InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 0
Posts 40
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 01/09/2010

Re: None

Saturday, 07/31/2010 6:48:58 PM

Saturday, July 31, 2010 6:48:58 PM

Post# of 197
Mid-Year update

Note the sales trend:

2008 $0.15M
2009: $3.2M
2010 $12.7M (so far)

IF VFCT sells 10 THORS for $6M each, the 2010 sales will be at least $72.7M

Assuming a low 10% gross profit that falls to the bottom line with the offsets for prior losses results in a $0.12 EPS.

Taser International, about the same size of company and in the same industry segment, has a forward PE of 29.3. Under the same circumstances, VLYF stock would be $3.60.

The real change is in 2011.

IF they sell 10 THORS/month. That is 120 X $6M = $720M in sales!

Further assume a modest 25% GP (Taser Int’l is at 61%).

That then results in gross earnings of $240M, most of which will be net because of the prior year losses.

With 59.2M fully diluted shares, that results in an EPS of $4.05.

At the market segment average PE of 14.1 that results in a stock price of $57.16.

At Taser Int’l’s PE, that would result in a stock price of $118.78

And that doesn’t count any sales for ODIN or LOKI, fly wheels and whatever else these guys are pulling out of their Russian hat.

With only 15M shares available and with the massive potential of VLYF, a PE of 29.3 could be VERY LOW. Especially if/when there is ever a container incident any where in the world.

Of course this projection has an IF but given the progress this year, I believe they will be announcing multiple-unit THOR sales soon.

Add more THOR sales, a few dozen ODINs and LOKIs, double the fly wheel sales, and a more realistic GPM – especially since there is no competition – and the numbers literally go crazy.

Just like what LLNL said a few years ago.

Can anybody find fault with this?

Comments?

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.