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Mohamed El-Erian: Don’t underestimate the possibility of a ‘Reagan moment’ for Trump on China
PUBLISHED 8 MIN AGO
Matthew J. Belvedere
@MATT_BELVEDERE
KEY POINTS
President Trump stands a chance of creating a new economic world order in his China trade fight, says economist Mohamed El-Erian.
“I think we should not underestimate something ‘Reaganesque,’” argues the chief economic advisor of Allianz.
“We win a relative trade war. In absolute terms we suffer. But we win relative to others,” says El-Erian.
President Donald Trump stands a chance of creating a new economic world order in his fight with China over alleged unfair trade practices, American intellectual property theft and the possibility of cyberspying, economist Mohamed El-Erian said on CNBC Monday.
“I think we should not underestimate something ‘Reaganesque,’” said El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, likening the current situation to how former President Ronald Reagan was able to change the global geopolitical landscape after winning the Cold War against Russia.
As El-Erian spoke in a “Squawk Box” interview, U.S.-China trade talks have stalled, and the two nations have stepped up tariffs on each other’s imports. In addition, the U.S. has effectively blacklisted Chinese telecom giant Huawei over claims of national security concerns. (Alphabet’s Google followed the Trump administration’s lead and suspended business with Huawei.)
El-Erian has handicapped three scenarios, listing the chances of a “short-term” trade deal between the U.S. and China at 65%, a “Reagan moment” at 15%, and a full-blown trade war at 20%.
“I think what you’re seeing is the status quo is coming down. And the possibility of the other two are going up,” he said. “If the U.S. goes full-blown with this as about national security, it can actually change the economic dynamics on a global scale. It really can.”
No matter the resolution, it won’t come quickly, and Wall Street is going to have to deal with the uncertainty in the meantime, he added.
However, El-Erian said the U.S. stock market is better positioned to weather the trade storm than are Chinese equities.
“We win a relative trade war. In absolute terms we suffer. But we win relative to others, ” he said. “I think the markets have understood that the U.S. is in a better place than the rest of the world.”
As of Friday’s close, which marked two straight weekly losses for the S&P 500, the broad-based measure of the U.S. stock market had still surged about 14% this year. Despite all the recent trade-induced turmoil, the index was only about 3% off record high close on April 30. Chinese stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index have lost about 10% in 2019.
“The realization in the U.S. is that this is the time. If not now, when?” he said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/mohamed-el-erian-do-not-discount-a-reagan-moment-for-trump-on-china.html
Medical Marijuana, Inc. $MJNA 4th Quarter and Year-End Financial and Operational Results: Net Revenue Increase 125% Year-Over-Year https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/medical-marijuana-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-financial-and-operational-results-net-revenue-increase-125-year-over-year-300834324.html
NYSE Nio Inc. $NIO NIO NYSE IPO Highlight https://vimeo.com/298211788
CNBC
Futures were mixed this morning. The S&P 500 on Tuesday set its first record close since September, while the Nasdaq posted its first record close since August. Roughly half of S&P stocks are still below where they were the last time the S&P set a record close. Ahead of Wednesday trading, the Dow was less than 1% away from its all-time high close from October. (CNBC)
* The Fed's key interest rate keeps climbing higher, and that could become a problem (CNBC)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) bid $76 per share for Anadarko Petroleum(APC) today, higher than a previous offer for the company by Chevron (CVX), according to a copy of a news release viewed by CNBC.
Dow components Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT) lead this morning's parade of corporate earnings, along with AT&T (T) and Biogen (BIIB). Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), and Tesla (TSLA) highlight today's after-the-bell earnings. (CNBC)
* AT&T posts a surprise gain in quarterly wireless phone subscribers (Reuters)
Snap (SNAP) shares were 5% higher in premarket trading after it posted a loss of 10 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 12 cent loss expected by Wall Street analysts. The Snapchat parent's revenue also came in above estimates. (CNBC)
iRobot (IRBT) shares were falling about 14% in the premarket after the Roomba vacuum maker saw revenue fall short of forecasts. However, the company did beat on quarterly earnings and did raise its full year profit forecast. (CNBC)
There is no government economic data on today's schedule, but the Mortgage Bankers Association issues its weekly look at mortgage applications at 7 a.m. ET. The Energy Department is out with its usual Wednesday look at oil and gasoline inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET. (CNBC)
* Mortgage applications fall as the highest rates in a month are spooking spring buyers (CNBC)
IN THE NEWS TODAY
The U.S. will send a high-level delegation to Beijing next week as trade negotiations with China continue, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said. Both sides have met several times in a bid to hammer out a deal to end their trade war. (CNBC)
* UK will reportedly allow Huawei to build out parts of its 5G networks (CNBC)
* Here's why China and India will remain on Iranian oil imports (CNBC)
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will meet with Trump next week to talk about infrastructure. Pelosi has tried to keep the focus of her comments on issues rather than increasing calls for Trump's impeachment within the Democratic caucus. (CNBC)
Kraft Heinz (KHC) is weighing the sale of its Ore-Ida frozen potato brand, maker of Tater Tots, according to people familiar with the situation who spoke to CNBC. Kraft Heinz has hired Evercore Partners to assist in the possible sale.
