TRADING 04 FUTURES

[MB3]

Not so at all.I like your setups.U are very knowledgeable

[TREND1]

MB3
What I think is not important.
What do you think ???

[MB3]

Either up or down.Is that the answer u are looking for!

[TREND1]

MB3
Before you go to sleep, where do you think the market is going ?

[MB3]

Thank u very much for the explanation.Now I understand your trends!Have a good night

[TREND1]

MB3
I am a trend follower.
On the chart below
1 Major trend is Down
2 Minor Trend is UP
3 Money Wave is Over Bought.

One of these days we will make a Lower High.
This will lead to a down wave.

Then we will see what happens.

Or
The simple answer = DO NOT KNOW !!

[MB3]

Trend do u see us going higher on the S and P even with the bad data that came out today?

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -9

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened slightly higher at SPX 1363. The SPX had closed at 1362 on friday. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 1361, rallied to 1366 - a new rally high, then began to pullback. At 10:00 Construction spending was reported higher: +0.9% vs +0.3%, but ISM manufacturing was reported in contraction mode: 49.7 vs 53.5. The market continued its pullback until about 11:00 when the SPX hit 1356, and then tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX made it back to 1366 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 18 ticks, Crude slid $1.25, Gold was off $1, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX rises at 1363 and 1313, with resistance now at 1372 and 1386. Short term momentum declined slightly from extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Factory orders at 10:00 then monthly Auto sales.

The market opened higher today, and made a new rally high at SPX 1366, before pulling back a moderate 10 points to SPX 1356. After that the market started to work its way back to the opening levels. The market is now at the highest level it has been since early June and is uptrending. SPX 1499 by year end? We shall see. A preliminary review of the worldwide indices now displays at least 65% in confirmed uptrends, and likely more after all the numbers are in. Considering there were no indices in confirmed uptrends just a week ago. The WROC buy signal, from two weeks before that, appears to be spot on again.

Short term support is now at the 1363 pivot, then SPX 1342/47. Overhead resistance would be at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is remaining overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive from under SPX 1330 with the swing point now at 1340. Best to your trading in the this holiday week!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

Here is one of the charts using Art Hill's Video
.
SPY_D

[TREND1]

Art Hill still longer term bearish.
see video
.
http://stockcharts.com/members/videos/20120702-1/

[TREND1]

Also note that $TNX is staying below 1.70
Current reading is 1.59
And latest econ numbers are not moving that number up.IMHO
see
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=77151292

[TREND1]

I read the SP FUTURE chart using Dow Theory.
Meaning simply highs and lows
Note the high was at 5AM
Also note we recently made a Lower Low
It has been awhile since that has happened.

[TREND1]

SPY_60
On the 60-minute chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke support with a gap down on Thursday morning, but filled this gap with a late surge above 132.50 in the final hour. Sometimes a failed signal is just as important as a signal. The bulls followed up on Friday morning by producing a big gap higher and resistance break at 134. Not only did Friday’s gap hold, but SPY also moved higher after the gap. The gap zone and broken resistance turn into the first support zone in the 133.5-134 area. RSI confirmed the breakout with a move above 60 and momentum is also bullish. The 40-50 zone now becomes support.

By Art Hill

[TREND1]

weekend update by tony caldaro (only part)

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend confirmation pending

After a thorough review of all the charts and indicators it is quite clear markets worldwide had an impressive week.

(1)Even though it did not show up in the final weekly numbers. In fact, 80% of the world's indices are in confirmed uptrends or nearing one.

(2)This is quite a shift from last week when not one international index was in a confirmed uptrend.

[TREND1]

$NYAD_LINE_W_8 YEARS

[TREND1]

If VOL_THRUST fails on Monday, it will be BULLISH sign for the market.IMHO

[TREND1]

$NYAD LINE

[TREND1]

friday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: market gaps up and keeps going, DOW +278

Overnight the EU apparently concluded their meeting with a plan to aide their distressed soverign debt issues without forcing austerity programs on those that meet their fiscal budgets. The EURO rallied 2% on the news and all other markets responded. Asian markets were +2.1%. European markets opened higher and closed +3.6%. US index futures were much higher overnight as well. At 8:30 Personal income was reported: +0.2% vs +0.2%, while Personal spending declined: 0.0% vs +0.3%. PCE prices were reported +0.1% vs +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1342 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1329 yesterday. Around 10:00 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 52.9 vs 52.7, and Consumer sentiment lower: 73.2 vs 74.1. The market continued to rally until 10:30 when it hit SPX 1356. Then after a small pullback to SPX 1353 by 11:00 the rally resumed. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1362 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +3.05%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude soared $7.15, Gold rallied $41, and the USD dropped.

Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought.


Last night the FED reported a decrease in the Monetary base, and today the WLEI was reported lower as well.

The market gapped up at the open today and never looked back. Quite impressive, and kudos to those that were expecting it. The rally, which may have been started by the strength in the EURO, flowed into most asset classes one would expect to see move in a "risk on" scenario. There may be some more important European developments, in the works, than what was announced last night.

The market started the day by gapping up to the SPX 1342/47 resistance zone, and then quickly went right through it. By 10:30 the SPX had already entered the OEW 1363 pivot range: 1356-1370. After that the market struggled a bit to make much more upside progress until near the close. In light of these recent market developments, and the many conflicting signals from various asset classes, we plan to take a look at the big picture for most asset classes in this weekend's report. And, of course, update the status of the US bull market. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: neutral to positive

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

Is this a bear covering rally ?
And when do you know it is over ?

Answer:
Have found over the years that bear covering rally
continues until there is no daily Higher High.
This works "most" times
And we are not there yet.IMHO

[TREND1]

TREASURY YIELDS SURGE, BUT FALL SHORT OF A BREAKOUT... With the big risk-on move today, treasury bonds are falling as money moves out of this safe haven. Treasury bonds and yields move in opposite directions, which means yields are moving higher. Chart 10 shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) surging above 16 (1.6%) and hitting some resistance at 17 (1.7%).
This is a key level to watch going forward. If this stock market advance is to continue, the 10-year Treasury Yield needs to break above 17. This would signal a continuation of the early June surge and open the door to further gains, which means treasury bonds would fall. Money moving out of treasury bonds would then become available for stocks.
Failure to break above 17 could question the sustainability of today’s stock market surge. Note that treasury market will be watching next Friday’s employment report quite closely.
by ART HILL
.


Chart below will update.

[TREND1]

Another GOOD video covering:

Fri, Jun 29 2012 12:10 PM ET

EU AGREEMENTS PUSH SPANISH AND ITALIAN STOCKS HIGHER
-- S&P 500 ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT LEVEL
-- ELLIOTT WAVE PROJECTIONS FOR WAVE-C IN $SPX

-- GOLD HOLDS SUPPORT WITH BIG SURGE
-- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE BOUNCES OFF 2011 LOW
-- TREASURY YIELDS SURGE, BUT FALL SHORT OF A BREAKOUT


By Arthur Hill

http://stockcharts.com/members/videos/20120629-1/

[VanWilder]

Is IAG forming Reverse Head and Shoulder here ???? Annotated would be sweet !!!!!

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=iag&ty=c&ta=1&p=d


THanks


Van

[TREND1]

Watching Today
VOL_THRUST
.

[TREND1]

IWM_D Jun 29, 2012 SPY Holds Support for a Fifth Time - FXE Set to Surge

Stocks ended mixed on Thursday as sharp rallies in the final hour paired losses significantly. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) still lost over 1%, but the S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) closed up .30% on the day. The nine sector SPDRs were mixed with four up and five down. With a strong open expected today, stocks will attempt to extend the bounce that started with the early June reversal.

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) can be seen zigzagging higher this month with a series of rising peaks and rising troughs. Key support is set at this week’s low, which is also near the 200-day moving average.

[TREND1]

Art Hill says one should determine the trend.
And just as important you should determine what would it take to change your mind about that trend.
With that in mind, let's take a look IWM_D via Wyckoff Method.

In the chart below is shown "ACCUMULATION:
(1) There is a SPRING.
(2) There is a BREAK OUT, but it lasted on 2 days.
(3) There is a PULL BACK, but most of it is with in the tan area (ACCUMULATION )
(4) There is also a MARK UP

TRANSLATION:
To take the bullish side there as to be another BREAK OUT
and prices have to eat away the over head resistance.
Can it happen?
YES.
But the current probability is low.IMHO

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: gap down opening - afternoon rebound, DOW -25

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported as expected at +1.9%, and weekly Jobless claims ticked lower: 386K vs 387K. The market gapped down at the open, for the second time this week, to SPX 1325 and slid to 1320 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1332 yesterday. After a rally attempt back to the opening level failed at SPX 1324 by 10:00, the market declined to 1315 by 10:30. Another rally attempt pushed the SPX back to 1320 by 11:30, but the market rolled over again. At 1:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120628a.htm. Then at 2:00 the FED released tomorrow's testimony today: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/martin20120628a.htm. At 2:30 the market hit its low for the day at SPX 1313, and then rallied sharply into the close. Just before the close the SPX hit 1330, and then ended the day at 1329.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost $1.75, Gold slid $17, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought yesterday, to slightly oversold today, and then rose to nearly overbought at the close. Tomorrow, Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment near 10:00.

