Great Stocks

[gfp927z]

Derf, WING also looks like a decent long term holding. Overbought after the big recent move, but the chart has a nice long term trajectory. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is another one on my watch list as a potential buy / hold. In the restaurant sector, I currently only own MCD and YUM, but Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is another nice long term stock.

So many stocks, it's like being in a candy store :o) But a lot of dogs out there too, probably 10 or 20 dogs for each decent LT stock.




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[fung_derf]

This seems like a smack your head moment as now this seems obvious, but almost every year, $WING hits a low in January, but goes on a run leading into March Madness. I need to add a calendar entry for next Jan. 1

[gfp927z]

Apple - >>> Justice Department files antitrust suit against Apple


Yahoo Finance

by Daniel Howley and Alexis Keenan

March 21, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/justice-department-files-antitrust-suit-against-apple-145514025.html


The US Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple (AAPL), alleging that the maker of the iPhone illegally maintains its dominance over the smartphone market by boxing out competing apps and devices.

Apple "has maintained its power not because of its superiority, but because of its unlawful exclusionary behavior," Attorney General Merrick Garland said at a press conference Thursday.

Apple said it would fight the lawsuit, which it said "threatens who we are and the principles that set Apple products apart in fiercely competitive markets. If successful, it would hinder our ability to create the kind of technology people expect from Apple."

A victory for the US in this case "would also set a dangerous precedent, empowering government to take a heavy hand in designing people’s technology," Apple added in its statement.

Apple's stock fell more than 4% following news of the lawsuit, which the Justice Department filed with 16 state attorneys general.

The filing sets up yet another confrontation between the US government and a Silicon Valley icon as the Biden administration tries to rein in Big Tech's power.

The Department of Justice is suing Google (GOOG, GOOGL) over antitrust allegations, while the Federal Trade Commission is suing Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (META) alleging they also violate antitrust laws.

The new DOJ lawsuit filed Thursday poses a major new threat to Apple's various revenue streams.

Apple generates the bulk of its cash through the sale of its wildly popular iPhone, which accounted for $200.6 billion of the company's $383.3 billion in total revenue in 2023. But Apple's services and hardware that tie into the iPhone are also incredibly lucrative.

The company's wearables, home, and accessories business, which includes its Apple Watch and AirPods sales, generated $39.8 billion last year, while its growing services business, which includes subscriptions for things like Apple Music+ and App Store sales, brought in $85.2 billion.

The DOJ's suit comes just weeks after the European Commission (EC) fined Apple $2 billion for allegedly breaking competition laws in the bloc. The EC alleged the company illegally wielded its dominance to the detriment of its rivals in the market for the distribution of music streaming apps.

The Justice Department suit is just the latest headache for Apple, which is off to a rough start in 2024.

Shares of Apple are down 7% year to date as the company struggles with slowing iPhone sales in China, its third-largest market. Apple also lost its title as the world's most valuable company to rival Microsoft (MSFT).

How Apple allegedly wields power

At the center of the DOJ’s lawsuit is the iPhone, Apple’s most recognizable product.

The company harms consumers by making it more difficult for iPhone users to switch to a competing product and to access competing services, according to the government. The complaint also says Apple harms app developers by imposing restrictions on app creation and distribution.

That includes everything from text messaging to digital wallets to apps that reduce user dependence on the iPhone.

Garland, for example, characterized Apple’s iMessage as anti-competitive, saying that when it is used to text with a Google Android device, the iPhone user’s response is in green rather than blue. (whoopee)

That, he said, "limits functionality." The videos sent via text, Garland added, can also be pixelated and grainy.

He then quoted Apple’s CEO responding to a complaint from a user who said he couldn’t send his mom certain videos: "'Buy your mom an iPhone.'"

Apple, the suit alleges, also makes it more difficult for smartphone users to access competing digital wallets by blocking developers from using tap-to-pay functionality in their apps. And it prevents the Apple iWatch from working with Android smartphones while making it more difficult for someone with an iPhone to use a rival’s smartwatch. (too bad)

"Apple repeatedly responded to competitive threats," said Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, "by making it harder to leave, then making it more attractive to stay. The antitrust laws have something to say about that."

Apple, according to the suit, also suppresses cloud streaming gaming apps and denies consumers access to so-called super apps, which allow users access to a broad range of functionalities from a single interface.

The wide-ranging suit is "about the core unfair practices of Apple," Case Western Reserve University antitrust expert and law professor Anat Alon-Beck said.

"Apple systematically excludes rivals from the Apple ecosystem. By doing that, Apple is hurting so many startup businesses, stakeholders, customers, and, in my opinion, its shareholders."

As a result, she predicts that Apple's stock will "see more downward movement."

Apple's Epic battle

This is just the latest antitrust battle Apple has had to contend with in the US.

The last was in 2020, when "Fortnite" maker Epic Games sued the company and accused it of violating antitrust law by prohibiting third-party app developers from offering their own payment methods within their apps —as opposed to using Apple's payment service.

Justice Department lawyers were permitted to present arguments in that high-stakes dispute. It focused attention on Apple’s App Store — the only place consumers can download apps for iPhones and iPads, which generally charges app developers a 30% commission on paid app purchases made through the platform.

Apple scored a victory in that case when the appeals court upheld a California trial court's ruling that said Apple did not hold a monopoly in the market for mobile app stores.

However, in a minor win for Epic, the appeals court also upheld the trial court's ruling that said Apple must allow app developers to offer more ways for users to pay for purchases.

Both companies tried to take their fight to the Supreme Court, though the high court declined to take up either appeal.

Following that decision, Apple said it will allow developers to offer third-party payment options through their apps. However, the company said developers would still have to pay fees of either 12% or 27%, a move Epic CEO Tim Sweeney called "anticompetitive."

Apple is in the midst of reconfiguring its App Store payment system in the European Union. Under the EU's new Digital Markets Act (DMA), the company must allow EU customers the option to download third-party app stores and get access to third-party payment options.

Apple said it would address the measure and allow third-party downloads and payments, but will still charge developers a fee of 50 euro cents for each download if they cross the 1 million download threshold in a year.

Both Epic and Spotify objected to the measure, with Spotify CEO Daniel Ek calling the new rule "hostile."

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>>> Will Novo Nordisk Overtake Eli Lilly as the Most Valuable Healthcare Stock?


David Jagielski

Motley Fool

March 20, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-nordisk-overtake-eli-lilly-123000972.html


Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are the top two healthcare stocks in the world based on market cap. Their diabetes and weight loss medications are a big reason these have been among the best healthcare investments to own over the past few years. Today, Eli Lilly is the larger of the two companies, with a market cap of more than $700 billion. Novo Nordisk, however, isn't too far behind, sporting a valuation about $600 billion. And there are some recent catalysts that suggest that gap could shrink in the future.

Why Novo Nordisk could soar higher this year

Novo Nordisk stock is up 28% so far in 2024, and there are a couple of reasons it may become an even hotter in the weeks and months ahead.

On March 8, the Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk's weight loss treatment, Wegovy, for a new indication: reducing cardiovascular risk in obese or overweight adults. Up until then, the drug was only approved as a treatment for weight loss. The label expansion gives patients another reason to use the drug, which could result in more prescriptions and insurance coverage -- and thus, more revenue.

Novo Nordisk has also been working on a weight loss pill (Wegovy is an injectable) that has been demonstrating encouraging results in clinical trials, showing that it can achieve faster weight loss than Wegovy: 13% after 12 weeks versus just 6% with the injectable treatment. It was an early-stage trial but the data is promising nonetheless.

In 2023, Novo Nordisk's sales increased by 36% (when excluding the impact of foreign exchange) to 232.3 billion Danish kroner ($34.8 billion). Wegovy's sales of 31.3 billion Danish kroner soared by a staggering 420%. And with much more potential on the horizon with a new indication for Wegovy and it entering new markets, Novo Nordisk is nowhere near done growing. Having a weight loss pill in development that could be even better than Wegovy gives investors even more reason to stay bullish on the stock for the long haul.

Could Eli Lilly's stock struggle?

Novo Nordisk is more of a pure-play weight loss and diabetes investment, whereas Eli Lilly's business is much more diversified. And that diversification is one of the reasons the healthcare stock may stumble a bit this year. Recently, regulators delayed making a decision on Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's treatment, donanemab. While it's likely to still obtain approval, the stock fell on the news.