Kohl's (KSS) announced it will start accepting returns for items purchased on Amazon (AMZN) at all of its stores across the country, starting in July. This option is available at just 100 Kohl's stores today. (CNBC)
Rite Aid (RAD) announced plans to increase its minimum age for buying tobacco products to 21 from 18, matching a move made by rival Walgreens (WBA). CVS Health (CVS) stopped selling tobacco products in 2014. (CNBC)
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk sent a two-line email telling employees how great the automaker's self-driving showcase event Monday went, but the plan had a lot of holes. So-called Autonomy Day served to distract from Tesla's recent operational challenges. (CNBC)
* Tesla upgrades Model S and Model X cars, brings back cheaper variants (Reuters)
STOCKS TO WATCH
CBS (CBS) suspended its search for a new Chief Executive Officer, instead extending the term of acting CEO Joe Ianniello through the end of the year. The move has reignited speculation that CBS and Viacom (VIAB) may once again explore a potential merger.
Texas Instruments (TXN) reported quarterly profit of $1.26 per share, 13 cents above estimates, with the chipmaker's revenue also coming in above Wall Street forecasts. However, the company did warn that a slowdown in microchip demand may last for a few more quarters.
STMicroelectronics (STM) cut its full year spending target, as demand for smartphone and other semiconductors shrinks.
EBay (EBAY) came in 4 cents above estimates with adjusted quarterly profit of 67 cents per share, with the online marketplace's revenue also above forecasts. EBay also raised its profit and revenue outlook for the full year, amid a rise in active buyers.
SAP (SAP) posted on operating loss for its latest quarter, largely from a restructuring charge. The German business software provider did set a goal of expanding operating margins by five percentage points by 2023.
PG&E (PCG) received court approval to pay workers up to $350 million in bonuses as incentives to help the California utility meet its safety goals.
Lululemon (LULU) CEO Calvin McDonald told the Wall Street Journal that the apparel maker has no plans to cut prices, despite the proliferation of copycat products hitting the marketplace.
Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to "buy" from "hold" at Jefferies, which points to optimism regarding the electronics retailer's expansion of services.
CONTRIBUTORS
Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
@BerkeleyJr
Peter Schacknow
@peterschack
$MJNA "It's predicted that the CBD market could be worth $22 billion by 2022," said Medical Marijuana, Inc. CEO Dr. Stuart Titus. "We're excited that, in addition to this great industry progress, we've experienced our own tremendous growth in 2018 and the company is positioned well for continued explosive expansion." https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/medical-marijuana-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-financial-and-operational-results-net-revenue-increase-125-year-over-year-300834324.html
Zoom begins its first day of trading at $65, surging 80%
PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGO UPDATED MOMENTS AGO
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/zoom-ipo-stock-begins-trading-on-nasdaq.html
At its opening price, Zoom is valued at about 50 times its enterprise value, which is by far the highest multiple for U.S. software companies. Zscaler, a security software company, has an enterprise value to sales ratio of 30, according to FactSet.
$NIO in the race to dominate the auto industry of the 21st century, China is vying for the pole position with electric cars. Holly Williams reports. https://www.cbsnews.com/video/electric-cars-will-china-win-the-race-to-dominate-the-global-electric-car-industry-60-minutes
I appear to be in the same boat. You have a shot if MI makes it to the final four.
I don't think the Zags can do it.
8
SKI
*SKI's Swell Bracket
22
Duke
22
178
11
SKI
*Marine Life is Underwater
21
Michigan St.
21
175
Who were you? I don't see you on there.
As for Michigan State fans they are not familiar with their record against Duke.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/history/_/team1/5847/team2/6637
Tom Izzo: The Big Ten Deserves Better than Michigan State Being in Duke Bracket
https://thebiglead.com/2019/03/18/tom-izzo-the-big-ten-deserves-better-than-michigan-state-being-in-duke-bracket/
Shut up and play the game.
