What should we make of the drop in pps of NBS the last two weeks?
Today the pps of NBS reached a low of 6.23 and rebounded at the close to 7.24. This was a release indicating a bottom.
In the last week the pps of micro-cap ASTM has almost doubled in large part based upon a glowing article by Jason Napodono in Seeking Alpha projecting positive results for its ixCELL-DCM study followed by positive results in a partnered P3 study for DCM. Coincidentally, the pps of ASTM rose while the pps of NBS fell during this same time period. Did some investors initially leave NBS for what they thought were greener stem cell pastures of ASTM? I suspect so.
Mr. Napodono’s projections are based upon financing becoming available for a ASTM P3 study for DCM through a partnership that is yet to be announced. His projections are hugely speculative for this reason alone.
By coincidence the results of the P2b ixCELL-DCM study will be out about the same time as the PRESERVE P2 study of NBS for Acute MI (AMI) and RENEW P3 study of Baxter for Chronic Myocardial Ischemia (CMI).
Who will be first with the most impressive results? It certainly will not be ASTM even in the face of Mr. Napodono’s optimism that the P2b study of ASTM will be positive, a feeling that mirrors my confidence that the RENEW and PRESERVE results will be positive. Mr. Napodono affirmed, “It is clear to us based on the data Aastrom has generated to date that ixmyelocel-T has utility in ischemic DCM.” By implication Mr. Napodono might agree that NBS and BAX results should have utility in DCM. All three studies are using autologous stem cells although ASTM is not using a PCT product.
It is highly likely that ASTM approval for ixmyelocel-T whether for CLI or DCM, if it occurs at all, will follow approval of the Baxter PCT CD 34 product for cardiac disease after the RENEW study is completed. Baxter will be first out the door with P3 results enabling early market share dominance that could easily jeopardize the optimistic Napolono projections for ASTM, a company that remains marginally financed. Today in a follow-up article on ASTM by Michael Sacerdote, Mr. Napodono was far less sanguine than earlier assessments: “I’m saying there is a 20% chance ixmyelocel-T gets to market in either CLI or DCM. That’s pretty skeptical.”
Even if treating Dilated Cardiomegaly (DCM) is not exactly the same as treating Acute MI (AMI) or Chronic Myocardial Ischemia (CMI) many aspects of current treatments are the same, and there will be cross-over usage eventually following approval of PCT stem cells for one or another form of cardiac disease.
If investor confidence in ASTM is warranted because of the effusive Seeking Alpha article of Mr Napodono, more confidence should be directed towards the Baxter and NBS studies and the futures of those companies.
Although there is collaboration between NBS and BAX currently, NBS remains on a fast track for being bought out at my estimated pps of 15 - 20 by Baxter or another pharmaceutical wanting a presence in the stem cell arena. ASTM appears to be a passing fancy likely to implode financially.