In addition to diabetes treatments, Eli Lilly's top five treatments for the last three months of 2023 featured a breast cancer drug (Verzenio) and psoriasis medication (Taltz). While weight loss is a big growth opportunity for Eli Lilly, with recently approved Zepbound just starting to generate revenue for the business, its operations are certainly broader than Novo Nordisk's.

Another reason the healthcare stock could face pressure this year is that it trades at a lofty 60 times forward earnings, which is based on analyst expectations of where its profits will be in the next year. By comparison, Novo Nordisk trades at a multiple of 39. With a much higher premium, there's more pressure for Eli Lilly to deliver on not just its weight loss and diabetes treatments but on its other drugs as well.

Will Novo Nordisk become the more valuable healthcare stock?

Over the past month, shares of Eli Lilly have fallen by about 3% while Novo Nordisk stock has risen by close to 7%. The gap is shrinking between these two companies and there's a possibility it narrows even more narrow later this year, depending on how these businesses perform.

I don't, however, expect Novo Nordisk to become the more valuable company. Eli Lilly is simply too strong, and with Zepbound in its very early innings of generating revenue and the approval of donanemab still a strong possibility, the recent pullback in price may only prove to be temporary.

Overall, these are two solid healthcare stocks and whichever you decide to invest in may ultimately depend on whether you prefer to focus on the broader and pricier business (Eli Lilly) or a slightly cheaper company whose priorities center around diabetes and weight loss (Novo Nordisk). But with stellar results and exciting futures ahead, both of these stocks can be great buys.

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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> NVO <<

Yes, a solid long term stock for sure. They are cleaning up on that weight loss drug (re-purposed diabetes med). I have a lot of the big pharma stocks because of their great long term charts, but big pharma is one sleazy sector imo. Of course the same can be said for many other sectors, like consumer (junk food), aerospace / defense (war industry), mining, energy, tech, finance, just about everything. I guess there's no way around it.



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[fung_derf]

Surprised you aren't talking about $NVO more

[fung_derf]

Looks like SMCI has found its current fair market price....

Supermicro Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock
March 19, 2024 11:44 PM Eastern Daylight Time
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Super Micro Computer, Inc. (“Supermicro” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: SMCI) , today announced the pricing of its previously announced underwritten public offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $875.00 per share. Additionally, the Company has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 300,000 shares of common stock at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The gross proceeds to Supermicro are expected to be $1.75 billion before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions and estimated offering expenses, and assuming no exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase additional shares. The offering is expected to close on or about March 22, 2024, subject to customary closing conditions.

The Company currently intends to use the proceeds from the offering to support its operations, including for purchase of inventory and other working capital needs, manufacturing capacity expansion and increased R&D investments.

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC is acting as sole underwriter and sole book-running manager for the offering.

The offering is being made pursuant to an effective registration statement on Form S-3 that was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on March 19, 2024. A final prospectus relating to the offering will be filed with the SEC and may be obtained, when available, by contacting Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282, Attention: Prospectus Department, by telephone at [phone] or by emailing [e-mail].

[fung_derf]

Not saying I agree or disagree, but.....

Prologis Inc (PLD $128.14: Downgraded to In Line from Outperform)
Shuffling Some Ratings
Analyst Steve Sakwa
Price Target $44.00
While PLD has very modestly outpaced the RMZ since the start of the year, a number of other stocks have materially lagged the index since January 1st and therefore the stock’s lower relative ranking along with limited upside to estimates, in our view, has prompted us to downgrade the stock from Outperform to In-Line. While YTD performance is in line with the index, since the investor day on Dec 13th, where management highlighted the drivers for long term growth including the opportunities on data centers, the stock is up 7.2% while the REIT sector is up 3.4%. While industrial demand continues to normalize across the US post COVID along with slowing GDP growth, PLD’s occupancy rate stood at 96.8% so far in Q1 vs 97.1% in 4Q but we don’t see any major catalysts near term for the stock even though our recent channel checks suggest that large e-commerce players are back in the market taking space. For example, there’s been more dialogue with customers on larger spaces (> 500ksf) as overall activity on larger boxes has picked up especially in S CA including the Inland Empire although the timing of lease signings remains uncertain. In addition, we don’t expect the company’s push into the data center arena to yield much upside in ’24 as this new growth initiative is more likely to grow FFO growth higher in ’26 and beyond. While occupancy at PLD is likely to be the lowest in Q1 vs. its full year target of 97%, we continue to like the long-term prospects of the company and the industrial sector especially as we continue to see the supply pipeline shrink. On the plus side, we expect PLD to deliver high single digit NOI growth and ~11% FFO/sh growth (ex-promotes) over the next several years similar to what was mentioned at the investor day given the significant mark to market opportunities that exist in the portfolio even with our assumption of market rent growth of -5% and -1% in ’24 and ’25, respectively. With that said, PLD is trading at 27x our projected ’24 AFFO estimate and roughly 23x our ’25 AFFO estimate so it’s hard to argue for further multiple expansion off the current levels and therefore meaningful upside in the stock price would need to come from upward estimate revisions.

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ADP, PAYX, BR - >>> 3 Stocks to Watch From a Growing Outsourcing Industry


Zacks

by Soumyadeep Bose

February 19, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-watch-growing-outsourcing-153300569.html


The Zacks Outsourcing industry has experienced significant growth, driven by various economic, technological and business factors. Key drivers include the pursuit of cost savings, access to a pool of skilled talent and the opportunity to focus on core competencies. According to a report by ReportLinker, the outsourcing sector is projected to see substantial expansion, with an estimated growth of $75.89 trillion between 2023 and 2027. This growth is expected to maintain a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5%, reflecting the industry's resilience and attractiveness to businesses seeking efficient solutions.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP, Paychex, Inc. PAYX and Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. BR can be considered by investors from the in-focus Outsourcing market.

About the Industry

Outsourcing involves delegating a company's internal operations to external resources or third-party contractors to enhance operational efficiency. Within the Zacks Outsourcing sector, you'll find companies that provide human capital, business management and IT solutions, primarily catering to small- and medium-sized enterprises. These services encompass a broad spectrum, including HR support, payroll management, benefits administration, retirement planning and insurance services. Certain firms excel in delivering business process services, with a strong focus on transaction processing, analytics and global automation solutions. This outsourcing approach empowers businesses to concentrate on their core competencies while external experts manage these critical functions.

5 Trends Shaping the Future of Outsourcing Industry

Rising Demand Environment: The industry has gained traction over the past year, thanks to the recent advancements in the field of technology and the onset of remote work. Revenues, income and cash flows have been growing in the past year, aiding many industry players to pay out stable dividends.

Continued Growth of Business Process Outsourcing (BPO): Most outsourcing activities occur at lower levels within the organizational hierarchy. Per Grand View Research, the global market for BPO reached a valuation of $261.9 billion in 2022 and is expected to witness a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2023 to 2030. The demand for these services remains high due to their advantages, including greater flexibility, cost reduction and improved service quality.

Relevance of IT Outsourcing: The IT Outsourcing market is projected to generate revenues of approximately $460.10 billion in 2023, with an anticipated CAGR of 11.07% from 2023 to 2028. The upside is expected to lead to a market size of about $777.70 billion by 2028. In the future, outsourced IT services will cover a wide range of functions, including programming and technical support. Organizations can outsource entire IT departments to cut costs and focus on core tasks. A significant driver of outsourcing trends will be the shortage of in-house engineering talent.

Rising Importance of Cybersecurity: Heightened public awareness and evolving cyber threats, like ransomware and national-level cyberattacks, have led to a growing demand for robust data encryption and cybersecurity measures. Companies prioritize employee security awareness training and breach detection systems to prevent cybersecurity incidents. To address these challenges, businesses increasingly turn to outsourced cybersecurity services to mitigate risks, maintain compliance and support scalability in their operations.

Emerging Technology Trends: Trends like the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are on the verge of reshaping the outsourcing sector. These innovations propel efficiency, foster innovation and bolster competitiveness, altering the delivery of outsourcing services and opening novel avenues for businesses to enhance their operational efficiency. For instance, IoT data can be collected, processed and analyzed in the cloud, enabling real-time decision-making and predictive maintenance for clients. By integrating AI and ML into customer support outsourcing, companies can provide faster, more efficient and consistent customer support while optimizing operational costs.

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Encouraging Prospects

The Zacks Outsourcing industry, which is housed within the broader Zacks Business Services sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #93. This rank places it in the top 37% of more than 250 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates continued outperformance in the near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than two to one.

