cta, we'd need to check the tape to know for sure, but actually i was watching the close very carefully and the data on stockcharts.com and profitspi both appear to be wrong. the real closing price imo was 30.49.... i have no idea why the closing price would have been off for UYG today.
all this said, i agree the calls are a compelling strategy.
I agree, it's got plenty of benefits once you start looking deeper into it. As you said, one bank can get hit with something negative and as long as it's not across the board on financial plays, the rest can possibly pull you through unharmed.
I will most likely be looking at options on UYG tomorrow
UYG closed at 29.78 which gave it a 11.70% gain, not bad at all but the April 30.00 calls closed at 3.30 which put them up 57.14% over yesterday's close.
To put that in perspective, I would have made 117.00 for every $1000 I had used to buy the stock
Had I owned the calls I would have made 114.00 for every $200.00 I had put in april 30.00 calls.
Almost like playing penny stocks except the action is based on a well established play.
i favor UYG as a longer term play (on a clear signal of a turn in the financials) because it's diversified in what might otherwise be a minefield of individual stocks. for instance, the "other shoe" might drop on any one of these banks due to CDOs, etc. but i also like UYG's double leverage.
maybe we can make a longer term study of this situation, because loading the bottom of UYG and riding it back to the top on a rebound out of the recession could be incredibly lucrative.
Thanks, there's some super nice looking plays in that mix, especially if the rally is sustained for a couple days. I figured it was well worth the time to put it together as many that looked or will look at UYG won't look much further than the chart of the fund. I also wanted it for a quick reference tomorrow where I can look at all the major players without having to pull up each individual chart.
very good work --- this post is a keeper. thanks!
Charts of UYG's top holdings
Thought this was interesting when I started looking through them, several nice looking charts in the mix that should do very well IMO Most all of them have a pinch to some degree as well.
Sorry about the length of this one but wanted to get full charts in.
BAC (Bank of America)
JPM (JP Morgan Chase)
AIG (American Intl Grp)
WFC (Wells Fargo)
GS (Goldman Sachs)
WB (Wachovia Corp)
BK (Bank of New York Mellon Corp)
USB (US Bancorp)
HURN pincher repost of annotated chart
This one is looking too good not to bring it back to the front, IMO this one is just about ready to launch and do it in high fashion. Keep in mind the annotations are from over a week ago, I thought about redoing it but not enough has changed to justify the added time to do it
lol... very true. especially in a bear market... ;)
I wouldn't be surprised to see the feds do that, it would actually be the smart thing to do as most investors forget all about yesterday's news as soon as the opening bell rings
Duplicate post, marked as such as I normally don't like to delete posts
barring unforeseen events, UYG is probably a cake walk to $35 and we'll see what catalysts are in place for a push beyond once we get there. i'm thinking the fed is going to place some tidbits of info strategically along the market's path as it trends higher.
UYG definitely looking good, SPY and QQQQ also trading above HOD after hours, good signs indeed
indeed, and especially if the fed has a few more tricks up their sleeves to juice the market. we could be in for a very nice ride. UYG hitting highs in AH. good luck!
I think we will be good for at least another day or two. I believe there is a good chance of the green to carry into tomorrow
UYG... very bullish. this one is going to be a multi-day runner if the econ news stays positive. jmho.
this most recent fed move is going to really pump a lot of liquidity into the mortgage markets, so i'm in UYG pretty heavy at the $28 level.
I agree, we have gotten the bounce but it looks to me like everyone is still afraid to jump in as they are fearful it won't last. Those that jumped up this morning just seem like they aren't getting the normal action they would. IMO the rally won't hold for lack of investor confidence in the markets right now. IMO it will take several green days back to back to get investors to start feeling a bit more comfortable. Even if those days are just small steps up it will help.
cta751, excellent call. the futures sure indicate a major bounce today, but my feeling is whatever rally we get will probably be sold off eventually in UYG -- unless something significant changes in the credit market.
good luck out there today..!
I found this last night, can't help but wonder what's up with the big gain yesterday. SCA is a bond insurer just like ABK and MBI who both took huge hits yesterday. I'll be keeping a watch on this one as well. It's priced very attractively right now but it's also got a huge risk that comes with it.
Double bottom here or is it going to do what it recently did when it was close to a double bottom and fell to new lows?? I sure don't trust any financials right now in any way. I got shook out of my 70.00 puts for about a 10% gain back at the first of march when it started giving off higher lows, had I only held them I could have turned an easy 100% gain on this one. It's definitely one that I'm watching closely.
I agree, looking at the chart it does look like UYG has some more downside to it. On the other hand, as bad as everything did yesterday I'm not putting a whole lot of weight on that last candle. I looked at so many charts last night looking for anything that did well and there just weren't very many out there that had a green candle for yesterday. I almost look for many of those that took a beating yesterday to have somewhat of a bounce today. I could be wrong on this but my gut tells me that people will be bargain shopping today and that could spur some gains on many plays today. On that I don't look for big gains in any way as investor confidence has been rattled in a big way.
UYG chart ~~~>
no double bottom here. looks to have a lot more downside imo.
YGE, down another 13.73% today, I don't know why I don't listen to myself sometimes. Called this one as a short play in the 22.00 area, down to 13.19 at close today
Link back for chart
NTLS had another good day as well. Up 7.1% since chart was posted on 2/29. I look for more out of it over the coming days and weeks as well.
Link back for chart
HURN still making gains, up 2.00 since first post. Chart still looking good, a couple indicators have flattened a bit more than what I would like to see but I still believe it will continue well over the coming days and weeks.
