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Re: was sheepdog post# 12953

Thursday, 12/31/2009 2:39:13 PM

Thursday, December 31, 2009 2:39:13 PM

Post# of 47295
All should read!

That's a Yes & NO.

I TRY NOT to. But sometimes have in the past.

You see I have this board to teach, not feed!

Usually if I post something I'm actually in, it's because it shows some TA lesson, Chart pattern or Market cycle lesson, I want to stress.

Which brings up a subject I have not covered since returning to the board.

Market cycles. In pennyland I'd call this stock price cycle. ALL should be aware of this!!!

Lets see if I can give a short blurb about stock price cycles.

Many (most) penny plays start with Accumulation. You may have read about this here earlier. I posted about HESG being a 10X play ready to happen. The accumulation is seen with CMF strong buying or selling with little or no increase in price.

Next you have the Markup stage. It's when whoever was been accumulating, sells into a RUN.

This is when all the herd minded retail message boards, start hitting the IHUB top board stats. Believers read & post every aspect of the story!! Congratulating each other, on being so smart in believing the story.

Next comes the Distribution stage. This is when the peak or exhaustion point is seen, in the run. Retail is on edge. Wanting MORE, but knowing there is a limit.

EMOTION drives the mind! BAD

The distribution stage is where you become a smart trader or dumb bag holder. Just can't give up the idea, you've been right, so you will continue to be right! LEARN to SELL !!!

The last stage of the Stock Price cycle is the markdown stage. (RETRACE)

Watching this you hope for a smooth logical move to 50% FIBs. If this happens, the stock has a chance to continue. If it falls below the 61% FIBs line it usually hits 100% retrace, with bag holder still posting about it for months!!! HESG is one of the resent examples, which I have seen many many time.

As a Caution to readers I'll get myself in trouble with some readers which are in the distribution stage of 2 stocks covered here recently.

JBII & EXPU. IMO both are about to retrace and strongly! Experience tells this. Learn to sell! Preserve capital, you can always get back in if it doesn't break 61% . Sidelines are better then hoping!! Think about it! Long & strong vs. re-enter lower?

Recap;
Market cycle
Stock Price cycle
-------------
Accumulation (Play set up)
Markup (Play Run)
Distribution (Play peak)
Markdown (Play retrace)

If it marks down below 61% Please learn to sell !!!! Take your hold long and strong mindset and sell for a loss. It will only get worst.
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Here is one of the IHUB top read boards TODAY!

As you can see, Accumulation strong CMF, little PPs change, Markup, strong 3 day run, Distribution, Peak & retrace, Markdown, 61% Fibs broken. "The Cycle", it's almost completed !!

Learn from it!! Happens VERY often!
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