TRADING 04 FUTURES

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wednesday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: market rebound continues, DOW +93

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +1.1% vs 0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1325, hit 1328 in the opening minutes, pulled back to 1324, and then hit 1332 by 10:00. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.9% vs -5.5%, and the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20120627a.htm. The market pulled back to SPX 1328 by 11:30, then rose to 1334 by 12:30. Another pullback followed to SPX 1329 by 2:30, but the market retested the 1334 high near the close and ended the day at 1332.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought today, after monday's positive divergence. Tomorrow, Q1 GDP at 8:30, estimates (+1.9%), and weekly Jobless claims.

The market gapped up at the open today, and then rallied to SPX 1334. This was a bit more than most of us expected, as the short term OEW charts swung slightly positive. But the market hit short term resistance in the SPX 1334/38 range and appeared to stall there. We were expecting a 4th wave up before a nasty 5th wave down. But now it appears the pattern from SPX 1363 to 1309 ended at either that low, or yesterday's 1310 low. We updated the short term count to display a Minor A at SPX 1309/10, and a Minor B underway now. Since Minor A was nearly a fibonacci 55 point decline. Minor B could rally 21 points, which it already has, or about 34 points to the SPX 1342/47 resistance range.

For the past three weeks this market has traded between the 1313 pivot range and the 1363 pivot range. Which has remained the initial support pivot and resistance pivot.

Clearly a breakout will support an ongoing uptrend, or a breakdown a continuing downtrend.

My comment: Tony does not know ....

The short term waves have been a bit difficult to decipher during this three week period. Short term support is now at SPX 1324/27 and then the 1313 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1334/38 and then 1342/47. Short term momentum pulled back some after reaching quite overbought. The short term OEW charts are now positive with the swing point at SPX 1329. Q1 GDP tomorrow morning may prove to be quite interesting. Best to your trading!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp