Here are some back tests. Daily testing is recommended in the software, so I did both daily with default settings (improvements) and monthly with conservative settings (original). DD=daily default and MC=monthly conservative. BH=buy and hold. The leveraged ETFs, SSO and DDM began in July 2006 so that's were I started some of the testing. Tests started with $10,000 and assumed a $6 commission per trade.
7/1/06 to 1/11/13 (flat):
SPY: DD 32%, MC 31%, BH 32%
SSO: DD 0%, MC 44%, BH -1%
DDM: DD 22%, MC 56%, BH 22%
IWM: DD 31%, MC 35%, BH 31%
MSFT: DD 29%, MC 32%, BH 30%
1/6/03 to 1/11/13 (up):
SPY: DD 84%, MC 85%, BH 93%
IWM: DD 132%, MC 75%, BH 152%
MSFT: DD 28%, MC 34%, BH 29%
2/6/00 to 1/11/13 (flat):
SPY: DD 31%, MC 54%, BH 31%
MSFT: DD 32%, MC 57%, BH 32%
2/1/94 to 1/11/13 (up):
SPY: DD 258%, MC 119%, BH 331%
MSFT: DD 1302%, MC 216%, BH 1228%
The monthly conservative (original) setting showed a clear advantage during the first flat period for the leveraged ETFs, SSO and DDM. MC also showed an advantage during the second flat period. AIM does not appear to have an advantage during upward periods and because of multiple trades during these times, it also ends up with fewer shares along the way, as compared to buy and hold. However, the DD setting did do well with MSFT from 1994 forward, slightly beating BH.
There was one microcap stock that stood out from 20 others tested from 1/6/03 to 2/11/13:
MIND: DD 808%, MC 430%, BH 1006%, Aggressive 2589%. But, none of the others tested stood out like this using the Aggressive settings.
Perhaps someone can share their personal success story using AIM and give additional tips on how to maximize it.