$SYN The Sleeping Giant Has Awaken
The bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 21 2019 • 1:17 PM EDT | UPDATED 18 MIN AGO
Jeff Cox
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
Part of ‘yield curve’ inverts as 3-month yield tops 10-year rate
PUBLISHED 6 HOURS AGO | UPDATED 32 MIN AGO
Thomas Franck
@TOMWFRANCK
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/us-bonds-treasury-yields-move-lower-as-investors-await-economic-data.html
* * $NIO Kabbbbooomage HOD coming
$CHK Chesapeake Energy THANKS FORCHEAPIES...ADDING MORE!
$NIO Going Green ))))
NCAA March Madness Tournament Pickems
https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/group/55961/invitation?key=4096c10d23b85e16&soc_trk=lnk
$NIO The Tesla of China $TSLA on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/60minutes/videos/611707332615390/
Some information already had emerged in an ongoing court case filed by UnitedHealth Group Inc.(UNH) against one of its own former employees, who is now working for Haven.
They are trying to cut out the middle man, UNH. I bet the guy had a no compete clause in his contract.
Health Venture Unveils Name, Site -- WSJ
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 2:47 AM ET 3/7/2019
Symbol Last Price Change
AMZN 1668.95down 0 (0%)
BRK/A 301375down 0 (0%)
JPM 103.72down 0 (0%)
UNH 239.07down 0 (0%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:00:00 PM ET 03/06/2019
This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (March 7, 2019).
The high-profile health-care venture launched last year by Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN), Berkshire Hathaway Inc.(BRK/A) and JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) finally has a name: Haven.
The new company, which has formally released almost no information about its plans, is also unveiling a website, which includes a letter from Chief Executive Atul Gawande, a well-known writer and surgeon. But the site appears to add little new detail on the venture's plans. Some information already had emerged in an ongoing court case filed by UnitedHealth Group Inc.(UNH) against one of its own former employees, who is now working for Haven.
Dr. Gawande's letter says that Haven "will create new solutions and work to change systems, technologies, contracts, policy and whatever else is in the way of better health care."
Haven, which was incorporated in Delaware as a limited liability company formally named Tcorp62018, will initially focus on the employees of the three founding companies, according to a screenshot from the new website, echoing company officials' earlier testimony. The site says that "in time, we intend to share our innovations and solutions to help others."
In its suit, UnitedHealth's(UNH) Optum health-services unit has argued that the venture is a potential rival, and officials from the venture have said they aren't competing with Optum.
The website reiterates that Haven isn't meant to generate profits and will "reinvest any surplus back into our work."
The company says it will focus on priorities including improved access to primary care, simplifying insurance coverage and making prescription drugs more affordable -- all issues that were previously highlighted in court testimony. In a Q&A on the site, in answer to a question about whether Haven will look to replace patients' existing doctors and insurance companies, the company says it is "interested in working with clinicians and insurance companies to improve the overall health care system."
Write to Anna Wilde Mathews at anna.mathews@wsj.com
Corrections & Amplifications An earlier version of this article misspelled JPMorgan(JPM) as JPMorgen in the headline. (March 6, 2019)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-07-190247ET
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
$CHK Chesapeake Energy Corporation
7 Day Average Directional Indicator BUY
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel BUY
20 Day Moving Average vs Price BUY
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator BUY
Aon Says It's No Longer Pursuing Willis Towers Acquisition
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aon-says-apos-no-longer-122545866.html
Insurer Aon in talks to buy rival Willis Towers Watson
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insurer-aon-talks-buy-rival-155321875.html
Thankfully the tornadoes haven't found us yet.
My trading has always been on the conservative side having lost it all once before in a previous life.
The kid is still not in the will. lol.
I'd have to agree with most of that ----- getting to be a STOCK PICKERS market. Personally, I've cut way back on active trading ---- at a point in life where we need to spend it instead of make it.
Our kids will be shocked !!!!
Hope all that nasty weather blew by you ---- some really bad scenes coming out of Alabama and Georgia!
First-ever, 1494 book on how to succeed in business is set to go on auction block, expected to fetch up to $1.5 million
Luca Pacioli's "Summa de Arithmetica: The Birth of Modern Business," is on display at Christie's auction house Monday through March 8. The book will go on the auction block on June 12 in New York City.
