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S+P 500 teetering near support, but still early. Going into the close this afternoon should 'tell the tale'.
Doesn't appear to be much enthusiasm for a bounce, and just a matter of time before the flush comes, which then triggers Wall Street short algos.
Alternately, there might be a bounce and temporary reprieve, but not looking good.
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'Flush' is at hand? The S+P 500 looks poised to fall into bear market territory, possibly today. Here are the key support levels to watch (approx), but not looking good folks -
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement --- 3858
20% Bear Market level ------------- 3855
Once broken, next support looks like the 3600 area (Sept 2020 high).
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>>> Short Sellers Line Up Against Stocks as Bearish Bond Bets Vanish
Bloomberg
by Katie Greifeld
May 19, 2022
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sellers-line-against-stocks-172712124.html
(Bloomberg) -- High-profile warnings over a possible US recession has investors bracing for a slowdown.
Short interest in the $352 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) as a percentage of shares outstanding is above 7%, close to the highest since March 2020, IHS Markit Ltd. data show. Meanwhile, bets against the $19.5 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (TLT) have shrunk to just 3.5%, the lowest since September 2020.
The dynamic highlights the building anxiety over the US economy as price pressures boil over. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that “growth has to move down” for inflation to cool, and as a result, there “could be some pain involved” in restoring price stability. While that environment would likely benefit long-dated Treasuries, equities would struggle, according to Peter Tchir of Academy Securities.
“We are starting to shift from ‘inflation’ fears to ‘recession’ fears, so I think that positioning is consistent with a ‘recession’ outlook,” said Tchir, the firm’s head of macro strategy. “I think ‘recession’ is premature, but it’s something I’m seeing more people talk about and put on trades to reflect.”
SPY has dropped 18% so far this year, with the S&P 500 close to bear-market territory. The hottest inflation readings in four decades has TLT lower by more than 20% in 2022, though a bid has returned to bonds over the past week amid the market turmoil.
More than $32 billion has been pulled from SPY alone this year, putting the world’s largest ETF on track for the worst year of outflows ever. On the other side of the trade, more than $49 billion has flooded into fixed-income funds even though roughly 96% of bond ETFs have posted year-to-date losses.
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Kashkari : Fed needs to tank the stock market as a policy tool, to reduce the 'wealth effect'. Wrecking the public's 'balance sheets' will reduce demand and help fight inflation. This was the same basic message that Dudley gave in early April (link below) -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=168481919
>>> Strong household finances may mean Fed must do more: Kashkari
Reuters
May 19, 2022
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-household-finances-may-mean-214955892.html
(Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Thursday suggested that because household finances are in some cases in better shape than before the pandemic, the Fed may end up needing to raise rates further to bring inflation under control.
"Are these stronger balance sheets leading people to spend more, or be more confident, to just change their behavior, their spending patterns, and is that more sustainable - in which case maybe the Fed has to be even more aggressive," Kashkari told the Urban Institute.
That could mean difficult tradeoffs for the Federal Reserve, which is already raising rates faster than it has in decades to cool inflation running at a 40-year high.
Fed policymakers expect to get the target range for short-term interest rates, now at 0.75%-1%, a full percentage point higher by July, with more though potentially smaller rate hikes to follow.
The "plausible" hope, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week, is that heavier borrowing costs will drag down demand for labor enough to slow wage gains that might otherwise fuel inflation, but not so much that businesses resort to mass layoffs that could trigger a recession.
Kashkari said that because so much is beyond the Fed's control - supply chains, for instance, which in their currently tangled state are pushing upward in prices in ways that are only getting worse with China's COVID-19 lockdowns and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"We know we have to get inflation down; we are doing everything we can to achieve a 'soft landing,' but I'll be honest with you: I don't know the odds of us pulling that off," Kashkari said.
A rout in equities including an 18% drop in the S&P 500 Index since its Jan. 3 record close may help the Fed out, by reducing spending and therefore demand.
"The wealth effect is a real thing...those who have stocks have higher 401Ks, they feel more confident, they go out and spend more, when those things come down, it may change their behavior," Kashkari said. Though the Fed does not target stock prices, "we do pay attention to that feedback."
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>>> Broader stock market is looking ominous, and the S+P 500 could fall through key support soon. It tested the key 20% bear market level (~3855) last Thursday and bounced, but I figure this time that support will likely fail. If so then next support should be ~ 3600, based on the chart.
Still early, but I'm working on a strategy to gradually re-enter the stock market over the next 6 months or so, using a daily/weekly incremental cost average approach. Small amounts each week spread out over time. Starting to see some nice bargains out there, but still early. With a recession, I figure we may see the S+P 500 at 3400 or lower. At 3400 the total drop from the Jan high (~ 4800) would be only 29%, so the bottom could be lower, but 3400 may be close enough. Time will tell..
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>>> When is it safe to start buying stocks again? We’re not there yet, but these are the six signs to look for
MarketWatch
May 11, 2022
By Michael Brush
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-is-it-safe-to-start-buying-stocks-again-were-not-there-yet-but-these-are-the-six-signs-to-look-for-11652297223?siteid=yhoof2
Extreme negativity is only one indicator. Six market professionals explain what they track.
Big stock market drawdowns like the current one often end with a selling frenzy, called capitulation.
So, you’ll want know how to spot capitulation — a sign that it’s safer to start buying. To find out, I recently checked with several of my favorite market strategists and technicians. They offer the following indicators.
In fairness to them, they all look for a combination of confirming signals.
“It’s a basket of things, but when they start to pile up, it gives me more confidence,” says Larry McDonald of the Bear Traps Report. In the interest of brevity, however, I cite only one or two signals each.
Look for peak negativity among investors
Verdict: We are not there yet.
While several investor sentiment opinion polls suggest extreme negativity, you don’t see the same signal when you look at what they are actually doing with their money, says Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief of investment strategy.
Since the start of 2021, investors put $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange traded funds. So far, they’ve only taken out around $35 billion.
“That is not capitulation,” says Hartnett.
For that, he’d like to see $300 billion in withdrawals, particularly if it happened fast. Likewise, stock allocations are at 63% among portfolios in Bank of America’s private client network. For capitulation, we’d need to see that drop to the mid-50% range. “This just isn’t it,” he says.
Look for a peak fear index
Verdict: Not there yet.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +0.09% tracks investor fear, based on positioning in the options market. Higher means more fear. The VIX recently touched 35, but that’s not high enough to signal capitulation, says Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments. He’d like to see moves closer to 40. He also wants to see more stocks hitting the 52-week low list, and more stocks trading below their moving averages.
“We have evidence of some capitulation, but probably not enough to call it a significant bottom,” says Doll.
Look for a spike in the put/call ratio
Verdict: Not there yet.
Investors buy put options when they’re bearish. They buy calls on a bet that stocks will rise. So, the overall put/call ratio tells you how scared investors are. Higher means more fear. Leuthold Group chief investment officer Doug Ramsey calls this his “desert island sentiment indicator.”
To smooth out volatility, he tracks a three-day average. Since 2014, capitulation bottoms happened when this ratio moved to 0.85 or higher, as you can see in the chart below from Ramsey. It was recently at around 0.7. So, it’s not there yet.
“A heck of a lot of damage has been done. Investors are scared, but not genuinely panicked,” says Ramsey. “I don’t think we are close to a final low.”
Look for a spike in the number of stocks getting trashed
Verdict: The low is in — tradable bounce ahead.
To identify capitulations, McDonald at the Bear Traps Report tracks how many stocks are down a lot. For what he calls the “classic pukes,” he looks for a sharp contraction in the number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) above their 200-day moving averages. When this falls into the 20% range, this suggests capitulation. It was recently at 28%. That’s close enough considering the following confirming indicators.
McDonald cites the elevated ratio of decliners to advancing issues on NYSE (seven to one), one of the highest levels in the past five years. And the large number of stocks recently hitting new lows on Nasdaq. That was 1,261 on May 9, also near the high for the past five years.
The upshot: “There’s a 95% chance we have seen capitulation for a tradeable bounce,” concludes McDonald. It could create a 20%-30% upside move.
But this will merely be a rally in a sustained bear market that will carry on for a year or two.
He cites two reasons. First, most investors are down a lot, and they just want their money back.
“The average investor is so torched right now,” says McDonald. “They will sell strength.”
Next, the Federal Reserve is going to “break something” with its aggressive rate hikes. Likely candidate: Something in the commercial real estate market.
“You have skyscrapers in all the big cities empty, and loans are starting to come due,” says McDonald. “There could be big default cycle.”
Look for a high-volume blow-off
Verdict: Not there yet.
One good sign of capitulation is a “selling climax” marked by a sharp move down on big volume, says Martin Pring, publisher of the InterMarket Review investment letter and author of “Investment Psychology Explained,” one of my favorite market books. Often this can happen with a big whoosh down in the morning and a recovery, followed by relative calm. So far, we have not seen a high-volume selling climax.
Look for a big decline in margin debt
Verdict: Not there yet.
Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader likes to see a big reduction in brokerage account margin debt as a sign of capitulation. How big? He looks for a 10% drop year over year. The current decline is just 3% to $799 billion.
Goepfert has at least 12 capitulation indicators, and only three suggest we are there. They are: The initial public offering drought; several consecutive weeks of $10 billion equity fund outflows; and extreme lows in investor sentiment surveys.
Among other signs, he’d still like to see at least 40% of NYSE stocks at 52-week lows (we are near 30%); fewer than 20% of S&P 500 SPX, +0.10% stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages (currently 31%); and a spike in correlation among stocks in the S&P 500.
When investors hate everything, it’s a sure sign they probably can’t get much more bearish.
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Looks like silver just broke support. Next support should be 20, and then 18 (2019 highs).
While gold and silver have a history of falling during big stock market drops (2008/09, 2020), there may be some other factors at work in the current drop -
- Gold - Since Russia has now pegged the ruble to gold (domestically), it would be in the US/West interests to see gold lower in order to weaken Russia.
- Silver - The silver price generally follows gold, but another factor is silver's key role in solar panels, so there is an incentive for globalists to want lower silver prices.
- Inflation - The Fed is struggling to contain high inflation, and high gold/silver prices work against that goal.
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Looks like a test of the 20% bear market area (3840) should be next for the S+P 500. The Nasdaq is now down almost 30%, which is what it was down at the bottom of the Mar 2020 Covid crash. The Russell 2000 is also down approx 30%.
Current summary -
S+P 500 (SPX) --------- down 18% ---- (RSI - 32)
Dow 30 (DJIA) ---------- down 14% ---- (RSI - 34)
Nasdaq (COMPX) ----- down 30% ---- (RSI - 31)
Russell 2000 (IWM) --- down 30% ---- (RSI - 29)
Volatility Index ($VIX) --------- 33 ------ (RSI - 58)
Death Cross - Mar 14, 2022
__________________________________________
S+P 500 Support Levels - (approx)
*****************************
200 MA --------------------------------- 4493
50 MA ----------------------------------- 4383
Feb-Mar closing lows --------------- 4150
Feb-Mar intraday low --------------- 4120
Round Number support ------------ 4000
Current level ------------------------- 3964
20% Bear Market level ------------- 3840
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement --- 3800
_______________________________
Sept 2020 high ----------------------- 3600
50% Fibonacci Retracement ----- 3500
Feb 2020 high ------------------------ 3400
Sept-Oct 2020 lows ----------------- 3200
61.8% Fibonacci Retracement --- 3200
__________________________________________
>>> Cash Is the Only Winner in a Market Gripped by Stagflation Fear
‘We’re holding our cash with both hands:’ BlackRock’s Rieder
Investors are pouring cash into ETFs tracking Treasury bills
Bloomberg
ByDenitsa Tsekova and Cecile Gutscher
May 9, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/cash-is-the-only-winner-in-a-market-gripped-by-stagflation-fear?srnd=premium
Investors are eschewing almost everything except cash in this selloff.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has trumped all other assets this month, notching a 0.6% advance at a time when stocks and bonds are tumbling. Investors have poured cash into an exchange-traded fund tracking Treasury bills for five weeks, clocking up the biggest inflows since 2020.
It all shows that investors are focused on one thing right now: capital preservation. Slowing economic growth, persistent inflation and more Covid lockdowns in China have combined to make a toxic investing landscape. Even commodities, a favorite inflation play, succumbed to the global selloff on Monday.
