Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (ERY)

[02opida]

Direxion Daily Energ (ERY)

[zsvq1p]

Splitting and moving from 3X to 2X

[zsvq1p]

And I thought a few days ago was huge... today was another big day.

[zsvq1p]

There is a halt on trading ERY.. but back up after 30 minutes.

[zsvq1p]

High 36.11

Hope everyone got in... mine triggered a sell

[zsvq1p]

This meeting will pot ERY or ERX


June 22 summit may prompt changes to 18-month-old output-cut pact


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will its 174th meeting on June 22 in Vienna.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can claim success in its roughly 18-month-old effort to curb production—easing a global glut of supply and raising oil prices.

What the oil producers decide to do next at their meeting on June 22 in Vienna, however, could largely erase that progress.

“OPEC countries will be contemplating production levels that could potentially tip the supply/demand balance currently in place, leaving crude oil pricing susceptible to oversupply,” said Ben Cook, portfolio manager at energy investment management firm BP Capital Fund Advisors.

“Great work has been achieved in coordinating OPEC and non-OPEC countries together to minimize global inventory levels,” he said. “Preserving that cooperation will be extremely tricky, given the higher oil price [and] revenue-generating environment that we find ourselves in today.”

OPEC, along with 10 big nonmember oil producers led by Russia, agreed in late 2016 to hold back crude production by about 1.8 million barrels a day beginning in 2017. The pact is set to expire at the end of this year. The compliance rate among OPEC members was 158% in May (meaning they cut 158% of the agreed-upon daily reductions), said the International Energy Agency.
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The agreement has been “successful in an unprecedented manner,” said Omar Al-Ubaydli, economist at think tank Derasat in Bahrain. “OPEC has never achieved such high levels of coordinated restraint.”

Still, even as crude production quotas “have served their purpose eliminating the inventory glut plaguing the market, real risks to global supply have materialized since the quotas were implemented,” said Cook.

OPEC-member Venezuela’s output has taken a hit on the back of an economic crisis, with the nation losing more than 1 million barrels a day of production in just over two years “due to mismanagement, chronic underinvestment, and corruption,” said the IEA.

U.S. plans to impose sanctions on oil exports from OPEC member Iran have also contributed to concerns over further involuntary declines in global production and supplies.

Those worries have prompted talk of possible increases in production. Saudi Arabia already raised output in May by 100,000 barrels a day, to just over 10 million barrels a day, though it still delivered more than 100% compliance with output cuts, according to the IEA.

“The Saudis and Russia want to raise production to keep oil from losing long-term market share to other energy sources,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. “The higher the price, the more substitution, increases in efficiency, and higher production growth in the U.S., all of which have a long-term impact on demand for OPEC oil.”

U.S. crude production is forecast to hit an annual record of 10.79 million barrels a day in 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The June meeting will be “the most important gathering of OPEC ministers since the November 2014 meeting in which OPEC agreed to engage U.S. shale producers in a battle for market share,” said Cook.

Anas Alhajji, a Dallas-based energy-market expert, said public statements from oil producers so far point to the “continuation of the production-cut agreement, but with lower compliance.” Producers may also decide to “stick to the agreement as is, with [a] promise to increase production in case of shortages.”

In the event of an oil shortage, he added, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be “used first to mitigate the impact on prices” as “OPEC spare capacity will take time to arrive in the market.”

There’s also the possibility that OPEC may decide to eliminate output quotas entirely, said Cook. That could prompt Brent crude prices to drop $1 to $3 a barrel on the news, and gradually rise by $4 by year end. On Thursday, August Brent LCOQ8, -0.97% was trading just above $76 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

But under what Cook sees as the most likely scenario for the meeting, OPEC would decide to “modestly” relax production limits in order to acknowledge “the impact of falling production in Venezuela and sanction-related reduction in Iran.”

If that happens, Brent crude oil prices would likely stabilize at current levels, then rise $5 by year end, he says.

By relaxing quotas, OPEC would take care to “keep the market adequately supplied” but be “mindful of the significant progress in inventory reduction made over the last year and a half,” said Cook, “ultimately reserving the option to expand production should the market require it.”

[zsvq1p]

A reason that 46 could fill..

US Oil Firms Use Shale Know-How To Revitalize Old Oilfields

BURTON, Texas, June 14 (Reuters) - Among vineyards and cow pastures in east Texas last month, roughnecks started to drill in an oilfield that is 25 years past its production peak.