Wild day! The market gapped down at the open, bounced around a bit while heading lower, then hit the OEW 1313 pivot. Just when the market looked like it was going to break down it rallied. The DOW took out its monday low during today's decline, but the SPX obviously did not. The short term OEW charts opened negative, then ended the day with a positive bias. Looks like the B wave rally from monday's SPX 1309 low is still underway.

Overall, the market remains between two OEW pivots: 1313 and 1363. Until one or the other is exceeded the medium term trend remains neutral.

Short term support again at SPX 1324/27 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance again at SPX 1334/38 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is nearing overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive with the swing point around SPX 1327. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: neutral - trading range between pivots

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

SPY_60 From art Hill
With a bounce off support from the mid June lows, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is nearing resistance in the 133.5-134 area. Resistance here stems from the 50-61.80% retracement zone, the wedge trendline break and last Friday’s high. Also notice that RSI entered its resistance zone (50-60). Even though the advance is rather steep, it could be a sharp rising flag with the Wednesday afternoon low marking first support. The 5-period EMA of StochRSI is above .80 and overbought. A move back below .40 would signal a downturn in the momentum of momentum (RSI).
.

[TREND1]

XRT_D
Of note, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) edged lower and did not partake in Wednesday’s advance. XLY was weighed down by weakness in retailers as the Retail SPDR (XRT) declined half a percent.
As noted before, the consumer discretionary sector is the most important sector for predicting economic performance and retailers dominate this sector.
A wedge break in XRT would be quite bearish for the sector and the broader market.

[TREND1]

wednesday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: market rebound continues, DOW +93

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +1.1% vs 0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1325, hit 1328 in the opening minutes, pulled back to 1324, and then hit 1332 by 10:00. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.9% vs -5.5%, and the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20120627a.htm. The market pulled back to SPX 1328 by 11:30, then rose to 1334 by 12:30. Another pullback followed to SPX 1329 by 2:30, but the market retested the 1334 high near the close and ended the day at 1332.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought today, after monday's positive divergence. Tomorrow, Q1 GDP at 8:30, estimates (+1.9%), and weekly Jobless claims.

The market gapped up at the open today, and then rallied to SPX 1334. This was a bit more than most of us expected, as the short term OEW charts swung slightly positive. But the market hit short term resistance in the SPX 1334/38 range and appeared to stall there. We were expecting a 4th wave up before a nasty 5th wave down. But now it appears the pattern from SPX 1363 to 1309 ended at either that low, or yesterday's 1310 low. We updated the short term count to display a Minor A at SPX 1309/10, and a Minor B underway now. Since Minor A was nearly a fibonacci 55 point decline. Minor B could rally 21 points, which it already has, or about 34 points to the SPX 1342/47 resistance range.

For the past three weeks this market has traded between the 1313 pivot range and the 1363 pivot range. Which has remained the initial support pivot and resistance pivot.

Clearly a breakout will support an ongoing uptrend, or a breakdown a continuing downtrend.

My comment: Tony does not know ....

The short term waves have been a bit difficult to decipher during this three week period. Short term support is now at SPX 1324/27 and then the 1313 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1334/38 and then 1342/47. Short term momentum pulled back some after reaching quite overbought. The short term OEW charts are now positive with the swing point at SPX 1329. Q1 GDP tomorrow morning may prove to be quite interesting. Best to your trading!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

TZA_D Vol Thrust
Will be watching at the close Today
.

[TREND1]

IWM_60 From Art Hill (will not up date)
.

[TREND1]

IWM_W Wyckoff looks clearer now.
A down week will make it very clear.

.

[TREND1]

Murray
I read and post Tony most days.

[Y worry Murray]

Thanks for posting the update TREND1, do you follow Tony C?

[TREND1]

tuesday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +32

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe open higher but closed down 0.1% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: 135.80 vs 134.08. The market opened higher at SPX 1317 and hit 1320 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1315 yesterday. Also at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 62.0 vs 64.9. A pullback followed to SPX 1310, a point above yesterday's low, by 11:00 and another rally attempt followed. By 2:30 the SPX had risen to 1324, then it pulled back to end the day at SPX 1320.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold slid $11, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum rose from yesterday's positive divergence to nearly overbought today. Last night the FED reported New home prices declined: $273.9K vs $283.9K. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, then Pending home sales at 10:00.