“Any time you see this type of market volatility, investors flock to the safety of cash, and you’re absolutely seeing that dynamic now,” said Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors.
“Instead of a shift out of stocks and into a mix of bonds and cash, the moves into cash are being funded by the sales of both stocks and bonds. That’s resulted in a huge spike in the demand for cash,” he added.
No Escape
With so many assets underwater, investor grab cash to limit losses
It’s a theme being repeated in the halls of the biggest investment houses. As BlackRock Inc.’s Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder put it last week, “we’re holding our cash with both hands.” His firm has been adding more quality trades, reducing junk bonds in favor of investment-grade credit and top-rated asset-backed securities.
Treasury bills enjoy biggest five-week inflow in pandemic era
Paul Tudor Jones, CEO and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corp, has said he’s not sure if this will be a time where you are actually trying to make money.
“You can’t think of a worse environment than where we are right now for financial assets,” he told CNBC this month. “Clearly you don’t want to own bonds and stocks.”
Paul Tudor Jones Tells CNBC Capital Preservation Most Important
While stock and bond markets have been sliding all year, the moves have become especially sharp since the Federal Reserve’s 50-basis point rate rise last week. The hike stoked fear that the U.S. economy is on the brink of falling into stagflation -- a mix of rising costs, falling employment and slow growth.
Investors flocked to the $17 billion SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (ticker BIL) adding $3.3 billion since the start of April, according to data complied by Bloomberg. The $18 billion iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) has seen a $2.2 billion cash injection in the past seven weeks.
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Looks like the place to be right now is on the sidelines, ie cash and T-Bills. Everything else risks being sucked into the vortex of the bear market.
For the S+P 500 the current level to watch is 4000, and below that is the key 20% bear market level of 3840.
When the S+P 500 has dropped 20% (currently 16%), Jim Rickards says that level will usually alter the Fed's decision making process. But this time, who knows, since inflation is running so hot. The Fed is severely boxed in and have little choice but to keep tightening and push the economy into recession. So it could be a prolonged bear market.
Fwiw, I'll probably just sit on the sidelines in cash and not get too clever with it. Rather than trying to profit from the bear (going short, trying to hedge in sectors like energy, commodities, etc), I figure not losing money will be a victory, and then in the aftermath one can go bargain hunting.
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Fwiw, I jumped in today around 30 mins before Powell's remarks, with fingers crossed. The chart was just too tempting. But it's a small position, and the stock allocation is only 2%, up from zero %. But should yield some beer money at least. Also, nice to see the metals finally have an up day. Silver especially has been a dog, though I did add a little during the recent selloff.
Powell's comments were less hawkish than many feared, and he basically ruled out any 3/4 point increases. Sounds like there should be 1/2 point hikes at each of the next Fed meetings (June and July), so not as dire as it could be. Reportedly he also said their initial goal for now is to see the inflation rate stop rising, rather than actually dropping, and this was interpreted as somewhat less hawkish.
So looks like we get a nice oversold rally. I figure the S+P 500 should get up to test the 50 MA (4374) anyway, and above that is the 200 MA (4491). The DJIA is already testing its 50 MA today. I'll probably take profits in 1/2 of my S+P 500 position at the 50 MA.
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>>> Fed Traders Seek an Answer to the 75-Basis-Point Question
The Fed hasn’t hiked by that much in one meeting since 1994
All eyes will be on how Powell performs at press conference
Bloomberg
By Michael Mackenzie and Liz McCormick
May 3, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-03/fed-traders-are-seeking-an-answer-to-the-75-basis-point-question?srnd=premium
A lot is riding on how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell parries a question he’ll surely be asked after Wednesday’s monetary policy decision: is a 75-basis-point rate hike in the cards at some stage?
The U.S. central bank is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this meeting, something it hasn’t done since May 2000. And half-point moves are fully priced in by swaps traders for each of the following three meetings -- June, July and September -- the most aggressive trajectory in three decades. But there might still be room for even more hawkishness, depending on how Powell navigates his upcoming press conference.
Traders will be watching closely to see if the Fed boss green-lights -- or at the very least opts not to red-light -- the idea of a three-quarter point hike, something the central bank hasn’t implemented since the annus horribilis for Treasuries that was 1994. Either way, the shifts in the rates market -- which at one point last week had a 75-basis point move for June close to being a coin toss -- could be swift and merciless.
“Powell will fall back to ‘we are not on pre-set rate hikes’ or something along those lines -- ‘we go in with an open mind each meeting and will talk it over and we’ll see where we go from there,’” said Tony Farren, managing director at Mischler Financial Group. “The market would take that as hawkish. For his comments to seem dovish, he’d have to shut down the talk of 75 basis points. And while I don’t think he’ll endorse it, I don’t think he’ll shut it down.”
Increasingly hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and signs that inflation may remain elevated for much of the year have already driven significant changes, with traders wagering that the fed funds rate will end this year more than 2.5 percentage points above its current level.
An ambivalent tone from the chairman on Wednesday could push Treasury yields up across the curve, Farren said.
Powell is likely to stick to his plan of being data dependent and non-committal about future rate increases, Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday, calling the current market pricing for a 75 basis-point hike in June “notable odds.”
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard has already openly articulated a case for a potential 75 basis-point hike this year. Other senior Fed officials have said that a 50 basis-point hike is more appropriate alongside plans to allow the central bank’s balance sheet to start contracting by as much as $95 billion a month.
“I think a 75-basis-point hike is a bridge too far for this committee which is still made up by a bunch of doves,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “And the 50 basis points of hikes for four meetings in a row is hawkish enough, in the eyes of the market” as well.
So far this week, traders have trimmed the odds of a precipitous June hike, with swap contracts for June back at 109 basis points more than the current rate from a recent peak of 111 basis points. That suggests around a one-in-three chance a 75 basis-point hike next month following the 50-basis-point that is widely tipped to be implemented this Wednesday instead of just a half-point bump for June.
The market’s preemptive pricing of a possibly more aggressive rate cycle reflects how the Fed has been forced to up its hawkish mantra all year as inflation expectations have marched higher, particularly after the commodity-price surge sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“If anything can be said about Powell’s Fed during the last six months it is that there is a clear bias to surprise on the hawkish side,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
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Well, there's the bounce, so next question is how long does it last? The obvious upside target on the chart is the 50 MA, which for the S+P 500 is 4374. Prior to that would be the 4300 level, which was the high last Thurs. So those should be the initial targets to watch.
Looking at the bigger picture, Rickards had some interesting comments on the China lockdown situation. He pointed out that President Xi is due to get his 'President for life' designation in November, and a key part of his motivation for the ultra-strict lockdown policy is to avoid an out of control health crisis in China that could derail his ascension to 'President for life'.
But the strict lockdowns are jeopardizing the Chinese export economy, so Xi is walking a fine line, and the big loser is the global economy, which relies so much on Chinese exports. The global battle to contain inflation is also made a lot harder by the Chinese lockdowns.
Anyway, I may just sit this market out, and not try trade these short term rallies. Probably not worth the risk and aggravation, especially when cash and T-Bills are finally paying a decent return. Then re-evaluate when the S+P 500 gets down to the 20% bear market level (3840), which seems likely at some point.
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Closed back above support, so for now key support has held. It also left a bullish hammer type candlestick, which is often seen at bottoms.
So the current setup is for a bounce, though how long/how far the bounce goes we'll have to see. Fwiw, I'll probably watch from the sidelines, though it might be worth a trade depending on what happens tomorrow and Wed. I'm still thinking that a test of 3850 happens at some point in the May/June timeframe, so a trade would have to be in and out within a few days/week, or couple weeks.
How the market responds may depend on Powell's forward guidance on Wed. Very little doubt that the June meeting will also be for 1/2 point, but if Powell sounds like a hawkish grizzly bear then the stock market probably breaks support and heads to 4000 and 3840 by the June meeting. If he sounds hawkish but flexible, then a milder response. Per Dudley, the Fed may want the stock market significantly lower to help them quash inflation, so their preferred target may be closer to the 20% bear level (3840). Just a guess though.
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Still early, but looks like defensive sectors like consumer staples are starting to throw in the towel. Procter & Gamble and Pepsico are finally dropping, along with the broader consumer staples sector (FSTA). Other sectors like Utilities and REITS are also giving it up, so a bearish sign for the stock market.
Still might get a relief rally after the Fed meeting, but as support levels break over time, Wall St shorting algos could kick in.
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The S+P 500 just fell through support. There's a chance it might rally back by the close, but otherwise support will be officially broken. The Nasdaq had already broken support last week, and the Russell broke support today. Only the DJIA is still above support.
So, barring a rally at the close, the next support to watch for the S+P 500 will be the 4000 level. 4000 doesn't have any real significance chart-wise, other than being a round number 'psychological' level. Below that will be the 20% bear market area (3840), which also corresponds roughly to the 38% Fibonacci retracement level.
The big question is what happens after the Fed meeting on Wednesday? There will be a 6 week respite before the next Fed meeting in mid-June, so will the market stage a relief rally, continue lower, or ? I'm figuring the S+P 500 tests the 20% bear market level at some point, either between now and the June Fed meeting, or following the June meeting, but time will tell..
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Next week should be interesting. The S+P 500 is the big question. While things are looking bad, it still hasn't dropped below its Feb 24 intraday low. All of Wall St will be watching for that next week. Once clearly broken then next stop should be 4000, and below that is the 20% bear market level of 3840. I'm thinking it will likely test that key 3840 support area as the June 14/15 Fed meeting approaches. Lots of variables though.
Looking at the other main indices, the Nasdaq has already broken down below its Feb/Mar lows, the DJIA is still holding well above that level, and the Russell is currently right at its Feb/Mar support. But the S+P 500 is the bellwether to watch.
Presumably the Fed will try to avoid a full blown bear market, since that will greatly complicate their job with inflation. So 3840 looks like the key level to watch in the period ahead.
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Yikes, not looking good for stocks. The S+P 500 closed right at/near key support (Feb/Mar lows), so looks like the 'moment of truth' is nearly upon us, from a TA perspective anyway. Closing at the low of the day is also bearish for tomorrow's open.
4115 (approx) is the area to watch now, which was the intraday low on Feb 24. Break that decisively and next stop could be 4000.
Alternately, the market might zig/zag around the Feb/Mar support area for a while, rally, fade, etc, until next week's Fed meeting. But investor's appetite for 'buy the dip' has likely waned, and since the Fed actually wants the stock market lower (per Dudley), there probably won't be help arriving from the PPT cavalry anytime soon.
That said, it's doubtful the Fed wants stocks down more than 20% and into an official bear market, which would really screw up their tightening plans. So over the next period of weeks/several months, that 20% level seems like the obvious target to call a likely 'bottom'. For the S+P 500 that would be approx 3840. Still early though, and a lot can happen.
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Predictions and scenarios -
- Between now and the Fed meeting (May 3, 4), the S+P 500 drops to test the Feb/Mar lows (4150), and a test of 4000 is possible.
- Fed raises by 1/2 point at the May 3, 4 meeting
- Assuming no softening in Powell's hawkish verbiage, as the next Fed meeting approaches (June 14, 15) the S+P 500 drops to test the key 3840 area (20% correction / bear market level).
- Fed raises by another 1/2 point at the June 14, 15 meeting, but Powell softens his forward guidance, indicating a moderation in future rate hikes. The S+P 500 rallies and stays above the dreaded correction/bear market level of 3840.
- July 26, 27 Fed meeting - assuming the stock market has stabilized, the Fed raises by only 1/4 point, or alternately, the Fed pauses and has no rate hike in July. Next Fed meeting is Sept 20, 21.
- Meanwhile, by late summer the inflation numbers are starting to showing signs of weakening, and the super tight labor market is becoming less tight, and also by mid-late summer the Ukraine war has reached a resolution.
So.. the stock market manages to stay above 3840, and out of bear market territory. The Fed still wants to tighten in the Fall, but uses 1/4 point increments, combined with conciliatory Powell guidance, and he manages to keep the stock market out of a bear market.
So 3840 on the S+P 500 might turn out to be a decent re-entry point for investors. But still lots of unknowns and landmines, so will see how things unfold.
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The S+P 500 chart has formed a bearish Head + Shoulders over the past six months, and looks like a re-test of the Feb/Mar lows (4150 area) is fast approaching.
