Abet Chichi2

[chichi2]

01/13/09_MajorMoves by Chi2

All CHARTs in this Document are Updated every time you Open this Document or a URL.
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WHERE ARE WE ?
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ON ALERT all traders of ALL STOCKS including PRECIOUS METALS

Tuesday, January 13, 2009, there were at EOD, Seven (7) of 20 possible MajorMoves among Major Sectors and General Indices.

Today's Big Happening, is it was a day of "Indecision", feeling for a Temp Bottom
Essentially, few changes in MM's, some Indices and Sectors were near Flat ! We are pausing near or at the Beginning of the most Recent Run Up as called yesterday.

Regard McClellan Charts, I am going to send this our early so I have not seen them yet for Jan13, but seeing the Indices and Sector charts, I would suspect we will get ALERTS tonight with McClellan Oscillators probably giving Small Change Signals. In any case I suspect we will have our fill of many Major Moves within the Next Two Trading days. My "suspect" call that follows, is the same as I have stuck to the last few days, it will be Up.

I believe we are presently in a Short-Term Temporary Correction, gaining breathing room, to continuing to possibly fulfilling AmateurInvestor's Forecasts, altho modified.

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First, Be sure you have READ
Amateur Investor's Latest Forecast, dated Saturday, Jan 10, 2009
Showing their most recent modified eWave analysis and forecast.
Reflecting Major eWave 5 (Down) has not been Completed.

Http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Jan_10_09.htm

Second,
I believe the Turn Up in this recent Run Down will occur on or before, the Triple or Quadruple Bottom Label, as shown in the

60minCharts SPY,DIA,QQQQ with equivalent of Daily EMA50 & EMA20 labelled.

Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34767916

Third,
I believe Major eWave 4 will then continue Up to Resistance Level
RESISTANCE (if Major eWave 4 continues_to_rise_for_rest_of_Month,
Amateur Investors does not expect these Indices to rise above these Resistance Levels)

 
                20 Week EMA        38.2% Retracement 
 $INDU =        near 9350             Approx 9600               
 $SPX  =        around 990              1008 
  Nasdaq =       near 1750            about 1775    
 .

Fourth,
then see my very New Charts. Each of these reflecting Amateur Investor and my modified Thoughts.


My 6 New Charts are Daily, with major eWaves annotated with Wave 2, 3, 4 (todate) for:
$INDU, $XII, $SPX, $OEX, $COMPQ (nasdaq), QQQQ each with Weekly EMA20

Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34767988

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BE VERY ALERT
If eWavers are Correct, When Major eWave 5 starts can be a very Negative Stock Market.

"Stock Market Crash Count Wave Four Triangle" By: Mike_Shedlock - Jan 09, 2009 - 05:26 PM" posted by George

The Market Oracle

The S&P 500 is in a wave 4. Please see S&P 500 Crash Count if you are new to this discussion. It is the very nature of waves 4's to morph, and morph it has. Over the past month the preferred count has changed at least 3 times. If you chose to play waves 4's it is best to be nimble.
Here is yet another interpretation of where we are.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34739338
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GOLD & SILVER too are in Difficulty see below, 2 important posts by George

Rebalancing causing major Liquidation of Metals

"ReBalancing Action" By John Nadler - 09 Jan 2009 at 04:15 PM Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34739266

"Gold and Silver on Sell Signals" By John Chan 01/09 http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34739017

THERE are ADDITIONAL PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS after my signature.

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CRUDE OIL Feb 2009 Futures = .


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Dollar needs to drop in Deflationary action of CPI See Futures Short-Term chart.


** US Dollar if US Dollar starts Continuous Dn Trend, it is a sign Deleveraging is over.
We are awaiting the Fact. Dollar going Up shows Lack of Deleveraging.

See Godnwv's Dollar Forecast in US Dollar 25 yr Monthly chart in Section after my signature.



