ALL AIRLINES

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$WTIC ABOVE $32

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Just heard on CNBC AAL cancelling 649 flights on the east coast. Due to the winter storm.

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Could this hurt the airlines ?

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$WTIC above $30

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crude oil futures 5 min . hourly , daily , weekly


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=110697562

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DJUSAR 30 D W M PF

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!WTIC = OIL = WOW BREAK OUT = UP

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!WTIC = OIL = WOW BREAK OUT = UP


[img]stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=!WTIC,PWTADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20][J403719060,Y]&r=348&pnf=y[/img

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BIG 4 PF

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DJUSAR D

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Chart 4 shows the DJ Airlines Index also in danger of rolling over to the downside
By John Murphy

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UAL D

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AAL D

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From: Les
US shale oil's crash diet likely to bring forward output dip
By Anna Driver and Terry Wade

HOUSTON Mon Feb 23, 2015

uk.reuters.com

In the old days, producers felt compelled to pump in a downturn, fearing competitors with wells in the same reservoir would take the oil. That is no longer a risk as shale is locked in rock.

"(Now) you can leave it in the ground. In the old days you had to produce because everybody was sucking on the same straw," Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, said at a conference in January.

Already, many companies have announced 25-70 percent reductions in drilling and a total of at least $25 billion in spending cuts.

Some went even further. Magnum Hunter Resources Corp has halted all drilling and told services firms it will not resume work unless its costs fall 40 percent, the company's Chief Executive Gary Evans told a conference in Houston.

Such pullback, combined with shale well decline rates of some 60 percent or more a year, has Evans predicting U.S. production will begin falling "in the next two months."

His view is largely echoed by several other executives, though they say their own output will hold up or rise and expect much of the decline come from the shuttering of older, low-yielding wells known as strippers.

Assuming that many drilling contracts will be carried out, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) still sees output climbing early this year to peak at 9.42 million barrels per day in May, with a decline starting in June.

[TREND1]

ART HILL MESSAGE ON AIR LINES
MAY NEED SC EXTRA

http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20150223-1.html

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AAL D BY ART HILLChart 3 shows American Airlines (AAL) breaking out to new highs with a gap in late November. Yes, you know what is coming next. This new high means the long-term trend is up and declines are viewed as corrections within this bigger uptrend. The gap zone held from December to February, and the stock held above the broken resistance zone. AAL turned up last week and broke short-term resistance at 50.

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DLUSAR D

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*****MUST READ****RPT-EXCLUSIVE-U.S. airlines disclose details of bookings lost to Gulf carriers
February 11, 2015
07:00 AM ET
Reuters

Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. airlines have lost at least five percentage points of their share of flight bookings from the United States to the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia since 2008, due to fierce competition from Gulf carriers, according to data seen by Reuters.

More recently, U.S. carriers have seen an erosion in their share of bookings to Milan, according to a report the U.S. airlines sent to the White House and the departments of State, Transportation and Commerce. The 55-page white paper is not yet public.

The report says the combined share of bookings between the United States and the Indian subcontinent for Delta Air Lines , United Airlines and American Airlines has fallen to 34 percent in 2014 from 39 percent in 2008. The drop includes bookings on the airlines' joint-venture partners, such as British Airways and Air France.

In the same time, Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways have surpassed them. The Gulf airlines' share of that market has jumped to 40 percent from only 12 percent seven years ago, according to the report.

The report sheds light on the intensifying battle between the U.S. carriers and their rivals from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates since "Open Skies" agreements authorized commercial flights between those countries and the United States more than a decade ago.

The data shows that the Gulf carriers have eroded U.S. airlines' market share even beyond the subcontinent, although bookings to the region resulted in the largest revenue hit so far, Delta Chief Legal Officer Ben Hirst said in a telephone interview.

U.S. airlines and their joint-venture partners' share has fallen to 36 percent from 43 percent of the market between the eastern United States and Southeast Asia, according to the report. The region includes Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Gulf carriers, meanwhile, expanded their share of bookings to 13 percent from just 1 percent.

GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES

The U.S. airlines are stepping up efforts to persuade the American government to alter or terminate the Open Skies pacts.

The white paper, citing confidential financial statements from the Gulf airlines, alleged that their rivals have received subsidies from their home governments contrary to U.S. trade policy. The report says loans, tax exemptions and other support totaled more than $40 billion since 2004, which the Gulf carriers used to pay expenses that airlines typically must cover themselves, such as aircraft acquisitions.