A 20% correction from the all time high ~ 4800 (Jan 3) would put the S+P 500 at ~ 3840. Looking at some targets to watch -
4150 (~ Feb/Mar lows)
4000
3840 (20% correction from the all time high Jan 3)
3800 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
3500 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
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US rare earths producer MP Materials (MP) broke out today on nice volume. It had formed a bullish ascending triangle (and Cup + Handle) over the past 1.5 years. US produced rare earth metals has seemed like a no-brainer for years, and it looks like the market is finally waking up.
This article (below) was from Monday, and the stock is now at 56, so now is officially a breakout. TA-wise, the upside target with an ascending triangle breakout is typically the length of the vertical side of the triangle, so figure approx 30 points from the breakout, so around 80. TA aside, this seems like a logical place to be investment-wise -
MP Materials - >>> Rare Earth Miner Breaks Out, But Faces Key Challenge
Investor's Business Daily
GILLIAN RICH
03/21/2022
https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-of-the-day/mp-stock-near-buy-point-rare-earth-elements-green-energy/?src=A00220
MP Materials
IBD Stock Analysis
Clears handle buy point at 47.40 in rising trade.
Still faces long-term resistance in the 51 - 53 range.
MP Materials (MP) is the IBD Stock of the Day. The rare earth minerals miner is passing a buy point, but still faces a key challenge. MP stock rallied on Monday.
Rare earth elements might sound like something out of a video game quest, but these minerals are a key in the production of smartphones, computers and other electric devices. The group of 17 elements is also crucial for the switch to green energy and is needed in the production of wind turbines and electric vehicles.
China dominates the market in rare earth elements, producing over 60% of the world's supply in 2021, according to S&P Platts, citing U.S. Geological Survey data.
There are major national security concerns with the majority of global rare earth elements coming out of China, and mining companies are looking for alternate sources.
Russia holds the world's fourth largest rare earths reserves. It is the seventh-largest producer, and a big supplier for Europe. The conflict in Ukraine could weigh on Russia's exports if more sanctions are imposed. That could further add another hurdle for Europe in its green energy goals.
While Europe has no rare earths production, the U.S. accounts for 15% of global output. MP Materials owns and operates Mountain Pass in California, the only integrated rare earth mining and processing site in North America, according to the company.
However, the country isn't completely free from China's rare earth dominance. Its mixed rare earth concentrate requires further processing. and for that, MP's mined earths are sent to China. But MP Materials plans to restart integrated processing facilities at the Mountain Pass site, following this year's projected completion of its facility optimization project.
MP Stock
Shares rose 4.4% to 49.10 on the stock market today. MP stock is breaking out of a cup-with-handle base with a buy point of 47.40. Volume on the breakout settled to 30%, just below the 40% minimum you would like to see to confirm a breakout.
The relative strength line, which tracks performance vs. the S&P 500 index, is close to a 12-year high. That can be a bullish sign, corroborating a breakout.
But MP stock still remains below long-term resistance in the 51-to-53 price range. Pushing past 53 and cracking that resistance would clear a major hurdle for the stock.
MP Materials reported fourth-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates in February. MP stock went public in November 2020 through a special purpose acquisition company, Fortress Value.
MP has a perfect 99 Composite Rating. But it has a weaker EPS Rating of 70. The Composite Rating compiles scores on key fundamental and technical metrics: earnings and sales growth, profit margins, return on equity, and relative price performance. Investors should generally focus on stocks with a Composite Rating of 90 or higher.
MP is the leading stock in IBD's Mining-Metal Ores group.
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GLD - the world's widest Cup + Handle formation, taking over 10 years to form.
Advance Decline Line -
Here's an interesting technical indicator that is fairly widely used - the Advance-Decline Line. I think Rinear has mentioned using it, and numerous analysts mention it periodically. It's somewhat tricky to set up on a TA chart (use $NYAD and then have to use 'cummulative' rather than candlesticks). The indicator doesn't give a danger signal very often, but when it does it appears to have excellent predictive value. The danger signal comes when the Advance Decline Line flattens or falls, but the market continues to climb higher (market breadth narrows).
Looking back, this divergence occurred during the last two weeks of Aug 2020, and was followed by a sharp market decline in Sept. This year there has been a prolonged ongoing divergence since mid-June, which steepened since mid-Nov. After Dec 20th the divergence has lessened, but it's still present. Anyway, could be a sign of a market pullback coming soon.
Some background info (AD Line info starts ~ 10:30) -
>>> Market timer McClellan sees sharp stock-market selloff 'beginning imminently'
MarketWatch
Dec. 30, 2021
By Tomi Kilgore
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timer-mcclellan-sees-sharp-stock-market-selloff-beginning-imminently-2021-12-30?siteid=yhoof2
Market timer Tom McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report, warned of a "sharp drop" in the stock market "beginning imminently" and continuing for a couple of weeks into January.
Among reasons for his view, chart signals suggest the recent rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.03% and S&P 500 SPX, +0.03% to record highs appears to reflect a "blowoff exhaustion"; negative divergence in the advance-decline line, which showed most stocks were declining while the indexes rose; and the fact that the annual seasonal pattern shows a tendency for the Dow to fall during the first two to three weeks of January, McClellan said in a newsletter sent to clients overnight.
McClellan said he's bearish short-, intermediate- and long-term trading styles. The Dow was up 27 points, or 0.1%, in afternoon trading Thursday and on track for a seventh straight gain and second straight record close. Meanwhile, only two of the Dow's 30 components -- UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, +0.15% and Coca-Cola Co. KO, -0.07% -- have reached 52-week highs in intraday trading on Thursday, and only eight components have reached 52-week highs this month. For the S&P 500 SPX, +0.03%, which was up 0.1% and in record territory, 12% of its components have reached 52-week highs on Thursday, and 27% have reached 52-week highs this month.
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SP500 -Top Timeline narrowed.
Mid-February to Mid-March a TOP should be seen. Odds of it being THE TOP is 50/50 today. If not final move another year could push this sucker to early 2023.
Dollar is the ONLY segment that has a steady firm handle on trend line. When time comes there should be a big spike between 100 and 104 yet again.
Interesting to see the FED hold back on rate hikes and only push out a poultry quarter percent each time. the next 2 months of data is going to be frighteningly clear that covid once again caused yet another spike in inflation. Not sure if the street already factored in covid but i suspect it will NOT cause major damage till end of that 2 month period. Perhaps data reflecting longer more sustained inflation will be seen and panic will result. Don't know what or when that happens but is the likely scenario for a crash.
Hard to use insider moves to determine price action. ONLY when there is a fireside sale by most of the Financial personnel and ONLY if the stock didn't have an unusual spike move up recently.
I tried decades ago to correlate this method to making money.
As for what to buy now that is easy, follow the favorite cult popularity. SPAC, CRYPTO are two. Final throws of huge long term bull market. Can last years yet or months.
INSANE valuations, projections, while ignoring glaring possible derailments. heck the followers of TRUMP CULT even dismissed a coup attempt one year ago. The abnormal is now normal. Buffett's own 7 indicators are at new highs in over valuation or nearing record.
40 year deflation trend assumed to continue forever. FED wiped out the word Transitory but the street did not!
History will not be kind to our OBTUSE posture.
>>> Notable Service Corp Intl Insider Makes $610K Sale
Benzinga Insights
November 19, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/notable-corp-intl-insider-makes-164759101.html
Eric D Tanzberger, CFO at Service Corp Intl (NYSE:SCI), made a large insider sell on November 16, according to a new SEC filing.
What Happened: A Form 4 filing from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday showed that Tanzberger sold 9,000 shares of Service Corp Intl at a price of $68.00. The total transaction amounted to $612,000.
Tanzberger still owns a total of 68,934 shares of Service Corp Intl worth, $4,712,328.00.
Service Corp Intl shares are trading up 0.65% at $68.36 at the time of this writing on Friday morning.
The Importance of Insider Transactions
Insider transactions shouldn't be used primarily to make an investing decision, however an insider transaction can be an important factor in the investing decision.
In legal terms, an "insider" refers to any shareholder who owns at least 10% of a company. This can include executives in the c-suite and large hedge funds. These insiders are required to let the public know of their transactions via a Form 4 filing, which must be filed within two business days of the transaction.
When a company insider makes a new purchase, that is an indication that they expect the stock to rise.
Insider sells, on the other hand, can be made for a variety of reasons, and may not necessarily mean that the seller thinks the stock will go down.
Transaction Codes To Focus On
Investors prefer focusing on transactions that take place in the open market, indicated in Table I of the Form 4 filing. A P in Box 3 indicates a purchase, while S indicates a sale. Transaction code C indicates the conversion of an option, and transaction code A indicates the insider may have been forced to sell shares in order to receive compensation that had been promised upon being hired by the company.
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>>> 4 big risks that could trip up the stock market soon: Goldman
Yahoo Finance
by Brian Sozzi
October 4, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-big-risks-that-could-trip-up-the-stock-market-soon-goldman-160805923.html
Investors will have a lot to contend with come the start of third quarter earnings season this month, most of which could prove far from flattering to one's portfolio.
That's the latest temperature check on markets from the team over at Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin warned on Monday of four risks to investors from upcoming corporate earnings reports:
(1) Supply chain bottlenecks
(2) Climbing oil prices
(3) Inflationary labor costs
(4) Slowing China economic growth
Kostin reserves his most worrisome comments on all things supply chain.
The strategist found that of the 26 S&P 500 companies that have reported results since the start of September, 18 mentioned supply chain challenges on their earnings calls. Several of those names that have let down investors in recent weeks due to supply chain bottlenecks include Nike and Bed Bath & Beyond.
Sherwin-Williams, on the other hand, pre-announced disappointing third quarter results and slashed its full-year outlook.
"A key risk is that supply chain normalization takes longer than expected and that unmet demand today is not fully recouped in later quarters," Kostin says.
The risks outlined by Kostin stand to make third quarter earnings season vastly different than the second quarter.
Analysts expects S&P 500 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year for the third quarter, down sharply from the second quarter growth rate of 88%. Net profit margins for the S&P 500 in the quarter are seen at 11.6%, below the 12.2% reached in the first half of 2021.
Adds Kostin, "Economic and earnings growth are decelerating and base comparables have become more challenging."
The market may be finally beginning to take warnings on corporate fundamentals from the likes of Kostin more seriously.
Monday saw stocks hit with a fresh dose of heavy selling, led by further blood-letting in the high growth Nasdaq Composite. All of the Dow components were in the red by midday, save for relative safe-havens Verizon, Merck and IBM.
Not aiding sentiment Monday are concerns about the pace of job growth last month, which will be reported on Friday.
"I think there would be a negative market reaction [if the jobs report misses estimates], to be honest with you. We were above consensus last month and were surprised to the downside. I think if you were to get another weak print, people would start to wonder about the cumulative effects of the COVID variants on economic growth. We would probably get people questioning whether the Fed is going to be able to taper on their schedule if we were to get another weak print on payroll. It's a very important report," said UBS head of equity derivatives research Stuart Kaiser on Yahoo Finance Live.
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AXSM looks set up for a bounce -
Axsome's PDUFA date with FDA is Aug 22 -
Fwiw, I went long with a modest position (50 shares). The odds look good for approval (Aug 22), and AXSM has a packed late stage pipeline, so stock seems cheap -
>>> 3 “Strong Buy” Stocks Trading at Steep Discounts
TipRanks
August 2, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-strong-buy-stocks-trading-142616588.html
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>>> Opinion: Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record
MarketWatch
July 15, 2021
By Mark Hulbert
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2
Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline
Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.
To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firm Market Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)
I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”
In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&P 500 SPX, -0.22% and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index RUT, 0.11%. (Martin anticipated that decline as well; see my Oct. 4, 2018, column.)
Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.
The source of the market’s ill-health
Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100 NDX, -0.23% and the S&P 100 OEX, -0.24% indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.
This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.
Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”
Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.
Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.
To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.
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>>> ‘A Narrative of Fear’: Plunging Stocks Finally Heed Bond Signal
Bloomberg
By Lu Wang and Claire Ballentine
July 8, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/-a-narrative-of-fear-plunging-stocks-finally-heed-bond-signal?srnd=premium
S&P 500 falls from record high amid worries over growth, virus
Sub-1.25% rate would spark fear ‘something is wrong or broken’
Growth is slowing while stock valuations expand and breadth narrows. Throw in a surprising drop in Treasury yields and the result is volatility.