Link back for chart
DY Annotated chart
Insiders buying it up, CEO spent over 1 million in shares over the last two days, 60,000 shares yesterday morning and another 60,000 this morning. Other officers purchasing as well. Very good sign IMO
DY Insiders Purchases link
Closed .05 off high of day with the last two prints of the day being larger orders
Chart looking good here IMO
BIG news and Chart
6:00AM Big Lots beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus; guides FY09 EPS above consensus (BIG) 17.38 : Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.93 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the First Call consensus of $0.84; revenues fell 99.1% year/year to $1.41 bln vs the $1.41 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.30-0.35, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.26 consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.70-1.80, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.53 consensus.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart
Looks to me like we may be getting close to a turning point with the markets. Plenty of good buys out there as almost everything has taken a beat down for the last four days in a row.
Strategy for tomorrow and Thursday, find some nice plays that are oversold then act accordingly when the markets show indications of the turnaround.
COIN was on one of most most successful scans and pointed out on 2/5/08. Today it even past my target price. The only bad part is how long it takes for these to develop. But I think this scan may be a great thing for what we are doing with the options!
In the future I will post these plays on the new board. Link back for the original chart and then come play with us on:
FCN showing tremendous strength here to hold above the upper bollinger like it did today.
Link back for news and chart
NTLS had a small pullback if you want to call it that, chart still looking strong on it, I'm looking for more gains here as well.
Link back for chart and news
To all board members.
I will be moving many of my strategies over to bobby's new board however I plan to continue with this board for awhile if I can keep up with both of them. Feel free to join us there for what I believe is going to be a great board with some extremely nice ideas and strategies on how to play big board stocks and make big bucks from them.
Big Board Toolbox link http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=12050
I plan to use this board for general posts and updates as well as charts from scan picks etc. focusing more on lower dollar plays on the big boards that offer great potential. I am increasingly loving options more than long and short trading as I am finding my risks are limited and the rewards can be and have been huge.
As always I will remain open to ideas here on this board as I believe it will still be a great outlet for big board plays.
Now I think we're onto something. But after this post I will be moving all my info to the other board. I would like to invite everyone to follow us to a brand new board where we plan on discussing the tools used for making huge gains.
The only thing I was really worried about with these smaller pinchers is the open interest. You see we have to be able to sell our contracts when we want to sell. Some of these pinchers may only have a few hundred open interest contracts at any one time. Our gains will suffer if we can't get out. Liquidity is the mane of the game here.
In the casr of HWAY, we may not have had a problem since I see the March contracts you spoke of had about 1500+ contracts of "open interest." We need to take these gains in small bites.
I say take no more than 10 contracts at any one time no matter how attractive. I have noticed that the gains for us have been 10 fold compared to the pure stock play. If we are looking for 3%-5% gains on a stock play, we should be looking for 30%-50% gains on the option play.
What is really needed is a risk management system. When I play a pure stock play I am willing to risk one dollar but I better have a targeted reward of $3 or better! If not why would I risk it? There are better opportunities than thos that pay less than a 3:1 ratio!
It's funny that you brought up HWAY. I was tied up with AAPL and making huge gains when HWAY dropped like a stone. When it was in the $28 range I wanted in but had so much tied up with AAPL and I had all of my attention watching it. It was the right decision but never stops me from being greedy! LOL
On the flip side, RHD was set up the same way as HWAY. I did get in on that falling knife! OUCH..... I lost a little too much on that one. I should have waited for it to reach bottom and come back with a green day before looking to get in. Bottom line is that as long as each month my portfolio is getting greener we are working in the right direction.
I am off to the "Big Board Toolbox." See ya there!
Market prognosis........Part 2
The boys i picked this up from are very good daytraders. They are both leery of going short on this market due to the wild intraday swings and have no patience to sit in a stock more than a couple hours. They both recommend lowering the size of stock in any trade so u dont get bit hard either way and preserve capital by limiting losses and taking gains quickly.
With that said, im thinking possibly a good strategy is using a spread, probably Aprils call & puts above and below to capture the volatility on the ups and downs. Short term it seems as if the market is now intent on testing the January lows however i wouldnt bet that it comes roaring back anytime soon. This strategy might give us the time needed to cash in on both calls and puts.
Im interested in what u think Bobby........lay it on us.
Market prognosis.........Part 1
I cant claim credit for this, picked it up elsewhere but after i looked at the chart i noticed it too. February has been trading in an ever tightening wedge, making the market tough to pull any profits, whether u are long are short. Today it broke out of the wedge to the downside.
BE Bearing Point $1.62
I played this one back at end of Jan, beginning of Feb for some nice gains. Look for this one to erupt without warning as it was starting to rise then last two days pushed it down a bit. IMO as soon as we get a green day it should be game on for this little stock.
They are turning billions, yes BILLIONS in revenues and have 2.06 in cash per share with 207,852,000 shares issued and outstanding. That gives them 428.13 million cash on hand
If they were get their management in line they would be extremely impressive IMO.
Looking back over news from past week, there is a lot to digest.
FCN Chart $63.50 up 13.64% today
Another consulting firm. I'm thinking this is going to be a hot little sector with the current credit crisis.
FTI Consulting Shares Hit New High
Friday February 29, 6:31 pm ET
FTI Consulting Shares Rise After Analyst Notes Continued Strong Demand, Raises 2008 Estimate
FCN Story Link from after hours today
CTA and I debated this one a good while Thursday nite. Trading near its 52 week highs and trying to break out the top. Its an ag play, probably the hottest of sectors at the moment. I would have liked to see it minus the 300 point down day we had. On the other hand, this little pull back may be just what it needs to make the final push up. Any guesses???
Oh I'm sure I will remind you a couple times as I will most likely be playing it one way or another, plenty of room for it make some more gains.