The market opened higher today, then nearly retested yesterday's low before rallying into the mid-1320's. During the advance the market neared slightly overbought. This fits quite well with the 1-2-3 count to SPX 1309 we noted yesterday. Today's rally would be wave 4. The largest rally after the recent SPX 1363 high was on FOMC day, (16 points). We counted that as wave 2. This recent rally has been 15 points thus far, (1309-1324), the second largest. We're counting this as wave 4. When it concludes the market could experience a sharp decline into the downtrend low. Should this pattern continue the entire correction, from May, could end in a large 3-3-5 flat.

Short term support is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1324/27 and 1334/38. The short term OEW charts remain with a negative bias, and the swing point is now around SPX 1329. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely resuming

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

RCKS
Gone for an hour to Peets.

[TREND1]

RCKS You bought TRIN to my attention.
below is chart using TZA and TRIN.
It works 100% TZA ups and downs.
.

[TREND1]

Duma You asked
"Do you think TZA is working so well because we are in a down market?"

Answer: YES

WYCKOFF said First you must determine the TREND.

see post on IWM

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=76950623

[Duma]

That is impressive results. Do you think TZA is working so well because we are in a down market? I need to watch this with you going forward.

Are you trading this system? Do you trade at the close or the open? I couldn't help but zero in on the 6/6 signal because of the big drawdown the next morning before the eventual small positive close. If one had been trading the next morning, the 10am to 4pm gain was impressive, 5.3%.

[Duma]

Appreciate your comment. I know the system is too simple for most but it is working good for me and fits my trading style. Most traders perfer very complex charts and lots of action. I perfer simple.

I got caught y with the gap down, but that is just part of the game. Take the hit and move on to the next trade. System has been generating 50-100% gain a year. But it does require checking the computer 6 times a day. I have been lucky lately with using stops to make the right trade when I had to be gone for longer periods.

[TREND1]

Duma
Just to let you know, have been working on your system
of using STO and RSI.
Below is just one of many charts
containing variations of your system.
YES Your system works.IMHO.
.

[TREND1]

MB3
Used indicators.
Used PRICE
used TZA

[TREND1]

SPX_D From art Hill
Jun 26, 2012 SPX Sets Up Test of 200-day as GLD Recoups Support Break


Stocks moved sharply lower on Monday with an extremely weak opening. The major index ETFs gapped down on the open, drifted lower throughout the morning and then edged off their lows in the afternoon. Even though selling pressure abated in the afternoon, buying pressure was certainly uninspiring and the gaps remained. All sectors were lower with the Finance SPDR (XLF), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Energy SPDR (XLE) falling over 2%. The defensive sectors (XLV, XLP, XLU) held up the best and had the smallest losses. Taking a long-term and institutional perspective, the S&P 500 is setting up for another test of the 200-day moving average in the 1300 area.

[MB3]

Question.How did you get TZA to appear at the bottom?

[442 oldsman]

TREND1, Thanks bookmarked.

[MB3]

Kool

[TREND1]

S and P 500 Futues WOW! .... It auto up dates .
.

[TREND1]

TZA_D Next day TZA_D will have an UP CLOSE
WORK IN PROGRESS ....
Well it has worked 7 times in a row...so far.
.

[TREND1]

IWM_D Break RRC to the down side
.

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: decline resumes, DOW -138

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.8%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1325 and headed lower. The SPX had closed at 1335 on friday. At 10:00 New home sales were reported higher: 369K vs 343K. The decline continued, will small 3-4 point rallies along the way, throughout the morning. Then around noon the SPX hit 1309 and tried to rally. With a short term positive divergence in place the market managed to make it back to SPX 1317 by 3:30 before fading into a 1314 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.00%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude lost 80 cents, Gold rallied $10, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller at 9:00 then Consumer confidence at 10:00.

The market gapped down at the open for the first time since last monday. Then the market dropped through initial support at SPX 1324/27, and continued lower until hitting about midway between the 1313 and 1303 pivots. This set up a positive divergence on the hourly charts and the market tried to rally. Short term, we can count a 1-2-3, or abc, into today's extremely oversold lows. A bounce back into the mid-1320's would not be too much of a surprise.

Initial short term resistance remains at the SPX 1324/27 area and then 1334/38. Support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence. And the short term OEW remain with a negative bias and the swing point is now around SPX 1332. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely resuming

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp