"Market Madness"

[Wildbilly]

Good morning, you're braver/better than me

I've had no luck with energy at all. I did have some moderate success with UGAZ not long ago, but I can't be around for every tick recently which is what those ETNs require in my experience.

Good luck on that one!

[jimmenknee]

Good morning Wildbilly I'm going to wait until after earnings. I like this company most of all the coal/nat gas ones though FWIW

[Wildbilly]

Hi jimmenknee, nice to see you around again,

will you be out of CNX EOD?

[jimmenknee]

CNX [NYSE] CONSOL Energy Inc
Basic Materials | Independent Oil & Gas | USA

Reports 7/28 BMO
Co released prelim loss 7/20.
Analysts still expecting a .01 EPS

[jimmenknee]

SVU [NYSE] SUPERVALU IncSUPERVALU Inc
Services | Grocery Stores | USA

I normally don't post/lament over charts that got away (missed this bottom buster up cycle), but I'm pondering this one for channel drop.

Hesitant based on less options volume/open interest than I'd like, but someone took 20 Apr 11P @ 0.30, which by my calculations is spot on estimated intrinsic based on 3 previous down cycles. If it drops to channel bottom support, there'd be a ~double gross profit movement...

[jimmenknee]

CAS [NYSE] A. M. Castle & Co
Industrial Goods | Metal Fabrication | USA

Lower volume, but liquid in relation to lower float (13.54M) with a high short interest (23.34%)-- squeeze candidate

[jimmenknee]

Sold F Mar 20 15C +31.25% in 15 daze

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
LF shares 2.55 #msg-110724173

[jimmenknee]

HLX [NYSE] Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc
Basic Materials | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | USA

[jimmenknee]

Bought F Mar 20 15C (3/3) 1.12

Looks to be testing the 5min Fibs R3 & 60min S1. Like to see a test of the 16.50 level. Have a sell order in based on that estimated intrinsic of 1.50 (+33.93%).

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
LF shares 2.55 #msg-110724173

[jimmenknee]

RL [NYSE] Ralph Lauren Corporation
Consumer Goods | Textile - Apparel Clothing | USA

Looking at Mar 140C w/ tgt 145.65

[jimmenknee]

SNDK [NASD] SanDisk Corp
Technology | Data Storage Devices | USA

[jimmenknee]

LF [NYSE] LeapFrog Enterprises Inc
Technology | Multimedia & Graphics Software | USA

Took a *Leap* of faith w/ an early entry @ 2.55 -- 1st tgt 2.85

[jimmenknee]

Bought (2/4) & Sold (2/5) shares (1/2 pos) OCN +16.57% in 1 daze #msg-110586108

Wait/Watch:
COUP: Bottom Buster

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
OCN shares (1/2 pos) 6.76 #msg-110586108

[jimmenknee]

OCN [NYSE] Ocwen Financial Corp
Financial | Mortgage Investment | USA

In yesterday afternoon @ $6.76-- popped today on Company Update for Stakeholders

Partial (1/2) sell order in @ mid-bb

[jimmenknee]

DWA [NASD] DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc
Services | Movie Production, Theaters | USA

Based off charger Bottom Buster scan. Like the chance to 21 w/ 22 area tougher resistance

[jimmenknee]

DFS [NYSE] Discover Financial Services
Financial | Credit Services | USA

[jimmenknee]

Bought & Sold F Feb 6(W) 14C +19.80% in 18 daze

Wait/Watch:
COUP: Bottom Buster
CRK: Pincher
CVX: Bottom Buster
DFS: Pincher
DWA: Bottom Buster
OCN: Pincher
SNDK: Pincher
XOM: Bottom Buster

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145

[charger]

SPY(60M)chart on reply looks like it's ready to explode.

[jimmenknee]

Bought & Sold F Feb 6(W) 14C +54.88% in 3 daze (chart below-- Intraday 5min Pincher)

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145

[charger]

SPY(60M)

[jimmenknee]

Good Morning charger The activity here has dwindled down quite a bit from the past 5 years. domain311 decided to concentrate on his business a while back-- he certainly has been missed as I learned a few techniques from his sharing.

Thanks for posting-- feel free to share anytime

[jimmenknee]

Catching up:

Expired IBM Dec 5(W) 165C -100% in 24 daze (no post-- stalled Pincher chart)

Bought (12/15) & Sold (12/23) F Jan 9(W) +65.52% in 8 daze (no post-- Intraday 5min Pincher)

Sold RCAP shares +9.37% in 47 daze #msg-108304230

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145

[charger]

So this is where my buddies are hanging out.
Can't believe you have domain311 as a mod on here,
He was ruling the pincher board like 4 years ago.
Boardmarked!

[jimmenknee]

You're welcome Sam-- really hope it turns out well for you! Albeit a short session Friday didn't get the buy volume conviction one would like to see, the Money Flow chart looks hopeful for tomorrow's session.

GLTU

[jimmenknee]

3 out of 4 ain't bad MassP-- congrats I work with the chart as much as I can-- but I am like you in a desire to close trades within a few sessions. I do have a time cap on the options trades although I have rolled a few losing positions to gain more time. If I have shares, I have more leeway and can hold for a few months though (i.e. I am in F since the end of August)

Continued good luck to you

[SamLBInj]

Thanks my Friend!
Thanks for your Huge Help to figure out the Pinch Issues on DROP.
Really Appreciate you taking the time to do all that.
Big Sam

[Art]

Thank you Jimmenknee. I closed my short trades on TSLA, NFLX and GPRO. GPRO went against me. BABA has not started yet for long trade. May be on Friday or Monday I will enter long on BABA. I trade short term swings, may be 2-4 days maximum in a trade. Day trade I find very hard. How do you trade?

[jimmenknee]

Yuck sorry Sam The good news is that the Money Flow 3 cycle out is bottoming. The Money Flow rules I follow WRT OTC stocks (FTR I only sparsely trade them anymore):

--Watch MFI 21 push up threw the 50 line. This is the realm of "smart money." Setup is MFI 21 > 50.
--Then the next MFI 3 cycle up begins the P&D clock if CMF 3 (ask slappers AKA retail) is also up and 5,15,0 PVO (volume) flips w/ buy volume causing the increase.
--ChiOsc (money momentum) needs to either be green or begin to move to green.

More detailed explanation of Money Flow TA here: #msg-72504953

In DROP's case, I don't know what is causing drop as I have only scanned the board briefly. If you compare this movement with the last Pincher setup in May, you might have to wait through a few false starts

The other Money Flow indicator to "watch for" is Raw money flow. Some brokerages have the indicator available on its charts, Bigcharts.com has it too but Stockcharts.com does not. I use Raw money flow for intraday monitoring on five down to one minute charts.

[SamLBInj]

Hey Jimmenknee, Need your advice. I left a message on the Pincher board.
Also, I am grabing Nov 28 SLV 16. Calls, should get there easily and I picked them up around .08 and .09.
Big Sam
I cant post private messages for some reason.

[jimmenknee]

Very nice MassP Do you trade short-term cycles? I like BABA's positioning for a long trade and the other 3's downturn looks to be decelerating FWIW

(Save for NFLX duly noting an analyst downgrade this morning)

[Art]

@jimmenknee, Thank You very much. Currently I am Short NFLX, TSLA, GPRO and looking to go long BABA

[jimmenknee]

Rolled IBM Dec 5(W) 165C (0.30 credit; no post-- stalled Pincher chart)

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
IBM Dec 5(W) 165C 1.67 (no post-- stalled Pincher chart)
RCAP shares 11.96 #msg-108304230

[jimmenknee]

GPRO [NASD] GoPro Inc
Consumer Goods | Photographic Equipment & Supplies | USA

[jimmenknee]

BABA [NYSE] Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Services | Specialty Retail, Other | China

Based off charger Bottom Buster scan.

