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XLE June 17 55 Put @ 95cents...
Weekly chart...
XLE M
XLE W BY ART HILLXLE DOES A DOUBLE THROWBACK... Chart 5 shows the Energy SPDR (XLE) with a big head-and-shoulders pattern and a neckline break in late November. Broken support then turned into resistance and held in December as the ETF fell back to the low 70s in January. XLE bounced in February and again challenged broken resistance this month. This second throwback bounce appears to be failing as the ETF fell back the last two weeks. At this point, I think resistance is holding and the outlook is bearish. It is possible that the December-January lows formed a small double bottom, but I would not consider this confirmed unless XLE breaks above 82.50. The indicator window shows the XLE:SPY ratio flattening out the last three months as XLE performs inline with the broader market. A break above .40 would signal relative strength in XLE.
XLE looking good 3 days into bounce. Looking for November 28th gap to fill on the daily:
Sector will consolidate first quarter 2015 as the stronger positive cash flow companies pick off the weaker over-leveraged losers. Law of the jungle.
XLE calls are golden today! Energy sector finally catching a bounce. Go! Go! Go!
XLE D
It's starting, I was a few weeks early...
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund Experiences Big Outflow
3/13/2013 @ 10:55AM
Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (AMEX: XLE) where we have detected an approximate $102.9 million dollar outflow — that’s a 1.4% decrease week over week (from 94,924,200 to 93,624,200). Among the largest underlying components of XLE, in trading today Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE: OXY) is off about 0.1%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is down about 0.2%, and Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) is lower by about 0.3%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XLE Holdings page
XLE $80 major resistance all the way back to 2008...
Time to Fade oil and especially drillers/explorers, i fell like we are going to see a pullback similiar to what has happened to the miners very soon...
MWDH_XLE_6_19_08
I have been told that "they" are controlling the oil
futures.
If so "They" must be controlling the stocks in the XLE too.
.
Hello Frenchee!
Sorry for not responding earlier; been busy with other things.
From looking at your 1 year daily chart, a pull back to several areas could happen. The 79-80 area would be one such area. The next below that would be the falling trendline that is around the 77 area right now.
Keep an eye on the $BPENER PnF chart for a clue for a longer term pull back. In my last post, it was looking over bought, and it still is over bought, but it has not reversed at all. This means the uptrend is still in tack. I would think any pull back that does not reverse this chart to a column of O's could be bought.
I post a breadth chart tonight.
Hope all is well!
Hello frenchee!
Sorry for the late reply; life has been busy.
In the short term, I agree; it looks like we should pull back. Up against some trendline resistance, as well as the Price and Volume McClellan Osc are in over bought territory. Both MACD indicators are also overbought, but have not turned over yet. Looks like odds favor a pull back. Target maybe the declining blue trendline, and/or the rising black trendline, around 73.
For the longer term, I am wondering it the XLE is finishing up with a diamond top formation, drawn in black. Not an expert in this pattern; just know it is topping pattern. Here is a link:
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/Diamond-Top-Chart-Pattern.html
The energy BP is still in a column of X's, but in the overbought of side of things. Given the short term outlook, tighten of stops would not be a bad idea.
Hope all is well with you and really like your signature picture!
Hello frenchee!
Sorry for not posting for a while. I have not traded the XLE since last year, so I have not kept up my charts as much.
Price looks like it has broken a falling trendline and has formed a rising channel since the 1/23 low. However, price looks like it is right up against some resistance, both trendline and price resistance, around 74. Looking at the price and volume McClellan Osc, both are overbought around +100. Finally, the red MACD line is looking overbought, while the blue MACD line is still pretty low (less than 30% of the XLE stock have a there MACD lines above zero).
Short term I would expect a pull back to the 72 level (the peak in that skewed W pattern), maybe even as low as the bottom of the channel. Longer term I am not sure. The blue MACD line is still pretty low, indicating the overall trend is lower. It would be nice to see it to start rising again after a pull back.
BTW, I have always like that picture of the Raptor(?) also!
Hello Frenchee!
Sorry for the late reply. I have been fighting a cold the last few days, and not had the energy to post much.
From breadth point of view, thing have definitively turned bullish since the Nov 28 bottom. Both 5% trendlines on the McClellan price and volume Osc have turned up, as well as the Osc themselves. Also the red and blue MACD lines have moved up.
However, from a price point of view, it seems we have closed right at some resistance around 78. Not sure if we break thorough on the first try. Not seen real well on the candle chart is the rising wedge on the line chart on the bottom of the $BPENER chart. You can really see the support at 74 and the resistance at 78. You can also see that the BP is rising and well above 50, both bullish.
My take in the short term is that we fall out of the wedge to back test 74, then bounce up and through 78.
I haven't looked at your charts yet, so you may be saying the same thing.
I currently have no position in energy right now, but just closed out a profitable SSO long, so will have some available cash in a few days.
Alright, good luck!
