CHARTS_QoneO

[123tom]

That's an interesting concept about metals...moving seasonal.
not sure its all about geography though. I think its more about Cartel control, like 200 years worth. now with a new player involved (China) .currency manipulation, gold standard (stopped in 1971) resuming gradually soon("soon" meaning getting ready in the past 10 years and resetting in the next maybe 2-4 years ) gradually.
Suppression in relation to the real economy,(Austrian economics)which is nothing like the fake market economy we see in Mainstream news.

There are Big changes happening in Empire, the USGovernment,and the end of petro dollar system. and China wants a smooth transition as they take the seat of the Empire for the 21st century.
The gold backed Yuan is the global force coming. and prosperous cooperation not war as their foreign policy.

Looking at the gold chart this year, there has been a subtle shift, a change from the past 7 years of giant downwave. I expected to see the 2017 retrace continue into this first Q 2018,continuing below 1234,toward 1200, but they turned it upward in February to hang around 1360,instead of bleeding it down. Maybe they bleed it down now to bottom in summer. My target was a retest of 1200 at least and maybe as low as 1175 area, but now...rethinking.... looking at 1275-1235 as the lowest I can picture. The powers are keeping it at the higher steps this year. and makes the 200ma cutting across 1300 look like a major balance line.last year the 200ma was a resistance line around 1300,maybe support now. The powers appear to be holding gold more stable above 1300, but not allowing any surging rallies above 1370. and so far, not allowing any major downwave to retest 1200,so far.

[Qone0]

No, I'm just going to use this thread to track stuff with. So it's easy to find if I want to look at it again.

I used to trade JNUG and JDST a lot back when GDXJ was volatile. But the miners have been locked in a small range for over a year now. Gold is just trading as a currency. It won't trade as a safe haven unless the market turns into a big bear.

This is what i think about the miners.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140387311

This is my take on gold manipulation

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=139958153

[123tom]

Q,looks like you might be reviving an old forum here?

I'm often looking at miners ,metals and biotech.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and ideas. its been helpful.

Ive been interested in miners and metals since the 2008 collapse. but its been a crazy roller coaster for sure in these last 9 years.
GDXJ and most miners in general seem to suffer a lot in the manipulated metals game.
So many factors make miners a bad investment. but ok to trade if one has a good technical eye.

What things are you looking at these days beside SPY options?
Do you ever trade stocks as well?
GDXJ chart has been one of the more complicated to examine in my view.
AN unreal collapse from 2011 to 2016 and an unreal soaring rally in 2016 skewers the picture like a circus mirror/chart here

[Qone0]

Jeff decker TWLO call said this is a good place to buy calls. Tracking May 18 calls.

41.5 2.93
42 2.68
42.5 2.46
43 2.24
43.5 2.01
44 1.91
44.5 1.70
45 1.54

[Qone0]

https://invst.ly/57ncx

[Qone0]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/733758_10151505718589776_1143132910_n.jpg

[Qone0]

Here is a chart for everyones amusement. The red horizontal line are placed at tops before a retracement. Notice how each run into new highs is shorter than the previous high by about 50%.

If this patterns holds the next retracement should be at about 87.10 IWM.

[Magosabe]

Thanks, still learning missed the bottom, got back in around 83.00. But was out at 85.28.

[Qone0]

ADX (2) RSI (2) bottom spread formation on the daily again.

[Magosabe]

Looking to pull the trigger.

[Qone0]

They broke the double top. Lets see if they can close it there above it. Or if it was a bull trap.

[Magosabe]

Thanks for the update, Borad mark. I hope we have a reversal here, but overall market looks strong. Debating to move all in on the long side

[Qone0]

Double top hit @ 83.78 on IWM. Todays low is the same as the days low on the previous top on 2/18/11. I wonder if the candle will look the same at the close. Nah that would be to weird..lol.. The ADX RSI spread pattern worked again on the daily.

The RSI 2 is at a sell on the daily now.

The monthly RSI 2 is now at a sell also. The weekly however is not.

[Qone0]

ADX RSI spread bottom pattern forming on the daily.

[Qone0]

Guess I should not have underestimated that ADX RSI spread pattern...lol..

That pattern is closed now the RSI has crossed the ADX on the daily.

[Qone0]

Sold TNA @ 80

I screwed the entry up on this fairly bad so I just want out and I have to be out most of the day today.

[TREND1]

Q
Will read later.
Right now the below is working fine.
.
On page 71 there are rules for drawing trend lines by Trader Vic.
Drawing an up trend line
(1) Look for low and then high.
(2) Draw trend line from low to high with out using data beyond the high.(Important)
(3) Never cut a bar.( A must)
(4) Extend trend line past high, if needed. This may show a trend change.
(5) The slope of this trend line is a close approximation to the slope you would get
by doing a linear regression analysis on the price data over the same time period.

[Qone0]

Trend, yes I know, the world is falling apart all of a sudden. Three days ago things were wonderful <g>

But that RSI ADX spread pattern is right 90% of the time.