The 1494 book, the first-ever practical guide on how to succeed in business, codified the mathematical foundations of our modern and technological world.
Christie's specialists claim the book could fetch as much as $1.5 million.
Barbara Booth | @bjbooth2
Published 29 Mins Ago
In 1494 Luca Pacioli, known as the Father of Modern Accounting, wrote the first practical how-to book on succeeding in business. It introduced many bookkeeping methods that are used today and is considered to have prefigured many aspects of the modern business world. Now the Italian mathematician's book is set to go on the auction block — and Christie's specialists claim it could fetch as much as $1.5 million.
Pacioli's "Summa de Arithmetica" represents the pinnacle of mathematical knowledge in the Renaissance and is an icon not just of Renaissance learning but of the history of human knowledge, claims the specialists at Christie's.
Pacioli was one of the first to recognize the study of economics as a liberal art. "Summa de Arithmetica" codifies the mathematical foundations of our modern and technological world and includes mathematics, computing and is the first published description of double-entry bookkeeping.
According to Christina Geiger, head of books and manuscripts at Christie's in New York, Pacioli's achievement is one of the great untold stories of the Renaissance. "As Leonardo and others made revolutionary strides in art and Machiavelli did for politics, so too did Pacioli for business. ... The mathematical principles of the most vital features of contemporary finance are all present in the Summa de Arithmetica," she said.
On Monday through March 8, "Summa de Arithmetica: The Birth of Modern Business" will be on display at Christie's auction house in New York City before heading to San Francisco next month, then Hong Kong in May. The book will be returned to New York City to be auctioned off at Christie's on June 12.
In writing the "Summa de Arithmetica," Pacioli sought to include all the mathematical knowledge available at the close of the 15th century, which saw the European adoption of Hindu-Arabic mathematics and its synthesis with rediscovered ancient Greek knowledge.
Pacioli was also collaborator and friend of the famed artist and inventor Leonardo da Vinci. The two shared a home in Milan for five years, where they worked together on mathematics and perspective for several productive years that included Leonardo's creation of "The Last Supper," until both were forced to flee following the French invasion.
In 2018 Christie's had global auction, private and digital sales that totaled $7 billion.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/04/paciolis-1494-book-on-how-to-succeed-in-business-could-fetch-1point5m.html
Former bond king Gross says chances of beating the market 'much less' now
Bill Gross, once known as the "bond king," said in a Bloomberg interview that beating the market is getting harder to do.
Alpha generation is constrained by low volatility and has "much less" of a probability now, the Pimco founder said.
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 17 Mins Ago
Former bond king Bill Gross thinks he might be one of the last of his kind as it gets increasingly tougher to beat the market.
A month after announcing his retirement, Gross looked back on his career and took a peek forward at a market that he said is stacked against managers trying to generate alpha.
"I think there are things to look at that still exist in the market that can generate alpha," the Pimco founder and, later, Janus Henderson fund manager told Bloomberg. "The probabilities of generating historical alpha in the same way are much less than they were."
Easy central bank monetary policy that is tamping down market volatility makes it difficult for active management. The Federal Reserve and its global counterparts responded to the financial crisis with massive runs of asset purchases while keeping interest rates anchored near zero.
The result has been years of underperformance by stock pickers as well as fixed income fund managers like Gross.
"The opportunities are diminished," he said in an interview.
However, as central banks have begun to normalize policy active managers have fared a little better. In 2018, about 43 percent beat their benchmarks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Gross, though, saw his unconstrained fund lag behind its competitors since he joined Janus Henderson following a 40-year run at Pimco. The fund has since been renamed the Janus Henderson Absolute Return Income Opportunities Fund and has seen its assets slump to $914.5 million.
One of the problems with finding alpha is the lack of new products, Gross said. He also cited high-speed trading and its use of algorithms. He figures the market probably has gone as far as it can in finding innovative new investment vehicles.
"Markets have gone about as far as they're going to go from the standpoint of technological promise or new products, which is always dangerous," he said. "One of the reasons Pimco did so well wasn't necessarily from the genius of Bill Gross or the investment committee" but was "from our recognition of new products and our willingness to jump on board the train when we had the confidence new products were credit-worthy."
Read the full Bloomberg report here.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/04/former-bond-king-gross-says-chances-of-beating-the-market-much-less-now.html
The numbers didn't surprise me since I've seen this play out over the years regarding people who don't take advantage of free money.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146973915&txt2find=boeing
I think I'm ahead of the curve but I have a buddy who lives in MA who is retired and says nope not enough.
