The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (01/04/11)_TY_George
* Wednesday, January 4, 2012
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is an intermediate term view of the SPX. The top window is the MACD of the TRIN/SPY ratio with a 50 day moving average. We have circled in blue when the bullish and bearish crossover has occurred. Notice to the right it getting close to having a bullish crossover and suggests an intermediate term rally would begin. The second window down is the TRIN/SPY ratio in two different moving averages (the red and blue lines). When there is a wide separation in the red and blue lines then a turn in the market is not far off. Notice that there is a wide separation in the lines now and suggests market is near a turn. If the Red line passes down through the blue line then the turn in the market will be up. This method has not given a signal yet but it very close in doing so. These charts suggest a bullish outcome for the market. Since the market has been choppy over the last several months an impulse wave should start soon and the impulse wave may be up. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.
For the reason mentioned on first page, the intermediate term picture looks bullish. Above is a Head and Shoulders bottom scenario that may be developing where there is a double Head at the August October lows. The Right Shoulder of this pattern is the June low and the Right Shoulder is the November low. Notice that it appears a smaller Head and Shoulders bottom is formed where the Head is the November low and its Right Shoulder formed at the December low. There is a small divergence in the McClellan Oscillator as well as the Jump above the Neckline yesterday had below average volume and suggest the jump may not be valid. There is an open gap near 122.50 and most open gap gets filled at some point. The bigger picture is bullish, the short term picture is unclear but a pull back to 122.50 range would not surprise us and might actually setup a bullish signal. If this Head and Shoulder pattern plays out it would give an upside target near 1500.
Above is the McClellan Oscillator and Summation index for GDX. The McClellan Oscillator has been showing a positive divergence since November and a bullish sign. The Summation index reached below -1000 (a rare occurrence) and most oversold condition in the last year. A “Rising Wedge” form from October to mid November which had a downside target to the October low and has hit last week. The October low was also a “Selling Climax” day and the “Selling Climax” low was tested last Thursday on lighter volume and then closed above the October low creating a bullish “Spring”. Our view is the low came in last Thursday and an uptrend has started in GDX. The first upside target on GDX is the previous high near 63. The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, January 4, 2012
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is an intermediate term view of the SPX. The top window is the MACD of the TRIN/SPY ratio with a 50 day moving average. We have circled in blue when the bullish and bearish crossover has occurred. Notice to the right it getting close to having a bullish crossover and suggests an intermediate term rally would begin. The second window down is the TRIN/SPY ratio in two different moving averages (the red and blue lines). When there is a wide separation in the red and blue lines then a turn in the market is not far off. Notice that there is a wide separation in the lines now and suggests market is near a turn. If the Red line passes down through the blue line then the turn in the market will be up. This method has not given a signal yet but it very close in doing so. These charts suggest a bullish outcome for the market. Since the market has been choppy over the last several months an impulse wave should start soon and the impulse wave may be up. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.
For the reason mentioned on first page, the intermediate term picture looks bullish. Above is a Head and Shoulders bottom scenario that may be developing where there is a double Head at the August October lows. The Right Shoulder of this pattern is the June low and the Right Shoulder is the November low. Notice that it appears a smaller Head and Shoulders bottom is formed where the Head is the November low and its Right Shoulder formed at the December low. There is a small divergence in the McClellan Oscillator as well as the Jump above the Neckline yesterday had below average volume and suggest the jump may not be valid. There is an open gap near 122.50 and most open gap gets filled at some point. The bigger picture is bullish, the short term picture is unclear but a pull back to 122.50 range would not surprise us and might actually setup a bullish signal. If this Head and Shoulder pattern plays out it would give an upside target near 1500.
Above is the McClellan Oscillator and Summation index for GDX. The McClellan Oscillator has been showing a positive divergence since November and a bullish sign. The Summation index reached below -1000 (a rare occurrence) and most oversold condition in the last year. A “Rising Wedge” form from October to mid November which had a downside target to the October low and has hit last week. The October low was also a “Selling Climax” day and the “Selling Climax” low was tested last Thursday on lighter volume and then closed above the October low creating a bullish “Spring”. Our view is the low came in last Thursday and an uptrend has started in GDX. The first upside target on GDX is the previous high near 63. The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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