A recent article on insidermonkey makes an interesting read. It reveals statistics about diabetes which indicate great growth prospects for companies like Novo Nordisk which specialize in the field. The number of people in the world suffering from diabetes is likely to increase by 50% from 366 million in 2011 to 552 million in 2030. Type 2 diabetes represents more than 90% of the cases. Urbanization, changing diets and the rise of sedentary lifestyles have all contributed to the increase. 80% of total diabetes cases are from the not so affluent countries. China, India, and Indonesia are the high potential markets. China has more than 93 million patients now, and the number is going to increase to nearly 130 million in 2030. India is expected to have 101.2 million by that year, and the US nearly 30 million patients. Novo has a good market share in China, while Merck (MRK) is making inroads into the Indian, Brazilian and Chinese market with its diabetes drugs. S&P predicts the diabetes market to be $58 billion by 2018 (65% over 2012's figure of $35 billion). Companies like Sanofi (SNY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are also getting more aggressive in the market. Considering these statistics, the major players in this sector like Novo Nordisk are going to benefit from the growth story. However, the high potential segment is likely to get more competitive over time. Even smaller players like Chromadex Corporation (CDXC) are actively researching on innovative molecules for diabetes / obesity management. Chromadex has recently launched a vitamin derivative which is useful in diabetes / obesity management. Novo has done well over the years on the back of improvement in fundamentals. There are hopes from Tresiba, and the R&D pipeline looks healthy with several products at the filing or the phase 3 stage.