Now there are 2 companies that have been totally mismanaged. I have no idea what F is doing except selling F-150s and Mustangs.
Wow, at every age group level ---- I'm pretty shocked!
First, I know salary and wages have risen fairly significantly
since I left the workforce in 2000. And, at the same time,
the change(s) in conventional pension plans contributes even
more to the critical need to utilize 401-K more effectively.
Most of these look like the proverbial 201-K (at best) !!
But, I know you know ---- HOW to be much better prepared.
Carpe` Retirement !!
VW to Invest Nearly $2 Billion In Ford Self-Driving Car Venture -Sources
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 7:49 AM ET 2/26/2019
Symbol Last Price Change
VLKAF 176.62up 0 (0%)
F 8.76up 0 (0%)
QUOTES AS OF 02:44:39 PM ET 02/25/2019
BERLIN -- Volkswagen AG(VLKAF) is planning to invest around $1.7 billion in a self-driving car venture with Ford Motor Co.'s(F) Argo subsidiary, according to people familiar with the matter.
After months of talks, the German and U.S. car makers have agreed to make Argo the nucleus of an equally held joint venture that could receive additional assets from Volkswagen(VLKAF) over time.
As the industry begins to transition away from polluting combustion engines and traditional models of car ownership, global auto makers have been exploring alliances and joint ventures to share the enormous investments needed to develop future fleets of electric and self-driving vehicles.
A VW-Ford deal would create allies of the world's biggest car maker by sales and the second-largest auto maker in the U.S. with combined global reach of about a fifth of new vehicle sales world-wide.
The agreement to create a self-driving vehicle joint venture is part of broader cooperation talks that have been under way since last year, beginning with an agreement to cooperate in manufacturing light commercial vehicles, such as utility vans and midsize pickup trucks.
The talks are complicated, but making good progress, the people said, adding that a final deal could still fail to materialize.
Under the structure as currently envisaged, Volkswagen(VLKAF) would provide nearly $600 million as an equity investment in Ford's Argo venture, about half of what Ford initially sought from its future partner. Volkswagen(VLKAF) will provide around $ 1.1 billion in working capital for the venture's research and development. The two companies will both own half of the entity.
Volkswagen (VLKAF) could also link additional assets to the venture such as Audi AG's Munich-based technology group Autonomous Intelligent Driving and Moia, VW's Berlin-based mobility-services business. But initially AID and Moia won't be fully integrated into Argo.
"It's my opinion that you can't do this alone," Ford Chief Executive Jim Hackett said last month when detailing the company's VW alliance, which he described as a "foundational framework."
Ford has said it's spending $11 billion to develop electric vehicles over a seven-year stretch ending in 2022. The company also said it would spend an average of around $800 million through 2023 on self-driving-car technology.
The No. 2 U.S. auto maker by sales has been seeking an infusion of capital to help fund its autonomous vehicle efforts. Last summer, it carved out its self-driving car division as a separate entity to attract outside funding. Rival General Motors Co. last year received commitments for more than $5 billion total for its autonomous business, Cruise, in separate deals with Honda Motor Co. and Japan's SoftBank Group Corp.
Volkswagen (VLKAF) has embarked on an ambitious drive to invest as much as $150 billion over the next five years to develop electric cars and self-driving car technology. The company is planning to expand its Chattanooga, Tenn. manufacturing plant to build electric cars in the U.S., one of 16 electric car plants that the company plans to build world-wide in the next few years.
Ford and VW are discussing licensing VW's new electric-vehicle technology, a standardized system of building-block technology called MEB that allows VW to build a variety of fully electric models across its passenger car brands VW, Audi, Skoda and Seat.
Under the initial agreement that Ford and VW announced in January, Ford will produce light commercial vehicles and medium-size pickup trucks for both companies, expecting to launch the first vehicles by early 2022. VW will in turn produce city vans for the venture.
"Over the course of negotiations we constantly broadened the scope of discussions," Mr. Diess told reporters at the time. "We believe we can explore further collaboration opportunities in exactly those fields that will be pivotal for future success in the auto industry."
Write to William Boston at william.boston@wsj.com and Mike Colias at Mike.Colias@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-26-190749ET
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
The Average 401(k) Balance by Age
It's fun to rubberneck at 401(k) balance averages, but they won't tell you much about your own retirement readiness.
ARIELLE O'SHEA
JANUARY 24, 2019
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/the-average-401k-balance-by-age