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Gold expirations today, huge volume, lets see what tomorrow brings.
Setting up for a good pinch.
Under The Hood A Junior Gold Miner with Big Potential ❤️
A double in 2Y still 40% discount to NPV
https://underhood.substack.com/p/a-junior-gold-miner-with-big-potential?r=5futa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true ❤️
yup, they get it. and they are absorbing every ounce of it domestically mined, buying up cheap gold from everywhere else, they know the Fed and LBMA along with others control the Futures market on silver and gold, they have government Market Makers full time. They have hundreds of pieces of paper shares for every oz of gold and silver. They know the Fed is accumulating while suppressing it down. Never has there been so little physical metals available for sale. BOOOM time coming, the cracks are forming everywhere, Yellen screwed along with Powel, Debt is uncontrollable, GDP aint going anywhere in proportions to Debt and getting worse, negative real rates are here to stay cause real inflation isnt even accounted for, as in cheating. Its gonna be HUUUUUUGA, gold and tokens are the worlds only hope, and Japan most of all gets it, then China, then BRICS in general.
Timeless Junior Mining Stock Wisdom from Investment Experts – 2024 MSE Podcast Highlights
$Gold - Closed the week marginally below the 20 week MA...
By: CyclesFan | December 28, 2024
• $Gold - Closed the week marginally below the 20 week MA. That is the 1st time it closed below it since October 2023. At this point the odds favor a continuation of the downtrend until it hits the lower BB sometime in Q1. Keep in mind that the lower BB rises every week.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 28, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26319 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26358 and support forming below at 26242. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 2.272%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
China Gold Accumulation Accelerates as Financial War Heats Up.
Gold Battles Resistance Around 20-Day Moving Average
By: Bruce Powers | December 27, 2024
• Gold remains under pressure, with repeated rejections at the 20-Day MA signaling potential bearish reversal and a downside target of $2,582 in play.
Gold failed to reclaim the 20-Day MA again on Friday with a high of 2,638 for the day. Thursday’s high also tested resistance around the 20-Day line and gold was rejected to the downside then as well. Notice that the highs for the past two days were also testing resistance around a downtrend line (dotted). Two technical changes occurred today that deserve attention.
First, gold is set to end the day down and in the lower half if not the lower third of the day’s trading range. And second, today’s price action generates a lower daily high and lower daily low. This could be the beginning of a bearish reversal from a test of the 20-Day MA as resistance, which would be bearish.
Downtrend Remains Dominant
If further weakness follows today’s minor pullback the force of the downtrend could exert influence again and lead to the continuation of a developing ABCD pattern. The initial target from the pattern is 2,475 and it is where the declining measured moves are equal. Once equal, a potential pivot has been identified. However, analysis of gold’s trading history shows confluence of other indicators around the 2,475 target as well. This means it shows the potential to be a strong support zone and therefore can be considered as possibly a maximum lower target for gold if the current bearish correction continues.
Follow-Through Key Determinant
Alternative scenarios are that gold breaks nearby support levels and weakens but continues to trade above support from the November low (B) at 2,537 and then consolidates. Or it breaks out above the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,641, and heads towards a test of resistance around the top downtrend line. Five-day support is at 2,608 but it may easily be broken. A more significant potential support level is around this week’s low of 2,608 as it is a weekly low. This week will end as an inside week and therefore a drop through the bottom triggers a breakdown from an inside week.
Long-Term Bull Trend Retained
It is interesting to note that on the weekly chart (not shown) gold has traded above support of the 20-Week MA for most of time since it was reclaimed back in October 2023. There were several short dips below the line since then, but gold quickly recovered and there was never a week that closed below the 20-Week line. That could begin to change this week, but we’ll have to wait another week to find out.
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Gold’s Remarkable Year
By: Adam Hamilton | December 27, 2024
Gold truly enjoyed a remarkable 2024, relentlessly powering higher to many new records. Gold achieved a rare monster-status upleg, which proved extraordinarily-unusual. Big gains stacked up despite extreme overboughtness, speculators’ exceedingly-overextended gold-futures positioning, and American stock investors not yet chasing gold’s upside. Several sources of major global demand coalesced for the heavy lifting.
For the past quarter-century, I’ve been in the contrarian-financial-newsletter business. All day everyday I’m blessed to study the markets, actively trade mostly gold stocks, and share all my research and trades with our newsletter subscribers. Few people in the world have been as deeply-immersed in gold and its miners’ stocks as I have. Coming from this meticulous heavily-studied perspective, 2024 was totally unique.