The S&P 500 Index fell as much as 1.6% on Thursday, the most since May, as all major industries slipped. Commodity and financial shares led the retreat, the latest sign that the once-hot reflation trade is sputtering, with the delta variant of coronavirus quickly spreading and talk about monetary stimulus heating up in China.
Just last week, the S&P 500 rose to record for its seventh straight session, a feat not seen since 1997. For eight months, the benchmark has gone without a peak-to-trough decline of 5%, the longest stretch since 2018.
S&P 500 has gone without a 5% pullback for eight months
“When the market is as expensive as it is today, it doesn’t necessarily need a specific catalyst to change investor psychology,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. “The Treasury market sniffed out these concerns earlier this week and now the stock market.”
A wave of selling landed right at the open. The so-called Tick index, which compares stocks’ moves second-by-second, showed New York Stock Exchange companies trading on downticks exceeded those on upticks by 2,006 at one point. That’s the second-highest in the past year and a reading that before 2020 was seen only once since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1989.
Here is a compilation of investor and trader views on what’s behind Thursday’s pullback in the equity market.
Adrian Miller, chief market strategist at Concise Capital Management LP:
“In our view, the bond market is the big brother of the equity market. And when the big brother does something the little brother follows, no questions asked.”
“If we are to believe economic momentum can only cool from the current pace, investors need to determine how much should you pay for an economy returning to a normal glide path. And, instead of paying 22x 2021 SPX earnings or 20x 2022 earnings, perhaps the right value is 18x.”
Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC’s deputy chief investment officer:
“There’s a growing narrative of fear out there as well. I think some investors are wondering whether the bond market is signaling slower growth, which is feeding the idea that the peak in growth/inflation numbers is going to signal the shift from positive surprises to negative surprises.”
Josh Wein, portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds:
“The S&P is up 16% this year so certainly a giveback on the equities side is to be expected but on the bond side the narrative of inflation driven by labor shortages or product shortages or both -- subdued economic growth globally may be ratcheting down expectations and that is deflationary. I look at the ten-year and I think growth here will maybe be a little bit less than what we thought and also that the idea that we’re going to hit an inflation wall with the ten-year being at 1.3%, something doesn’t jive there. I’m going to believe the bond market before I believe people saying there is going to be inflation.”
Chris Grisanti, chief equity strategist at MAI Capital Management:
“I’m still of the opinion this is a head fake and that we will see higher rates ahead, with the strong GDP growth and corporate earnings growth -- we’ve stimulated this economy so well and the path for Covid, even though we have these blips, is toward normalcy. I would take advantage of the things going on in the marketplace right now. Like the travel-related stocks, I think they will come back. This is maybe one of the last opportunities to get on that bandwagon if you missed it.”
Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo & Co.:
A sharp drop in yield “below 1.25% could cause equity portfolio managers to believe that something is wrong or broken. As a result, we see a growing possibility of a 5% sell-off in equities before earnings season.”
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>>> A Lot of ETF Trades Got in Front of a Big Drop in Stock Market
Bloomberg
By Sam Potter
July 8, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/a-lot-of-etf-trades-got-in-front-of-a-big-drop-in-stock-market?srnd=premium
Bearish bets picked up this week, including via leveraged fund
An investor pivot to safer assets saw billions on the move
Thursday’s potential stock swoon will come as no surprise to players in the $6.6 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund market, judging by their actions in the past few days.
Months of unbroken bullishness that saw record flows to cyclically-exposed funds is giving way to caution, with bearish bets picking up in the options market and cash diverting to safer assets.
With futures pointing to a red day on Wall Street, it all looks prescient.
Investors pulled $3.9 billion from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) on Wednesday. That was the biggest exit in two months from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, and came even as America’s benchmark gauge closed at yet another all-time high.
At the same time, $322 million -- the most since 2019 -- was pulled from the $9.4 billion iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF (IJS), compounding a rough few days for cheaper shares. Value products have now seen $560 million of withdrawals in July, after an unbroken series of monthly inflows since the first coronavirus vaccine breakthrough in November.
SPY, IJS face outflows with reflation trade in peril
“After a strong run for risk-taking in pro-cyclical ETFs for much of the year, investors have taken profits,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA. The concerns are that “global economic growth could prove weaker than originally expected,” he said.
As equity funds show a re-rotation to more growth-oriented bets, fixed-income ETFs hint at a similar reach for safety.
The largest Treasury product, the $16.6 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), has added almost $1.2 billion in the past six sessions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. More than half of that was last week -- ahead of the almost 15 basis-point plunge in the 10-year yield since Tuesday.
The most interesting telltale signs of a sentiment shift were in the options market. Open interest in bullish calls on SPY dropped to the lowest since 2019 in mid-June and never recovered, signaling a lack of confidence the S&P 500 Index would keep pushing to fresh records -- at least in the near term.
More dramatically, there was a sudden burst of activity in options for the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ETF (SPXU). The $542 million product is a leveraged bet against America’s benchmark, aiming to deliver triple the inverse performance of the gauge. It’s been sliding all year as the S&P 500 went from strength to strength.
Options volume for the ETF are usually light, but on Wednesday more than 50,000 calls expiring July 16 changed hands. While it’s impossible to say how the calls are being deployed, theoretically they will rise in value if the S&P 500 falls and the price of SPXU bucks its year-long losing streak.
Meanwhile, investors are shorting the $67.4 billion iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by the most this year. The percentage of shares in the small-cap fund on loan jumped to more than 11% earlier this week, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd.
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Amazon breaking out of a 12 month sideways consolidation. Had also formed a cup + handle over past 2 months.
Oversold bounce idea - >>> Calavo Growers, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results
Yahoo Finance
June 8, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/calavo-growers-inc-announces-second-200100098.html
SANTA PAULA, Calif., June 08, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Calavo Growers, Inc. (Nasdaq-GS: CVGW), a global avocado-industry leader and provider of value-added fresh food, today reported its financial results for the second quarter ended April 30, 2021.
Second Quarter Highlights
Total revenue of $276.8 million, at the high end of guidance and indicating a return to pre-pandemic results.
Fresh segment revenue decreased 5%, due primarily to 9% growth in avocado volume, offset by a 10% decrease in avocado prices and 31% lower tomato revenue. Renaissance Food Group (“RFG”) and Foods segments revenues increased 3% and 16% year-over-year, respectively.
Gross profit of $22.6 million, or 8.2% of revenue, compared to $22.1 million, or 7.9% of revenue, for the comparable period last year. The increase in gross profit margin percentage was attributable to volume growth in the Fresh segment.
Net income of $8.8 million, or $0.50 per diluted share, compared to net loss of $3.3 million, or ($0.19) per diluted share, for the comparable period last year. Adjusted net income was $7.7 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, compared to $7.0 million, or $0.40 per share last year.
Adjusted EBITDA of $15.0 million, which is a 9.5% increase compared to $13.7 million for the same period last year.
Adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP financial measures. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below.
Management Commentary
“We are indeed seeing positive signs as the economy reopens and we are pleased with our recovery, which is driving our long-term optimism. For the first half of 2021, we recorded the highest avocado volume in the last five years—reflecting growing consumer demand across all our end markets,” said James E. Gibson, CEO of Calavo Growers.
“As our various markets slowly re-emerge from the pandemic, we delivered strong returns this quarter. Even with 9.5% EBITDA growth, profitability was restrained as our company managed through a tight labor market, higher commodity costs and higher freight costs.
“Our Fresh segment reported gross profit in line with previous quarters due to the team’s skillful management in both sourcing and sales growth. Our RFG and Foods segments saw a return to year-over-year sales growth as a result of improved demand, particularly within the retail grocery channel. For comparison purposes, RFG sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2020 included $9.8 million attributable to RFG’s Midwest co-packer.
“We are also encouraged by the continued growth in our international business. Demand for guacamole, for example, continues to increase, and our near-term outlook remains favorable with a number of new customer opportunities.
“As the year progresses, we are focusing our energy on areas we can control and advancing our strategic goals. We continue to monitor inflation, the labor market and the various supply chains to get a better read on how the second half of the year will evolve. We continue to focus on our strategic initiatives designed to enhance our long-term growth prospects, capitalize on opportunities to increase operating leverage, further our sustainability initiatives, and realize synergies across our entire organization, with the goal of improving profitability, sustainability and shareholder value. To that end, we have created ‘Project Uno,’ which is a strategic review of the current and future challenges in our business. We will be teaming with an outside consultant for this enterprise-wide business and operational review. Through this project, we are evaluating opportunities to enhance revenue growth, streamline operations, drive efficiencies and make investments that strengthen our competitive position and improve margins over the long term. The project is in its early stages, and we expect to provide additional information and details later in the year,” noted Gibson.
Second Quarter 2021 Consolidated Financial Review
Total revenue for the second quarter 2021 was $276.8 million, which is comparable to $281.2 million for the second quarter 2020, which included one and one-half months of pre-pandemic impact. While avocado volumes were 9% higher than the prior-year period, total revenue was impacted by the lower average selling price of avocados in the Company’s Fresh segment, which resulted from increased supply from Mexico. Fresh segment sales decreased 5% and offset higher sales volumes in the RFG and Foods business segments.
Gross profit for the second quarter was $22.6 million, or 8.2% of revenue, compared to $22.1 million, or 7.9% of revenue, for the same period last year. The increase in gross profit margin percentage was attributable to improvements in the Fresh segment, partially offset by lower gross profit margin percentages in the RFG and Foods segments.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense for the second quarter totaled $13.7 million, or 4.9% of revenue, compared to $14.5 million, or 5.2% of revenue, for the same period last year. The year-over-year improvement in SG&A expense was primarily related to lower sales broker commissions and stock-based compensation.
Net income for the second quarter was $8.8 million, or $0.50 per diluted share. This compares with a net loss of $3.3 million, or $(0.19) per diluted share, for the same period last year. Included in these results were a $3.5 million non-cash, unrealized gain and a $10.3 million non-cash unrealized loss in the second quarter of fiscal year 2021 and 2020, respectively, related to the Company’s ownership interest in the Limoneira Company.
Adjusted net income was $7.7 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, for the second quarter, compared to adjusted net income of $7.0 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, for the same period last year.
Adjusted EBITDA was $15.0 million for the second quarter of 2021, compared to $13.7 million for the same period last year.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Cash and cash equivalents totaled $5.6 million as of April 30, 2021. Total liquidity at quarter end was approximately $144 million, including cash, investments, and borrowings available under a line of credit. This is an improvement of 30% compared to $111 million last year.
The Company ended the quarter with $49.3 million of total debt, which included $42.3 million of borrowings under its line of credit and $7.0 million of long-term obligations and finance leases.
Second Quarter Business Segment Performance
Fresh
Second quarter 2021 sales in Calavo’s Fresh business segment decreased 5% to $161.7 million from $170.9 million in the same period last year. Increased avocado supply from Mexico negatively impacted the average selling price, which was down 10% from the same period last year. Lower selling prices were offset by increased sales volume, which improved 9% from the year-ago period. Following staffing investments made earlier in the year, international revenue increased 46%. Fresh segment gross profit for the second quarter of 2021 was $15.0 million, or 9.3% of segment sales, compared to $14.4 million, or 8.4% of segment sales, for the same period last year. The increase in gross profit was primarily due to volume growth. The Company’s gross profit per carton for avocados was in line with last year and historical averages.
Renaissance Food Group (RFG)
RFG business segment sales in the second quarter 2021 were $96.3 million, up 3% from $93.5 million in the same period last year, reflecting improving demand as the country reopens from the pandemic, but offset by the closure of RFG’s Midwest co-packer, which occurred in April 2020. RFG sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2020 period included $9.8 million attributable to the co-packer. Segment gross profit declined to $2.3 million, or 2.4% of segment sales, from $2.7 million, or 2.9% of segment sales, for the same period last year. Gross margin was adversely impacted late in the quarter by market-wide factors such as higher labor costs, poor fruit quality and yield, and increased freight costs.
Foods
Sales in the Foods segment totaled $20.7 million for the second quarter 2021, 16% higher than $17.9 million in the same period last year due to improving conditions as foodservice began recovering from the pandemic. Following staffing investments made earlier in the year, international revenue increased 36%. Segment gross profit totaled $5.3 million, or 25.6% of sales, for the second quarter, compared to $4.9 million, or 27.6% of sales, for the same period last year. The increase in gross profit for the second quarter was primarily due to a decrease in avocado costs.
