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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/02/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, November 2, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



Above is our VIX/TICK ratio that dates back to late 2007. We showed this chart yesterday. When this ratio reaches above .5 or below -.5 a high in the market is anticipated. The red lines showed successes and blue lines failures. This ratio entered the bearish level late last week and is in more bearish level today with a closing reading of -.9. Notice that it gave a sell signal near the Neckline resistance and remains on a sell signal. Not all indicators work all the time and the VIX/TICK could produce a failure here, but previous deep retracement signals like this have been successful. The window at the bottom is the TICK/VIX ratio and readings near -5 are bullish of which its not near this level right now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.





Here is the shorter term time frame of the VIX/TICK ratio dating back 9 months. You can see that the VIX/TICK ratio pushing more negative today with a closing reading of -.09. Notice the sell signal near the Neckline of the larger Head and Shoulder stop where the May high was the Head. What may be forming short term is a Smaller Head and Shoulder top where the Head is the October 27 high. The Right shoulder is forming now and may complete with today’s trading to as late as Friday’s trading. This Smaller Head and Shoulders top would give a downside target near 117 on the SPY which is also where an Open Gap lies. We have found most open gaps get filled at some point. In general the bigger trend appears up (100 day TRIN reached bullish level near 1.50) and if the SPY pulls back to the 117 gap level we will look for a bullish setup. For now we will remain flat.





Above is the Monthly chart of the XAU/GOLD ratio updated to tonight’s close. The month of October ended Monday and the Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closed above 20 and a bullish monthly signal has been triggered for the XAU gold stocks. The signal that was triggered Monday is a two part signal. The first part of the two part signal requires that the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio hit 35 or lower; and in September the RSI reached 29.95. The second part of the signal is that the Monthly Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio fall below 20 and a close above 20 triggered the buy signal which was met Monday. We also have done this type bullish setup for the monthly HUI/GOLD; GDX/GOLD and SPTGD/GOLD and all have triggered bullish signals where the monthly slow stochastics have turned up and closed above 20. Since this signal is on a monthly timeframe we expect this signal will be in force over the next 12 months or so. Some of the previous signals of this type have lead to over 100% gains in the gold indexes over the life of the signal.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.