One year ago this week, gold was trading around a then-nominal-record $2,075. Some optimism was building, as in early December 2023 gold had just carved its first record close in fully 3.3 years. Yet at $2,071, that certainly wasn’t materially better than early August 2020’s $2,062. Incidentally gold’s run leading into that was its last monster-status upleg, soaring to 40%+ gains without any 10%+ corrections.
My first 2024 essay published back in early January was “Gold’s 2024 Breakout Upleg”. It pointed out “New records generate bullish financial-media coverage putting gold back on investors’ radars. They’ve always loved chasing winners, and will pile in to ride gold’s upside momentum.” So I wrote “With record-chasing momentum buying kicking in soon, it’s hard to imagine this current upleg not at least challenging 25%.”
“If today’s upleg only matures to 25%, that would still boost gold way up near $2,275. There will be many record closes between $2,077 and there, which will greatly boost bullish financial-media gold coverage and investor interest.” A year ago $2,250+ gold for the first time ever seemed doable, but hopeful and nowhere near certain. $2,050ish had been a graveyard in the sky for gold uplegs for several long years.
Indeed gold stalled early on, drifting 4.2% lower to $1,991 by mid-February. The problem was American stock investors weren’t piling in to chase gold’s upside momentum, which was necessary to fuel major gold uplegs. While gold was still a solid 9.4% higher from early-October-2023’s $1,820 upleg-birthing low, the combined holdings of the dominant GLD and IAU gold ETFs actually fell 3.8% or 48.2 metric tons!
These mighty American gold ETFs are the largest in the world by far, launched way back in November 2004 and January 2005. According to the World Gold Council’s comprehensive global data, exiting 2023 GLD and IAU together commanded 39.6% of all the gold bullion held by all the world’s physically-backed gold ETFs! A UK gold ETF at merely 6.9% was a distant third. Gold’s fortunes often depended on GLD and IAU.
These dominant gold ETFs are a conduit for the vast pools of American stock market capital to slosh into and out of gold. When American stock investors flood into GLD and IAU shares faster than gold is being bought, their prices threaten to decouple from gold’s to the upside. So their managers have to issue sufficient new shares to absorb that excess demand, using the proceeds to buy more gold bullion.
GLD and IAU gradually grew popular in the late 2000s, and since then gold has rarely achieved a major upleg over 25% without big capital inflows into them. And a monster 40%+ gold upleg not driven by huge GLD+IAU holdings builds seemed impossible. Gold’s last two monster uplegs both crested in 2020, at enormous 42.7% and 40.0% gains. American stock investors piling in overwhelmingly fueled both of them.
During the first before March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic, GLD+IAU holdings soared 30.4% or 314.2t. Then in the second blasting higher out of that extreme-fear event, they skyrocketed a gargantuan 35.3% or 460.5t! Had I known a year ago that American stock investors would totally ignore gold in 2024, I would’ve been way-less-bullish. Gold-futures speculators could push it higher, but their capital is quite finite.
Gold’s record-momentum-chasing dynamic failed to kick in this year because American stock investors were enthralled by the AI stock bubble. Gold has always been the leading alternative asset, the ultimate portfolio diversifier. Investors are most open to allocating more capital to gold when stock markets are weakening on balance. But in January and February, the flagship S&P 500 achieved fully 14 record closes!
Yet despite American stock investors being missing in action from gold, it rocketed higher in early March. On that month’s opening couple trading days, gold surged with 2.0% and 1.6% gains to new records of $2,083 and $2,115! Speculators stampeded into gold-futures longs after a top Fed official’s speech seemed to hint at new quantitative-easing bond monetizations possible, which was likely misinterpreted.
Specs bought an astoundingly-huge 55.0k long contracts that week, the fourth-highest ever witnessed! In seven trading days starting with that speech, gold surged 6.8% to $2,181. Despite those seven record closes in a row, American stock investors didn’t care. In mid-March, GLD+IAU holdings still slumped to a shocking 4.5-year secular low! Who needed gold when euphoric AI stocks were rocketing parabolic?
Yet gold kept blasting higher anyway, achieving twelve more nominal record closes into mid-April way up at $2,388. But neither American stock investors nor gold-futures speculators were doing any meaningful buying! With gold’s usual drivers not explaining its record-shattering surge, we had to wait for the World Gold Council’s outstanding quarterly Gold Demand Trends fundamental reports to gain key insights.
Released about a month after quarter-ends, these GDTs offer the best-available global gold supply-and-demand data. Q1’s and Q2’s revealed strong demand from Chinese investors and central banks. I wrote about this in a mid-April essay on gold’s remarkable breakout. Straddling March and much of April, this is readily apparent in this gold chart. Gold’s young upleg had already achieved mighty 31.2% gains by then!