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Major Bank Index ($BKX) and Regional Bank Index (KRE)


Federal Capital Regional Banks= announced in Treasury Program 10/29/08
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33182931

Federal Capital Commercial Banks: WFC,BAC,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK
These Banks ranged between Up 5% to Dn 6%.

WFC,WB,BAC,MER,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK See Daily 3 Month Charts.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32885960
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Today, Two (7) of Eleven General Indices made MajorMoves: All Up
Up 1% IWM, $MID.

Click URL for charts, includes
EMA20,EMA50,EMA100,EMA150,2008 Closing Bottoms(red-dashed), intra-day Bottoms(blue)
INDU,DIA,SPX,SPY,OEX,MID,IWM,NAS,NDX,QQQQ,XII See Daily 3 month Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34726227
.
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Five (5) of Nine MAJOR SECTORS made MajorMoves 2 Up and 3 Dn

Up 2% Energy; Up 1% Financials;
Dn 1% Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Utilities.

See Writeup and Sector Charts (10min 2 Day and Daily 3 Month Charts, side_by_side)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34319138

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EXCERPTS from John Mauldin Article posted Jan 09, 2009

"Deflation has the potential to get some very real traction going forward. Why? Because not just in the US, but all over the world, we built too much of almost everything. Too many houses, too many manufacturing plants, too many retail stores -- and just too much stuff."
"In the US, capacity utilization is falling rapidly. Typically, if we produce "stuff" (cars, food, lumber, etc.) in the range of 80% of potential capacity, that is considered to be a good economy. Capacity utilization has been dropping for some time and is down below 75% for all industries, but in many industries is close to 70%. And the clear trend when looking at ISM manufacturing statistics is that it has a lot further to fall.".
"That means industries have no pricing power, as they can make a lot more "stuff" than they can sell. And when demand due to the recession drops as well, prices fall as producers try to stay in business."



Predictions 2009 by John Mauldin 01/09

"Let's close with some predictions. Ten out of ten analysts in the recent Barron's forecast saw stock prices rising 10-20% this year. For reasons I outlined last week, I think we could see a tradable rally in the next few months, but at the very least test the lows this summer, if not set new lows. Earnings are going to be far worse than any analyst's projections I have seen. And earnings drive stock prices.

Further, this recession is going to be the longest in anyone's memory. It is going to seem like it is never going to end (it will, I promise), and more and more investors are just going to give up on stocks. The buy and hold for the long run mantra is wearing thin. In inflation-adjusted terms, the stock market is about where it was in 1973! If you reinvested dividends, that gets you to 1991 (again, inflation-adjusted). It takes a lot of buying to make a bull market. It only takes an absence of buying to make a bear market.

Could we get a rally after the summer or fall lows? Sure. And it could be a good one. A lot depends on how fast the stimulus kicks in and whether it really has an effect. Will the Fed really buy large-cap corporate debt? I hope we can see something like a 1974 bottom in stocks develop.

I think the correlation between the US stock market, other developed markets, and emerging markets is close to one. I prefer to stand aside until the US economy has a clear direction and we can see whether the stimulus actually works. And then we can look at the world economy. I won't embarrass them by naming names, but those who argued for "decoupling" between the US and the rest of the world are not looking good. Someday, but not this decade.

I would be a buyer of quality bonds, both corporate and municipal. The key is to have a bond analyst who knows what they are doing and not just looking at ratings. There are some real values in the bond market today.

I would not be a buyer of US government debt. Treasuries, if not in a mini-bubble, have little upside potential and just don't yield enough. Why would I hold a ten-year treasury for 2.39%? I like TIPS at these prices. TIPS are pricing in deflation for ten years and, as I outlined above, I don't think the Fed will allow deflation to take hold.

With all the massive printing of money, you would think I expect the dollar to crash. I don't. The question is, what will it fall against? The euro? Really? The pound is better valued, but England and Europe are going to have to cut rates and apply massive stimulus as well. Every developed country will have problems. I can see holding Canadian, Australian, and other commodity-country currencies, but the leverage needed to make it a reasonable investment potential is too risky for individuals.

