffers is the focus.
GTE - 2022 Year-End 1P Reserves 84 MMBOE and 2P Reserves 130MMBOE
Reserves being in oil
At $60 oil at least $30 of cash flow is going to government coffers = $2.5 billion funding to the government. (conservative numbers)
Ecopetrol would also be getting the 2P reserves and the under explored Putamayo field. Likely another $1 billion into government coffers.

Is Ecopetrol interested? Apr 24, 2023, the company’s new Chief Executive Officer Ricardo Roa;
"When asked about the Permian Basin joint venture with Occidental Petroleum Corp. in Texas, Roa said it was “very profitable.” If you get rid of one profitable asset, you would need to find something that is equally profitable, he said."

Colombia has a current policy of no new drilling concessions will be granted. Want more you will need to buy a company with drilling rights already awarded, like GTE

[roadkilll]

Petro starting to scare Colombians
Conducted between May 3 and 5, when pollsters asked Colombians what they thought of Petro’s speech from the Presidential balcony in which he warned of “possible revolution” should Congress block reforms, a meager 20% approved of the public discourse.

* He is using money from oil taxes to feed the poor while attacking oil. The dip in oil prices have already made his policies look ludicrous and the poor know his plans will make it harder for them year by year.

[Miami Sun]

Not a bad day. Thought for sure it would go down the crapper but it held.

[roadkilll]

An oil nightmare today and Gran Tierra had a bad earnings report. Not expecting a bounce back anytime soon. A big positive from earnings;
"Transportation expenses per bbl decreased by 3% in the first quarter of 2023...from the fourth quarter of 2022 due to Ecuador sales"

[Miami Sun]

1-10 reverse split???

[roadkilll]

Started accumulating. Company has putting out impressive results on with returns on development and exploratory wells.
There is also a Intreampos II bids to be awarded in March and theLumbaqui site is large low risk adjacent to current Colombian and Ecuador sites now being drilled.

Feels like the bottom is in for the year.

[biglued1]

Smart. You'll have multiple opportunities to do that coming up.

[LasNubes]

$.95
Jumped back in here after a great flip back in the Fsll

[LasNubes]

$1.28
Ready for the next move up

[loki]

GTE to buy back shares
$GTE Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Announces Normal Course Issuer Bid https://quantisnow.com/insight/3349369

[roadkilll]

Ecopetrol just came out with a warning on how the new taxe on exported oil will affect them.
"The group calculates that the effective tax rate for mining and hydrocarbon companies would jump to 87% if the tax bill passes in its current form, from 53% this year."

The scary part is that Petro aimed the tax at oil exports in hopes he will get a quick approval from the new populist congress.

[loki]

Somethings gotta give here...not selling 1 share. Already half way through another quarter average $100 barrel.

[roadkilll]

Just saw where Petro has proposed a 10% levy on exported oil
Selling on that news as I think limiting the tax to exported oil has a good chance of passing. Will follow the story and GLTA.

[roadkilll]

Great earnings report with my focus on net debt being below $500m
Early 2022 the stated goal was to get net debt below $500m by (year end).

[roadkilll]

Petro has said he would honor existing exploration and production contracts so that oil revenues can be gradually replaced by growth in other sectors, such as agriculture, manufactured goods, tourism, and clean energy.

* 2016 Gran Tierra paid $550 million to acquire PetroLatina and the drilling & exploration sectors they owned in Columbia. Many years of exploration drilling ahead.

[kilshaw]

GTE Stock Lounge July 13th Q2/Q3 Financial Update

[roadkilll]

Fundamentals have drastically improved
Wall Street has the small investor totally paranoid and pulling money out of oil and gas sector. Expecting an update on how the last quarter went next week. Oil averages around $115.
Last update painted a rosy picture of cash flow with $95 oil.

[roadkilll]

Got my reply
Thank you for your email and interest in Gran Tierra.

The swap was cancelled due to the fact we did not get to our target of 80% participation, mostly likely given the rapidly increasing interest rate environment (case in point, the US Fed’s recent 75 basis point hike in their Fed Funds rate, with another 75 basis point hike likely next month, the most dramatic increases in 28 years).

This exchange was something we would have liked to do but certainly did NOT have to do, so we are not fussed at all about terminating the exchange. At this time and outlined in our April 19th press release management's expects to have year-end cash balance of $210 - $230 million versus the $300 million in debt coming due in 2025. We continue to target a net debt balance of between $400 - $500 million. There has been no changes in our strategy in terms of the issued guidance. Per the SEC’s ongoing disclosure and report of material developments requirements, Gran Tierra discloses material information on a timely basis as needed through press releases and other appropriate regulatory filings.

