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Re: ZoZoStockWatch post# 130

Thursday, 05/07/2009 12:39:43 PM

Thursday, May 07, 2009 12:39:43 PM

Post# of 185
Land, Holistic Moving Average Price Analysis does not require drawn-in channel lines in most cases. It is a fluid method depending primarily on moving average lines. In a few instances, there may be a need for a more mechanical straight line (for example, the one drawn to maximize profits when price is [> 10] percent above the 20-day ma. This particular method can be written into software with reasonable ease.

The superiority of this method is its deceptive simplicity. It slices and dices price with consistent accuracy based on laws of price.

Here is a major law of price:
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For a price to trend up, it must be above a given moving average while the moving average is pointing up or turning up.
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Practical application: Buy as close to a cross up as possible.

It's fascinating. This law can be used on any line from the 8-day to the 400-day ma. The lower the moving average, the closer you are to the noise of the market and the higher the returns assuming you trade with accuracy.

The practical benefit of this law is that you stop trying to guess what the market is going to do. All you know is that price has crossed up and the moving average is turning up or is sloping up. Then you hold until the signal reverses.

Absolutely simple and something we can automate efficiently. There will be false starts, slippage, and all of that. But it pays and pays and pays.

In one test this week using DDM and DXD over the last 12 months, I hit 167 percent--accounting for false starts and generously allowing for slippage (and without counting any compounding effect). I'm not reporting this number formally just yet. Would like to run a more scientific test.

Ted

Strip price to the barest data that tells us BUY, HOLD, or SELL.

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