CHARTS: $SPX, TNA, and AAPL

[ospreyeye]

$SPX Chart.......Bearish Engulfing Reversal pattern forming today........

1st support level is MA(10) @ 1535.83...........the big boards are set up for a breather.......the markets are in major Bull mode......should be some great buying opportunities after the pullback............$$$

[LisaAu]

$SPX turned Up yesterday about 1230 (NYT) while I was away.

Testing resistance presently.

Be aware two big weeks of earnings coming up, e.g., INTC, AAPL, etc.

Trend is Up barring major bad economic news.

[LisaAu]

It's important to remember price action and then moving averages rule.

All other technical indicators that are derivatives of price action are secondary.

[LisaAu]

Some leveraged ETFs to follow:

SPXL
SPXS
SOXL
SOXS
TECL
TECS

. . . for possible day or swing trading only, IMO.

[LisaAu]

Remember $SPX moving Up and Down has implications for the various leveraged S&P 500 based ETFs such as bullish SSO, etc.

How many bullish and bearish ones are there, anyway?

You can gain a lot by watching $SPX.

[LisaAu]

You're welcome.

For those who were watching the hourly chart yesterday, 5 July, you saw a Down signal late session.

The chart knows.

[dontyre]

Thanks for leaving them up!

[LisaAu]

The charts on this site sure have been showing some nice signals.

But only if you watch.

There's no signal if no one is there to watch.

[LisaAu]

UPRO - the 3x S&P 500 ETF:



Watch price action, MAs, and STO. Anything more than that is likely a distraction. One may even say two MAs are unnecessary, one may be sufficient.

[LisaAu]

If you were watching the 15 or 60 min $SPX charts yesterday you saw this move developing toward the market close as the green line (EMA 7 or 2 respectively) peaked.

That combined with Italy's debt yields rising, the general anxious nature of eurozone participants, and the S&P Futures turning down overnight sealed the deal.

Down it goes. . .

[LisaAu]

I agree.

S&P futures are in the red presently and may be starting a bigger move down. . .

[TREND1]

Lisa
Right now I am using the 7 tests to confirm a valid channel break to the up side in TZA_D

PS: Which is no where in sight. IMHO

[TREND1]

Lisa
Rank would be a simple as 1,2,3

First macd(2,4,1) > 0 you can give it a 3 or 4 or what ever.

[TREND1]

Lisa
Here is code for your system
************************ mach(2,4,1) > 0 = 1 *******************/

if(macd(2,4,1) > 0)
{COUNTS = COUNTS+1; }

if(macd(2,4,1) <= 0)
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }
/************************ sto(14,3,1) < 20 -1 *******************/

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) < 20 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) > 80 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS +1; }

/************************ sto(14,3,1) < 50 -1 *******************/

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) < 50 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) > 50 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS +1; }



/******************************** ********************************/
} // END NEW BAR

[LisaAu]

How would you rank the various indicators in terms of significance, power, or, say, practical importance to a trader?

[TREND1]

Lisa
Notice we now two systems
(1) First chart with 7 indicators
(2) And your system with 3 indicator

PS: Note Many systems can be looked at.....all at once.

[TREND1]

Lisa
Added another bottom chart called 02_BS_COUNTS
Has
(1)MACD(2,4,1) > o add 1 to COUNTS for that day.
(2)stochK
(a) COUNTS = add 1 if sto > 80
(b) COUNTS = add another 1 if stoc > 50

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68727342

[LisaAu]

Yes, TZA turns negative in the first week of October, and continues negative, but bears watching:

[TREND1]

Lisa
Let's look at an example
macd(2,4,1) > 0
means EMA(2) > EMA(4)
COUNTS = COUNTS +1

if (EMA(2) < EMA(4))
COUNTS = COUNTS -1

[TREND1]

Lisa
The bottom chart "BS COUNTS" goes
negative below RED ZERO = trend is down.

Example : Daily TZA has been negative since OCT 3, 2011

PS: This chart is based on your idea " if 3 out 4 are up ,
the trend is UP"

[LisaAu]

TREND1, What do you make of this chart?

What does this tell you?

[TREND1]

Lisa
Do you have any thing to add to 7 charts ?
May be I can program !

[TREND1]

Lisa
Here is code for 7 charts

if(getBarState() == BARSTATE_NEWBAR){ // START NEW BAR
i=i+1; COUNTS=0;
/************* REB BARS = -1 BLUE bar = +1 GREEN BAR = 2 ********************/
if(i>1 && macd(1,13,1) > 0 && macdHist(12,26,9,0) > macdHist(12,26,9,-1))
{setPriceBarColor(Color.lime); COUNTS = COUNTS+2; }

if(i>1 && macd(1,13,1) > 0 && macdHist(12,26,9,0) < macdHist(12,26,9,-1))
{setPriceBarColor(Color.blue); COUNTS = COUNTS+1; }

if(i>1 && macd(1,13,1) < 0 && macdHist(12,26,9,0) > macdHist(12,26,9,-1))
{setPriceBarColor(Color.blue); COUNTS = COUNTS+1; }

if(i>1 && macd(1,13,1) < 0 && macdHist(12,26,9,0) < macdHist(12,26,9,-1))
{setPriceBarColor(Color.red); COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }



/*********************** macd(1,13,1) > 0 = 1 ***********************/
if(macd(1,13,1) > 0)
{COUNTS = COUNTS+1; }

if(macd(1,13,1) <= 0)
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }

/*********************** slope ema(13) UP = 1 ***********************/
if(ema(13) > ema(13,-1))
{COUNTS = COUNTS+1; }


if(ema(13) < ema(13,-1))
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }


/************************ mach(2,4,1) > 0 = 1 *******************/

if(macd(2,4,1) > 0)
{COUNTS = COUNTS+1; }

if(macd(2,4,1) <= 0)
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }
/************************ sto(14,3,1) < 20 -1 *******************/

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) < 20 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) > 80 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS +1; }

/************************ sto(14,3,1) < 50 -1 *******************/

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) < 50 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS-1; }

if(stochK(14, 1, 3) > 50 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS +1; }


/******************************** cci(1) < -100 = -1 AND CCI(1) > 100 = +1 *****************/
if(cci(10) < -100 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS-2; }

if(cci(10) > 100 )
{COUNTS = COUNTS +2; }

/******************************** ********************************/
} // END NEW BAR

[TREND1]

Lisa
Last chart called BS_COUNTS has 7 charts with in it.

[TREND1]

$SPX, TNA, and AAPL: Charts are in IBox above.

[TREND1]

Lisa
SORRY
I deleted your YELLOW by mistake.
And one can not put them back.
If they over 48 hours old.

[LisaAu]

Uptrend that started yesterday PM for $SPX and TNA continues.

AAPL joined today.

But note how you may be late to the run if you only follow Daily or longer charts.

Hourly charts are informative. . .

[TREND1]

Interesting.
Maybe a way to determine the right PPO(x,y,1) ?
Will study later .....

[LisaAu]

As one moves out to longer time frame charts the optimal EMA merges with price action.

An EMA of 1 is price action.

Watch price action on all time frames. All derivatives are secondary.

[LisaAu]

$SPX, TNA, and AAPL all continue Down today.

We'll see if there's a bounce later today or tomorrow.

Maybe the start of one. . .only the chart knows, and only the chart will tell.

[TREND1]

Lisa
Recall you saying that over 20 years ago.
And still use that info about time frames.

[LisaAu]

The interested student of the market can find out how these short term setups develop and are resolved by checking shorter time frame charts, e.g., 15 or 5 min ones, etc.

Use larger EMAs for the shorter charts, shorter ones for the longer time frame charts.

[LisaAu]

Notice how the decline for TNA started early today and the late day counter trend rally culminated in a short setup about 1430 (NYT) as shown by the STO action:

[TREND1]

06_TNA_D

[LisaAu]

If you were watching the 60 min (or faster) chart today you saw $SPX, TNA, and eventually AAPL turn lower, as indicated by price action, EMAs, STO and MACD.

If you want to check for faster price action go to shorter time frame charts (30, 15 min, etc.) all the way down to tick data, if that is what you want.

[LisaAu]

AAPL counter trending the broader market today.

[LisaAu]

Futures turning down yesterday (overnight) presaged gap down this AM.

[LisaAu]

As far as efficiency is concerned an intraday trader (day or swing) may be prudent to simply attend to price action and one of the following EMA sets:

2,4
5,8
7,11
9,16,

where, in general, there is an inverse relationship between the size of the EMAs and the chart time frame, with the shortest time frame 15 min and the longest 120 min.

If one wants, watch STO for a hint of directional changes to come.

Stay as calm as possible during the process. Exit at the end of the day if comfortable sleep is an issue.

[TREND1]

Some may ask why I am studying Lisa
The simple answer is
Lisa is the BEST.IMHO.

[TREND1]

Lisa TNA interpreted by TREND1
.
05_TNA_60

.
06_TNA_D

[LisaAu]

$SPX, TNA, and AAPL: Charts in the Board Info Box above.

[LisaAu]

More from Kahneman: Nobel Prize Winner: Stock Advisors are Worthless

http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2011/10/24/nobel-prize-winner-stock-advisors-are-worthless/

[LisaAu]

Didn't someone say, "Never short a dull market."

;)

[LisaAu]

Book Review: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/book-review-thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-10272011.html

Smart book.

Read it and think.

[LisaAu]

$SPX, TNA, and AAPL marginally Down.

[LisaAu]

Markets nearly flat this AM.

No significant change for $SPX, TNA, and AAPL. Bias appears higher, presently.

[LisaAu]

The problem with backtesting is it doesn't take into consideration the human element, the trader's emotions, and "information" collected from other sources, e.g., iHub, CNBC talk, eurozone issues, futures on the CME, etc.

Humans are messy information processors made of meat, not silicon gate computers.

The task is to keep things as simple as possible, practical, and prompt. Strive to stay on the right side of the market, use protection, stops, etc.

[LisaAu]

All of those are important for consideration. . .that's where judgment comes in, plus willingness to monitor closely, hold overnight, etc.

[TREND1]

Must sleep
Been up since 4 AM
More Friday ......

[LisaAu]

IMO, TNA 60 is still Up, but very risky for buying now. . .don't be surprised if it turns Down tomorrow.