EMERGING MARKET FUNDS

[Slojab]

Check your EMF! lol

Here's mine!

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/charting_mutual.asp?timeframe=1y&index=djia&symbol=MGEMX

[Slojab]

Don't look now, but a lot of our EMFs are at 6 month highs.

On second thought.......LOOK! ( :

Now, if they can just double from here........lol

[Slojab]

That's why I know about it! ( ;

[harr449]

I thought it was over 50.

[Slojab]

Nevermind about the catch up provision. She'd have to be over 50. Probably younger than that, huh? lol

Japan was just acknowledged as having entered recession, too. It's a world wide thing, so it's just a matter of time before they announce it, if they haven't already.

It's a Limbo-market. "How LOOOOW can it GOOOOOO"?

[harr449]

U.S. in recession, jobless to peak at 7.5 percent: survey

By Lucia Mutikani Lucia Mutikani 45 mins ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is in recession and will contract at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, extending the decline into early 2009 as high unemployment crimps consumer spending, a survey showed.

The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009.

Preliminary government estimates showed GDP contracted 0.3 percent in the third quarter. The results of the survey, which was conducted between October 28 and November 7 indicated growing pessimism among forecasters.

"Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit market stresses and evidence of spillover to the real economy," said NABE President Chris Varvares.

"Credit conditions continue to be tenuous. Despite the hefty liquidity injections by the Fed and the Treasury, the majority of NABE panelists believe that tight credit conditions will continue."

A month ago, forecasters expected the economy to expand 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, with the growth pace accelerating

to 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

Troubles in the U.S. housing sector, emanating from the extension of loans to homeowners with poor credit history, have engulfed the broader economy, resulting in rising job losses and tight access to credit.

ECONOMY IN RECESSION

About 96 percent of the NABE forecasters believed that the world's economic power house was already in recession. Half of them estimated the downturn started in the fourth quarter of 2007 or in the first quarter of 2008.

More than a third reckoned the recession began in the third quarter of 2008, and nearly three-quarters believed it could persist beyond the first quarter of 2009. Over 60 percent expected the depth of the recession to be contained, with the decline in GDP bottoming below 1.5 percent.

Overall GDP growth in 2008 was expected to come in at around 0.2 percent and top 0.7 percent next year, according to the survey. This compares with predictions of 1.2 percent and 2.2 percent respectively in October's survey.

"With the recession continuing into 2009, GDP growth next year is expected to be a meager 0.7 percent. This would be the slowest growth over a two-year period since the early 1980s," said Varvares, who is also the president of Macroeconomic Advisers.

Despite the gloomy economic outlook, the Federal Reserve would probably keep its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 1 percent, raising it by 25 basis points in the last quarter of 2009, according to the survey.

The unemployment rate was likely to peak at 7.5 percent by the third quarter of 2009, according to the survey. In the October poll, the jobless rate was seen topping out at 6.4 in the second quarter of next year.

The unemployment rate rose to a 14-year peak of 6.5 percent in October. With the unemployment situation expected to deteriorate, consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity, would remain depressed.

With household spending weak, auto sales forecasts were slashed to 13.4 million units this year from October's estimate of 14.0 million. Sales for 2009 were likely to fall to 12.5 million instead of rising to 14.2 million, as had been predicted in the October survey.

On an optimistic note, analysts said the housing sales rout was likely to bottom out by mid-2009, but a lot of uncertainty remains as new home inventories run at 10-months' supply, the survey found. Inflationary pressures would be contained as the economic downturn caps demand for oil, it showed.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE index, was seen rising 1.8 percent over 2009, 0.2 percentage point lower than in the October survey.

(Editing by Dan Grebler)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081117/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_outlook_2

[harr449]

Good point, don't know about catch-up.

I'll tell her to research.

Can't recall the details of the last recession.

I was looking @ an old DOW chart one day. Seemed to be a relatively sharp rise from 4000 to 7500-8000 area. So if it doesn't hold 7500-8000 area, possibility of further hurtin.

[Slojab]

Oh, the President's next stimulus package will solve everything and rescue not just the ours but the world economies. You mark my words! LOL

You remember the Crash of '87. How long did it take the DOW to begin to recover from that?

Good advice to your daughter. Does her plan allow her a "catch up" provision?

[harr449]

My original plan was to get back in with 25% chunks over a period of time.

Right now, that plan's abandoned.

Read a newspaper article recently that said a recession could be worse than the last one. Economy doesn't seemed primed for comeback next yr. with constant news of thousands of job losses @ big companies. Nortel Networks, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Whirlpool, Motorola, DHL, Circuit City, and the list goes on.

My daughter just started working and I advised her to not put any money in a 401k yet but I'm not a financial planner either.

GL.

[Slojab]

Getting out last year puts you ahead of the game, harr. Even with being down on that 25%.

I didn't expect things to get as bad as it did. Obviously! lol So, you gonna wait a few more months? Or, start adding over a period of time?

Of course, our "leader" doesn't read the papers. To do that, you have to be smart enough TO read!

[harr449]

slojab, took all my money out of MGEMX last yr.

I'm able to transfer money into a Stable Income Fund which typically pays ~3-4% annually.

Later, I put about 25% back into MGEMX when I thought it had bottomed. Lost prolly 50% of that.

Thought I could possibly use chart indicators to pick buy points but didn't count on the economy going so sour. Our "leader" said it was just fine several mos. ago but then again, he doesn't read the newspapers.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MGEMX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p23307289383

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MGEMX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14745302347

[Slojab]

Yikes! That's my fund, harr!

Still risky? Probably for awhile longer! But, DAMN, how much farther can it drop? And don't say, "plenty"! LOL

I didn't expect this much damage being done when it started. And it just kept getting worse. And may get worse still.

This is the first time I've bothered to check this board in awhile because I didn't see the sense in it. I knew it wouldn't be pretty!

Oh well, at least my weekly contibutions to my 401K are getting more shares these days! OY! Gotta stay positive! I guess when the world economy finally turns around, the emerging markets will resume their lead role in the recovery.

Sorry, I didn't help you any! ( :

[harr449]

Searching on "MGEMX", found this board.

Any thoughts on buying @ this time? Still risky?

[Greencake]

PowerShares Launches Six New Global ETFs
Friday September 19, 11:21 am ET
By ETFguide

http://biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/080919/27_id.html?.v=1


SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) - PowerShares launched a series of six new ETFs on Thursday. Four of which, serve as gateway to access some of the largest and most liquid companies in the commodities industry.

Even though Van Eck claimed the bragging rights for first in class ETFs in agriculture, coal, steel and gold, it is always advantageous to have options. Competition keeps the market honest.

New PowerShares commodity-linked ETFs:

PowerShares Global Agriculture Portfolio (Nasdaq: PAGG - News)
PowerShares Global Coal Portfolio (Nasdaq: PKOL - News)
PowerShares Global Steel Portfolio (Nasdaq: PSTL - News)
PowerShares Global Gold and Precious Metals Portfolio (Nasdaq: PSAU - News)

The corresponding Van Eck ETFs are:

Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO - News)
Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEarca: KOL - News)
Market Vectors Steel ETF (AMEX: SLX - News)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX - News)

[Greencake]

* JNK Charts * $39.75

[Greencake]

* VWO Charts * $34.00

[Greencake]

WAGBX Charts $11.99

[Greencake]

PHITX Charts $11.09

[Greencake]

IFFAX Charts $10.28

[timhyma]

Top Down Analysis With ETFs
Stockscores.com Perspectives for the week ending May 30, 2008

A strong stock in a strong sector will almost always do better than a strong stock in a weak sector. That means it is very important to assess whether money is coming in to a stock's industry group or leaving it. Over the long term, you will make more money by focusing on good stocks that are in sectors that are leading the market.

This means that a top down approach to the market will help us pick better stocks. Each week, spend a few minutes assessing the charts of the sectors to focus your attention on those groups that look good. Applying the same chart reading skills that you apply to stocks will help to improve your overall performance in the market.

For example, in the first week of April I noticed that the Canadian Energy ETF (T.XEG) was breaking out through long term resistance. I wrote then that it was a good time to consider Energy stocks and made a number of Energy stock features in my newsletters. They have all done well.

The ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is the best way to analyze the sector groups. I like them because they trade like stocks, making it easy to analyze their charts using Stockscores.

