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Friday, 11/11/2011 5:06:57 PM

Friday, November 11, 2011 5:06:57 PM

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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/09/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, November 9, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat




The SPY analysis is a little fuzzy and the QQQ seems to be giving a better clue of what to expect and is why we are looking at this index. There was a “Three Drives to a Top” pattern that formed in August to September and had a target to where the pattern began which came in near 50 and was met. This “Three Drives to a Top” came down in an ABC pattern. A smaller “Three Drives to a Top” may have formed In October and an ABC may have form where the “C” leg down may have started today. The QQQ has a large open gap near 55 and most large Open gaps get filled and are one of the reason we where expecting another down-leg. Also the McClellan Oscillator did show a negative divergence at yesterday’s high and a bearish sign. Also I might add that at the October 26 and November 1 low the McClellan Oscillator showed a divergence that supported for the downtrend to continue. Since the 100 day average of the TRIN hit 1.50 range (which implies an intermediate term low formed) we will take long positions only. We will look for a bullish setup for the next low, possibly near the 117 on the SPY which is where a gap lies open. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.




Above is the VIX/TICK ratio dating back 18 months. Highs have been found in the market when the VIX/TICK ratio trades above .5 or below -.5. The VIX/TICK ratio pushed more negative last week with a closing reading of -.09 then popped up Friday and since entered the bearish level again yesterday. Sometimes bearish readings in the VIX/TICK ratio can lead a high in the market several days and appears that was the case for current timeframe. Of the last seven signals by the VIX/TICK ratio only one failed (back in October 2010). The market has been running into resistance near the Neckline of a Head and Shoulders top since late October and with the VIX/TICK ratio giving bearish signs, it appears the Neckline resistance will hold. We thought the SPY may pull back and fill the gap near 117 and still could be the case. In general the bigger trend appears up (100 day TRIN reached bullish level near 1.50) and if the SPY pulls back to the 117 gap level we will look for a bullish setup. For now we will remain flat.




Above is the daily GDX chart. On Monday’s report, we said, “For the last couple of days the GDX has been testing the gap level of September 22 on much lighter volume. Normally testing a gap on lighter volume shows the gap has resistance and therefore GDX may stall near current levels.” It does appear GDX has stalled and a pull back to support is possible. Good support lies near 58 and we will look for a bullish setup there. We are very bullish on GDX on the larger time frames as the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio suggests GDX could double over the next year or so. For short term we will look for a bullish setup near 58.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.


Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!

Be Lucky, Chichi2

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