Current share price 30.5p. 2 year target much higher, with a forward NAV of 521p.
Europa Oil & Gas could see significant re-rating in 2011 – finnCap
FinnCap published a note on Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) PLC (EOG on LSE), saying 2011 is set to be an important year for the group, with several high impact appraisal wells due to be drilled that could lead to a step change in the scale of the business.
The report came out a day after Europa announced the West Firsby-9 development well has reached a depth of 2,855 feet, has been cased and cemented and the rig is preparing to drill ahead. West Firsby-9 is being engineered as a 2,000 feet long near-horizontal producer for the West Firsby field in Lincolnshire with the reservoir expected to be encountered in a structurally high position on the field.
The broker said that, with up to five wells due to be drilled during 2011, Europa is entering a period of significant growth potential as it seeks to boost reserves and production.
“However, despite a well balanced licence portfolio, solid – albeit mature – production assets and an active drilling programme, the stock trades at an 80 percent discount to total net assat value. As a result, we believe a successful drilling programme could trigger a material re-rating as the potential value of these assets becomes more apparent than in the past,” finnCap said.
The broker believes that high impact appraisal drilling on the Barchiz and Voitinel-Solca discoveries in Romania provides material upside potential in 2011. If results are positive it expects both projects to move rapidly into development, significantly boosting Europa’s reported reserves.
In aggregate, finncap estimates 11.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) net to Europa will be targeted and it values this potential at 75.4 pence per share fully de-risked. Further out, in 2012, it considers appraisal of the ultra-high impact Berenx gas field in France a key driver, with an estimated 1.7 trillion cubic feet gas-initially-in-place.
Regarding West Firsby, it said a reserve report on the field has highlighted material infill opportunities that could materially boost production from the field during early 2011. The first of three infill wells is underway, with two further wells contingent on the performance on the first.
Finncap’s total NAV for Europa is 87.0 p/share and is made up of an 7.7p core NAV, underpinned by producing assets and a strong balance sheet, and a 79.3p risked NAV.
“Risked upside is weighted towards lower risk appraisal projects, with several potentially moving into the development phase within the next year. Unrisked, our total NAV rises by 500 percent to 521.9 p/share and offers 27x upside potential to the current share price, although future funding requirements in a success case would dilute this,” it added.