[jimmenknee]

TSLA [NASD] Tesla Motors Inc
Consumer Goods | Auto Manufacturers - Major | USA

[jimmenknee]

NFLX [NASD] Netflix Inc
Services | CATV Systems | USA

BB Pincher is a TA Setup looking for a turn/bounce off the lower-BB. Key TA is compression/release of:
(1.) %B (thru EMA 5)
(2.) ADX 3 downturn
Also;
(3.) TRIX 3 movement up thru TRIX 7 (key to confirm)
(4.) CMF 3 up thru signal line
(5.) The Aroons (8) to be moving in the right direction (for ultimate green-red crossover)
(6.) Inverted MACD calibrated to previous BB Pincher confirmations for MACD green-red crossover

[jimmenknee]

Thank you MassP and welcome I have 4 different long chart setups: default (has both Money Flow and Standard TA indicators); "Bottom Buster" (borrowed from charger); Bollie Pincher (Bollinger Band chart looking for bounce off bottom BB); and the Standard Pincher (ADX/PPO chart that comes from the Pincher board).

I'll try to fit your picks into 1 of these setups. Are you long on these (shares/options) or looking to get into a position?

[Art]

@jimmenknee, I like your charts. When you have some time, could you please post NFLX, TSLA, BABA and GPRO charts. Many Thanks in advance.

[jimmenknee]

Sold KND Dec 17.5C +23.08% in 3 daze #msg-108387051

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
IBM Nov 28(W) 162.5C 1.97 (no post-- stalled Pincher chart)
RCAP shares 11.96 #msg-108304230

[jimmenknee]

I've come to the conclusion that being willing to take smaller gains in options (but still comparatively larger than share gains) in this market helps to maintain a nice win % (> 80%). I also like ITM options because the premium to intrinsic gap is narrower and the probability of worthless expiration decreases.

(DVN looks like it wants to run into the close )

[interloper]

I was up 80%+ this early morning Jimmy on DVN. I was trying to put my a sell in and the market started to fade away. I stalled on the sell because I stopped to think "wait this is up 80% right now this could be one of the big ones that options can be." Lesson don't think so much. Take it and run.

[jimmenknee]

ah gotcha-- nice call on the weekly chart Jan 65C on the bid looks like a steal @ 1.60

[interloper]

I am playing DVN . LL looks like it technically broke into that gap already. I like the inverse head and shoulders that has formed over the last month which is breaking the neckline. The weekly chart shows the pinch with the PPS resting on the 200 day moving average for support.

[jimmenknee]

Thanks for the alert/chart interloper I had let LL off my watch during the flat recovery. I like the company and the options volume is decent enough. Are you looking for a gap break?

[jimmenknee]

KND [NYSE] Kindred Healthcare Inc
Healthcare | Long-Term Care Facilities | USA

Based off charger Bottom Buster scan. Got in yesterday on Dec 17.5C @ 2.60 w/ init tgt @ 21.60 (equates to sell estimated intrinsic @ 4.10)

[interloper]

DVN in Nov 28 $67 C @ .90

[interloper]

DVN I like this one due to it breaking above recent R of $65.00

Third Q hi-lites from 11/04


Achieved record oil production exceeding company guidance
• Generated U.S. oil production growth of 77 percent year over year
• Increased full-year production outlook
• Improved pre-tax cash margin by 20 percent year over year
• Closed $2.3 billion asset sale further enhancing strong financial position

[interloper]

LL check it out, haven't looked at the options yet. Daily & weekly

[jimmenknee]

RCAP [NYSE] RCS Capital Corporation
Financial | Investment Brokerage - National | USA

Tried for Dec 10C but missed the entry. Majority of movement came after 2PM. Lighter volume in options; may switch to shares tomorrow.

[jimmenknee]

Sold F Nov 14C +26.21% in 4 daze #msg-106378145

Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145