The dumb masses who were calling for new highs over the last few weeks are all being proved wrong. There is no nice way to say it.
It is instructive to look at why they were so wrong.
Regardless whether you think the high was 1422 or 1415 as I do, it was five waves up to that high. From that high we dropped in five waves. Five up and then five down in the same degree is a TREND CHANGE. The five down from 1415 to 1266 was a wave [1]. At 1266 we began to bounce. This bounce had to be three waves because another five up in the same degree would not match any pattern in Elliott Wave.
What caused the dumb masses to be so wrong in their bullishness the last few weeks was a wave [2]. It happens without fail that a wave [2] of this high degree causes new bears from wave [1] down to totally give up on going down and become bulls looking for new highs. Wave [2] also convinces the perma bulls they were right all along.
Think about the psychology of the thing. You hit 1422 as a new high after a 750 point gain of the last three years. You drop and then you bounce right back to 1415. No one is bearish. There was no real reason to be bearish. Everyone thinks it is onward and forward to 1500-1600. But then you drop and you keep dropping. Elliotticians like my self called the top and thought this decline was a correction in the continuing bull market. Only a couple of Elliotticians including myself knew when this correction turned into a trend change of large degree.
So the market fell for 150 S&P points and it looks like a bottomless pit has opened up. You think that just maybe that BIG BEAR is right. You get accustom to looking for lower lows. Down, down, down you go. You go clear down to 1266.
Then the market turns up. Indicators turn up and systems go into up phases (whatever that is) etc. Targets start getting hit on the upside boom , boom, boom. It starts to look like the bears are crazy and you were crazy to be one. The market goes sideways for a while, 8 days in a range creates indecision. This is wave (B) of an ABC.
Then wave (C)up of [2] begins and hope is renewed. By the time 50% to 65% of wave [1] down is retraced, bullish euphoria has returned and bears are looked upon with disdain by those who have been sucked in by another infamous wave [2]. But those who recognize this is just a wave [2] correction in an impulse down are right and the wave [2] bulls looking for new highs have just been wrong.
northam43 is the only bull I know who is still fighting for the bull cause. He stays with his system no matter how much of a failure it may be. Caldero and the rest who were fooled by wave [2] are now changing their opinion.
My target for wave [3] is at least 1122 and I give it 83% odds of success.
Good Luck
