CHONG2

[chichi2]

* Wednesday, January 18, 2012


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat




This is expiration week which normally has a bullish bias and the current rally could run into Friday. Above is our TRIN/SPY ratio and seems to do well to help pick turns in the market. In general the TRIN/SPY ratio will head up when the market is heading down and vice versa. At turns in the market the TRIN/SPY ratio will head in the same direction as the market and produce a divergence. Right now the TRIN/SPY ratio is heading lower as the market is heading higher and not producing a divergence and a bullish sign for the market. We did have a divergence in the TRINQ/QQQ the other day but got whipped away on the current rally. The trend is up and we don’t see a safe trade at the moment. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.




Above is the daily chart of Gold going back to late 2001. Above is a two part signal that has produced good buy signals in the past. First part of the two part signal is that slow stochastics %K(145) must trade below 20 and then close above along with the CCI (80) trade below -100 and close above. When these two indicators give signals the same time, Gold went on a rally phase lasting several months and some extended over a year. Notice that the last signal given by this method was at the 2008 low, near 3 years ago. This method gave a buy signal in early January. I might add that the Commercials for gold hit 164 Short positions and in bullish territory.



The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal. Above is GDX on a weekly timeframe. A bullish Head and Shoulder bottom developed where the Head is the October 2009 low. The Neckline was jumped in October 2010 and has since traded sideways creating a bullish consolidation called a “Expanding Triangle”. Normally the Consolidation pattern marks the half way point of the move and would give the current consolidation a target to 110 range. There is a two part buy signal developing now using the Bullish percent index and the Slow Stochastics. For this buy signal to be triggered both the bullish Percent index and the Slow Stochastics much trade below 20 and then close above 20. Currently the Slow Stochastics has traded below 20 and closed above. The Bullish percent index has traded below 20 but has not closed above 20 leaving this buy signal incomplete. Any short term strength in GDX most likely will trigger this buy signal on the weekly timeframe.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html