The analysts covering the companies in this industry have been increasing their estimates. Over the past year, the industry’s consensus earnings estimate for the current year has increased 1.9%.

Before we discuss several stocks that investors may consider holding due to their growth potential, let's first examine the recent performance of the industry in the stock market and its current valuation.

Industry's Price Performance

The Zacks Outsourcing industry has lagged the broader Zacks Business Services sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year.

The industry has gained 13.5% over this period compared with 22.4% gain of the broader sector and a 23% increase of the Zacks S&P 500 composite.

Industry's Current Valuation

On the basis of forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E), commonly used for valuing outsourcing stocks, the industry is currently trading at 20.41X compared with the S&P 500’s 20.72X and the sector’s 26.21X.

In the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 30.82X, as low as 18.23X and at the median of 24.4X, as the charts below show.

3 Outsourcing Stocks to Consider

Here are three stocks from the outsourcing space with bright near-term prospects. Paychex currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while BR and ADP have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each.


Paychex is a prominent provider of integrated HCM solutions, offering payroll, human resource, retirement and insurance services tailored to the needs of small- to medium-sized businesses. Paychex exhibits strength, driven by robust revenue growth and its commanding position in the outsourcing market. The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the professional employer organization industry. At the same time, its steadfast commitment to consistent dividend payouts and share buybacks enhances investor confidence and contributes to earnings per share.

Paychex provided its fiscal 2024 outlook wherein adjusted earnings per share are expected to register 10-11% growth, up from 9-11% expected previously. PAYX reaffirmed its expectation of total revenues to register 6-7% growth.

Management Solutions’ revenues are expected to grow around 5-6%. PEO and Insurance Solutions revenues are expected to grow 7-9%, up from the previously guided 6-9%. Interest on funds held for clients is anticipated to be in the range of $140-$150 million. The company expects operating margin in the range of 41-42%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 revenues is pegged at $5.33 billion, indicating a 6.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $4.72, indicating growth of 10.5% from the year-ago reported figure. The estimate has been slightly revised northward in the past 60 days.


Broadridge Financial is a global fintech firm known for providing tech-driven solutions and investor communication services to banks, broker-dealers, asset managers and issuers, with a reputation for producing and distributing critical financial documents. Its robust business model, driven by growing recurring fee revenues and strategic acquisitions, positions it well for revenue growth, supported by a diverse product portfolio. Broadridge excels in implementing its growth strategy in governance, capital markets and wealth management, seizing opportunities in the tech solutions space, including digital, AI, cloud and blockchain, through acquisitions.

For fiscal 2024, Broadridge expects recurring revenue growth in the range of 6-9%. Adjusted earnings per share growth is expected to be in the 8-12% range. Adjusted operating income margin is estimated to be around 20%. Closed sales are anticipated between $280 million and $320 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 revenues is pegged at $6.54 billion, suggesting an increase of 7.9% from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $7.72, indicating growth of 10.1% from the year-ago figure. The estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days.


Automatic Data Processing is a top-tier provider of cloud-based Human Capital Management (HCM) technology solutions, offering global employers comprehensive services such as payroll, talent management, HR, benefits administration, and time and attendance management. By strategically acquiring firms like Celergo, WorkMarket, Global Cash Card and The Marcus Buckingham Company, the company sustains its dominant position in the HCM market, underpinned by a robust business model, significant recurring revenues, attractive profit margins, outstanding client retention and minimal capital outlays.

For fiscal 2024, ADP still expects revenues to register 6-7% growth. Adjusted EPS is expected to register 10-12% growth. The adjusted effective tax rate is estimated to be approximately 23%. Adjusted EBIT margin is expected to grow 60-70 bps, down from the previously guided 60-80 bps.

Automatic Data Processing expects Employer Services revenues to grow at a rate of about 7-8%, while PEO Services revenues are expected to grow 3-4%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 revenues is pegged at $19.15 billion, calling for a 6.3% rise from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings per share is pegged at $9.14, indicating growth of 11.1% from the year-ago reported figure. The estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days.

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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> CCOI <<

Yes, it fell through the 200 MA. The RSI is all the way down to 27, so near term oversold. It has a pretty nice 10-15 year chart, which has flattened somewhat over the last 4 years, but looks like it could be resuming the upward trajectory. It spiked way up in late Feb, then had the sharp drop, coinciding with the release of their Q4 and full 2023 earnings. Also it looks like the CEO had been selling shares last year and sold more on March 12. I only have 5 shares (bought at 67), so no biggie either way, but I figure the long term chart looks good enough to justify a small position

>> bull market reaching a peak <<

Looks like the market likely got ahead of itself over the last 6 months, lots of money on the sidelines needing to go somewhere. But now the Fed's % pivot may be delayed (to late summer?), so the market likely consolidates until there's more clarity.

The geopolitical factors remain a big wildcard (M. East), plus the election uncertainty, so plenty of unknowns. The Houthis claim they have hypersonic missiles, so plenty of landmines for the financial markets..

But longer term, lower % rates should provide a tailwind for the next several years. I figure a 25% stock allocation makes sense -- enough to participate, but below the ulcer / Tagamet threshold. If things really start to fall apart, the S+P 500 portion could be sold off to reduce the allocation.



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[fung_derf]

Well, CCOI is behaving about like I thought it might. Not all risks are equal.

I was talking with a golf buddy at lunch yesterday and he was talking about how his investment account is actually up in value from where he started, even though he's drawing income from it. So I asked him what he's invested in......not a clue. This is the kind of answers that make me nervous.....people have no idea what they are buying or why. This is a major sign of a bull market reaching a peak.....well that and a person who doesn't recognize that inflation has cost him far more than a drop in value.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> CCOI <<

I'm not that familiar with the stock yet, but saw this article (link below). The longer term chart also looks decent, and the stock recently dropped to the 200 MA, so I took a small position -


>>> Revenue Surge and Dividend Hike: Cogent Communications' 2023 Financials <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174009398



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[fung_derf]

Something very odd about CCOI. Doing nothing for years, has a huge spike in earnings, then projecting small gains going forward. All the while raising their dividend.
I guess it's up big on buying T Mobile's wireline biz? Then down bigger.
Too many variables for me.

[gfp927z]

Wireless tower REITS - AMT, CCI, SBAC -

>>> American Tower(AMT), one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of over 224,000 communications sites and a highly interconnected footprint of U.S. data center facilities. <<<

>>> Crown Castle owns (CCI), operates and leases more than 40,000 cell towers and approximately 90,000 route miles of fiber supporting small cells and fiber solutions across every major U.S. market. This nationwide portfolio of communications infrastructure connects cities and communities to essential data, technology and wireless service - bringing information, ideas and innovations to the people and businesses that need them. <<<

>>> SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) is a leading independent owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure including towers, buildings, rooftops, distributed antenna systems (DAS) and small cells. With a portfolio of more than 39,000 communications sites throughout the Americas, Africa and in Asia, SBA is listed on NASDAQ under the symbol SBAC. Our organization is part of the S&P 500 and is one of the top Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by market capitalization. <<<



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>>> Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI), through its subsidiaries, provides high-speed Internet access, private network, and data center colocation space services in North America, Europe, Oceania, South America, and Africa. The company offers on-net Internet access and private network services to law firms, financial services firms, and advertising and marketing firms, as well as heath care providers, educational institutions and other professional services businesses, other Internet service providers, telephone companies, cable television companies, web hosting companies, media service providers, mobile phone operators, content delivery network companies, and commercial content and application service providers. It also provides Internet access and private network services to customers that are not located in buildings directly connected to its network; and on-net services to customers located in buildings that are physically connected to its network. In addition, the company offers off-net services to corporate customers using other carriers' circuits to provide the last mile portion of the link from the customers' premises to the network. Further, it operates data centers that allow its customers to collocate their equipment and access the network. It serves primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, communications service providers, and other bandwidth-intensive organizations. Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

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[fung_derf]

I would LOVE to see you figure a tad better algorithm. Maybe adjust your RSI, or add that the company needs to have increasing annual dividends.
Something to make your list more manageable and hopefully find the stocks a bit sooner.
When I first started trading, I had a great criteria that I have long ago forgot to keep using. I think it was...

P/E under 20
Raises their dividend annually
Long Term Debt under 20%
Increased earnings of 10%+ annually.

