Elliott Wave TRIGGERS and TARGETS

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market rallies, DOW +136

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 158K vs 88K. Then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 363K vs 369K. The market opened higher at SPX 1415 and started to rally. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 51.7 vs 51.5, Construction spending higher: +0.6% vs -0.6%, Consumer confidence was reported at a 4 year high: 72.2 vs 70.3, and Auto sales were reported higher. The rally continued until around noon when the SPX hit 1428. After a small pullback to SPX 1424 by 2:00 the market tried to rally again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1428 again and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30, then Factory orders at 10:00.

The market opened higher today, quickly breaking out of its recent SPX 1403-1421 trading range. Then it rallied slightly through the SPX 1422/27 resistance area, when hitting 1428. After that the rally stalled, but remained within a four point range for the rest of the day. Today's 16 point rally is the best one we have seen since the B wave rally of this month long correction. Certainly looks like the path of least resistance is now up. However, to get all the indices aligned again we would like to see at least a retest of the lows in the next few days. If this does not occur, and the market continues to rally, we will have to assume the downtrend ended at SPX 1403. We can currently count three waves off that low: SPX 1419- 1406-1428.

Short term support is now at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum was quite overbought today, and remained overbought at the close. The short term OEW charts turned positive today, for the first time since SPX 1450, with the swing level now at 1422. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp