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A very simple exercise to demonstrate how correlated,

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dd99 Member Profile dd99  
Friday, May 25, 2012 2:41:27 PM
Re: None Post # of 28076 
A very simple exercise to demonstrate how correlated, at current, the PPS is on volume being driven by Apple speculation. Here's a chart with year to date data for four simple numbers. PPS (in dimes, for scale), Weekly Total Volume (in tens of millions, for scale) and two values that reflect the volume of Google searches (for "liquidmetal" and "liquid metal"). Those last two are scaled against each other using Google's "search volume index" which you can find on Google trends. The financial numbers can be found at Google finance.

Here's the chart



(numbers are tabulated weekly, not daily, so smaller PPS spikes, like the one in March around the "shipping parts" PR, are not represented perfectly)

As you can see, volume spikes on news, which is wholly correlated to Apple mentions, which triggers speculative buys. Volume hits a slightly higher plateau as the initial news mentions die off, people sell on lack of hard announcements, and the PPS falls.

So far, some longs remain after each cycle, which is the "base" as it were. This is a closer indicator of the market's confidence that LQMT can pull off something big. It's growing, but slowly, and it includes both rock-solid investors and some medium-term speculators who aren't day traders, but who aren't adverse to getting out either. I agree with those who say that traditional daily and intraday chart analysis is worth less with this stock. I'm not sure if minutia about coming dilution or CC answers are really factored in - and if they are, they are drowned out by the number of newcomers that ride in and out, and the daytraders that feed on that behavior. IMO this is purely a news and rumor-driven stock right now.

This is both good and bad. Good, if you can recognize this and plan accordingly. Good if you are long (like I have been) and want some reassurance. Bad if you dislike volatility and like predictability and analysis. Bad if you expect any particular spike to be "the new normal". Good if you consider that the PPS has spiked up to 400% on news cycle mentions and speculation alone - with actual, positive news, I'd expect something that flew past that.

I've been holding my position, riding these waves, but the next few days will be interesting. I'm not sure of my next move at this time. But I found the numbers interesting, in any respect. I think the science has a bright future and I really hope LQMT can remain at the crest of the wave.


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