Not sure this was it, but something like this. Interestingly, it only provided maybe 18 stocks? But they all turned out to be great ones.
I also recall following the AAA rated companies.....at the time there were 8. I just looked at there are now only 2....JNJ and MSFT.

More than 60 U.S. companies carried the coveted AAA credit rating from S&P Global Market Intelligence in 1980. And that dropped to just six in 2008. Since then, ExxonMobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), drugmaker Pfizer (PFE) and Automatic Data Processing (ADP) have all been downgraded.

Even the U.S. government lost its AAA rating in April 2011 from S&P. That's the last time the government struggled to raise the debt ceiling. It was since restored by S&P.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Yes, the list is clearly getting out of hand, but as a 'collector', I guess this trait carries over into stocks, lol. But the main stock allocation is in the S+P 500, along with a 50% allocation in bonds / T-Bills, and 10% in cash. So a pretty conservative asset allocation.

On the stock side, I figure a key goal to having so many stocks is to make it too big a hassle to sell, and thus encourage long term buy / hold. But you're right that it's impossible to follow so many stocks in depth, and this approach wouldn't work if the goal is to actively trade. In my case though, these are meant to be buy / holds. But it is getting to be excessive, close to 200 stocks, yikes.



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[fung_derf]

$HYLN will either turn out to be a SMCI play, or a total bust.....depending on how the industry goes.
Anyone who follows me here on IHUB knows I HATE penny stocks, so without my personal connection, I would never ever suggest it.

Now, to your lists.....it's too much. When I was young I tried to follow everything as well, but learned, if you are following everything, you're barely following anything.
Hone your list. (by the way, I had this same discussion with someone else today)....buy more of the ones you really like, and forget about missing out on others. Too many and you have yourself an average return ETF.
I just checked, I have 103 positions in stocks (not counting mutual funds and variable annuities), and I lose track of some. And, I have a lot more money in the market than you do.
If you are about creating income, then I'd say 80% should be focused on this (bonds, maybe a few preferreds, common stock dividend payers). 10% in speculative. 10% in cash.
I also use variable annuities to create my guaranteed income for life.
I know this isn't the board for advice, but I just see you posting about soooo many different stocks. You aren't seeing the forest through the trees.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Additional stock ideas are welcome :o) Thanks

Btw, here's my current expanded stock list (link below). The active positions are highlighted in red, and the rest are stocks under consideration. There are so many great stocks out there, I figure having small positions in a lot of diverse companies will effectively spread the risk around -


Elite Stocks -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Elite-Stocks-38031




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[gfp927z]

Derf, Thanks for the heads up on HYLN. Thinking back I remember them from their truck system, but they've decided to concentrate on their stationary distributed power system. Looks very interesting, and the technology works well with just about every type of fuel input. Concentrating on the stationary power market will help lower their cash burn, and they have orders coming in. The chart also looks interesting, so I picked up a small position. Should be a fun one to follow, thanks again :o)


>>> Hyliion Holdings Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2023 Financial Results


Business Wire

Feb 13, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyliion-holdings-reports-fourth-quarter-213000641.html


AUSTIN, Texas, February 13, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Hyliion Holdings Corp. (NYSE: HYLN) ("Hyliion"), a developer of sustainable electricity-producing technology, today reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financial results.

Key Business Highlights

Announced today, the KARNOTM generator is expected to qualify for up to a 40% tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act’s Infrastructure Tax Credit (ITC)

Announced today, Detmar Logistics executed a letter of intent for an initial KARNO unit to be deployed in the Permian Basin to operate on waste flare gas

Executed a letter of intent to provide KARNO generators to GTL Leasing

Confirmed plans to deliver initial KARNO generator units to customers in late 2024

Began printing production-intent design components of the KARNO generator

Successfully tested KARNO reactor technology on unprocessed Permian Basin gas; results surpassed emissions standards by 98% for CO and 76% for NOx

Appointed Govindaraj Ramasamy as Chief Commercial Officer

Announced $20 million Stock Repurchase Program

Ended the year with $291 million of total cash and investments

Guidance of $40 to $50 million cash expenditures for KARNO development in 2024

Executive Commentary

"I’m pleased to report that the company’s strategic shift to wind down powertrain operations and focus on our KARNO generator is on track, with significant achievements made in advancing our generator technology and engaging prospective customers during the quarter," said Hyliion’s Founder and CEO, Thomas Healy. "We expect to deliver the initial KARNO generator deployment units with customers late in 2024 followed by a ramp-up in production and additional deliveries in 2025."

KARNO Commercial Updates

Today, the company announced that, under the Inflation Reduction Act, the KARNO generator is expected to be characterized the same as a fuel cell, enabling customers to qualify for up to a 40% tax credit under the current ITC.

Hyliion is addressing the commercial power market first with a locally-deployable 200kW generating system which it intends to deliver to initial deployment customers in late 2024. To lead these efforts, Hyliion recently hired former Cummins powergen executive, Govi Ramasamy, as Chief Commercial Officer.

Hyliion also announced today that Detmar Logistics has executed a non-binding letter of intent for a KARNO generator and to be part of Hyliion’s early adopter program. Detmar, who supplied Hyliion with test gas from the Permian Basin, intends to operate their unit on waste flare gas to produce electricity at oil & gas sites, without the need for pre-treating the gas.

In addition to Detmar, Hyliion also announced a non-binding letter of intent with GTL Leasing to deliver two KARNO generators for their portable electric vehicle recharging business. Other customers’ letters of intent are in place or being finalized to represent the remaining planned deployments in 2024 and initial deliveries in 2025. Hyliion plans for initial deployments to represent a broad range of applications, including vehicle charging, waste gas fuel sourcing, and prime power generation.

KARNO Generator Development

Hyliion is developing a revolutionary new electrical generator powered by a linear heat motor that is expected to deliver step-change improvements in performance characteristics compared to conventional generating systems, including efficiency, emissions, maintenance requirements, noise levels and fuel flexibility. The KARNO generator is enabled by the latest advances in additive manufacturing technology. Hyliion hosted a Technology Fireside Chat in December 2023 during which Thomas Healy and Josh Mook, Chief Technology Officer, explained the capabilities and advantages of the generator.

Recent technological advancements include beginning to print production-intent design parts of the BETA design of the KARNO generator. The BETA generator design will go through validation throughout 2024 and then is expected to be ready for customer deployments later this year.

The company also tested unprocessed flare gas that was collected from the Permian Basin and confirmed the ability for the KARNO reactor to operate on this fuel, showcasing the fuel agnostic characteristics of the generator. Recent test results on this fuel highlight that the KARNO’s flameless oxidation process is expected to surpass current EPA Tier 4 emissions standards by 98% for CO and 76% for NOx with no additional aftertreatment or catalyst needed.

Powertrain Wind-Down

In November 2023, Hyliion announced that it was winding down its powertrain business segment to maintain the company’s strong cash position as it furthers development of the KARNO generator technology. The company intends to retain the powertrain technology, enabling it to explore future use or sale of the technology and tangible assets. Most wind-down activities are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024 while efforts to monetize powertrain assets and technology continue.

Financial Highlights and Guidance

Fourth quarter operating expenses totaled $32.6 million, compared to $31.6 million in the prior-year quarter as the company initiated powertrain wind-down actions. Fourth quarter expenses include $11.5 million of charges directly related to the wind-down, including employee severance, contract cancellation costs, and accelerated depreciation of assets.

Full-year expenses totaled $136.3 million, compared to $152.4 million for the full year in 2022. Expenses in 2022 include $28.8 million of one-time charges associated with the purchase of KARNO generator technology from GE. Cash expenditures for 2023 were $131 million, including net losses and capital investments. The company ended the year with $291 million in unrestricted cash, and short-term and long-term investments.

For 2024, total cash consumed by the KARNO generator business is expected to be between $40 and $50 million, down compared to $131 million in capital consumed by the company in 2023. This estimate excludes cash payments associated with the stock repurchase program, payments associated with the ongoing wind-down of powertrain operations, and cash generated from the sale of powertrain assets and technology. Hyliion expects to achieve commercialization of the KARNO generator with the capital on hand.

Projections for 2025 include growth of KARNO generator deliveries with proceeds from sales in the low double-digit millions of dollars. The company also projects gross margins to be approximately break-even or slightly negative and cash spending to grow modestly compared to 2024.