Do you have this on esignal?

http://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/getManual/eSignal_Manual_ch7.pdf

It's sort of interesting.

[TREND1]

Q
No bottom.IMHO
03_RUT_D_TREND_LINES

[Qone0]

the RSI 2 and ADX 2 spread is indicating a bottom forming here on the daily chart.

[Qone0]

bought TNA 78.25

[TREND1]

Interesting.

[Qone0]

sold tza 13.47

[Qone0]

TZA 60 min chart buy signal @ 13.44

[Qone0]

Sold TZA @ 13.98

[Qone0]

The Federal Reserve should seriously consider pulling back on its $600 billion stimulus program given stronger growth and a brighter jobs picture, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Tuesday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41472326

[Qone0]

TZA buy 60 min chart @ 13.80

[Qone0]

TZA buy did not trigger.

[Qone0]

Trend, I would probably use IWM with a EMA to chart with as the NAV burn would affect where that EMA is on a 3X.

I also have ADX set at 2

The daily RSI 2 is at a sell now on IWM. If this 60 min bar can hold red for thr next 8 min the 60 min chart will be long TZA.

[TREND1]

Q
COMMENTS
10 TZA_60_NORTHAM43_AXD_RSI_2

[Qone0]

A few words on using ADX and RSI together.

ADX is a strenth of trend indicator.
RSI is a momentum indicator.

When the strenth of the trend and momentum are the same the two indicators move in the same direction.

When the two indicators spread apart, move in different directions, this situation should be traded against the direction that caused it in extreme levels of the idicator.


by Chuck LeBeau

Now that I am spending seven hours a day doing trading for the new hedge fund I haven't had much time for research or writing new Bulletins. However a comment in one of the trading newsgroups that I monitor got me thinking about the potential benefits of combining our knowledge of RSI and ADX into a simple system. Both the ADX and RSI are valuable trading tools and a combination of the two would seem to offer some interesting possibilities.

I like to use the RSI primarily as an indicator for buying on dips in an uptrend. The ADX is my primary indicator of trend strength.

Here are a few ideas on how the two indicators might compliment each other in a system that "knows" when to enter on strength and when to buys on dips. (I'm only going to use the long side for examples but the logic should apply to short trades as well.)


When the ADX is rising it usually indicates that a strong trend is underway. In many cases waiting for any sizeable dip would be costly because the market could run away and the dip entry would be too late to maximize our profits. In this case we must enter on strength. To make this idea into a simple trading rule we might state that if the ADX is rising (and we have some indication it is rising because an uptrend is underway) we will buy whenever the RSI is below some very high threshold like 85. This rule would give us a very prompt entry in most cases and the result would be almost identical to simply trading whenever the ADX is rising which seems to be a good idea. The RSI has little, if any, benefit in this situation except it might occasionally keep us from buying into an extremely overbought market where the RSI was above 85. In this case a slight delay on the entry might be prudent.

The RSI, however, can play a much more important role when the ADX is flat or declining. In this case the rule would be that when the ADX is not rising we should postpone our entry until the RSI is below some more typical threshold like 45 or 50. Since the ADX is not giving us a signal that the trend is unusually strong we would need some additional indicator to show that the market has some minimal amount of upward direction. Otherwise we would not be buying a dip within the framework of an uptrend. Something simple like an upward sloping 20-bar moving average might work in this application.

Now that we have combined the ADX and RSI for our entries we might also want to combine them for our exits. When a market is rising but the trend is not particularly strong any spike in the RSI represents a good opportunity to take a profit. For example when trading in stocks the 9-bar RSI rising above 75 or 80 often signals that a correction is imminent. If the market trend is not unusually strong we would probably be happy with taking our profit on strength rather than waiting to get stopped out on weakness. However if the ADX is rising we might want to risk a correction in hopes of riding the trend even further. In this case when the ADX was rising we would ignore the RSI signal to take our profit. However, once our patience has allowed us to accumulate a very substantial open profit we might be best served by acting on the next RSI signal and nailing down the big winner. Also, when the ADX is rising it would not make much sense to be buying at a high RSI level and also selling at a high RSI level. We would be in and out of our trades almost immediately. Therefore we need to ignore the RSI extremes until our profit has had a chance to accumulate.

In summary, the important concept to remember is that our knowledge of the ADX can make the RSI a much more useful trading tool. When the ADX is rising the RSI tends to get overbought and it can often remain overbought for a surprising length of time. On the other hand when the ADX is flat or declining any spike to the upside in the RSI is an opportunity to nail down a profit. Conversely, any spike to the downside can be a potentially profitable entry point.

Here is the logic of a simple little system based on this discussion. (Just the rules in text form, you will have to do your own coding.) The parameters selected have not been tested or optimized. For example the 20-day moving average is just a number I picked out of the air. This is enough information to get you started and you can vary the rules to make the system trade over whatever time frame you prefer.

[Qone0]

That kinda makes the market a big game of chicken. Who will buy the top?

I see CNBC is touting QE3 as possible trying to suck in as much retail money as they can before the music stops.