Houston-based oil producer Wildhorse Resource Development Corp tasked the crew with breathing new life into the field by using technology developed for fracking shale rock. In the limestone and clay Austin Chalk formation, which stretches across south Texas into central Louisiana, Wildhorse is among a growing group of U.S. producers opening a new front in the nation's energy revolution.

"The application of new technology to older plays is a winning bet," Drew Cozby, Wildhorse's finance chief, said in an interview.

After shale producers pushed U.S. oil and gas output to all-time highs, some are now taking what they have learned to fields that until recently were considered played out.

If they are successful, the U.S. energy boom could find another gear as producers find profitable ways to extract the billions of barrels of oil remaining in older fields.

Production from the Austin Chalk jumped to 57,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year from 3,000 bpd five years ago and up 50 percent from the previous year, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which expects rapid production gains to continue.

The number of drilling rigs in the Austin Chalk has doubled in the past six months to 14, according to data from energy researcher DrillingInfo.

Heavyweights ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil Corp and EOG Resources Inc have leased land or drilled here in the past year.

Other non-shale plays getting fresh attention include the Meramec in Oklahoma and the Central Basin Platform in Texas.

Devon Energy Corp is one of the biggest producers in the Meramec, where it plans to boost output to 140,000 bpd by the end of the year from 107,000 bpd at the end of 2017.

In the Central Basin Platform in the Permian oilfield, smaller producers such as Ring Energy Inc have begun investing heavily, hoping to rejuvenate an area that first produced nearly a century ago. There is no publicly available data on Meramec and Central Basin's total production.

Many of the tools developed to unlock vast shale reserves are working in these different geological settings - including longer wells, steerable drilling technology, complex mixtures of sand and chemicals and the hydraulic fracturing of bedrock.

"These fringe areas, like the Austin Chalk, could be the next big thing," said Bernadette Johnson of DrillingInfo.

More oil from Austin Chalk and other similar fields could push U.S. production to fresh records. Shale producers have for several consecutive years outstripped government forecasts, taking U.S. output to a record 10.5 million bpd in March.


Even without innovations such as those under way in the Austin Chalk, the government predicts nearly 12 million bpd by late next year.

"This is something that people haven't baked into the supply side yet," said Jeremy Gottlieb, who has helped finance companies bringing shale technology to inexpensive, older fields. "This is going to take people by surprise."

New Tech, Old Fields
Wildcatters first pumped oil from the Austin Chalk nearly a century ago, but output reached its peak in the early 1990s even though the formation still contains about a billion barrels of crude, according to U.S. government's Geological Survey.

That is not unusual. Oil producers have historically extracted less than half the oil from any particular field because the rest has not been accessible at a profit.

That is changing in fields like the Austin Chalk.

Based on test wells and modeling techniques, Conoco believes long, horizontal wells with multiple fracks - a technique used often in shale fields - will deliver strong results from its acreage in the Austin Chalk.

"What we were seeing with some of the newer technologies work really well in the Austin Chalk," Conoco Chief Executive Ryan Lance told Reuters.

Some wells they have fracked in the Austin Chalk have produced more prolifically than shale wells. Wildhorse's newer Austin Chalk wells produced more than three times the initial output of wells at the Eagle Ford shale field, the company said this month.

EOG also said an Austin Chalk well it drilled this year in Texas produced nearly 3,000 bpd in its first month, more than twice the first month rate of a shale well it had completed in the Permian during the same period.

The field's proximity to Gulf Coast refiners and export ports make it that much more attractive, she said. Rising oil prices have also increase the number of potentially profitable plays.

Some portions of the Austin Chalk also sit on top of the Eagle Ford shale field, allowing drillers to potential extract oil from multiple layers and types of rock.

"It's a stacked play," said Johnson, of DrillingInfo.

Louisiana Revival
Land is still cheap in the formation, which has helped lure more producers. Conoco leased its land for less than $5,000 an acre. That compares with as much as $75,000 an acre in the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, the center of U.S. shale drilling and its largest oilfield.

About 350 Austin Chalk drilling permits were approved in the last 16 months, a nearly four-fold increase from the previous 16-month period, according to DrillingInfo.


Analysts say they expect more activity to spread to the Louisiana portion of the play. There are 3,500 Austin Chalk horizontal wells in Texas, but only 32 in Louisiana, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Louisiana is counting on the Austin Chalk developments to revive the state's declining oil output, which fell 11 percent last year to 40.4 million barrels, the lowest level since 1945.

That might stop the drain of oil workers to Texas, said Gifford Briggs, head of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, an industry trade group.

Oil industry employment in the state fell 4 percent in the past year despite a rise in commodity prices, largely due to workers leaving to develop Texas shale fields, according to U.S. government data.