About Hyliion

Hyliion is committed to creating innovative solutions that enable clean, flexible and affordable electricity production. The Company’s primary focus is to provide distributed power generators that can operate on various fuel sources to future-proof against an ever-changing energy economy. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, and with research and development in Cincinnati, OH, Hyliion is addressing the commercial space first with a locally-deployable generator that can offer prime power, peak shaving, and renewables matching. Beyond stationary power, Hyliion will address mobile applications such as vehicles and marine. The KARNO generator is a fuel-agnostic solution, enabled by additive manufacturing, that leverages a linear heat generator architecture. The Company aims to offer innovative, yet practical solutions that contribute positively to the environment in the energy economy.

<<<



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[gfp927z]

>>> Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM), a natural resource-based building materials company, supplies aggregates and heavy-side building materials to the construction industry in the United States and internationally. It offers crushed stone, sand, and gravel products; ready mixed concrete and asphalt; paving products and services; and Portland and specialty cement for use in the infrastructure projects, and nonresidential and residential construction markets, as well as in the railroad, agricultural, utility, and environmental industries. The company also produces magnesia-based chemicals products; dolomitic lime primarily to customers for steel production and soil stabilization; and cement treated materials. Its chemical products are used in flame retardants, wastewater treatment, pulp and paper production, and other environmental applications. The company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.

<<<



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[fung_derf]

I had a sit down with the CEO in Austin. They've shifted their direction since, but I like his willingness to bob and weave.
Not a recommendation though by any means.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> HYLN <<

That does look interesting. Have you been following them for a while? I'll have to get up to speed on the company and their technology -

---

[fung_derf]

Yikes! That looks like a wild one.
Have we ever discussed $HYLN?

[gfp927z]

Derf, Here's an interesting microcap in the 'transportation innovation' space. It had a big move recently, then a big retracement, so I jumped in this morning with a tiny position. Israeli startups can be a very dicey area, but many of them end up being acquired by larger companies. In any event, this should be a fun one to follow -


>>> Rail Vision Ltd. (RVSN) designs, develops, assembles, and sells railway detection systems for railway operational safety, efficiency, and predictive maintenance in Israel. The company's railway detection systems include various cameras, such as optics, visible light spectrum cameras (video), and thermal cameras that transmit data to a ruggedized on-board computer that is designed to be suitable for the rough environment of a train's locomotive. It offers main line systems for the safety of train operations, prevention of collisions, and reduction of downtime; railway detection system for passengers and freight trains; shunting yard systems for shunting operations; and light rail vehicle systems for detecting and classifying obstacles. The company also provides rail vision big data services, as well as maintenance and predictive maintenance systems; and geographic information systems for mapping and updates. Rail Vision Ltd. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Ra'anana, Israel. <<<



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[fung_derf]

No. No faith in PANW at the moment. May bounce back up, or may break down. I'll just watch it I guess.
AVGO is one that I just lost track of. Had planned to buy it but forgot. Can't own everything.
Right now, if I'm gambling on one, I'm leaning toward a dividend payer.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Yes, WSO not only has a great long term chart, but also had a recent pullback close to the 200 MA, so looks 'close enough' as an entry point. I bought a small position today as a long term buy / hold. Not sure how I missed seeing the WSO chart before, but looks plenty nice as a buy / hold.

Just curious if you are following PANW? A fairly stable chart for the cybersecurity sector, though still a wild ride. I had some FTNT during the bug runup several years ago, along with several ETFs (CIBR, HACK, IHAK, BUG), but haven't gotten back in since. Missed the bottom, and now they look overextended, so will probably pass.

Looks like the AI stocks are remaining resilient after the big runup. I have small positions in NVDA, SMCI, PLTR, and also some semiconductor related stocks AVGO, KLAC, MPWR. The charts qualify as long term buy / hold, so that's the strategy, though the expanding Ai bubble is a risk.



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[fung_derf]

OK, now we're talking.....$WSO might be the first one I've seen you haven't posted too late. Currently $383, and above $395 would be a confirmed breakout.
Or better yet, wait until it pulls back to $340 or so and buy half position there.
Is there a watch list indicator here on IHUB?

[gfp927z]

Comfort Systems, Watsco, nVent Electric - >>> 3 Super Stocks Trading Near All-Time Highs That You Can Still Buy


by Lee Samaha

Motley Fool

February 21, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-super-stocks-trading-near-133100241.html


There's always a reason why stocks trade near their all-time highs, usually because they are firing on all cylinders. That's certainly the case with Comfort Systems (NYSE: FIX), Watsco (NYSE: WSO), and nVent Electric (NYSE: NVT). All three have excellent tailwinds behind them, making them attractive stocks for investors who like to buy high and sell higher.

Comfort Systems (FIX)

You can always find pockets of growth in an economy, even in the slowing one we have now. One such pocket is shown in the remarkable chart below. According to the Department of the Treasury, the spending boom is "principally driven by construction for computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing," partly encouraged by the CHIPS Act.

One way to make money from this trend comes from the mechanical and electrical contracting services company Comfort Systems. The company generates a third of its revenue from the manufacturing sector, with technology second at 21%. Given this exposure, it was no surprise to hear CEO Brian Lane say on the third-quarter earnings call in October, "Our revenue mix continues to trend toward data centers, life science, food and other manufacturing such as chip plants and battery."

Indeed, order strength led to the company's backlog rising to $4.3 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2023 compared to just $1.5 billion at the end of 2020.

If these trends continue, encouraged by ongoing demand for A.I. and semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., then Comfort Systems' strong run can continue.

Watsco (WSO)

The heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) equipment and parts distributor is one of those boring stocks that quietly goes on, generating stellar returns for investors almost unseen. The stock is up 1,560% over the last 20 years and 315% over the last decade, and has paid a dividend for 50 consecutive years.

It's an impressive record due to management's "buy and build" strategy. In a nutshell, Watsco is the leading player in a highly fragmented market for HVACR distribution characterized by myriad small local players serving localized markets. Its strategy involves expanding geographically by acquiring small distributors and improving its performance by adding products and technologies to the acquired distributors' offerings.

There's even more benefit to the "buy and build" strategy as Watsco continues to roll out technological improvements such as e-commerce-enabled websites, mobile apps, and digitized product information -- solutions making it much easier for technicians to order products from distributors.

Last year marked a year of consolidation following 16% sales growth in 2022 and 24% in 2021, as high levels of replacement demand occurred due to stay-at-home measures leading to high levels of equipment usage. It's an impressive result, and Wall Street analysts expect 6.4% growth in 2024. As such, Watsco can continue its remarkable track record of delivering returns for investors.

nVent Electric (NVT)

Alongside Comfort Systems and Watsco, nVent is another "boring" company that happens to deliver significant returns for investors. The electrical connection and protection product company's stock is up 135% over the last five years, driven by the electrification of everything trend.

The trend encompasses everything from AI and increasing demand for data centers and networks to electric vehicles and renewable energy driving demand for electrical installations. Industrial automation, smart buildings/infrastructure, and connected technologies require electrical installations, which means more demand for nVent's enclosures, fastening solutions, and heat tracing systems.

Led by an all-female CEO/CFO team, the company has attracted attention for its consistent record of beating and raising guidance. Management believes it's on track for organic growth of 3%-5% in 2024, with adjusted earnings per share up 4%-7% to hit a range of $3.17-$3.27. That may seem unimpressive, but consider that there's a headwind of $0.11 built into its guidance due to a change in tax standards. Without that, nVent would be heading for 7%-10% growth.

The electrification of everything trend is still in its early innings, and investors in nVent can expect many more years of growth from a company with an excellent track record of success.

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[gfp927z]

>>> nVent Electric plc (NVT), together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, markets, installs, and services electrical connection and protection solutions in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Enclosures, Electrical & Fastening Solutions, and Thermal Management.

The Enclosures segment provides solutions to protect electronics and data in mission critical applications, including data solutions. This segment also offers digital and automation solutions, system integrations, and global services.

The Electrical & Fastening Solutions segment provides solutions that connect and protect power and data infrastructure. This segment also offers power connections, fastening solutions, cable management solutions, grounding and bonding systems, and tools and test instruments.

The Thermal Management segment offers heat management solutions that protect people and assets. This segment includes heat tracing for freeze protection and process temperature maintenance and control; pipe freeze protection, surface deicing, hot water temperature maintenance, floor heating, fire-rated wiring, and leak detection; and heat trace systems, connected controls, remote monitoring, and annual service programs.