"We fully expect the government to act on the evidence," Delta's Hirst said, adding, "From the U.S. airlines' standpoint, we're competing with (foreign) governments, not private businesses."

An official from the U.S. State Department said the agency was carefully reviewing the claims and coordinating with other agencies.

"The U.S. government takes seriously the competition concerns raised by our airlines," the official said in an email on condition of anonymity. "However, we remain committed to the Open Skies policy, which has greatly benefited the traveling public, the U.S. aviation industry, American cities, and the broader U.S. economy."

CHEAPER FARES

The report says the Gulf carriers could drive ticket prices down to a point where U.S. airlines could not afford to stay in certain markets, costing hundreds of jobs. They say government subsidies enable the Gulf carriers to buy planes and add capacity in excess of demand, forcing industrywide price cuts on certain routes.

But advocates for travelers say that slashing prices and improving service is precisely what Open Skies agreements are intended to do.

"From the passengers' point of view, they want as many choices as possible," said Erik Hansen, a senior director at the U.S. Travel Association, a non-profit industry group based in Washington.

Hansen said he had not seen the report and could not comment in detail on its findings, but added that Open Skies pacts have improved the U.S. balance of trade. He said a change would "send a message that the U.S. is willing to implement protectionist policies if just a few airlines protest."

Executives of the Gulf carriers dispute the U.S. carriers' charges that they have received unfair subsidies and bailouts.

"We have no problem with competition. In fact, we relish it," Emirates Airline President Tim Clark said in a statement last week.

The Gulf airlines are pushing to expand their reach. U.S. carriers have lost their share of bookings from New York to Milan since Emirates announced service there in 2013 as a stopover on the way to Dubai. Emirates' share has jumped to 19 percent since then, while the share held by U.S. airlines and their partners has fallen to 78 percent from 85 percent.

(Additional Reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Washington; Editing by Joe White and Jonathan Oatis) REUTERS

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From: Sam
Predictions from IEA for oil in 2015-2016--


Oil to remain around $55 this year: IEA
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Feb 9, 2015 8:12 p.m. ET

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Don’t be fooled: Oil prices might have staged impressive rallies over the past two weeks, but that could be it for this year’s price rebound.

In its “Medium-Term Oil Market Report” published Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said it sees Brent oil LCOH5, -0.79% averaging $55 a barrel in 2015, below even Brent’s currently depressed level of $58.

It only looks a little better for 2016, where Brent prices are expected to climb to $60 a barrel, before sneaking up to $73 by 2020, according to the IEA’s price assumptions derived from the futures curve.

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The oil paradox

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crude oil futures 5 min . hourly , daily , weekly

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RRG CHART OF ALL AIRLINES
note that they re moving in south to southwest direction
This is bad.
IF ASKED, WILL POST INSTRUCTIONS ON HOW TO READ THIS CHART
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MORE RECENT TREND OF DJUSAR

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EASY WAY TO SEE TREND DJUSAR

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AIR LINES GOING DOWN per Greg

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20 YEARS SPS,WTIC,LUV,DJUSAR,AAL,UAL

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RRG CHART
If you are standing on the planet OIL
You would see the air lines going by in a southwest direction
bearish for air lines relative to oil.

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oil vs air lines

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SUMMARY NOTE BIG GREEN FOR OIL

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USO=OIL=BY ART HILL

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SUMMARY NOTE BIG RED FOR OIL

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RRG CHART WEEKLY
SIMPLY = NORTHEAST AND GREEN=BEST
MOST=SOUTH =MAYBE UP MOVE IS OVER ?

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DJUSAR D WITH OIL

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UAL D WITH OIL

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SAVE D WITH OIL

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LUV D WITH OIL

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AAL D WITH OIL

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DJUSAR INDEX D

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DJUSAR,AAL,UAL 30 MIN

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GNP M VS AIL AIRLINES
NOTE THE AIR LINES (BOTTOM CHART) PEAKED 1.5 YEARS BEFORE GNP
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ALL AIR LINES PLUS HOTEL INDEX

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The Chartist RS January 29, 2015

RATED 1 AND 2 OUT OF 26

1 DELTA AIR LINES, INC. DAL 50.21 4.94 5.64 1.1400

2 UNITED CONT. HOLDS, INC. UAL 73.53 10.65 10.73 1.0075

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OIL which is important to all airlines
by art hill

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AAL 30