Portfolio down 8.5%, Dow down 2.99%, Nasdaq down 6.17%, S&P500 down 3.44% J-Blimps down 8.5%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy down 5.8%, Gorilla Hunters down 11.8%, Gilder2001 down 11.8%, OC-192 down 11.3%.
Record Nasdaq days on the downside
10/19/87 -11.35 %
04/12/00 -9.67
10/20/87 -9.00
10/26/87 -9.00
08/31/98 -8.56
04/03/00 -7.64
01/02/01 – 7.23% Funds lock in profits, Robbie Stephens downgrades EMC, INKT, NTAP, many others. NAPM Index at 43.7% (consensus was 47.1%), the lowest since April 1991 and indicative of a continued contraction in the mfg. sector
12/20/00 – 7.12% FDRY takes down infrastructures with the warning.
04/13/00 -7.02
10/27/97 -7.02
03/12/01 – 6.30% CSCO warns prior period, Barron’s pummeling fiber optics stocks, ERICY warns.
01/05/01 – 6.20% BAC rumors of bad shortfall due to CA utilities and CSCO rumors of missing quarter sent it down.
04/03/01 – 6.17% - ABRA, ITWO, RBAK, AXP, INKT, ENTU, BVSN, warn last night.
03/27/80 -6.15%
03/28/01 – NT and PALM warn the night before sending networkers down double digits.
05/23/00- 5.93%
NYSE Volume: 1.55 bln...Adv: 738...Dec: 2351 Monster volume,
Up Volume 90.02 Down Volume 1103.35 day 2
New Highs 42 New Lows 141 day 1
Nasdaq Volume: 2.54 bln...Adv: 779...Dec: 2984 Capitulation day.
Up Volume 139.69 Down Volume 1811.96 say 2
New Highs 26 New Lows 541 Huge 17 days
Put/Call ratio 0.97 (Range 0.76 to 0.97)
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.
May natural gas $5.11 per million British thermal units. Up 1 cent.
VIX 39.33 up
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Gold ($XAU) 47.79 +1.59 +3.44% Flight from red into yellow.
Collapse of the day
DOT ($DOT) 180.74 -30.06 -14.26% All the tech warnings hit sector.
QQQ at $35 Chart: descending Blocks: 625/680 neg for 2 day. Volume%: 65
One stock
Inktomi (INKT) Down 55% INKT slashing 25 percent of its work force. The company said late Monday it now sees a second-quarter loss of 23 to 25 cents a share vs. the 4-cent a share loss that had been expected by First Call.
Note: I can’t imagine the calls to a fund manager who rode this down.
Portfolio Watch
SCHL and AMAT were green.
ORCL, BRCD, NTAP were down double digits.
Watch List things to watch but not trade
Nokia (NOK) Announcing (eur) 1.5 bln deal with mobile operator Orange to deliver solutions for a European 3G network. As part of the agreement, NOK will provide a bridge-financing package with an estimated value of over (eur) 2 bln
Note: Didn’t help wireless stock one bit.
Finisar Corp (FNSR) Company announces that an affiliate of founder Frank H. Levinson purchased a total of 1.2 million FNSR shares in a series of open market transactions on March 29 and 30. Prior to these purchases, Levinson was the beneficial owner of approx. 41.1 mln FNSR shares or 22% of company's outstanding stock.
Note: This was hammered with the rest.
Ford Motor (F) Company announces that March U.S. sales declined 13% from the same month a year ago; also says Ford is reducing its previously announced second quarter North American production plan by 20,000 units to 1,230,000 cars and trucks, primarily reflecting the elimination of one of three shifts of production at the Michigan Truck Plant;
Note: Ford troubles affects all of the manufacturers.
Rational Sftwr (RATL) Company warns for Q4; sees EPS of $0.20-0.22; current EPS estimate is $0.22; expects revenues between $240 and $245 mln. The company also announced that it would reduce its workforce by approximately 10%, or a total of approximately 400 positions;
Note: Not surprising.
Quote of the Day
"There's a lot of anxiety. Until recently, drug and natural gas companies had been holding up but it's now almost impossible to find areas of the market immune to the selling. Investors are [dumping] the most liquid names to pay for margin calls," remarked Mike Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke. "We're seeing the unraveling of the massive building in capital equipment spending during the late 1990s. Time is a key factor [in the healing process]," Sheldon conceded.
Note: Nothing is a safe except cash. At least we have low inflation.
Summary
Other techs like KANA, BBSW, KEYN also warned.
Put/call and VIX signaling a short term bottom.
I see Greenspan intervening in the next two weeks. Economic news is poor and No one wants in the market.
Jack