I can't see the Japanese letting the yen get too much stronger. China seems to want to halt the rise of the yuan, and the rest of Asia will devalue their currencies to maintain whatever they think of as a competitive advantage. Longer term, I like Asian currencies.

After a year of bouncing around, gold may be poised to rise against all major currencies. We could easily see new highs in the next year.

I think oil is going lower (and maybe much lower -- can you say $1-a-gallon gas?) in the near term. As I have written about before, oil is now in the steepest contango on record. That means oil is cheap today and more expensive in a few months. That is not normal. Oil is bidding for storage. You can make 20-25% on your money in a few months if you can buy oil and find somewhere to store it. At least 25 supertankers have been leased to store oil, and sources say another ten are being bid for. It remains to be seen if OPEC can really cut enough to make a difference in the near term.

As for the other metals, I think it is quite likely copper and its industrial allies will fall in price at least for the near term, until production can be cut and demand in Asia begin to rise again. I would not be a buyer of long-only commodity funds for the near term. Someday the bull market in commodities will return, but not until Asian demand picks up.

The risks to my forecasts are quite clear. The stimulus could happen quicker and be more effective than I think, and the economy and the markets could surprise to the upside. On the other hand, and more scarily, the Fed could be pushing on a string in a liquidity trap and the economy and markets could get hit harder, along with most assets."


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DEFLATION is the Fight. Maintain a Protective Coat, for Years to overcome.

Nouriel Roubini BusinessWeek Interview by Maria Bartiroma 01/07/09 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34740355

Nouriel Roubini for "Foreign Policy" 01/07 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34636058

Bloomberg Editor's Video Picks Be sure Each Day to OPEN this, and read TITLES.
Http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

"Week in Review" by thechartpatterntrader.com Maurice N. Walker 01/10/09 posted by George who says "Excellent detailed charts and extensive commentary update".
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34738960

"Snapshot of updated to 01/12 close of Carl Swenlin's $SPX= PMO ITBM ITVM recreated
and a $SPX= CVO STVO VTO chart." Updated, Recreated and posted by Myself °¿°
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34770975


GLOSSARY
(these Indicators are available for-fee from Decisionpoint.com Carl Swenlin's Chart Service)

PMO http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/PMO.html

ITBM http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/AboutITBM.html

ITVM http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/AboutITVM.html

OBV Indicator Set (CVI/STVO/VTO) http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/OBV_Indicators.html

Now you can analyse Carl Swenlin's Updated URL for yourself, it is worth your learning. Thanks to Myself °¿°

Think Very Long and Wisely,
Chichi2

In psychoanalysis, the PSYCHE refers to the forces in an individual that influence thought, behavior and personality.



Footnote (1) Democracy in America 1835 Vol I, 1840 Vol II by Alexis de Tocqueville
Http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/toc_indx.html

Per AI 01/10/2009
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Jan_10_09.htm

Per AI 01/03/2009
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Jan_3_09.htm

Per AI 12/16 See $SPX history charts as projections..
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Mid_Week_Analysis_Dec_16_08.htm


$SPX Trend chart

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GOLD_&_SILVER Daily Stock charts since_11/15/08 GDX_SLV__AUY,GFI,GG,HL,HMY,KGC,NEM,PAL,SLW,SSRI
And Gold, Silver, Paladium Daily COMMODITIES charts

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34726426

GOLD STRENGTH =GolDollar Index and GTU (Gold Trust Closed-End Fund) to 01/08/09 close w/ Analysis by Carl Swenlin Posted 01/09 by George.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34714009

b]Snapshot of GTU (Gold Trust Closed-End Fund) to 01/12/09 close posted by Myself °¿° w/ PMO etc recreated to 01/12/09
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34770975