"It's an opportunity for some of our workers to stay in state," Briggs said.

[zsvq1p]

ERY Gaps seem to fill..

So if you buy today and sell at 36.06.. 4% gain.

[Sendme]

TVIX back testing a new strategy 80/20 RSI divergence. This is slightly different than the strategy I use with the 50 MA divergence

Back in JAN/FEB



some harmonic action


This last pattern would have caused a little pain, but sticking to the rules of the stop loss would have kept one in the trade.


Current chart pattern possibility.

[Sendme]

LABD back testing a strategy for entry and stop loss once a pattern is completed.

I was just looking at more ways to confirm that a pattern is ready for a trend change and found this strategy online and am giving it some back testing. It uses the RSI 8 with the overbought/oversold set at 80/20 waiting on a divergence in price and RSI ( I know that Qone0 likes the RSI 7 or 8)




This was a possible cypher trade quickly followed with a bearish bat pattern as the Shark pattern from the first chart was forming.


And let's not forget the target for the shark


There was one more attempt of an oversold RSI, but it could not break above the RSI candle after the divergence.

[Sendme]

Looks like I was right about one thing, shouldn't have held over a 3 day weekend! Ouch this is gonna hurt come Tuesday.

[Sendme]

I know it's easy to go back and look at the charts and pick out patterns, but it's also nice to know that the patterns work.

I personally like trades that have exact entry, exit and profit targets. I'm sure that there are a lot of other youtube videos out there, but Steven Hart seems to be one of those people that trade based on an exact set of entry, stop loss and exit rules. May not fit everyone's style, but I like to learn from them.

One strategy that I am just now starting to back test is trading the pinbar or long legged Doji candles. (Tombstone or Dragonfly Doji)



Shooting star pattern and targets
https://tradingsim.com/blog/shooting-star/


Looking for support Friday around the 74.10 area

15 minute chart looking for an entry/buy trigger around the 74.10 area. I did finally get a buy trigger, but with the 3 day weekend it may not have been the best choice to buy. (but I did)


It is not good practice to buy into an anticipated pattern, however it is good to know if a potential bearish pattern is on the table where shorters may enter the market and I should take profits. I bought in based on the dragonfly doji and not in anticipation of the bat pattern below.




Final thoughts would be support on ERX around 30.50


Daily chart on the .786 trend continuation pattern


Best of luck

[Sendme]

On the weekends I like to look back on charts to see what patterns they may have shown as something to learn from.

http://www.profitf.com/articles/forex-education/harmonic-pattern-shark/

ERX shark pattern


Bat pattern

http://www.profitf.com/articles/patterns/harmonic-pattern-bat/



Butterfly pattern

http://www.profitf.com/articles/forex-education/harmonic-pattern-butterfly/



ERY bullish butterfly pattern



FWIW Steven Hart has some great pattern trading strategies

[Sendme]

FWIW IMHO when I look at 5 and 15 minute charts, I consider them scalping trades. Occasionally if price is at a major support/resistance they can be an indicator of a trend change. But right now price is in the middle of a larger ascending triangle pattern, so I still look at it as scalping.

Taking trades in the middle of patterns can be a bit risky as it can either go back up or down. So I like to look at multiple time frames to see what we might be up against.


Monthly ERX could close with a longer upper wick, bearish.


Daily ERY now that we have some swing highs and lows we can start to draw in some trend lines. Trading as close to these trend lines is the higher probability trades for winners IMHO



Daily ERX I thing that a lot of traders like to take profits at the .618 fib retracement.


Same holds true for the opposite direction


This also looks like a Bat pattern, which has a first target of .618 and then a second target of the XA measured move and possibly a 1.27

http://www.profitf.com/articles/patterns/harmonic-pattern-bat/



ERY 35.35 seems to be an important area


15 minute chart looking for possible support on ERY


ERX can be a falling knife for now.

Best of luck next week. I will be looking for a possible entry on ERY

I like the 60 minute bat pattern chart with the .618 target 1 for ERX which is still bullish for ERY. Gets confusing. LOL but it seems a bit easier to chart ERX on the 60 minute chart and ERY on the 15 minute chart.

OK, just some thoughts. I like to post the different patterns on ihub so that I can look back to them during the day when I am away from my computer while working so I can see if any of the targets are close to hitting.

[Sendme]

Thanks, definitely looks like consolidation for a bigger move some day.

[zsvq1p]

Nice charts...

Now we have that gap down, so I sold at 37... That 47 has been out for awhile. I should have bought back into ERX to follow the gap trends.

the rhetoric out of Saudi and Russia has only exacerbated the sell-off today," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData.