The weak daily MACD cross today is saying something I think.

RSI and ADX are spreading apart on this wave up. They should run together in trend to tops and spread apart at bottoms.

That is saying something also.

[TREND1]

Q
Pimco’s Bill Gross said on CNBC.COM that markets look 3 to 6 months a head. So QE2 should be done (Market wise) by March.IMHO.

[Qone0]

The Fed will begin a tightening of monetary policy after its quantitative easing program ends in June, with a gradual increasing of interest rates by the end of 2011 and into the following year, according to Deutsche Bank’s Joe VaVorgna.

With the second leg of the Fed’s QE program to run out in June, after it purchases another $600 billion of Treasurys to expand its balance sheet to nearly $3 trillion, it will then be faced with a tough choice of how to proceed.

Investors will be watching the move closely.

Nomura Securities’ Bob Janjua estimated earlier this week that QE2 has been responsible for 250 points of the S&P 500 rally since late August 2010. Pimco’s Bill Gross also attributes a chunk of the stock market gain to the Fed, putting the impact at 4,000 Dow points since it started intervening.

LaVorgna, Deutsche’s chief US economist, lays out his expected timeline:

As QE2 runs its course in June, the Fed at its June 21-22 meeting will announce that it will let its mortgage-backed securities run off its balance sheet and will not reinvest the proceeds in Treasurys, as it has been doing.

The Aug. 9 meeting will see a move toward reverse Treasury repos of about $500 billion that will allow the Fed to start unwinding its positions in government debt.

After the Sept. 20 meeting, the critical “extended period” phrase will be notoriously missing from the Fed statement, signaling that the QE end is near. The central bank has been including “unusually low for an extended period of time” in all its statements since the initial QE began.

Following the Nov. 2 meeting, the Open Market Committee will signal a tightening bias and will supplement the reverse repos with term deposits.

The Dec. 13 meeting will see the Fed raise rates on interest on reserves to 0.5 percentage point, a signal that the current rate structure is coming to an end, with the result being that the funds target rate will move from its current zero to 0.25 percent range to 0.25 to 0.50.

From there, LaVorgna expects a series of quarter-point rate hikes as the Fed will be forced to tighten to keep up with economic expansion and, presumably, inflation.

Even though rates will start rising, LaVorgna says, “policy will have considerable room to tighten before it approaches anything considered “normal”, let alone neutral.”

[Qone0]

The daily MACD 12 26 9 should crossover tomorrow. the last two daily MACD crossover up resulted in gaps that extended.

Call it the power of ben.

The 60 min TNA chart is long at 74.64

The 120 min chart will be long TNA in 3 min.

[Qone0]

Caution with short positions here. Daily MACD is close to crossing up and the divergence of RSI and ADX is indicating a bottom has been put in.

[Qone0]

Trend, you give up easy, have you forgotten how RSI 2 60 min traded the uptrend?

I've got a stubborn streak..lol..I'll figure out how to set it for all markets if it kills me.

The 120 min chart is long TZA @ 14.37

[TREND1]

Q
I am still using TNA_60 and TZA_60
Have given up on RSI(2)
Now wait for a Lower High (LH)
and enter at BUY STOP.

Price crossing above LH = trend is up. Get on.

Also asking snoot for help
as to direction and price of SPX

snoot says open down 2/2/11 and SPX target 1298
see
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=19922

[Qone0]

The 60 min chart is working on it's 3rd loss in a row.

The system does not handle choppy markets well at all. It needs a trend.

The 120 min chart is working on it's 3rd win in a row at a 7% profit exit. I find that interesting.

[TREND1]

Y
YES. I did trade TZA. But got out too early.
Thanks again for the book by Trader Vic.

[Qone0]

Can RUT see the future? Looks like it is 7 days ahead of SPX.

[Y worry Murray]

I didn't notice that the trend line had shifted, it should appear as follows:

[Y worry Murray]

Nice charts TREND1, did you make the trades live? Here's my daily ES chart, I think it requires no explanation.

[TREND1]

Q
Take a look at yellow CHARTS TNA_60 and TZA_60
on this board
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=19855

[SilverSurfer]

Barry can see WASHEDUP, CALIFORCLOSURE, BROKLHAOMA and all the way to HORRIDA & DRAIN


But it will be OK,, Ben can just bail them all out further diluting the dollar...

[Qone0]

Standing aside with the 60 min chart until the markets set into a smooth trend again.

Trades will now only come off the daily chart of RSI 2 and horizontal support and resistance points.

The reason for thia is the corrections are much more choppy than uptrends. The 60 min chart will not trade them as well as the daily.

[Qone0]

Looks like it was a good thing I didn't see it.

I believe we are now in down trend.

[SilverSurfer]

I accept your appology
;^ )

[Qone0]

There was a TNA 60 min buy signal at 75.12 today.

I was daytrading using IWM charts today. It didn't show up on IWM.

Sorry for the delayed post.

TNA is 74.78 in AH right now.

[Qone0]

sold TZA 15.06 2% profit.

TNA is close to hitting set up on the 60