The company markets its products through electrical distributors, contractors, and original equipment manufacturers under the CADDY, ERICO, GARDNER BENDER, HOFFMAN, ILSCO, RAYCHEM, SCHROFF, and TRACER brand names. Its products are used for various applications, such as industrial, commercial and residential, infrastructure, and energy. nVent Electric plc was founded in 1903 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

<<<


https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVT/profile



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[gfp927z]

>>> Watsco, Inc. (WSO), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies. The company distributes equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment. It also offers parts comprising replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation materials, refrigerants, ductworks, grills, registers, sheet metals, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. The company serves contractors and dealers that service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. It operates in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Puerto Rico, as well as exports its products to Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Watsco, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

<<<



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[gfp927z]

>>> Comfort Systems USA Announces Acquisition


Business Wire

Feb 2, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comfort-systems-usa-announces-acquisition-130000094.html


- Acquires Utah’s J & S Mechanical Contractors, Inc. -

HOUSTON, February 02, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE: FIX) (the "Company") today announced that it has acquired J & S Mechanical Contractors, Inc. ("J & S") headquartered in West Jordan, Utah.

J & S was founded in 1976 and provides mechanical construction services to commercial and industrial sectors across the Mountain West region of the United States. J & S works on many of the largest and most technical construction projects in their region. Initially, J & S is expected to contribute annualized revenues of approximately $145 million to $160 million, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $12 million to $15 million. In light of the amortization expense, J & S is expected to make a neutral to slightly accretive contribution to earnings per share in 2024 and 2025.

Brian Lane, Comfort Systems USA’s Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We are extremely happy to announce that J & S is now a part of the Comfort Systems USA family of companies. J & S has deep roots and a strong reputation in Utah for providing extraordinary outcomes for its customers in industrial, institutional, and commercial markets. This partnership will increase our commitment to the vibrant markets of the Intermountain West, as J & S brings excellent expertise, capability, and leadership at all levels. J & S has earned its tremendous reputation and solid customer relationships thanks to its formidable workforce, and we are confident that the people of J & S will thrive as a part of our family of similar businesses."

Jack Jensen, President of J & S, commented, "We believe that Comfort Systems USA shares our core beliefs, including strong performance for our customers, growth and opportunity for our employees, and honesty and integrity in our daily business. We are happy to embark on this new stage in our development and we are committed to continuing to serve, innovate, grow, and thrive in both Utah and Nevada." Justin Barlow, Executive Vice President of J & S, added, "We chose Comfort Systems USA as the best answer for us to preserve our founders’ legacy of excellence and commitment to our community, while providing a bright future for our unmatched team members. We look forward to a strong partnership for our collective future."

Comfort Systems USA® is a leading provider of commercial, industrial, and institutional heating, ventilation, air conditioning and electrical contracting services, with 172 locations in 131 cities across the nation.

<<<



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[fung_derf]

A Houthi missile was just seconds from hitting a US warship. The Navy used its ‘last line of defense’

My son was stationed in that area for a couple years. You'd be surprised as to how many close calls there are.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Yes, looks like the market just shrugged it off. But objectively it's a good time for a money raise since the stock, sector, and market are up so much. The additional $1.5 bil will help SMCI keep up with the surging demand for their products, and with the Ai stocks zooming, everybody piled right back into the stock. SMCI only has $400 mil in debt (per Yahoo Finance), which is low compared to their $50 bil market cap. They also didn't reveal the pricing and other terms of the note offering.

But as you said, this market is starting to look 'meme-like'. With the Fed's first % cut not until June, and risks from the Middle East war increasing, I figure the market could be getting vulnerable. But lots of FOMO money coming in. Fwiw, I scaled back my stock allocation to 20%, and will hang with that. Nice to see some decent profits though :o) What worries me is a US Navy ship getting hit by a Houthi missile, which nearly happened several weeks ago -


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173895954


>>> A Houthi missile was just seconds from hitting a US warship. The Navy used its ‘last line of defense’


by Brad Lendon

CNN

February 2, 2024


https://www.yahoo.com/news/houthi-missile-just-seconds-hitting-062737193.html


<<<




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[fung_derf]

WOW!! How did this news not have a negative affect on the share price of SMCI?

Supermicro Announces Proposed Offering of $1.5 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029
Business Wire5:09 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Feb 21, 2024

Supermicro Announces Proposed Offering of $1.5 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> PANW <<

I've been following the Cybersecurity sector loosely, and had some of the ETFs (CIBR, HACK, IHAK, BUG) and FTNT back during the 2020-21 period. PANW has one of the better long term charts, but in recent months was priced for perfection. That's quite a drop today -- the RSI went from around 70 to 23 in one day, yikes. Looks like they beat on earnings, but forward guidance shows a change in strategy that will hit near term profits, and down she went -


>>> Why Palo Alto Networks Stock Crashed Wednesday Morning


by Danny Vena

Motley Fool

Feb 21, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-palo-alto-networks-stock-162612031.html


Shares of Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) turned sharply lower Wednesday morning, falling as much as 27%. As of 10:44 a.m. ET, the stock was still down 25.9%.

The catalyst that sent the cybersecurity specialist plunging was its quarterly financial report. While results were better than expected, the company announced a major change to its strategy that caught investors off guard.

Solid results

For its fiscal 2024 second quarter (ended Jan. 31), Palo Alto Networks' revenue grew 19% year over year to $2 billion, fueled by existing customers increasing their spending. This resulted in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that rose 39% to $1.46.

To give those numbers context, analysts' consensus estimates were calling for revenue of $1.65 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.30, so Palo Alto Networks cleared both bars with room to spare.

Total billings -- or contractually obligated sales that haven't yet been booked as revenue -- provide insight into the company's future growth potential, and there appeared to be trouble on the horizon. Second-quarter billings increased to $2.35 billion, up 16% year over year. When billings grow more slowly than current revenue growth, this suggests a potential slump in future sales.

A major strategic pivot

CEO Nikesh Arora revealed a major shift in strategy that caught investors off guard. The company will offer increased incentives, including free product offers, in a bid to get customers to adopt more of its products and services. The resulting uncertainty had some investors running for the exits.

In keeping with its plans, management slashed its guidance. For its fiscal third quarter, executives are forecasting revenue in a range of $1.95 billion to $1.98 billion, or year-over-year growth of 14% at the midpoint. The company also expects diluted adjusted EPS of $1.25. Even more troubling was projected billings of $2.33 billion, or an uptick of just 3% at the midpoint. This suggests a rapid deceleration in growth.

For fiscal 2024, management is forecasting revenue of $8 billion, up roughly 15% year over year. Palo Alto Networks expects total billings of roughly $10.15 billion at the midpoint of its guidance, which would equal growth of about 11%.

This is a major shift in strategy, and it remains to be seen whether management can pull this off, which is why the stock plummeted.

<<<



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[fung_derf]

Was it you recently suggesting $PANW? I notice it fell today all the way back to its support. May be a buy now that its down $100?
Earning projections to the future look good. Currently $268

Palo Alto Networks Reports Fiscal Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results
PR Newswire4:05 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Feb 20, 2024


Palo Alto Networks Reports Fiscal Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

PR Newswire

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Feb. 20, 2024



• Fiscal second quarter revenue grew 19% year over year to $2.0 billion



• Remaining performance obligation grew 22% year over year to $10.8 billion



• Non-GAAP operating margin grew 580 bps year over year to 29%


SANTA CLARA, Calif., Feb. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW), the global cybersecurity leader, announced today financial results for its fiscal second quarter 2024, ended January 31, 2024.

Total revenue for the fiscal second quarter 2024 grew 19% year over year to $2.0 billion, compared with total revenue of $1.7 billion for the fiscal second quarter 2023. GAAP net income for the fiscal second quarter 2024 was $1.7 billion, or $4.89 per diluted share, compared with GAAP net income of $0.1 billion, or $0.25 per diluted share, for the fiscal second quarter 2023. GAAP net income for the fiscal second quarter 2024 included a $1.5 billion net tax benefit from a release of the company's valuation allowance.

Non-GAAP net income for the fiscal second quarter 2024 was $0.5 billion, or $1.46 per diluted share, compared with non-GAAP net income of $0.3 billion, or $1.05 per diluted share, for the fiscal second quarter 2023. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP information is contained in the tables below.

"Our leadership across all of our three platforms and growing cross-platform adoption puts us in a strong and unique position," said Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. "With this backdrop, we are activating our accelerated platformization and consolidation strategy, as well as our AI leadership strategy."