Outlook
The Company is providing the following expectations for the third fiscal quarter of 2021:
Revenue in a range of $280 million to $300 million; and
Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $11 million to $15 million.
“The Adjusted EBITDA forecast reflects near-term inflationary pressure on labor, raw materials and freight. We expect that by the end of the year many of these pressures will be mitigated as we are working on pricing initiatives with our business partners and accelerating development of internal operational efficiencies to alleviate these unprecedented inflationary issues,” concluded Gibson.
The Company is not able to provide a reconciliation of expected adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable expected GAAP measure due to the unknown effect, timing and potential significance of the effects of non-cash income and losses associated with unconsolidated entities, among others. These items have in the past, and may in the future, significantly affect GAAP results in a particular period.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This press release includes non-GAAP measures such as EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS, which are not prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or “GAAP.”
EBITDA is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Calavo Growers, Inc. excluding (1) interest income and expense, (2) income tax (benefit) provision, (3) depreciation and amortization and (4) stock-based compensation expense. Adjusted EBITDA is EBITDA with further adjustments for (1) non-cash net losses recognized from unconsolidated entities, (2) goodwill impairment, (3) write-off of long-lived assets, (4) acquisition-related costs, (5) restructuring and certain severance costs, (6) certain litigation and other related costs, and (7) one-time items. Adjusted EBITDA is a primary metric by which management evaluates the operating performance of the business, on which certain operating expenditures and internal budgets are based. The adjustments to calculate EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are items recognized and recorded under GAAP in particular periods but might be viewed as not necessarily coinciding with the underlying business operations for the periods in which they are so recognized and recorded.
Adjusted net income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Calavo Growers, Inc. excluding (1) non-cash net losses recognized from unconsolidated entities, (2) goodwill impairment, (3) write-off of long-lived assets, (4) acquisition-related costs, (5) restructuring and certain severance costs, (6) certain litigation and other related costs, and (7) one-time items. Adjusted net income and the related measure of adjusted diluted EPS exclude certain items that are recognized and recorded under GAAP in particular periods but might be viewed as not necessarily coinciding with the underlying business operations for the periods in which they are so recognized and recorded. We believe adjusted net income affords investors a different view of the overall financial performance of the Company than adjusted EBITDA and the GAAP measure of net income (loss) attributable to Calavo Growers, Inc. Additionally, the Company’s senior management is compensated in part on the basis of Adjusted Net Income.
Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the financial tables that accompany this release.
Items are considered one-time in nature if they are non-recurring, infrequent or unusual and have not occurred in the past two years or are not expected to recur in the next two years, in accordance with SEC rules. One-time items are identified in the notes to the reconciliations in the financial tables that accompany this release.
Non-GAAP information should be considered as supplemental in nature and not as a substitute for, or superior to, any measure of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. None of these metrics are presented as measures of liquidity. The way the Company measures EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other companies and may not be identical to corresponding measures used in Company agreements.
Conference Call and Webcast
Calavo will host a conference call, today at 5:00 pm ET/2:00 pm PT to discuss its financial results. The conference call may be accessed by dialing 877-407-3982 (Domestic) or 201-493-6780 (International) with conference ID: 13719525. A live audio webcast of the call will also be available on the Investor Relations section of Calavo’s website at http://ir.calavo.com and will be archived for replay.
About Calavo Growers, Inc.
Calavo Growers, Inc. is a global avocado-industry leader and provider of value-added fresh food serving retail grocery, foodservice, club stores, mass merchandisers, food distributors and wholesalers worldwide. The Company’s Fresh segment procures and markets fresh avocados and select other fresh produce, including tomatoes and papayas. The Renaissance Food Group (RFG) segment creates, markets and distributes a portfolio of healthy, fresh foods, including fresh-cut fruit, fresh-cut vegetables and prepared foods. The Foods segment manufactures and distributes guacamole and salsa. Founded in 1924, Calavo’s fresh food products are sold under the respected Calavo brand name as well as Garden Highway, Chef Essentials and a variety of private label and store brands.
<<<
>> market makers and other crooks use it <<
Yes, everyone on Wall Street uses the same TA rules, and set their computer algorithms to those rules, so it becomes self fulfilling. That's why investors need at least a basic understanding of TA.
Wall St traders and hedge funds use the same support and resistance levels, based on the same 20-50-100-200 day moving averages, previous highs and lows, use the same array of indicators, Bollinger band signals, chart formations, candlestick patterns, volume patterns, etc.
Even something as supposedly 'wild' as Bitcoin trades by these TA rules. Basic TA is a 'must know' for anyone involved in the stock market, even for investors who are mainly long term buy/hold oriented.
But more important (imo) is asset allocation and controlling the emotional aspects of investing, the yin/yang of greed, fear, ego, etc. It's interesting that women investors tend to have better long term results than men. They tend to buy quality, trade less, and are much less motivated by ego. So there's a lesson there for us guys :o)
You sound better with T/A than me. I agree, it is helpful, but.... I read that brokerage houses invented it to induce more trading. If so, it worked, lol. I think I posted to you than now market makers and other crooks use it to slaughter the sheeple, set it up then break the rule.
That's interesting that the lower trendline is lined up exactly, although if you include the October low then it throws it off.
Back in my Stockcharts.com 'chart-school' days, TA expert Art Hill used trend lines a lot in his videos, but I always preferred using the regular support and resistance levels based on moving averages and the previous highs + lows. But using trendlines can work especially well as a signal if there is a well established uptrend or downtrend or a channel.
With RIBT, the 1.00 area is key support based on both the 50 MA being there, plus from it being at the lower trendline, and also from 1.00 being a key psychological level.
However, using trendlines, the RIBT chart can also be interpreted as having an uptrend starting in Oct and ending in Feb, followed by a sideways consolidation from March to June. If you do a trendline that includes the Oct low, then that (steeper) trendline was already broken in April.
With TA, I try not to get too crazy with it. Using the basics as a supplement to fundamental analysis seems to work best. Art Hill always stressed that TA should be one component in an investor's overall toolkit.
$RIBT is right on an ascending bottom channel line connecting bottoms from 10/20, 4/21 and 5/21 to now. $1.03 is support today, hope it holds that channel line.
>>> Generac Stock: Charging Higher With Big Money
Yahoo Finance
Lucas Downey
June 22, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/generac-stock-charging-higher-big-103232346.html
So, what’s Big Money? That’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.
Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Generac has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.
This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the stock trades is what points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares for years.
You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.
That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all of the big money signals GNRC has made the last year.
The last few days has seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price. Red signals are showing big selling in the shares:
In 2021, the stock has steadily gained. In June alone, GNRC made 6 of these rare green signals. This came after a big selloff earlier this year when growth stocks were under pressure. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.
Now, let’s check out a few technicals grabbing my attention:
YTD outperformance vs. market (+58.22% vs. SPY)
YTD outperformance vs. industrials ETF (+55.84% vs. XLI)
Outperformance is huge for leading stocks.
Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Generac has been growing rapidly. Take a look:
3-year sales growth rate (+14.22%)
3-year earnings growth rate (+30.03%)
Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.
In fact, Generac has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, multiple times the last few years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
GNRC has been a constant Big Money favorite since 2019. And since its first appearance on this report, it’s up +427%:
Generac continues to fire on all cylinders technically alongside growing sales. With many high-quality growth stocks beginning to breakout with Big Money, I like the long-term story of the stock.
The Bottom Line
The GNRC rally likely has further upside. Big money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.
<<<
The Temptation of Eve. There's a relatively famous economist/statistician from Harvard who favors a market top about now - Harry Dent. But then, Bernie Madoff was from Harvard too, as are many other thieves and such. But like many, I have found numerous technical relationships that follow the Dent suggestion (of which can meander into July and even longer 4500).
He contends 4260 is an approximate top for the S&P from which 50% or more in decline will be realized, but suggests 4500 is another such target. Dent target
I doodle and doodle and doodle and doodle and doodle with charts, scans... enough so, I now tie my hands to where they cannot reach my hair. The NYA is a dinosaur having an unusual collection of patterns pointing to this very period of potential turmoil. NYA1 and NYA2
Stop there? No way. I'm stupid. There is a technical scenario called the Dow Theory elevation - demonstrated support/resistance levels are broken in a top. Dow1 and Dow Transports 1
That said, the Fed is doing reverse REPOs and buying other debt than can skew anything. What do you do? The Temptation of Eve.
btw... the two picks were found on my nightly scan. I am not familiar with either one.
Technical attraction: GAME and THCBF. I have a small collection of general market charts I will put up shortly. Something needing my attention just popped up. I will post them in a hour or less.
Cotton, The general idea for the board has been promising chart setups/patterns, but can also be for longer term stock/sector ideas. Not too interested in sub-penny stocks, but anything else is fair game. I like to trade stocks that are also good long term holdings (instead of junk) so if the timing is off, you don't mind waiting.
A few recent ideas -
Generac (GNRC) - last week the chart was set up for a breakout (~ 360). Subsequently broke out and is now in 390-400 area.
Insperity (NSP) - currently set up for a breakout (95)
Clean Energy sector - consolidation looks almost complete, so could be time to re-enter the sector for the longer term.
Else Nutrition (BABYF) - has consolidated, but waiting to see if the bottom is truly in.
Would welcome your stock/chart ideas :o)
What are the qualifications and parameters for posts?
>>> Best Oil ETFs for Q3 2021
OIL, OILK, and BNO are the best oil ETFs for Q3 2021
Investopedia
By NATHAN REIFF
May 18, 2021
https://www.investopedia.com/news/5-etfs-track-oil-usodbooilucouwti/?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral
Oil exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer direct access to the oil market by tracking the price of oil as a commodity. This approach is different from investing in funds that own a portfolio of oil stocks. There is potential for significant returns through investing in the oil sector, but risks remain high amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting massive disruption of economies worldwide. Oil prices historically have been prone to quick, dramatic swings up and down. Oil ETFs provide investors a straightforward way to gain exposure to those price swings without having to buy and store the physical commodity or navigate the complexities of investing in oil futures contracts.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Oil prices have dramatically outperformed the broader stock market over the past year.
The ETFs with the best 1-year trailing total return are OIL, OILK, and BNO.
The top holdings of the first two ETFs are futures contracts for Sweet Light Crude Oil (WTI), and the top holdings of the third are futures contracts for Brent Crude Oil.
There are currently 6 distinct oil commodity ETFs that trade in the U.S., excluding inverse and leveraged ETFs, as well as funds with less than $50 million in assets under management (AUM). Oil prices have climbed by 137.2% over the past twelve months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's total return of 48.7%, as of May 14, 2021.12 The best-performing oil ETF, based on performance over the past year, is the iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN (OIL). We examine the top 3 oil ETFs below. These ETFs focus on oil as a commodity rather than oil company stocks. All numbers below are as of May 17, 2021.3
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN (OIL)
Performance over 1-Year: 114.5%
Expense Ratio: 0.75%
Annual Dividend Yield: N/A
3-Month Average Daily Volume: 32,369
Assets Under Management: $55.0 million
Inception Date: April 20, 2011
Issuer: Barclays Capital
OIL provides exposure to the Barclays WTI Crude Oil Pure Beta TR Index, which aims to reflect potential returns of futures contracts in the crude oil markets. The fund is structured as an exchange-traded note (ETN), a type of unsecured debt security that is similar to a bond, but trades on an exchange like a stock. The ETF's underlying index may utilize futures contracts of varying expiration dates. The holdings of OIL are futures contracts of Sweet Light Crude Oil (WTI).45
ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK)
Performance over 1-Year: 113.9%
Expense Ratio: 0.68%6
Annual Dividend Yield: N/A
3-Month Average Daily Volume: 28,559
Assets Under Management: $83.3 million
Inception Date: Sept. 26, 2016
Issuer: ProShares
OILK targets the Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI Crude Oil Index. Unlike some other oil ETFs, OILK does not aim to track the performance of the spot price of WTI crude oil, and indeed may perform very differently. Rather, like the target index, OILK aims to track the performance of three separate contract schedules for WTI crude oil futures. The fund's holdings are futures contracts of Sweet Light Crude Oil (WTI).67
United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO)
Performance over 1-Year: 105.0%
Expense Ratio: 1.13%8
Annual Dividend Yield: N/A
3-Month Average Daily Volume: 1,142,773
Assets Under Management: $324.3 million
Inception Date: June 2, 2010
Issuer: Concierge Technologies
BNO, a futures-based commodity pool, does not track West Texas Intermediate (WTI), like the two funds above. Rather, BNO tracks the spot price of Brent Crude Oil, the crude oil benchmark for the EMEA region. Because Brent often trades at a different price from WTI, BNO can be a useful way of gaining alternative exposure. The holdings of BNO are futures contracts for Brent Crude Oil.89
<<<
>>> Here comes $100 oil prices: BofA strategist
Yahoo Finance
by Brian Sozzi
June 21, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here-comes-100-oil-prices-bof-a-strategist-172630376.html
The growing consensus on Wall Street is that the rally in oil prices has more room to the upside as the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, maybe a lot more room.
