For those who follow Elliott Wave analysis: Bullish Wave Count for Oil
* Monday, March 26, 2012
Since our last entry in the oil market at the 36.78 level in the USO, this pattern has been developing rather bullishly. In fact, in our Trading Room, I have suggested further long positions within our current region, with a stop just below the 38.75 level.
Clearly, this pattern is supported by the significant international risks inherent in the oil market, which supports the fact that oil will be headed much higher.
Our current count has the market within a wave ii of a 3rd wave of a larger corrective wave. However, this corrective wave to the upside will most likely exceed last years’ high, and it may even exceed it by more than 10%.
On Friday, we may have had the beginnings of a 5 wave move to the upside, which could very well target the 41.85 region, which is the .382 extension. If the USO has begun in a wave iii move, once the USO hits the 41.85 region, and then pulls back correctively, the next likely target will be the 45.20 region at the 1.00 extension. Ultimately, this wave iii will most likely target the 47.30 region or as high as the 48.60 region.
For a longer term target, it would not surprise me to see the USO over 50, but we will be better able to provide the exact target levels as we move up towards the initial targets to confirm the larger pattern.
From a trading perspective, once we move beyond the 41.84 region in a wave (3) after it initially pulls back from its upcoming expected test of that level, we will then move stops up to that level. > See Charts: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/uso-32512.php http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/GILBURT.html George.