"Our disciplined execution on profitable growth gives us the confidence to maintain FY'24 non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow guidance, while making significant additional investments in our platformization and consolidation strategies to accelerate our long-term growth trajectory," said Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer of Palo Alto Networks.

Financial Outlook
Palo Alto Networks provides guidance based on current market conditions and expectations.

For the fiscal third quarter 2024, we expect:


• Total billings in the range of $2.30 billion to $2.35 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 2% and 4%.



• Total revenue in the range of $1.95 billion to $1.98 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 13% and 15%.



• Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $1.24 to $1.26, using 347 million to 351 million shares outstanding.


For the fiscal year 2024, we are updating guidance and expect:


• Total billings in the range of $10.10 billion to $10.20 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 10% and 11%.



• Total revenue in the range of $7.95 billion to $8.00 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 15% and 16%.



• Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 26.5% to 27.0%.



• Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $5.45 to $5.55, using 345 million to 347 million shares outstanding.



• Adjusted free cash flow margin in the range of 38.0% to 39.0%.


Guidance for non-GAAP financial measures excludes share-based compensation-related charges, including share-based payroll tax expense, acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements, restructuring and other costs, non-cash charges related to convertible notes, foreign currency gains (losses), and income tax and other tax adjustments related to our long-term non-GAAP effective tax rate, along with certain non-recurring expenses and certain non-recurring cash flows. We have not reconciled diluted non-GAAP net income per share guidance to GAAP net income per diluted share or adjusted free cash flow margin guidance to GAAP net cash from operating activities because we do not provide guidance on GAAP net income or net cash from operating activities and would not be able to present the various reconciling cash and non-cash items between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures because certain items that impact these measures are uncertain or out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted, including share-based compensation expense, without unreasonable effort. The actual amounts of such reconciling items will have a significant impact on the company's GAAP net income per diluted share and GAAP net cash from operating activities.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Yes, that turned out to be great advice, so thanks. I sold 1/2 at 956, so a little over a double from the 470 entry point. Still holding the other half, though it's only a small position.

With the SMCI profit I pick up a little Sherwin Williams (SHW) to round out the Basic Materials sector holdings, and SHW also loosely fits into the broader homebuilding space, to supplement BLDR, TREX, UFPI. I also have a few HVAC related plays (TT, AAON), though these are commercially oriented rather than residential.

With SMCI, it'll be interesting to see where support turns out to be. A pullback was inevitable, and I figure once it finds a new base it will move back up before too long, assuming the broader stock bull market continues. Based on the chart it looks like the 650 - 700 area might be a support zone, though tough to say. A 38% Fibonacci retracement from the 350 breakout level to the 1050 peak would put the stock near where it is now, and a 50% retracement would be put it around 700. So I'll predict it settles in at around 650-700 as the bottom of the selloff, but just a guess.



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[fung_derf]

I'm guessing you're glad you took my suggestion on $SMCI now.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> UFPI <<

I have a modest long term position in UFPI, and also in a few other homebuilding related stocks like BLDR and TREX. I see Berkshire got into NVR, LEN, and DHI, but they reportedly sold their DHI position entirely in the last quarter (link below).

Fwiw, I've become reluctant to get into Berkshire's smaller positions since some of those are from the news guys (Weschler, Combs), and there also seems to be considerable turnover in these smaller stocks, where Berkshire closes out their position. Berkshire has also sold some great long term stock like MMC that I decided to continue holding.

With the homebuilders, these have historically been on the cyclical side, but in recent years have been closer to buy / holds, though still have more volatility than I like to see. I figure I'll just use the ETFS (ITB, XHB) but haven't taken a position yet. I like BLDR and UFPI since they are more steady, and also bought some TREX a while ago as a turnaround, and it's coming back pretty nice.


https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/4-warren-buffett-stocks-buy-after-berkshire-hathaways-latest-13f-filing


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[fung_derf]

$UFPI is on the run again You may want to check it out. I've done quite well with it.

US homebuilder sentiment climbed to six-month high in February:
Sentiment among US homebuilders rose to a six-month high in February as buyers continued to take advantage of mortgage rates that have fallen from their October peaks. The National Association of Home Builders gauge of housing market conditions rose by 4 points to 48 this month, according to data released Thursday. The NAHB’s measure of expected sales increased three points, while gauges of prospective buyer traffic and current sales also rose. Builder sentiment climbed in all four regions of the US, with especially strong gains in the West and Northeast. With mortgage rates still down from their fall peaks, fewer builders are cutting prices to lure customers. In February, 25% of builders reported cutting prices, compared with 31% who trimmed prices a month earlier. The average price reduction has stayed at 6% for eight months. The share of builders offering incentives to customers also declined, to 58% in February from 62%. Bloomberg.com

[fung_derf]

I've owned HSY since 11/21 at $176, so it's just been pretty so so. A few stocks I bought near the end of Covid should have been short term plays. It has done neither good nor bad I guess. Well actually it's up 9% plus the dividends in a bit over 2 years so I wouldn't classify that as not bad. I think there are better places to be.
As for Warren, I wish he would start buying $DE. I bought it as an AI play, but this week has hammered it.
Does BRK own $LEN? The chart looks like something he has affected. I wonder his feelings on $PFE?
Wondering how the loss of Charlie will start affecting the stock?

[gfp927z]

Derf, With HSY, I see it more as a longer term turnaround play than as a trading stock. It's down by 1/3, so probably will take time to come back into favor. But it's been a solid stock over the long haul, and has an excellent 'brand'. Also, if Buffett was interested a few years back, that indicates it's a worthy long term holding.

Speaking of Buffett, there is apparently a 'mystery stock' that he's been accumulating, but has chosen not to report it in the last two quarterly filings. If he liked HSY several years ago, but valuation was the problem, the 1/3 haircut should have corrected that aspect. Who knows, but either way I figure HSY is good enough for a small position as a long term buy / hold, though it will require patience.

I figure the key with turnarounds is determining whether the bottom is actually in or not. If it is, the next question is whether it's ready to start recovering yet? Using GNRC as an example, I figure the bottom is in (based on the chart), but for whatever reason it hasn't been ready to recover yet. Anyway, I figure it's probably best to stay away from most turnarounds. Buffett said the problem with turnarounds is that they rarely turnaround. But I think he was referring to stocks that have really been blasted, down 50%, 75%, etc. Something like HSY (down 30%) would be more of a 'correction'.



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[fung_derf]

Every morning this week I wake up with the intentions to dump my $HSY....then I don't do it.
One chart says it's hit resistance and about to fall again and the longer term chart says it's about to go on a run. The very short chart tells me nothing.
Help me figure this out.
I think I should have sold at $209....then again at $199.

[gfp927z]

>>> Waste Management Inc (WM) Reports Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2023 Earnings


GuruFocus Research

Feb 13, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waste-management-inc-wm-reports-113530156.html


Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue increased to $5.217 billion, up from $4.935 billion in Q4 2022.

Income from Operations: Full-year income from operations rose to $3.575 billion from $3.365 billion in the previous year.

Net Income: WM reported a net income of $493 million in Q4, compared to $499 million in the same quarter last year.

Diluted EPS: Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the year stood at $5.66, up from $5.39 in 2022.

Operating EBITDA Margin: Q4 saw an adjusted operating EBITDA margin of 29.9%, a significant improvement from 27.5% in Q4 2022.

Free Cash Flow: WM generated strong cash from operations, contributing to robust full-year cash flow.

Sustainability Investments: WM continues to invest in renewable natural gas projects and recycling assets, with significant projected EBITDA contributions by 2026.


On February 13, 2024, Waste Management Inc (NYSE:WM) released its 8-K filing, detailing its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023. WM, the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operates 259 active landfills and about 337 transfer stations, serving various end markets and leading North America in recycling efforts.

WM's fourth-quarter results showcased accelerated earnings growth, attributed to effective price programs and cost optimization strategies. The company's full-year operating EBITDA reflected growth due to these operational efficiencies. Despite facing challenges such as inflationary pressures and the need for continuous investment in sustainability, WM's strategic focus on pricing discipline and operational excellence has paid off, leading to a robust financial position.

Financial Highlights and Analysis

WM's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $5.217 billion, a 5.7% increase from $4.935 billion in the same period last year. Full-year revenue also saw an increase, reaching $20.426 billion, up from $19.698 billion in 2022. This growth reflects WM's ability to effectively manage its pricing strategies and maintain revenue growth despite economic uncertainties.

