Hi Praveen,
I certainly would agree that stocks receiving favorable coverage in articles are likely to be much higher by the time you read it. The long lead time before an article is written and is published and distributed is only part of the problem.
I haven't read Forbes in a while, though I did recently add it to my Kindle subscriptions, so I will check it out. However, I'm a sceptic as to columnist reccomendations as well. There is only one motivating factor to recommend good stocks, and that is the hope that a reader will be impressed by the recommendations, and become a client.
On the other hand, suppose you are already one of his/her clients. If they see a great prospect, but haven't finished buying all of the shares they want, wouldn't they be harming your interests, but disclosing the stock now? On the other hand, what if they had a large position in a stock that had produced outsized gains for them? If they wanted to trim that position, wouldn't it be great to write about what a great stock it is. With the subsequent runup, the shares could be sold. It would not surprise me if some hedge funds are already playing this.
For a long term investor, this might not be so bad, as over the long haul, buying the shares for a buck or two more dollars, might not be a disaster, particularly, if more shares are added on declines. But for those, looking to see quick profitable trades, these recommended issues are probably not promising.
Now I haven't actually tested this thesis, it just appears logical. HOwever, I did read an analysis of Wall Street Week recommendations some years ago, and it supported the thesis.
In general, the ideal contrarian prospect is a stock, no one follows, no one reads about, it's off the radar screen. Or, it's a well known stock that has cratered. Everyone knows it's history. Shareholders who owned it and lost big, before selling, won't consider rebuying it. It's a leper. Some of the lepers pass over to the final resting place for spent corporations, but many do in fact recover, and can be great investments.