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You need read no further, unless you seek more detail or charts.
You will need to Click URLs to see most Charts.
The Charts in the following Sections, First cover in Detail this Day's Action.
Then later toward the last Section, the Charts looks backwards for predicting Forward.
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charts= some High Dividend Stks APL+EPD+ETP+KMP+MMP+MWE+OKS+PAA+TNH+TPP+TYG+TYY
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=APL+EPD+ETP+KMP+MMP+MWE+OKS+PAA+TNH+TPP+TYG+TYY&d=t

Related Article "Investors Eye the Big Dividends on Offer from MLPs" 12/8
http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/081208/1578_id.html?.v=1
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VOLUME - Watch 50 simple moving average.
(see chart above for confirmation of overall Total NYSE volumes, and this URL showing Yahoos NYSE composite volume)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETV.N


** Advances & Declines and related Volumes.
Click on URL, then Scroll Down ½ Page to see them.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/advances?u

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CHARTS of several McCLELLAN OSCILLATORS and SUMMATION Charts

McClellan Charts are based on Advances and Declines. We track their Oscillators (a combining of the Advances and Declines) and their Cumulatives which are called Summations.
These moves give us intelligence on the Moves of General Indices.

See my Charts, Live Below.

Below are Decision Point --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts

NASDAQ
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html


Below are Chichi2 annotated --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts








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** General Market Indices See 10min Interval Charts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32592605

** General Sectors: See 10min Interval Charts
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32598682

** US Government Placed Capital in BAC,JPM,WFC,C,GS,MS,MER,STT,BK,BCS
** FOREIGN Governments Placed Capital in BCS,CS,DB see 10min Interval Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32849538

** Markets includes General, Crude, Gold, CRB, and US Dollar
see headings http://www.ino.com/

** Metals (pick your poison) http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
See Metals Indices and Metals Stocks Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32573741

** US Dollar if US Dollar starts Continuous Dn Trend, it is a sign Deleveraging is over.


$USD MONTHLY (25 yr): Dollar Dropping to Continue per Forecast.
by GODNWV


** Bonds Rates Rise, if Prices drop. See Rate Charts
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32563220
"Be wary of U.S. Treasury Bonds in 2009!" by Sy Harding 01/02 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34547652


Volatility Indicators

StockTiming.com "$VIX= Fear and Confidence Indicator" 12/15 as posted by George Recommended Read, click URL
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34192775

      ----------  2008  Records   ---------- 
 Closing     VIX  80.06   VXO   85.99    VXN  82.39 
 Intra-day   VIX  89.13   VXO  103.41    VXN  86.52 
 

See Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33100319

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Below are Extras. Followed by Chart URLs.
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"How Good are Professional Market/Stock Forecasters Forecasts?" 12/23 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34377588

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Education: More on Sector Trading. My Trading Platform as do many Trading Platforms has "Sectors and Stocks in a Tree Structure". Many times during the day I go there, See Sectors, it shows me the % Gains or % Losses of each Sector. I click on the Sector I am interested in, it then shows me the stocks in that Sector, I can see each of their Tickers and again their % gain or % loss. I can then pick which Stock I am interested in. And so on.

Sector Trading is Good, starting point.

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Bill McLaren 12/10 comments on $SPX, SoyBeans, and $CRB charts posted by George
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34084702

Bill McLaren 12/19 comments on $SPX now and 1937 charts posted by George
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34298976

$CRB - Commodity Index Chart and Words by Godnwv


"Goldman slashes 2009 commodity price forecasts" 12/12 9:25am posted by Bob3
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34149756

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A LONGER RANGE PERSPECTIVE= "InstitutionalIndex"(XII), then_INDU,SPX,OEX,NAS,NDX with some Troughs and Peaks marked
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803038

LONGEST RANGE PERSPECTIVES INDU,SPX,OEX,NDX with 1987
10/27 was Recent Bottom, Retracement (10/28) was to Top of 1987 Blue Line channel marked
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803081

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