With American stock investors refusing to play, gold’s upleg should have fizzled out around 25% gains or $2,275. But Chinese investors were flocking to gold because their own markets were collapsing. From mid-February 2021 to early February 2024, the leading US China-stock ETF plummeted 62.9% reflecting a brutal bear market in Chinese stocks. Many government interventions failed to staunch that bleeding.
While Chinese stock markets burned, an ongoing multi-year real-estate bust following a bubble heaped on the financial pain. That along with China’s laws preventing investors from moving capital offshore left gold a fantastic safe-haven alternative. Chinese investors flooded in, fueling frenzied buying resembling something of a popular mania. Central banks were also big gold buyers, partially on momentum-chasing.
Central bankers in charge of allocating reserves are human too, susceptible to the same herd greed and fear all investors face. But central banks also increasingly worried about their hugely-outsized holdings of US dollars. The dollar was being rapidly devalued through mind-boggling US-government overspending, as well as being weaponized geopolitically against Washington’s foes. So central banks remained major buyers...
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Gold Has a Tough Week
By: Christopher Lewis | December 27, 2024
• The gold market had a tough week, but it is also worth noting that the week featured Christmas, which of course will work against the idea of liquidity being robust. At this point, we are testing a major area of support that must be held.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market has been somewhat negative during the trading week as we continue to see a lot of questions asked of whether or not the market can withstand the higher interest rates in America. After all, higher interest rates do cause headaches for gold as gold is an asset that doesn’t pay any interest, so it’s easier to own paper than it is to store gold.
Furthermore, the strengthening US dollar had been a non-factor, but I think we are getting to the point where maybe it’s starting to cause a little bit of a headache. Beyond that, it’s also between two major holidays. So that makes a certain amount of sense itself as a reason why we might have a lack of liquidity and a lack of momentum one way or the other.
It wouldn’t surprise me to drift through the uptrend line and just go sideways for a couple of weeks. But if we break this trend line forcefully, then I think we could go as low as 2500 pretty quickly. I still believe in the uptrend longer term, but in the short term, I think the gold market is going to continue to have a lot of issues to deal with. And it doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere anytime soon as the 10 year yield is now up 100 basis points in America after the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points. That’s not normal. So, with that, I’d be cautious here and wait for the market to tell you what it wants to do.
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Gold Hits Five-Day High with Resistance at 20-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | December 26, 2024
• As gold approaches key resistance levels, including the 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages, traders watch for a potential breakout. The December swing high remains crucial for confirming a trend reversal.
Gold advanced to a five-day high of 2,639 on Thursday and it is on track to close the day at its highest price during that period. This is a sign of short-term strength that included a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,642. Although the initial downtrend line (blue dots) was breached briefly, the 20-Day MA is usually going to provide a more useful dynamic resistance line as it is calculated.
There have been several days since the drop below the 20-Day line on December 13 that it shows as resistance. Therefore, the 20-Day line can be anticipated to continue as a line of resistance until there is a decisive reclaim of the line.
Faces Key Near-Term Pivot
Also, a key point to consider is that the significance of the near-term downtrend line may have diminished since the recent swing high on December 12 was established. A new downtrend line connects that high from the peak and with a new parallel line across the bottom of the channel.
The fact that the downtrend line and the 20-Day line identify a similar price area could lead to a spike if the 20-Day line is reclaimed. When two different indicators show a similar price level the breakout through the pivot can sometimes show a higher level of interest and enthusiasm than at other times.
Falling Channel Shows Downward Pressure
The new falling trend channel may lower the potential significance of a breakout above the 20-Day line. Also, the same would be true on a reclaim of the 50-Day MA, a little higher at 2,666. This is because the new top downtrend line represents potential resistance. It adds to the significance of the December swing high (C) as it is a lower swing high and part of the developing downtrend price structure. The current situation is that the potential for a bearish continuation of the falling channel remains until there is a rise above the December swing high.
Reclaim of 2,664 Weekly High Could Improve Sentiment
Another key upside price level to be aware of is last week’s high of 2,664. Notice it is very close to the 50-Day MA. Since last week ended with a lower weekly high and lower weekly (not shown) low a sustained rise above resistance from last week would begin to improve the bullish sentiment in gold as it would negate last week’s bearish signal on the weekly time frame.
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Seems wisdom these days is saying it will go higher when this, or that happens. some even say its going higher when it reaches a higher price....priceless. watch the sky boys and girls, moon shot coming in anything of value. Tokens, gold, silver, oil.
Gold Bearish Patterns Dominate
By: Bruce Powers | December 24, 2024
• Bearish momentum dominates gold's price action, with resistance at key moving averages and potential downside targets extending to the 2,474 zone.