I suggest everyone do the following. Using the Stockscores Watch List Creator, build watch lists with the ETF groupings below. On a weekly basis, check the charts of those groups to see which sectors have good long term chart patterns. Be sure to look at 2 year charts when you do this, you want to find the beginnings of major trends and not minor moves.

I built the list below from the resources at the American Stock Exchange website, www.amex.com. There are over 500 ETFs trading on the AMEX, I focused on those that are the most liquid when creating this lis.

You can do the same for the Canadian markets by going to the TSX website, www.tsx.com.

Index ETFs
These consider broad market indexes and are useful for fining the areas of general strength or weakness in the overall stock market.
SPY - S&P 500
DIA - Dow 30
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100
IWM - Russell 2000

Short ETFs
An easy way to take advantage of markets that are likely to move lower, these ETFs go up when their underlying market does down, allowing the investor to buy something that improves in value during times of market weakness.
QID - Nasdaq 100 Short
DXD - Dow 30 Short
SDS - S&P 500 Short
DUG - Oil and Gas Short
SKF - Financials Short
SRS - Real Estate Short

Industry ETFs
Based on sectors of the market, you can buy the ETF to take advantage of developing trends in that sector or just use the ETF for analysis of that sector.
XLE - Energy
UYG - Financial
USO - Oil
GLD - Gold
XLB - Materials
XLI - Industrials
XLU - Utilities
XHB - Homebuilders
XLY - Consumer Discretionary
XLK - Technology
TLT - 20 Year Treasury Bonds
XLP - Consumer Staples
UNG - Natural Gas
DBA - Agriculture
XRT - Retail
XME - Metals and Mining
XLV - Health Care
IYT - Transportation
SLV - Silver
IAI - US Broker Dealers
IYZ - Telecom

Country ETFs
Country ETFs are an easy way to trade a basket of stocks from a specific country
EWZ - Brazil
EEM - Merging Markets
EWW - Mexico
EWT - Taiwan
EWJ - Japan
FXI - China
EWM - Malaysia
EWS - Singapore
EWY - South Korea
EWH - Hong Kong
RSX - Russia
EWA - Australia
ILF - Latin America
EWC - Canada
EWG - Germany
EWL - Switzerland





This week, I used the Stockscores Market Scan tool to search for stocks that were trading with abnormal price gain and volume action on Friday. I inspected the charts that were found for good chart patterns. When looking at the charts, I want to see stocks breaking from sideways trading ranges in the early stage of an upward trend. The trade set up needs to have a good trade off of risk for reward potential. Here are some charts that I like:


1. FIRE
FIRE is breaking from a rising bottom consolidation. The company rejected an offer to purchase their shares for $7.50 a share, since the stock closed at $7.64 the market seems to be speculating that there may be more action on a buy out action. This may be a catalyst to turn around the stock's long term downward trend. Support at $6.55.


2. LPHI
LPHI showed strong volume Friday as it broke to the upside from a rising bottom consolidation. Support at $17, the stock should be able to rise to $35 giving it a decent risk reward trade off. We may see a pull back before it works its way higher.

[Slojab]

Anyone know of a fund that shorts commodities?

Maybe one of the Ultra funds?

[Greencake]

Lots here Scientist....

How have you been?.... getting some nice returns on those long term growth plays.....China treating me welll.....also U.S. Big Boards hot hot hot lately as well

Cheers, GL, and ttys,

JT

http://seekingalpha.com/sector/india?source=sector

also ---> TTM

[Greencake]

IBOX Updated Friends

Cheers.....Emerging markets on a BULL RUN ....

[Slojab]

Glad to see the ETFs making a comeback.

A couple of them in the Ibox have even broken to new highs.

Mine's only about 10% away from doing the same.

[Slojab]

That's Bill Gross. And he's 88.6% in CASH! Holy Cow!

[Greencake]

yes....what a week Friend....lots of green in that IBOX....also alot of nice trend reversals

[Greencake]

* PTTRX Charts * 10.85

Yes Bitra, thanks for the post, PTTRX looks nice a small bond fund...This area is not my strong suite but I hope the info below helps....

Cheers and Good Luck Friend

JT

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pttrx
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=PTTRX
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/rk?s=PTTRX

[Slojab]

What a sweet day. Need three more just like it!