[roadkilll]

My guess is you made a solid investment, short term trade I have no clue.
Pulling the bond refinancing 3 days before it was to close needs to be explained before I add. Have tried to get a comment from management about why they made the move, if they respond I will post.
Watching Gran Tierra bonds trade on FINRA and all looks well and I'm sure bond holders have a complete explanation. I expect good news but the market is pricing in bad on anything related to GTE at a time where funds are flowing out of the sector.

[LasNubes]

I added more today at $1.23
?????

[roadkilll]

Probably an ugly week ahead.
Meanwhile Gran Tierra will continue to pay down debt and improve their financials. Also expecting to see some good news from the exploration approved and planned for this year.
There was a lot of risk priced into Gran Tierra and the selling needs some surprising and really bad news to justify even lower prices.

[LasNubes]

GTE already taking a hit from the election results in Columbia.

[roadkilll]

The fear of a Petro win is priced into Gran Tierra. In the real world a Petro win would need to make alliances in Congress to rule. Colombia also has an Independent Supreme Court
June 2, 2022
Colombia higher court rules fracking pilot projects can go ahead

The press may panic some GTE holders if Petro wins. I hope to double down on my holdings if given a price break.

[xqsme_imnew]

Add or don't watch today

[LasNubes]

$1.93
Feeling pretty good here. In at .85

[loki]

I'm holding to much higher. I don't know why this would not go to an all time high, especially if these Brent prices hold above $100...We got the tiger by the tail. I'm also in RECAF...

[roadkilll]

Sitting on a 3 bagger and not selling. Liked yesterday's update and with a little luck this one could be over $3 in a short time. Probably just jinxed the stock for all.

Revolver paid off
Projections for end of '22 with $95 oil is net debt under $400 million
Production reached 33,000 bopd recently as management predicted with ongoing drilling.
Drilling in new field began in June and the sub $400 million in net debt does not include any production from new fields.

[loki]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515559-even-after-the-latest-rally-gran-tierra-energy-is-a-buy?source=copy_to_clipboard

[Golf4Food]

You guys should be loading here in the 1.60zzz just sayin

[Engelhard]

$GTE was 17 cents in Oct 2020.. its now at $1.68.... Smart money is already parked here. Just a matter of time before $GTE hits record high share price.. in my opinion

[roadkilll]

Higher oil prices not showing up in this quarter as cash flow???
Last Quarter
Credit Facility Balance Paid Down to $150 Million at September 30, 2021
$67.5 million as of December 31, 2021
Cash Flow 65,784 December 31, 2021
Repayment of Debt. -83,516
Cash and cash equivalents 26,501

End of quarter 1 2022
Debt revolver $40 Million
Cash Balance of $59 Million

[loki]

UPDATE

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/04/19/2425030/0/en/Gran-Tierra-Energy-Announces-Corporate-Update.html

[xqsme_imnew]

Finally acting right here! Still so undervalued here - GTE pumping so much oil!

[roadkilll]

The norm ia for an operations update 1-2 weeks after end of quarter. May 5th for earnings

Posting this as a reminder when end of the world press follows coming elections. Petro's plans

Petro isn’t proposing to end extraction immediately. As CENSAT Agua Viva researcher and former Ecopetrol engineer Andrés Gómez O. explained a few months ago on the Colombian news site Las 2 Orillas, existing reserves would continue to be exploited and contracts with refineries would be honored under his plan. (CESNAT Agua Viva is part of Friends of the Earth International, a global network of climate and environmental organizations.) Rather than a sharp break with fossil fuels, Gómez told me over WhatsApp, Petro aims to “build a road that leads Colombia, in a managed and smooth way,

* Senate just elected 71 seats for governing coalition, 55 needed for majority
*Colombia is a poor country that badly needs a healthy oil and gas sector to fund social programs.
*Expecting a 3rd round for presidential election. That would be a June election and the more centrist candidate is expected to gain strength.

[66]

Date? On earnings report?

[kilshaw]

Looking forward to new earnings report. Revenues are going to be insane.

[roadkilll]

The Big News from the elections were the legislature vote proved nobody will have an easy time devising policy.
Petro did have an impressive first round in the Presidential vote. Round 2 coming in May. There appears to be a protest vote. Not a majority that would favor his anti oil stance that plans to replace the majority of tax receipts that oil now provides. Petro's economic path of tourism is just plain bizarre and would be a very painful path to take. Expect a lot of moderation similar to Peru where the leftist candidate is openly perusing foreign investment to expand the oi and gas sector. Same with the path the path that Ecuador is on and attempting to greatly expand oil and gas revenues.

No real surprise in the election. The stock did pull back hard but the price of oil has also pulled back around 20%.