The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/28/11)_TY_George
* Wednesday, September 28, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested at some point. We have found that the McClellan Oscillator will form a divergence (positive divergence for bottoms and negative divergence at top) and right now there is no divergence and suggests today’s decline may continue. In general we are looking for a bullish signal to develop on the Test of the August 9 low near 1100 or a little below. On that potential test, most likely the 100 day average of the TRIN would be pushed to 1.45 range and signal an intermediate term low. Current 100 day TRIN is coming in at 1.43 an interring the bullish intermediate term level. On today’s decline the Trin closed at 5.39 which predict a low in the next couple of days. If the SPX reaches the 8/9 low near 1100 in the next couple of days then that would add to the bullish setup. Stay flat for now.
Longer term indicators are showing bullish signs. The 100 day average of the TRIN near 1.40 and higher appear near intermediate term lows and this reading closed today at 1.43 and in the bullish intermediate term level. When the 100 day moving average of the TRIN starts to trend down then that implies the bottom has been seen and the uptrend in the market has started and right now the 100 day average of the TRIN is still trending higher. The equity put/call ratio (CPCE) on a 15 day moving average above .8 also have appeared near intermediate term low and this level was hit at the August low. The 15 day moving average of the Total put/call ratio (CPC) readings above 1.2 is bullish intermediate term which was also hit in August. Doesn’t appear an extended down leg is beginning but rather an intermediate term low is close to completing. Still looking for a test of the 8/9 low near 1100 on SPX which may complete the bottoming process. Staying flat for now.
Above is the weekly chart of the ETF for Gold (GLD). Bottoms form in GLD when the Weekly RSI hits near 50 (current weekly RSI reading is 48.97) when the weekly mid Bollinger bands are in an uptrend (like now). Also GLD did hit our support level which was the previous high in June and July near the 160 to 155 range. GLD could back and fill a bit but in general GLD has hit support and another uptrend should start from here. If you haven’t bought GLD yet this area should be near the low, unfortunately we bought early but are still expecting GLD to break news highs on the next rally phase. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01- stopped at 59.50 for gain 4.4%. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, September 28, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested at some point. We have found that the McClellan Oscillator will form a divergence (positive divergence for bottoms and negative divergence at top) and right now there is no divergence and suggests today’s decline may continue. In general we are looking for a bullish signal to develop on the Test of the August 9 low near 1100 or a little below. On that potential test, most likely the 100 day average of the TRIN would be pushed to 1.45 range and signal an intermediate term low. Current 100 day TRIN is coming in at 1.43 an interring the bullish intermediate term level. On today’s decline the Trin closed at 5.39 which predict a low in the next couple of days. If the SPX reaches the 8/9 low near 1100 in the next couple of days then that would add to the bullish setup. Stay flat for now.
Longer term indicators are showing bullish signs. The 100 day average of the TRIN near 1.40 and higher appear near intermediate term lows and this reading closed today at 1.43 and in the bullish intermediate term level. When the 100 day moving average of the TRIN starts to trend down then that implies the bottom has been seen and the uptrend in the market has started and right now the 100 day average of the TRIN is still trending higher. The equity put/call ratio (CPCE) on a 15 day moving average above .8 also have appeared near intermediate term low and this level was hit at the August low. The 15 day moving average of the Total put/call ratio (CPC) readings above 1.2 is bullish intermediate term which was also hit in August. Doesn’t appear an extended down leg is beginning but rather an intermediate term low is close to completing. Still looking for a test of the 8/9 low near 1100 on SPX which may complete the bottoming process. Staying flat for now.
Above is the weekly chart of the ETF for Gold (GLD). Bottoms form in GLD when the Weekly RSI hits near 50 (current weekly RSI reading is 48.97) when the weekly mid Bollinger bands are in an uptrend (like now). Also GLD did hit our support level which was the previous high in June and July near the 160 to 155 range. GLD could back and fill a bit but in general GLD has hit support and another uptrend should start from here. If you haven’t bought GLD yet this area should be near the low, unfortunately we bought early but are still expecting GLD to break news highs on the next rally phase. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01- stopped at 59.50 for gain 4.4%. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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