[Slojab]

You may be asking on the wrong board, Bitra.

A bond fund is about as far away from an emerging market stock fund as you can get. We're looking for double digit returns.

You may want to search for a board specific to bonds.

Good luck.

[Bitra21]

PTTRX - can someone comment about this?

[frenchee]

thanks--like the new charts...

[Greencake]

IBOX Updated

[Greencake]

Also a couple of great funds added to the IBOX...see if you can tell me what they are ...or just inquire...ttys and G L Friends,

JT

[Greencake]

Here's one for the portfolio my fellow player...AGGWX....one word, GOLD

[Greencake]

Nice ETF here...(charts)

KRE Charts (33.41)

[Greencake]

Latin America is a very reliable growth sector yes Slojab,

lot's of nice patterns forming on the emerging markets' charts too....will be adding several more ETF's to the ibox soon TOO...DIVERSIFICATION is KEY...

TTYS FRIEND,

Blue Skies, Green Screens,

JT

[Slojab]

PRLAX is about to reach it's late October high and the rest aren't too far behind.

Let the good times roll......again!

[Greencake]

That's a great fund Friend....added it to the IBOX....We all thank you for the input....


How's the portfolio treating you?

Well I hope, Cheers,

JT

Have time for a comic?

[Greencake]

IFN coming off double bottom....IBOX Updated...

Cheers Scientist!

Blue Skies, Green Screens,

JT

[Psionic Trader]

Here comes the RALLY!!! If this correction is finished, ( and I feel there's a high chance it's finished), ........ the emerging markets will see a HHugantic-GGGinormous run.

[Psionic Trader]

IFN on watch, about to break through resistance imo.

[frenchee]

thanks--useful link...

[Greencake]

Guide to all ETFs!

http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?page=0&pageview=0&sortby=symbol&order=DESC§or=ETF%20All&symbol=&datanum=1

[frogfan]

new Africa and Middle East Fund from TRowe -- TRAMX -- might be worth a look

[Slojab]

Ok, EM funds, time to get back on track, mmmmkay?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds_DC/MutualFundsDyn.aspx?cp-documentid=5768497

[Slojab]

Here's a good site that appears to carry all ETFs.
Click on "more funds". Each fund has a synopsis and chart, etc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/etfs/index.html

[Slojab]

Hedge Funds Ditch Japan for Asian Investments, Goldman Says

By Tomoko Yamazaki and Takahiko Hyuga

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are shifting Asian investments out of Japan because of lower returns and poor corporate governance in the region's biggest economy, Kathy Matsui, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief strategist in Tokyo said.

Japan's average return on equity will be about 10.2 percent this fiscal year, compared with 20 percent in the U.S. and 15.7 percent in Asia, according to Matsui. Return on equity is a measure of how well a company uses its cash to generate profit.

Meanwhile, Japanese companies are fending off takeovers by foreign firms seeking to boost share prices, by purchasing stakes in each other or taking so-called poison pill measures. Four hundred Japanese companies, or 10 percent of all publicly traded firms, have taken steps to fend off hostile takeovers, according to a Nikkei newspaper survey published in October.

``I meet foreigners all the time; there has been disappointment with the Japanese market,'' said Matsui in a telephone interview. ``So Japan has been the favorite short, and that's been the price action.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is down 4.3 percent this year in dollar terms and may be headed for its worst year since 2002. The Eurekahedge Asia Ex-Japan Hedge Funds Index has returned 35 percent this year, compared with a 1.9 percent advance in the Eurekahedge index that tracks hedge funds that invest in Japan.

The majority of about 700 international investors attending a Goldman Sachs two-day conference in Tokyo earlier this month were interested in investments in Asia, according to three attendants including Hiromichi Tsuyukubo at Myojo Asset Management Japan Co.

``Interest in Japan was on average lower than last year,'' said Tsuyukubo, who helps look after about $800 million in assets at Myojo Asset, a Tokyo-based hedge fund. ``But the good thing was that the conference attracted a lot of long-term investors such as college foundations and family offices

[frogfan]

best India ADRs are IBN, HDB, and SLT -- INFY, TTM, and WIT aren't bad either.

[utcheevis]

oh, duh! lol thanks man

[Psionic Trader]

maybe DUG? if it's related to oil and gas?