I think this is going to pass and oil continues to be bullish..

I like ERX far better than ERY.. It seems the I've made the wrong choice on ERY more often than ERX in the past 3-4 years.

[Sendme]

I think that it could possibly make it. I am looking to see how well it responds to the RSI trend line. In the past it has at least bounced off of it.





Nice divergence


I work during the day so I don't scalp much, but this is one of the strategies I look for just using the RSI and price on the 5 minute chart

[zsvq1p]

Filled that 37 quick.. Can we get to 47?

[zsvq1p]

OPEC may decide to ease oil supply curbs in June: sources
Rania El Gamal, Alex Lawler


KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia/LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC may decide to raise oil output as soon as June due to worries over Iranian and Venezuelan supply and after Washington raised concerns the oil rally was going too far, OPEC and oil industry sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-may-decide-to-ease-oil-supply-curbs-in-june-sources-idUSKCN1IN2NS

[zsvq1p]

I'm going to say since we saw a double top on ERX and gaps fill..

[zsvq1p]

I cannot say it won't go up to $22 because there is a gap up that way.. The gap seems to always fill on this one.

- China slowing
- US now at price where shale and fracking looks viable - supply up = less profit for these in the ETF pressure may see fall back.
- US rig count up 28%
- North American shale is poised to flood the markets this year



But we have Saudi’s Falih saying oil cuts will continue...
- The pact began a year ago and has been extended until the end of 2018.
- weakening dollar this year

[stocktrademan]

ERY buy 10.56



















normal chart




log chart

[zsvq1p]

Humm? It's in that channel. It must break through $10.75 or so? If it does, it might pop pretty good.

Fighting OPEC cuts too.

finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ery

Could fill the gaps too.

[chetanind2004]

Namaste.....Grt time coming for entry here....

[JRT]

Sold all this morning @ 35.18. Stared new position later @ 33.93.

[JRT]

Dollar woke up! Going to be a good day.

[zsvq1p]

Yep... It will gap open.. might get some profit selling later to fill the open gap.. but this one still looks strong for awhile..

[JRT]

Looks like I will turn green today. Holding for a big run. Exxon having bad results would go along way towards a pop

[JRT]

Wild day! Flipped a few 33.70 / 35.35. Drinks on me.

[JRT]

Come on down. I'll take some more. LOL

[JRT]

Have a sell in @ 42 , but will be watching close

[zsvq1p]

Well... that gap just filled... what's the thoughts?

[zsvq1p]

If we bust through that 37.85 we might fill that gap.. But I'm thinking about holding...

[zsvq1p]

39.65 fills the gap.. Well see.

[JRT]

Added @ 35

[zsvq1p]

It might go down and fill that lower gap.. but I jumped in at $35

[JRT]

Back in @ 37. Maybe a little early, but will be back to $40 in a few days if not sooner.

[JRT]

Watching to get back in. Oil will drop like a rock Monday.

[zsvq1p]

amazing... reloaded in a dip around 38.. but just sold again

[zsvq1p]

love it... I sold at 32.47 and still playing gaps..

bought a little ERX at 20.50

gap needs to fill.. but we broke resistance.. so who knows?? ery might go 45+ to fill that gap.. If we drop below $30 again I might reload...

[JRT]

Went fishing and came home to sold out. Nice lick and will being watching for another opportunity.

[zsvq1p]

Wham... Da 32

[JRT]

I have thought 28 will be the bottom for some time now. I just don't understand the wide daily swings especially when WTI was dropping and so was this.

[zsvq1p]

Only Iran and Saudi war will drive this one down IMO..

I don't think we've seen the bottom of this market.. Do you?

I do see why $32.xx though..

[JRT]

I don't understand how this fund dropped the way UWTI dropped today. I was surprised when I heard oil was below 36 and this was red. ???? I am confused, lol.

[zsvq1p]

It filled the gap a few minutes ago.. And this ETF has performed as expected.. which not many do as both the erx and ery.

Not sure when I will take a profit... but expect some sort of dead cat bounce on Erx..

[JRT]

Have a sell order in @ 32.32, but watching to raise it. Oil is no where near the bottom in my opinion.

[zsvq1p]

I believe will fill that 30.42 gap today.. It almost filled the other day... reached 30.41

I still believe the market has not bottomed yet in energy stocks. Staying strong in ERY..

[zsvq1p]

We gapped up today... confusion.

I believe we fill the lower gap at some point in the near future.

[JRT]

Nice day here today. 2016 will be big here!