Bank of America commodities strategist Francisco Blanch said in a research note on Monday he sees a case for $100 a barrel oil next year.
"First, there is plenty of pent up mobility demand after an 18 month lockdown. Second, mass transit will lag, boosting private car usage for a prolonged period of time. Third, pre-pandemic studies show more remote work could result in more miles driven, as work-from-home turns into work-from-car. On the supply side, we expect government policy pressure in the U.S. and around the world to curb capex over coming quarters to meet Paris goals. Secondly, investors have become more vocal against energy sector spending for both financial and ESG reasons. Third, judicial pressures are rising to limit carbon dioxide emissions. In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022," explained Blanch.
While other commodities prices such as lumber and copper have corrected lately, oil has maintained its bullish bias.
At more than $74.63 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since fall 2018. The price of brent crude is up about 88% over the past year.
Recent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand amid economic rebounds meeting low levels of supply.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.
Similar to BofA, Goldman Sachs is expecting firmer oil prices moving forward. Strategists at the investment bank don't rule out prices nearing $100 a barrel before year end.
"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements," Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie contends.
Adds Currie, "With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude."
<<<
>>> POET Technologies Inc. (POETF) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells discrete and integrated opto-electronic solutions in Canada, the United States, and Singapore. It offers integration solutions based on the POET Optical Interposer, a novel platform that allows the seamless integration of electronic and photonic devices into a single multi-chip module using advanced wafer-level semiconductor manufacturing techniques and packaging methods. It also develops photonic integrated components. The company serves the data center, telecommunications, Internet of things and industrial sensing, automotive LIDAR, and on-board optic markets. The company was formerly known as Opel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to POET Technologies Inc. in June 2013. POET Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
<<<
>>> Insperity Inc (NSP) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
NSP earnings call for the period ending March 31, 2021.
Motley Fool Transcribers
(MFTranscribers)
May 3, 2021 at 9:30PM
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/05/03/insperity-inc-nsp-q1-2021-earnings-call-transcript/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Insperity Inc (NYSE:NSP)
Q1 2021 Earnings Call
May 3, 2021, 5:00 p.m. ET
Contents:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good afternoon. My name is Paul and I'll be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Insperity First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
At this time, I would like to introduce today's speakers. Joining us are Paul Sarvadi, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Douglas Sharp, Senior Vice President of Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.
At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Douglas Sharp. Mr. Sharp, please go ahead.
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Douglas S. Sharp -- Senior Vice President Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Thank you. We appreciate you joining us. Let me begin outlining our plan for this evening's call. First, I'm going to discuss the details behind our first quarter 2021 financial results. Paul will then comment on the key drivers behind our Q1 results and our plan for the remainder of the year. I will return to provide our financial guidance for the second quarter and an update to the full year guidance. We will then end the call with a question-and-answer session.
Now before we begin, I would like to remind you that Mr. Sarvadi or I may make forward-looking statements during today's call, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. In addition, some of our discussion may include non-GAAP financial measures. For a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures, please see the company's public filings, including the Form 8-K filed today, which are available on our website.
Now let's discuss our first quarter results. We achieved $1.82 in adjusted earnings per share, a 7% increase over Q1 of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $104 million. These results reflect the average number of paid worksite employees in line with our expectation, pricing above targeted levels, upside in each of our direct cost programs and ongoing management of our operating costs. As for our growth metrics, as expected, the average number of paid worksite employees in Q1 of 2021 declined by 2% compared to Q1 of 2020 and included the loss of one large enterprise account that we referred to in our previous earnings call.
Excluding this account, paid worksite employees would have been relatively flat sequentially from Q4 of 2020 to Q1 of this year. It's also important to note that during the challenges of the pandemic over the past year, we've increased the number of clients by 8%. This was however offset by a reduction in the average size of our clients due to pandemic-related layoffs.
Now, as most of you are aware, the year-end transition from 2020 to 2021 in which we enroll new clients from our fall sales campaign and renew approximately 45% of our existing clients is important to our 2021 starting point and, therefore, our full year growth expectations. We are pleased to report a successful year-end transition. Worksite employees paid from new client sales were in line with our budget and we're 93% of Q1 of 2020, a period prior to the onset of the pandemic.
First quarter client attrition also came in on budget, including the loss of the large enterprise account. Excluding this one account, attrition totaled 9%, an improvement over Q1 of 2020's attrition of 11%. As for the third component of our growth, the strength of our clients in the gradually improving operating environment helped drive net hiring by our existing clients above budgeted levels.
Now let's move on to gross profit, which increased by 7% over Q1 of 2020 on the 2% decline in worksite employees. This increase included higher than expected contributions from each of the three primary direct cost programs as a result of both solid pricing and lower costs. On the pricing side, we exceeded our targets on both the HR service fee component and each component of our direct cost pricing allocations. As for the cost side beginning with benefits, we continue to see a gradual return to normal levels of healthcare utilization coming off of the earlier stages of the pandemic. However, when combined with COVID-related vaccine, testing and treatment costs, overall cost came in slightly below our expectations.
Our workers' compensation program continues to perform well, due primarily to our client selection and ongoing management of safety practices and claims. When combined with some favorable impact from the reduction of claims due to the work-from-home status of many of our clients' employees, Q1 workers' compensation costs also came in below budget.
As for the payroll tax area, you may recall that at the time of our previous earnings call in which we first provided 2021 guidance, we had not yet received all state unemployment tax rates. This was not typical as the delay was due to various states still determining how pandemic-related unemployment would impact their 2021 employment rates.
During Q1, we received our tax rates from most states and collectively these rates came in below our projections. This resulted in a higher than expected contribution to gross profit in the quarter. In addition, the Q1 upside resulted from lower on -- Q1 upside resulting from the lower SUTA rates during the quarter, we received a $6 million federal payroll tax refund related to the prior year. This also contributed to higher gross profit.
Now, as for operating expenses, we continue to balance managing costs relative to the ongoing pandemic, while also investing in our current and long-term growth plans. We continue to grow our sales force at targeted levels with a 7% increase in the average number of trained business performance advisors. We also increased our marketing spend related to lead generation activity and incurred costs related to our sales force implementation. We upheld other corporate headcount relatively flat and managed other areas, including travel related costs and historically low levels as the economy and growth recovers from the pandemic. In total, operating expenses increased 13% over Q1 of 2020, however were flat when excluding performance-based compensation.
Now, our financial position and liquidity remained strong as we continued with our investment in our growth and provide returns to our shareholders. During the quarter, we repurchased 340,000 shares of stock at a cost of $30 million, paid out $15 million in cash dividends and invested $12 million in capital expenditures. We ended Q1 with $197 million of adjusted cash and $370 million of debt.
Now at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Paul.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Doug. And thank you all for joining our call. Today, I'll start with some comments on our strong first quarter results and the momentum driving our outperformance leading us to raise our forecast for the year. I'll follow with our view of the small and medium-sized business marketplace, including recent trends in hiring and business owner sentiment we're seeing in our client base. I'll finish my comments with how we believe we are on a solid path for a return to double-digit growth and profitability.
We're pleased with our strong first quarter results and the excellent execution driving many key metrics in the business from sales and retention to pricing and direct cost. In addition, hiring momentum within the client base has accelerated and appears that small and medium size business community is primed for growth.
This quarter, our paid worksite employees from prior bookings reflected our solid fall campaign sales and came in at 93% at the same period in 2020, which was largely pre-pandemic. As a reminder, sales booked in a given quarter generally become paid worksite employees in the subsequent quarter as new clients and their worksite employees are enrolled, paid and then flow into revenues.
Our sales team is off to an impressive start to the year achieving 102% of our budgeted bookings in this quarter. The number of trained business performance advisors was up 7% and this team increased discovery calls by 16% and business profiles by 21%. The number of new clients sold also increased 16% over the same period last year, which is notable since most of Q1 last year was pre-pandemic. However, the average number of worksite employees per client was down, reflecting the pandemic-related downsizing that's occurred over the last year and also a light quarter for our mid-market sales.
First quarter booked sales in mid-market were below budget, largely due to a strong fourth quarter that exhausted the pipeline. However, the pipeline is rebuilding rapidly with a 27% increase in leads and a 13% increase in proposal opportunities over last year. Some of these have already converted to sold accounts, but it was too late for them to be in the first quarter.
So I'm particularly encouraged by recent activity and the strong workforce optimization sales pipeline across the board. And we're also seeing an increase in activity related to WX, our workforce acceleration traditional employment solution initiative. Over the last year, as we responded to the challenges of the pandemic, WX took somewhat of a backseat to our flagship workforce optimization co-employment offering due to our focus on transitioning to remote selling. We took this opportunity in the fourth quarter to tweak the product and pricing and tested these changes in specific markets. We reintroduced WX to the entire BPA team during our virtual sales convention early this year and impressive results followed. WX proposals increased 90% over the same period last year and book sales more than doubled in both the number of accounts and employees sold.
Our WX initiative is an important long-term plan to increase sales efficiency, providing a traditional employment HR bundle alternative at a lower price point is designed to capitalize on the investment we've already made in our team of more than 650 BPAs across the country that are calling on more than 40,000 small businesses each year.
WX is an HR solution with excellent technology and a unique level of service intended to offer a starting point in improving the HR function for a company that's not quite ready for our comprehensive workforce optimization service. Our goal over time is to convert some portion of the nine out of 10 prospects that we do not sell WO into WX clients and ultimately upgrade them to WO, increasing our sales efficiency. We expect to build upon this new momentum and continue our progress over the balance of the year.
Our workforce optimization client retention was also a highlight this quarter, improving by 15% over last year, excluding the large client loss discussed last quarter. The strong underlying trends in this metric across our segments during the year end transition and through the first quarter add to our confidence in our growth plans.
Our performance in the gross profit area has been excellent throughout the pandemic despite the many moving parts and changing dynamics. The typical mix change in accounts that occurs from Q4 to Q1 during our heavy sales and renewal campaign added to our strong pricing performance, which has been a theme throughout this period. The clients that left in this quarter were lower priced and contributed less to gross profit on average than the balance of our book of business, resulting in a slightly more favorable gross profit outlook.
We are in a good position to meet our objective of managing price and cost to earn an appropriate management fee for administering our direct cost programs and taking some risk, although there is still some continuing uncertainty around benefits and unemployment cost. So, our first quarter established a strong start to the new year and we believe the underlying trends point toward growth acceleration and higher expectations for profitability for the full year.
Another reason for our confidence is in the momentum in client hiring driving a recent uptick in the average number of worksite employees per client. As we entered the new year, our average size client was down approximately 8% in the number of worksite employees after trimming back during the pandemic. We are now seeing a measurable recovery in this metric and a high degree of optimism from our small business client base.
Our client survey released today reflected small and medium-sized company owners and CEOs with a high rate of optimism and focused on driving growth in the near-term. When asked how optimistic you are with the outlook for your business this year, 86% were very or somewhat optimistic compared to 48% late last year and 72% in late 2019.
Further, 81% of those surveyed expect organizational performance to be better than last year and 53% expect to add employees and 35% expect to increase compensation. Only 3% expect to reduce staff and only 1% expect to decrease compensation. This optimism and these expectations were not the result of coming off a bad year. In fact, when asked about last year's results, 71% said they were better or as expected and only 10% said their results were worse than expected, which we believe reflects the quality of our client base and the success of our strategy to target the best, small and mid-sized businesses.
We also asked about top concerns and found driving growth to be the number one issue with external uncertainty around the economy, pandemic or political issues falling to second. It's also telling that the top three HR issues on their minds were maintaining or building a strong culture, recruiting and retaining talent and employee wellbeing.
