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ABC consolidation breakout shortly after the open.
Next buy trigger came from a horizontal flag consolidation.
Target would have been off of an ABC set up
5 minute chart where I got my support/resistances from
3 drives down into a previous consolidation and stop loss hunt
ABC reversal/double ABC in afterhours.
15 minute chart shows price bounced off a previous demand/supply zone
3 drive down.
A closer look at the entry trigger
Double ABC premarket.
Double ABC pattern. This is from Friday premarket on ES.
This pattern has a measured move up to the 1.618-2.0 fib extension. I like to take profits at the 1.618.
This actually led into another ABC pattern that also went up to its 1.618 extension.
Missed target 2 by 1 tick. Link back.
3 drive down reversal. Looking for a drive up to the previous swing highs again.
4207 needs to be retested. Link back to second chart.
Double ABC move down. I totally missed this trade.
123 drive down, took 3 tries to go long. Trading hammer candles, not my favorite, but all you can do is trade the set up and put in a stop loss and take profit. Let the price action do it's thing. Don't try to guess which ones will work out or fail. If price action is still bullish and at supports you have to continue to trade all the set ups. Picking and choosing which ones to trade will often end up in losing more than winning.
Plan the trade and trade the plan.
T1 hit and stop loss raised to break even.
I am going for the home run on my last runner, and see if this can reverse and get back to the 4207 area. Triangle patterns are know for their violent reversals.
Went short follow up. T1 hit. Looking for a 123 drive down for a bounce.
Went long.
Triangle patterns are my least favorite pattern to trade, whip saw city.
So far 3 attempts to go long have resulted in 2 pt scalps and then getting stopped out.
I'm thinking shorting if it falls back into the triangle.
Went short.
ABC reversal/reversal?
Inside the consolidation triangle we had an ABC reversal pattern that suggested a short position.
If price can get and stay above 4197 it could lead to a short squeeze and my target would be 4207
Took out Sunday nights low. Link back.
Price is currently inside of a consolidation triangle.
Stop loss hunting.
3 minute chart showing the swing low from Monday.
1 minute chart showing the entry. Not the best 3 drive down pattern, but after 3 attempts to go lower I look for an entry to go long.
T1 hit stop loss raised
Stopped out
After hours spike and channel/bump and run.
My target on the bump and run is 4193 at the 1.414 fib extension. The previous overnight low is 4187. These levels are what I will be watching during the day session.
3 drives down, this was a pattern that repeated 3 times today.
Got greedy and didn't book my profit at T1 and ended up getting stopped out for a small gain.
Hammer candles are typically not my friend, but when they are a stop loss hunt and then close back above the blue 50 EMA, I have to take that risk.
4211 still has sellers. Need to break and hold above that price level, if so the fib extensions still line up with the ones from earlier this morning. Link back.
Spike and channel, if price can break to the upside, it would be very bullish if it holds above. If not it is a bearish set up.
Harmonics to watch on a pullback. Gartley pattern.
Starting to see some selling at 4211, key area to watch this afternoon.
Price is chopping across the moving averages, suggesting consolidation.
Overnight low was 4187, this is an area to watch on a pullback.
3 drive down set up like earlier this morning. Link back.
Demand zone/hammer candle set up.
Spike and channel break out to the upside. Price came back into the channel with an ABC reversal.
Premarket there was a set up to go long. Then a set up to go short.
Market open
Double ABC pattern at the Demand zone. Link back for original chart.
This is a really strong set up and I use the 1.618 and 2.0 as targets.
This was a chart I posted earlier but forgot to show the double ABC move and it's fib targets.
Then price came back up and retested the supply zone 3 more times, which is where I really start looking for a rejection to go short on a bigger move.
Demand zone stop loss hunting.
This is where a demand zone gets broken below just by a few points and then moves back up above the zone.
You still want to look for a reversal pattern such as the ABC move with a retest and then a break out.
A closer look at the set up that formed the ABC pattern with a retest. The only difference is that the B point didn't get tested, but a consolidation area did.
This trade set up did have a 5 point risk and would have had you second guessing your trade, but you can't pick and choose your trade based on which ones you think you will win at, you need to have rules in place and if the rules are followed for the buy trigger you should take it and follow the rules for the stop loss and the profit targets.
Scalping off a Demand zone.