For the past several days gold has been consolidating as it attempted to strengthen into the 20-Day MA to test it as resistance. It has not been too successful so far, having reached a high of 2,633, which was established on Monday. Since last week’s swing low of 2,582 gold established three minor higher daily highs but remained within the price range from last Wednesday, which often leads to consolidation. An inside day looks likely for today, Tuesday. Resistance has been seen around the small rising trendline drawn from the November 26 swing low.
Bear Trend Dominates
Unless there are clear bullish signs soon, gold is expected to turn back down once it is done testing resistance. It established a lower swing high on December 12 (C), which put it in a position to trace out a falling ABCD pattern (purple) inside a declining parallel channel. Two weeks ago, gold completed a weekly bearish shooting star candlestick pattern that triggered to the downside last week. Moreover, the bearish weekly signal was confirmed by last week’s close below the prior bearish week. This week, gold is set to trade inside week and looks likely to end that way as volatility diminishes during the holiday season.
20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages Hold Clues
Trend resistance is indicated by the convergence of the top downtrend line and 20-Day MA with the 20-Day line currently at 2,643. A little higher is the 50-Day MA trend indicator at 2,667. A sustained rise and daily close would be needed above the 50-Day line before the outlook starts to turn more bullish. Of course, a sustained rise above the 20-Day line would provide an earlier sign of strengthening.
A new top trendline has been added to the chart in red, starting from the October peak (A) and connecting the recent swing high (C). It establishes a possible new angle of descent for the declining channel and a dynamic resistance line, but only if gold rises above the 50-Day MA. Until then, downward pressure remains. Nevertheless, if gold can get above and stay above the 20-Day MA, the prospect of eventually testing lower support levels before the correction is over decreases.
Drop Below 2,582 is Bearish
If gold falls below the recent swing low of 2,582, which essentially successfully tested support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a minor upswing, then a test of support around 2,532 becomes likely. And if that price area fails to sustain support, gold may dip to the 2,477-target zone that includes the 61.8% retracement at 2,473 and the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2,474.
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Gold Continues to Stagnate
By: Christopher Lewis | December 24, 2024
• The gold market is somewhat stagnant at the moment, which makes sense, as the market is dealing with higher than normal interest rates in the US, and of course a lack of liquidity at the moment.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold has been very quiet in early trading on Tuesday, the gold market of course has been fairly quiet in early trading on Tuesday, as you would expect it’s Christmas Eve. But really, at this point in time, you’ve got a situation where the market is fighting interest rates, because despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates in America, the bond market doesn’t care.
And with that being the case, I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of whether or not rates continue to climb because if they do, that will eventually break gold down. On the other hand, if the market sees the rates drop in America, that could help. Remember, the Fed cutting rates doesn’t really change the 10-year. They don’t deal with that part of the curve. The 10-year hit 4.6% during the previous session.
And that is a bit of a problem because higher yields makes owning bonds much more attractive than owning gold sooner or later. So with all of this, I think we’re going to see a big push and pull situation, but it is worth noting that we’ve been in an uptrend for some time. While trends do end eventually, the reality is it’s easier for a trend to continue. If we can take out the 50-day EMA above, then the $2,700 level probably gets challenged.
If we break down below the $2,550 level, then I think we go looking to the $2,500 level, which is right around the 200-day EMA. In general, I like gold. I think the geopolitical situation calls for it as well, but the interest rate markets are going to have to calm down for gold to truly take off to the upside.
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Gold Sluggish on Monday
By: Christopher Lewis | December 23, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of nothingness at the moment, as the market is more likely than not going to be focusing on the holiday more than anything else. All things being equal, it looks as if we are trying to form some kind of bottom at the moment, but also, we have to keep in mind that we are still in an uptrend, albeit a sluggish one at the moment.
Gold Technical Analysis
The gold market had initially tried to rally a little bit during the trading session on Monday, but you can see we have drifted a little bit lower, and we are sitting just below the 50 day EMA. It’s also worth noting that there is an uptrend line just below, so we’ll have to see whether or not we are going to break down below there. If we do, then obviously that would be a big deal, perhaps sending gold down to the $2,500 level.
As things stand right now though, I think the market is probably more likely than not to consolidate a bit, mainly due to the holidays and of course the fact that liquidity is an issue. If we break above the 50 day EMA, then it’s possible that we could see this market go looking to the $2,700 level.
Keep an eye on interest rates in America because if they continue to rise in the bond markets, that does work against gold, but the negative correlation between the US dollar and the gold market seems to have been broken this year, which does happen from time to time. So, it’s not a huge surprise. But in general, I think you’ve got a situation where gold continues to be very noisy. Watch the 50 day EMA. It gives you a little bit of a heads up as does the uptrend line that sits just below.
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