We also monitor many HR data points that demonstrate whether clients are acting on or are justified in their optimism, including actual hiring, compensation changes, over time and commissions we pay on behalf of clients giving us some insight into recent client sales trends. Most notable this quarter was commission up over 11% from the same period last year, a double-digit increase for the second consecutive quarter. We generally see when commissions are up over 6% from the prior year, hiring and compensation increases subsequently trend upwards. Nothing brings out optimism in business owners more than strong sales momentum.
Anecdotally, I can also further validate the client/owner sentiment for many opportunities I had recently interacting directly with our clients. The theme of these interactions was somewhat surprised and relieved with strong performance last year, optimism about 2021 and gratitude for how Insperity supported them through the pandemic.
One of the many interesting outcomes from the intense period of HR needs from our clients last year was their discovery of the breadth and depth of our services and the level of care from our dedicated employees that has been there all along. The results of this increase in awareness and understanding of how we can help their businesses succeed has been a continuation of an elevated level of service interactions directly with owners and top leaders in our client companies and the heightened appreciation for our services.
We are capitalizing on this with an emphasis on referrals and new advertising and marketing messages to drive sales. So as we look ahead to the balance of this year and into next, considering our strong start to this year and trends we have seen so far, we believe we are on a solid path to return to double-digit growth and profitability.
Current trends in sales retention and hiring in the client base, combined with the comparison to Q2 2020 shutdown-related layoffs, has us on track to move from minus 2% year-over-year growth in the first quarter to 5% to 6% growth in the second quarter. Our guidance for the full year implies the back half of 2021 growth rates in the high single-digits, which positions us to return to double-digit growth in 2022 with an effective fall campaign.
On a final note, during the first quarter, we announced the retirement of Jay Mincks, our Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing, after an inspiring 31-year career with Insperity. Jay played a pivotal role in the growth and development of Insperity and his deep commitment to the success of the sales organization and the company will leave a tremendous legacy. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I want to extend our deep appreciation to Jay for his dedication and contributions to the success of Insperity over these many years, and we wish him the very best in his well-earned retirement.
At this point, I'd like to pass the call back to Doug.
Douglas S. Sharp -- Senior Vice President Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Thanks, Paul. And let me provide our guidance for the second quarter and an update for the full year 2021. Based upon the details that Paul just shared, including our successful start to the year and some improvement in the overall level of uncertainty, we have raised and narrowed our range of growth and earning expectations for 2021. We are now forecasting 4% to 6% worksite employee growth for the full year, an improvement over our initial guidance of 2% to 6% growth. This increase is based upon a higher starting point going into Q2, the recent improvement in hiring trends and continuing momentum in sales and client retention.
We are forecasting Q2 paid worksite employee growth of 5% to 6% over Q2 of 2020, a period which was significantly impacted by the onset of the pandemic. We now expect 2021 gross profit to be considerably higher than our initial budget based upon our Q1 outperformance and the recent positive trends in both pricing and direct costs, although there continues to be some uncertainty as we come out of the pandemic.
Our forecast in these areas includes a slight improvement in our workers' compensation cost trend, lower unemployment tax costs upon the receipt of lower than estimated rates in Q1 and the benefit cost trend consistent with our initial budget.
Our operating costs continue to reflect our 2021 plan of balancing our growth initiatives with the ongoing management of costs as our growth accelerates. So when taking into account these factors, we are forecasting adjusted EBITDA in a range of $250 million to $280 million, up from our initial guidance of $225 million to $275 million. As for full year 2021 adjusted EPS, we are now forecasting a range of $3.83 to $4.40, up from our previous guidance of $3.27 to $4.20.
As for Q2, we are forecasting adjusted EBITDA in a range of $44 million to $49 million and adjusted EPS from $0.60 to $0.70. As a reminder, our historical earnings pattern generally results in the decline from Q1 to Q2. As Q1 results are typically higher than subsequent quarters as we are in a higher level of payroll tax surplus prior to employees reaching their taxable wage limits and benefit costs are lower in Q1 and step up over the remainder of the year as deductibles are met. Additionally, the Q2 year-over-year comparison is impacted by the onset of the pandemic in Q2 of 2020 and its favorable impact in our benefit plan in the prior year's period.
Now, at this time, I'd like to open up the call for questions.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Tobey Sommer with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Thank you. Wanted to ask you what you're hearing from customers in your survey work, etc, about what net job growth could be in the existing customer base because I can recall just two or three years ago we were getting cash almost 4 or 5 points worth of worksite employee growth off of that measure. Do you think there is an opportunity for that to come back?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Tobey, I really do. I think, what I'm hearing right now is that there's definitely a growth mindset. And there's a lot of energy and business owners are ready to move on and they're moving on. And I think there's room to recover the 8% or so decline that you had in the average employees per client over that pandemic period. So, I think, those will recover and then you'll start to get new growth as well. So, we've budgeted in the balance of the year for what we saw in the first quarter and moved things up some, not up to the levels you're talking about that we saw back in the period you were discussing, but, yeah, it's definitely we've seen an uptick now and that average number beginning to move up again. And I think there's room for that to recover.
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Okay. What kind of changes did you make to the traditional employment package that provided kind of such a kick-start after you did your internal presentations to sales force?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So, what we did basically is, we looked at what was in the package that wasn't getting much utilization or wasn't really adding as much value as we thought based on what the customers were telling us. And so, we took some of those things out, made them add-ons that allowed us to reduce the price of the -- of that particular service. And by doing so, I think we just hit a price point that was more comfortable for our BPAs as they compare this set of services to our comprehensive solution. So, a lot of energy around it right now and hopefully we're going to build on that and really start to see that strategy make a difference for us.
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Thanks. Last one from me. Can you talk about your pricing and kind of give us context for whatever the rate of change is versus recent quarters or years? And maybe if you could also speak to the normalization of healthcare utilization and what you're hearing and seeing about acuity as well? Thanks.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
So, on the pricing side, as you recall, coming out of 2019, we were -- or actually last half of 2019 and throughout 2020, we were a little more aggressive in pricing to make sure that we had a good balance between price and cost trend for benefits. And we were very successful throughout the course of last year in maintaining that, even though, as you know, the cost side of the benefit program was lower because was lower because of the impact of the pandemic and lower utilization.
So, we continued to build in the normal trend into our pricing and then the same has gone on for this year. So, we're back -- for this year, we're in a very normal price -- passing on price increases that fit with what that trend has implied over these last couple of years. And I think we reported that last time that's about 3.5% a year or so. So that's what we would have built in. Of course, we build in a little more than that in pricing to make sure there's a cushion there. So, the 4% is a cost side, the 3.5% per year.
So, back to your second question, Doug, if you want to talk a little bit about the trend compared to the cost and utilization?
Douglas S. Sharp -- Senior Vice President Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Yeah. I mean, I think what we're seeing is, the utilization is returning more to a normalized levels and we saw that a little bit in the prior quarter in going through to the first quarter, but still probably not up to -- all the way up to the expectations. I think, we expect that to continue to normalize further over the second half of the year. And we are seeing some obviously COVID costs as it relates to vaccine, treatment and testing costs, which, to some extent, offset some of that lower utilization that occurred this past quarter.
So, all things combined, obviously we went into the 2021 year and put a budget together on our expected benefit cost trend. There was reasons to be somewhat cautious with the uncertainty out there as it relates to both of those factors. I think, at the end of the day, as it relates to Q1, our benefit cost came in a little bit below that -- below our budget. But for the full year, I think we still see things trending consistent with the budget that we put together and the 2021 costs in the 6% to 7% range over 2020.
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Thanks very much.
Operator
The next question is from the line of Josh Vogel with Sidoti. Your line is open.
Josh Vogel -- Sidoti -- Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon, Paul and Doug. Thanks for taking my questions. The first -- net gains from hiring were strong in Q1, you also saw 7% increase in revenue per worksite employee. Does the higher revenue per worksite employee generally reflect higher compensation? Are you seeing more hours worked in over time? I guess, it's just surprising to see net hiring gains but also such a strong increase in revenue. I'm curious, are those trends sustainable?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think most of that revenue per employee comes from the fact that we have some components that go up faster, like the healthcare component, faster than inflation or even than wage inflation, but there may be also be a little bit of a mix of higher paid employees because a lot of the layoffs were in lower paid employees. So you may have a mix change that affects that as well. Keep in mind, we make our money more on a per employee per month basis, so that revenue per employee doesn't really make that big a difference to us.
Josh Vogel -- Sidoti -- Analyst
That makes sense. Thank you. Building off, I guess, one of the earlier questions around pricing, your workers' comp program continues to see favorable trends and you mentioned the positive claims frequency from the work-from-home status.
And as things return more to normal and these clients' employees go back to the office setting in some -- is it fair to assume that claims [Phonetic] frequency can and will -- but also on the other side of it as clients may install a permanent work-from-home setting or go hybrid that should continue to depress claims activity? I'm just curious, does that change your strategy around pricing workers' comp or the dialogue you're having with those clients?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
I don't think it changes our strategy any. We are watching to see what goes on in terms of behavior changes in the marketplace and see if that affects things in the long run. But for the near-term, it's all priced by what type of risk there is with given roles that employees play in a company. And our whole book of business is very much more white collar than blue or even gray collar. And so, we really don't have any need to make any changes there, but we're keeping an eye on anything that may change.
Josh Vogel -- Sidoti -- Analyst
Okay, great. And two more quick ones. Just curious, are you still mostly remotely selling? And when you think about things getting back to normal, will it become a hybrid type of approach on your end or are you going to go back more exclusively to face-to-face?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
So, first of all, we are certainly still mostly through remote selling. However, we are starting to see more requests and opportunities for face-to-face visits. So we're hoping that continues because I think we are -- I know we are more effective that way if this is a trust-based sale and trust is built more effectively face-to-face. I also expect us to be very proactive in how we integrate face-to-face and remote selling into our sales motion on a going forward basis. I think it makes a lot of sense to hold our initial discovery call remotely where we can gather information and do introductory and discovery call, accomplish those objectives. I think you can accomplish those pretty effectively remotely.
And then, it also would make your face-to-face call more effective when you -- in the first time you're in the room together more specific to that client's needs. So, if you do that that way and then maybe you can close it -- maybe it face-to-face where we can do that remotely. But in any event, I think, you can squeeze the timeframe some, we did it right and we can see more prospects if this sales motion works. So we're going to be very proactive about trying to lead the client, so this is how we should do this, so it should take this amount of time between face-to-face and remote selling visits.
Josh Vogel -- Sidoti -- Analyst
Sure. Makes sense. And lastly, I apologize if I missed it in your prepared remarks. Did you talk about BPA hiring plans in Q2 and the balance of the year?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think based on where we are right now, we have in our plan to add BPAs at a pretty good clip over the balance of the year, starting in the third quarter. We're at the point today though, I think we're basically saying, go and push that button and let's start getting more BPAs as soon as possible. I think it makes sense because we're -- everything is in shape and in line for our growth acceleration. And so, now you're talking about investing in BPAs to make sure that a year from now, you're getting the right level of effectiveness for 2023.
Josh Vogel -- Sidoti -- Analyst
Yeah. Makes sense. Well, thanks for taking my questions.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Jeff Martin with ROTH Capital Partners. Your line is open.
Jeff Martin -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst
Thanks. Hi, Doug. Hi, Paul. Hope you're both doing well.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Jeff.
Douglas S. Sharp -- Senior Vice President Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Thank you, Jeff.
Jeff Martin -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst
I wanted to -- hi, hi. Wanted to dig in on the growth acceleration that you outlined for the worksite employee base. As we move into the second half of this year and then as we transition into 2021, it appears to me as though you've got multiple levers driving that. Was just curious if you could kind of that return to more impactful among them? One, being getting back to selling workforce acceleration. Two, being the BPAs are more efficient and effective. Three, the sales efficiency numbers have ticked up nicely recently. And four, you've got improved client retention here.
I'm guessing the loyalty that's created from last year's efforts will continue to pay dividends for several years. Out of those four buckets or maybe I'm missing one, what are the most impactful to this growth acceleration in worksite employees as we move into next year?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Well, I think in the model, of course, the better your retention is the fewer new employees you have to bring in from new sales or even from growth in the client base. But -- so, we always -- that retention number improving, the underlying retention number without the large customer that went away, unusually large customer. An improvement of 15% in retention is significant. And I do believe that this has been driven by the heightened awareness and appreciation for the services we're providing, a better understanding of the breadth and depth of the services and the level of care that we've provided.