Income from operations for the year was $3.575 billion, a 6.2% increase from the previous year's $3.365 billion. This improvement indicates WM's success in enhancing its operational efficiency and controlling costs. The company's net income for the fourth quarter was slightly lower at $493 million compared to $499 million in Q4 2022, but the full-year net income increased to $2.304 billion from $2.238 billion.

Diluted EPS for the year improved to $5.66, up from $5.39 in 2022. The adjusted operating EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter expanded significantly to 29.9%, demonstrating WM's ability to optimize margins through its operational excellence programs.

WM's focus on sustainability growth is evident in its investments in renewable natural gas projects and recycling assets. These investments are expected to contribute significantly to the company's EBITDA by the end of 2026, reflecting WM's commitment to creating economic and environmental value.

WM's President and CEO, Jim Fish, emphasized the company's strong performance and the momentum built in the second half of 2023, positioning WM for sustained growth in 2024. Fish also highlighted the company's capital allocation priorities, including investments in sustainability growth, accretive acquisitions, and returning cash to shareholders.

Our operating and financial results in the second half of 2023 surpassed expectations driven by strong execution on our pricing and operating excellence programs," said Jim Fish, WMs President and Chief Executive Officer.

WM's financial tables reveal a company that is not only growing its top line but also improving its profitability and cash flow generation. The company's balance sheet remains solid, with a healthy cash position and a manageable level of debt.

In conclusion, WM's earnings report reflects a company that is successfully navigating the complexities of the waste management industry, leveraging its scale and operational expertise to deliver strong financial results. The company's strategic investments in sustainability initiatives are expected to contribute to its growth trajectory, making it an attractive proposition for value investors.

For more detailed information on WM's earnings, including financial tables and key metrics, investors are encouraged to review the full 8-K filing.

<<<



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[fung_derf]

LOL....well don't ask me!
For a comparison, when I go to casinos I play craps. I have a system called the dooey-don't system. Very slow, very boring, highly successful.
But I play it from the side of the don'ts. I'm betting against the rollers. Every so often though, there is a dice roller just on fire. I have learned to just stop trying to beat those people and wait for them to pass the dice.
This is my current feelings about SCMI.
I might suggest you sell 1/3 of your position now though. Or should I say, I probably would.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Looks like SMCI might finally be due for pullback / consolidation? It hit 810 today, RSI at 94 (yikes), so wouldn't be surprising to see some retracement. It's currently showing a bearish shooting star candlestick, though we'll see what it looks like at the end of the trading day.

I only have a tiny position (in at 470), so will probably just ride it out. It would be tempting to grab the profits now, but the company looks extremely well positioned and analysts point out that its valuation is relatively cheap (vrs NVDA). Plus the chart still looks like a move to 1000 might be in the cards. So.. ride the tiger, but look out for those teeth and claws, lol..




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[fung_derf]

LOL....would have been a great recommendation a week earlier.

[gfp927z]

>>> Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Reports Solid Q4 and Full Year 2023 Financial Results


GuruFocus Research

February 7, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/murphy-usa-inc-musa-reports-215915108.html


Net Income: Q4 net income increased to $150.0 million, with full-year net income at $556.8 million.

Fuel Contribution: Total fuel contribution for Q4 was 32.5 cents per gallon, with a yearly average of 31.4 cents per gallon.

Retail Gallons: Stable at 1.2 billion in Q4, with a slight decline in same store sales.

Merchandise Contribution: Grew by 4.6% in Q4 to $197.7 million, with a full-year increase of 4.7%.

Share Repurchase: Approximately 442.2 thousand shares repurchased in Q4; over 1 million shares in full year 2023.

Store Openings: 10 new stores in Q4, bringing the total count to 1,733 by year-end.

Dividends: Quarterly cash dividend paid at $0.41 per share, with an annual increase of 11.7%.


On February 7, 2024, Murphy USA Inc (NYSE:MUSA) released its 8-K filing, announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2023. The company, a prominent retailer of gasoline products and convenience merchandise, operates a network of retail stations across the United States, with a significant number of stores adjacent to Walmart locations.

Fiscal Performance Highlights

Murphy USA Inc (NYSE:MUSA) reported a net income of $150.0 million, or $7.00 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase from the $117.7 million, or $5.21 per diluted share, recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. For the full year, net income was $556.8 million, or $25.49 per diluted share, compared to $672.9 million, or $28.10 per diluted share, in 2022. The company's total fuel contribution for the fourth quarter was 32.5 cents per gallon (cpg), up from 30.6 cpg in the prior year's quarter. However, the full-year fuel contribution averaged 31.4 cpg, down from 34.3 cpg in 2022.

Despite a challenging environment, Murphy USA maintained stable retail gallon sales at 1.2 billion for both the fourth quarter and the full year, matching the previous year's figures. However, same store sales (SSS) volumes saw a slight decline of 2.0% for the quarter and 1.8% for the year. The merchandise contribution for the fourth quarter increased by 4.6% to $197.7 million, with unit margins holding steady at 19.4%, reflecting a consistent performance in merchandise sales.

Strategic and Operational Developments

President and CEO Andrew Clyde highlighted the company's robust operational performance and strategic initiatives, stating,

2023 financial results and operational performance are a testament to the strong foundations we have built at Murphy USA over the last decade, successfully executing against our strategy, and widening our advantage in the marketplace."

Clyde emphasized the company's focus on new store growth, continuous improvement, and investment in people, technology, and innovation to drive in-store performance.

The company continued its share repurchase program, buying back approximately 442.2 thousand common shares for $162.0 million in the fourth quarter, and over 1.0 million shares for a total of $336.2 million for the full year. This reflects Murphy USA's commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Murphy USA also expanded its store portfolio, opening 10 new stores in the fourth quarter, resulting in a net year-end total of 1,733 stores. The company's capital allocation strategy remains focused on growth, with a strong and agile balance sheet supporting these efforts.

Financial Position and Outlook

As of December 31, 2023, Murphy USA reported cash and cash equivalents of $117.8 million, with total marketable securities of $11.5 million. The company's long-term debt stood at $1,784.7 million. The effective income tax rate for the fourth quarter was 23.6%, slightly up from 22.3% in the previous year's quarter.

Looking ahead, Murphy USA provided guidance for 2024, anticipating sustained growth in new store additions and investments in raze-and-rebuild sites. The company expects to maintain market share gains and foresees modest growth in store operating expenses per site, excluding credit card fees and rent. SG&A costs are projected to reflect continued investments in productivity initiatives, with an effective tax rate expected to be in the range of 24% to 26%.

For detailed financial tables and further discussion of Murphy USA's financial performance, including reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures, please refer to the full 8-K filing.

Investors and stakeholders are invited to join the earnings call on February 8, 2024, to discuss the Q4 and full-year results. The call will provide an opportunity to gain deeper insights into the company's financial health and strategic direction.

Murphy USA Inc (NYSE:MUSA) remains focused on delivering shareholder value and is poised to leverage its strong Q4 performance and strategic initiatives to drive continued success in 2024.

Explore the complete 8-K earnings release (here) from Murphy USA Inc for further details.

<<<



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[gfp927z]

Derf, Looks like SMCI is still elevating, and the chart is saying that 1000 'might' be in the cards in this move, yikes. Tough to say, but the financial writers are pointing out how undervalued the stock was and still is, compared to Ai darlings like NVDA. So who knows? Fun to watch, though I only have a tiny position so it's been a lot easier to just ride it up and not worry :o)

Looking at PLTR, I totally missed this move, but did own a little last year during the previous big run up. Back then I grabbed the profits quickly, so sold too early, but this time I'll probably just watch from the sidelines. Looking at their slob of a CEO (Karp) does not inspire confidence, and much of their business comes from the intel community / Deep State, so I wonder how well that can translate into a broader business model? But with the 'Ai revolution' upon us, and lots of hype, who knows. But lots of unknowns with that stock.

Btw, Peter Thiel has another company called Rumble, which is basically a You Tube for conservatives. One theory is that they are mainly assembling a 'dissidents list' for future use by the government, ie people to be surveilled and eventually rounded up, ala China. Who knows, but as an investment I'll probably steer clear. I briefly traded it last year, but was glad to get out roughly even. Same with the Trump SPAC (DWAC), which traders are currently having fun with, but probably best kept in the 'entertainment' category imo.




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