You want to see:
1. Strong demand candle followed by an upthrust
2. Pullback into that zone
3. Consolidation
4. Close above consolidation
5. Retest of the top of consolidation
6. Buy stop limit 2 ticks above the closing candle in #4
7. Stop below the low of the retest from #5
8. Target back at the upthrust level in #1
Technically you could have taken a trade off the Demand candle using the same rules as the consolidation strategy listed above.
Here is the Demand candle set up along with the first pullback into the demand zone.
The second pullback happened later in the day and had more volatility and the runners got stopped out before the intended target got hit.
ABC reversals and the double ABC move.
In this chart there are 2 ABC patterns that come off of the supply zone where there are sellers causing a resistance around 4226
First pattern: Basic concept is an ABC move and then point B gets retested and rejected. I use a sell stop limit order 2 ticks below the rejection candle noted by the red arrow. I use 3 contracts, first is a minimum 2 pt scalp, after that target is hit the 2 runners get a stop loss adjusted to the orange break even price. Then the fib extensions give us a T1 and T2.
It's rare for this to be a total reversal in the case of a strong sell zone.. I would typically look for a minimum of 3 tests of the sell zone before I start to look for a bigger move down. In the next chart there ended up being a total of 5 retests of the sell zone. FOMO would have you think that price is going to break out to the upside and you will miss out on it, but price needs to confirm that first with a break out and then a retest of that level, which never happened.
The second ABC reversal had a period of whip saw action that took out stops like crazy, this is key to trying to spot and avoid at all costs.
Targets would be at the next area of support which were down past the 1.618 fib extension.
Risk management and taking small profits. Link back for entry.
The market is extremely efficient at taking out stop losses on days like today. You have to keep an open mind on price action, are they just stop loss hunting or is there a reversal in the making?
Price was still above all the previous areas of support. However there was a cup and handle pattern showing. The price bounced off another area of support from a prior swing low. All you can do it take the trade set up, the market has been bullish, so I am not as quick to go short as I was this morning when we had sellers present.
The market has been all about squeezing out the shorts, so that is a possibility here as well.
Again, I book the minimum 2pt scalp and set my runners to break even. Only about 15 minutes left in the day, so not the best time to rely on patterns, but risk management is a must.
4205 has been an area of resistance, need to squeeze up through that and hold above it.
Close of day another 12 pts added.
Whip saw action. Waited for another reason to buy.
When to take a trade when price is falling. The best thing to do is wait for a bounce and then wait again for price to come back into the lows of the previous bounce area and hold as support.
First buy stop limit 2 ticks above the break out candle above the black line didn't get filled and price went lower. Then we had a tweezer bottom pattern that gave a buy signal, and the buy got triggered at 2 ticks above the green candle.
In this case I would buy 3 contracts because there are potential targets higher if price breaks above target 1.
The next targets would be the channel from the overnight session and then the area where the sellers were at from earlier this morning.
EDIT
I should have added my disclaimer....
I always take a minimum of a 2 point profit and then adjust my stop loss up to break even on the remaining runners.
So in this case I actually took a $100 profit and then the remaining runners got stopped out at break even.
Price range with sellers at the top. This is a good example of a topping chart.
First chart shows the bigger picture with the overnight session.
Next chart shows the sellers coming in at the top and eventually they are done and the market drops.
Next chart shows the moving averages on it, I like to use these to try to spot an ideal time for price to finally drop. The key is when all of the moving averages fall below the 200.
Next chart shows price targets using the fibs. If you look left, there really isn't any support until you get to target 3.
I am still in CA, how are you doing?
Had some health issues the past year or so and trying to get back refocused on the charts again.
Gonna focus on 3 things:
1. How to spot and Avoid whip saw trading
2. Focus on price action at previous levels of price consolidation
3. Focus on buy signal entries with stop loss and price targets based on the pattern that is in play
Edit, forgot to add a chart.
Sideways days are brutal and will destroy your account.
back in the zone again.
ES slightly bearish first half of the day. Will they drive price back down into the buy zone or short squeeze into the close.
My guess for now is that they will bring in the short sellers and then squeeze them in the overnight session.
Watching this pattern. Will the market short squeeze it to the upside. It is suggestive of a bearish formation, but I would not be shorting anything at this point.
