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Re: traderdogzz post# 18298

Friday, 06/05/2009 9:21:15 AM

Friday, June 05, 2009 9:21:15 AM

Post# of 18348
FRIDAY MORNING EXTREME MARKET EVETS
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Key Market Events Reports and Commentary for Friday

Friday, June 5, 2009 8:16 AM

From:
"INO.com Morning" <morning@ino.com>

F R I D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 5, 2009
8:30 AM ET. May Employment Report

Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -525K; previous -539K)

Unemployment Rate (expected 9.2%; previous 8.9%)

Average Hourly Earnings (previous 18.51)

Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1)

Manufacturing Payrolls (previous -149K)

Overall Workweek (previous 33.2)

Overall Workweek Net Change (previous 0)

Service Producing Payrolls (previous -269K)

3:00 PM ET. April Consumer Credit, in dollars (expected -7B; previous -11.1B)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1566.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1410.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1497.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1566.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1444.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1410.57. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 4.25 pts. at 1497.25 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-
decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 910.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 920.71. Second support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 910.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.80 pts. at 944.30 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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June T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's decline, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 114-15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119-20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117-10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119-20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 115-16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 114-15. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
July crude oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 69.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.82.
July heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 192.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 181.25. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 192.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 169.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.64.
July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 212.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 198.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 212.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 189.31. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.37.
July Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690. If July extends this week's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.053. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.550. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500. CURRENCIES

The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this spring's decline but remains below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.69. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.84. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55.
The June Euro was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 140.565. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.711 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, December's high crossing at 145.900 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 143.380. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 145.900. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140.977. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.711.

The June British Pound was lower overnight and trading below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6156 signaling that a short-term top appears to have been posted with Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5759 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-
2009 decline crossing at 1.6733 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.6665. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1.6733. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.6017. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5759.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range below the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at .9405. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9170 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this spring's rally, December's high crossing at .9552 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .9443. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .9552. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9304. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9170.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this spring's rally, the 75% retracement level of the May-March decline crossing at 95.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.73. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 95.26. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 89.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.44.
The June Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .10025 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .10657 would renew the rally off April's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10657. Second resistance is March's high crossing at .10703. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .10285. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10025.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
August gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 949.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 1008.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 992.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1008.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 961.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 949.80.
July silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.714 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 75% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 17.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 16.250. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 17.125. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 15.065. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.714.
July copper was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates around the 38% retracement level of the 2008-decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 260.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 235.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 260.92. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 221.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.02. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

SOFTS: July sugar closed up 38 points at 15.27 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today as bulls quickly recovered from solid downside pressure on Wednesday. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the sugar futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Sugar bulls do still have the near-term technical advantage.
July coffee closed up 80 points at 139.15 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the coffee futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. The coffee bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
July cocoa closed down $14 at $2,720 today. Prices closed near the session high. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the cocoa futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Yet, cocoa sold off, which is a bearish clue. Cocoa bulls do still have the near-term technical advantage.
July cotton closed up 104 points at 56.88 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today on a recovery from big losses Wednesday. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the cotton futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker.

July orange juice closed down 135 points at $.9150. Prices closed nearer the session low today. More profit taking was featured again today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the FCOJ futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Yet, FCOJ sold off today, which is a bearish clue. FCOJ bulls still have the near-term technical advantage, but are fading a bit.
July lumber futures closed up the $10.00 limit at $211.00 today. Prices hit another fresh 4.5-month high today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the sugar futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

July corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 25% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 4.50. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.30 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.30 1/4. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.30.
July wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12 1/2 would confirm that a spring high has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 7.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 6.59 1/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6.77. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 6.14 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 18 1/4-cents at 6.90.

July Kansas City Wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's huge decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.59 1/4 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-
decline crossing at 7.54 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7.27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 7.54 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.59 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.39 1/2 would confirm that a spring high has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 8.11 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.65 3/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7.97 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 7.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.93.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
July soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.68 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12.36 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.62. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 11.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.68 1/4.
July soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 75% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 386.20. The low-range overnight close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 373.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 87% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 410.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 399.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 410.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 377.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 373.50.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 39.92. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a double top with May's high might be forming. If July extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 45.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 36.75 would confirm that an important top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 40.58. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 45.54. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.91. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 36.75. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed up $0.22 at $81.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh six-month low early on. More tepid short covering in a bear market was featured today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the cattle futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Cattle futures bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.42 at $96.55 today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored a mildly bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Short covering in a bear market was featured today. Still, serious chart damage has occurred this week. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
August lean hogs closed down $0.32 at $62.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a fresh contract low close today. Very bearish cash hog market fundamentals are weighing on hog futures. While serious chart damage has occurred recently, the big "washout" type price move that has occurred in such short order is suggestive of a market bottom being close at hand.
July pork bellies closed down the $3.00 limit at $62.95 today. Prices again gapped lower on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh contract low today. Bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. However, the market is now short-
term oversold, technically.
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