And so, I just think going through the next year end transition, I'm confident we'll do well. We don't have those large lumpy customers that can kind of disrupt that, they just don't have any -- like that at this point. So, I would say that's the first one.
But secondly, I mean, the growth machine is the sales machine. And so, it's very important that these -- so I gave you some info about the underlying metrics and the rate at which we're getting discovery calls and proposals. That's the pipeline. And the activity levels are good, attitudes are great and they're effective, very effective and we're working on how do we -- what can we do to help them more and increase their sales efficiency.
So, my expectations are built around hitting the metrics that are -- that we've been able to rely on in the past. We did tilt the budget a little bit just slightly, accelerating efficiency through the year. There is a normal pattern to that already, but we're hitting those basic metrics and not relying on an improvement in efficiency. We're always trying to work for sales efficiency gain, but I don't want to rely on that in budgeting and forecasting and leave that to the upside.
So, the other thing though that's given us confidence right now is the early boost from worksite employees in the client base that they're adding. And when I look at the underlying commissions we're paying to the sales staff of our customers, that insight into their sales pipeline is showing that they're doing well and they're acting on what they're seeing and their optimism and they're expecting to grow. So, 53% are expecting to add employees and only 3% expecting to reduce employees, that's a big number. And so, it's the hardest one to predict because you don't know how many and when and how fast you can find the right people.
But generally speaking, we just felt we had to factor in some higher level of hiring than we had factored in, in our original budget. So, all those factors are important and we're definitely in an all systems go kind of mindset and expecting growth acceleration in these subsequent quarters.
Jeff Martin -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst
That's helpful insight. I appreciate it. My other question is surrounding some of your investments that you called out. Your sales force investment, I believe, is still early in a couple of year process. Wondering how that roll out is going? If you're seeing any efficiencies in the early stages out of that? And then, secondly, if you could touch on or elaborate a little more on your lead generation initiatives?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Sure. So, first of all, on the sales force implementation, we wouldn't expect to see any benefit yet because we basically just completed, what they call -- what do we call that, the bedrock phase where it's an amazing amount of work that has been done by a significant number of people across the company -- all across the company that have helped provide the information to detail out exactly how this implementation takes place and the coding has begun.
So, we're right on track where we want to be on that front and pleased to be able to report that this group were able to really deeply and detail -- at a detailed level -- put together this plan so that the whole company will be on the same page at how we look at customers, how -- all the different fields that relate to every customer and how we'll be able to all look at the same data the same way and be able to use the data much more effectively.
So, we're -- confidence is up that we're going to be able to accomplish that because this phase is so important. If you don't have the right blueprint for success, you won't be able to have that successful implementation. So we're well on our way and like where we are on that front.
So, on your question on the marketing side of the business, we did just release some new TV ads that just launched this past weekend. I think they're really great. Their help with some of the messaging about what the difference -- what a company is able to do when we're in place in that firm. And it's done in a creative way. So I'm hopeful that that overarching marketing message from a broad TV approach will provide low air cover for our BPAs out there. But that messaging is going throughout our marketing, digital and all the things that work for us to bring leads in every day.
So, our lead production is in a good place. We're always trying to do more. And we'll make some more strategic investments in that as we see fit to make sure you pour gas on the fire and take advantage of this opportunity to accelerate growth.
Jeff Martin -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst
Thank you, Paul, for that. And good to see the momentum in the business.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jeff.
Operator
The next question is from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird. Your line is open.
Mark Marcon -- Baird -- Analyst
Good afternoon. Congratulations on the results and the momentum that's building up. I'm wondering if you can talk just a little bit more with regards to the healthcare cost trending with initial expectations. You gave some commentary on that, but the guidance range was pretty wide in terms of like what was framed as the initial expectations. So, I'm wondering, if you could just narrow that down a little bit or give any additional color both for the remainder of this year and then how we should think about things for next year?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think the main thing to focus in on there is, of course, our position in terms of matching the price and the cost, and that's why we're very comfortable. We have built into the budget some expectation of, what you'd call, a little bit of a bubble of cost that may come from more utilization that was pent-up through the pandemic.
And although to the degree that we haven't seen -- we've seen things normalize, but we haven't seen it go beyond what you would expect. And therefore, since it's still below that normal level, it's offset some of the extra COVID costs that we've built in, but it was modest in the first quarter. So we did come out under the expectation in costs, but it's pretty modest in this -- compared to the size of the plan. There wasn't really any need to change our view of what to expect for the balance of the year. That bubble of cost, most think it's still out there, although we haven't heard anybody yet point to specific evidence of it, but it makes sense that there is pent-up utilization and possibly some deferral of care that could cause some higher cost types of care in the coming months.
So I think it pays, we should be conservative there and we are in how we've forecasted that. But in any event, we have built in our pricing to be able to accommodate that. And so, now we're at that tweaking phase again. If it's a little higher, you can build costs a little faster. If it's a little lower, well, maybe you don't have to build pricing quite as fast. So, we're just in an optimal phase for matching price and cost. Still uncertainty out there on that cost side, but I think we've been appropriately conservative.
Mark Marcon -- Baird -- Analyst
That's great. And then, can you talk just a little bit more, I mean, it sounded very hopeful with regards to how WX is doing in terms of workforce acceleration in Q1. Just can you give a little bit more specificity with regards to like, OK, how uniform was it across the various regions? Were there any distinctions between the types of BPAs that were selling it more? How much did it end up boosting their productivity by having that arrow in their quiver? To what extent is the success that they're seeing filtering through to the rest of the BPAs? How should we think about that?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Those are great questions and questions that I'm still asking over here. There is a lot of potential there. So I'm always wanting to kind of dig in, but it's kind of like you plant these seeds. And if you plant seeds in the ground, you got to dig them up to see if they're growing, you've kind of ruined it. So, you have to kind of give this kind of thing time to really develop a bit. And because we kind of took a back seat there for the COVID period and this is more of a restart, I don't have a lot of deeper information to really be able to pass on to you.
But, as we see that, we certainly -- I'm just happy we've got momentum again and it's on the radar. It was quite prevalent across the organization, I can say that, which -- that's part of what you're looking for that. People are on-board with the strategy and see how it's going to benefit them in the long run. So, that part is good and we'll pass on more detail as we get it.
Mark Marcon -- Baird -- Analyst
Great. I mean, would you say that maybe 5%, 10% of the incremental activity during the quarter was on acceleration or any sort of color that just even from a small sample size?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I don't really have it broken out that way to give you anything that I would want you to rely on. So I'd rather wait to see it develop a little further and give you some numbers that would be a trend that you could gain a better understanding from, rather than a case of one quarter and one point in time.
Mark Marcon -- Baird -- Analyst
Got it. And then, can you talk a little bit, Paul, about just the competitive environment and how you see the investments unfolding across the industry with regards to the PEO space? Obviously you came through and really helped a lot of clients. And you've got a lot of success stories there. So, I'm wondering, and others have expressed the same thing. So now that the economy is really opening up, to what extent can you fully leverage the way that you were able to help other companies and really show the further penetration of the PEO concept across the US?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
That's a great question. And Mark, I believe the PEO option really showed well during the pandemic for all the companies out there providing the service. And you've seen better retention rates, you've seen there is definitely the demand for the services really out there. But I think where we have room to increase the rate of penetration in the marketplace is just in the building of awareness. And there's -- I think that's really the only thing between going from 7% to 8% penetration to some significantly higher number. So it's all about opportunities, it's about educating the marketplace.
And I think, as that -- the messaging is so good right now that it's worth investing in that. And I believe investment will return in number of leads at the right level of interest where you can close the business. So, there is really to me the only impediment at this point is broad awareness and it takes seeing customers one by one to actually convert them. So, there is an investment to get the awareness up and then the investment to follow through on that, but we're in a good position for that. I think the whole industry is in the same shape as there's worth investing. So maybe we'll see that awareness build and see that penetration go up substantially over the next several years. That would be our hope.
Operator
Our last question is from the line of Tobey Sommer with Truist Securities. Your line is open up.
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Thanks. Just had a follow-up. With respect to your -- the additional healthcare coverage that you got for sort of extraordinarily large claims, how has that experience gone and is that something you're likely to change at all on a go-forward basis?
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
So, I think it was a good decision to make. If you look at the economics, you pay a lot for it. And normally it's kind of a trick back because you don't want to have to -- you don't want it to be back because your cost go up next year. But if your results are really good, then you may be spend a little too much money on it, but you've limited risk. So, in our case, I think it's come out within the range that for the first year that you feel like it's been a good deal for both companies. So that's probably the best place to end up.
We will evaluate as we go through this year. We've bought coverage at the same level, the $1 million level for this year and we're going to evaluate whether this makes any sense to have a different attachment point at a lower level than that or not. But at this point, I think we're in pretty decent shape there and we'll look at it as we go through the year to decide what to do for next year.
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Thank you very much. Have a good day.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
And that concludes the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sarvadi for closing remarks.
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Once again, thank you everybody for participating in today's call. We appreciate your interest and we look forward to communicating with you in any other type of one-on-one or a conference setting. And we're certainly here and available. If you have any questions, you can certainly give Doug a call, we're happy to set up a time tomb [Phonetic]. Thank you again.
Douglas S. Sharp -- Senior Vice President Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]
Duration: 53 minutes
Call participants:
Douglas S. Sharp -- Senior Vice President Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Paul J. Sarvadi -- Management Director Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Tobey Sommer -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Josh Vogel -- Sidoti -- Analyst
Jeff Martin -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst
Mark Marcon -- Baird -- Analyst
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Insperity - >>> 3 Dividend-Paying Business Services Stocks to Watch Out For
Zacks
Sanjana Goswami
May 31, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-dividend-paying-business-services-132901650.html
Insperity, Inc. NSP: This Texas-based Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company yesterday announced a dividend hike of 12.5%, thereby raising its quarterly cash dividend to 45 cents per share from 40 cents. The raised dividend will be paid out on Jun 24, 2021 to shareholders of record on Jun 10, 2021.
The company provides human resources and business solutions to improve business performance for small and medium-sized businesses.
Increase in average number of worksite employees paid per month has been aiding the company’s top line. Strength across sales, client retention and growth in the client base have also acted as other tailwinds. Further, Insperity raised its guidance for 2021.Adjusted earnings are now expected in the band of $3.83-$4.40 per share compared with the prior guidance of $3.27-$4.20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.95 lies within the updated guidance. Adjusted EBITDA is now anticipated in the range of $250-$280 million compared with the prior guidance of $225-$275 million. Average WSEEs are expected in the range of 243,600-248,300 compared with the prior guidance of 238,900-248,300.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2021 EPS has moved up 5.6% in the past 90 days. It has a long-term (three to five years) expected earnings growth rate of 15%. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 54.7%, on average. The stock has rallied 13.3% year to date.
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>>> Insperity Bumps up Quarterly Dividend By 12.5%; Shares Up 2%
Yahoo Finance
by Ben Mahaney
May 27, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insperity-bumps-quarterly-dividend-12-081423623.html
Insperity Inc (NSP) raised its quarterly dividend by 12.5% to $0.45 per share. The company provides human resources and business performance solutions. Shares of the company rose 2% to close at $92.59 on May 26.
The dividend is payable on June 24 to shareholders of record on June 10. Insperity annual dividend of $1.80 per share now reflects a dividend yield of 1.94%.
On May 3, Insperity reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results. The company’s earnings of $1.82 per share outpaced the Street estimate of $1.56. Total revenues of $1.3 billion were above the consensus estimate of $1.2 billion and increased 5% year over year.
Following the Q1 earnings announcement, Roth Capital analyst Jeff Martin increased the stock’s price target to $103 (11.2% upside potential) from $98 and reiterated a Buy rating.
Martin remains positive about the first quarter results and the strong metrics reported by the company. He expects the company to return to double digit growth in 2022 and is encouraged by the improvement in the sales metrics.
The rest of the Street is cautiously optimistic about the stock with a Moderate Buy consensus rating. That’s based on 2 Buys versus 1 Hold. The average analyst price target of $105.33 implies 13.8% upside potential to current levels. Shares have increased 68.9% over the past year.
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